Ukraine War

[JohnDe]

Historian Anne Applebaum on how Russia's war in Ukraine will end​

Anne Applebaum is a Pulitzer Prize-winning historian and political analyst who writes for the Atlantic. She has written extensively about central and eastern Europe. DW's Teri Schulz asked her for her asessment of what the geopolitical consequences of Russia's War in Ukraine are, and how she thinks it will end.

 

[Telamelo]

I see an unfortunate escalation & potential WW3 looming or already in it's infancy here as Russia's sovereignty on the line (stated by Putin in his speech yesterday) - Putin will never ever back away or back down - If by sheer chance Russia happens to eventually go down/loses.. Putin will ensure to take the whole West/NATO alliance down with him - no winner's here in a nuclear WW3

 

[Craton]

That original involvement happened under Obama. Putin thought Biden was weak.

If you mean Crimea et al, true.

Still, Trump and Putin, what a team!

From the LA Times 21 March 2022

News Analysis: Trump delayed weapons to Ukraine and praised Putin. Did that trigger war?​

WASHINGTON —
The last time (and maybe the first time) most Americans heard of Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president was at the center of a scandal that would lead to the impeachment of then-President Trump.

Trump in 2019 threatened to hold up weapons deliveries to Ukraine — caught even then in a simmering war with Russian proxies — unless Zelensky helped him dig up political dirt on rival Joe Biden.

Today, the shadow of that scandal lingers. How much did Trump’s toying with Ukraine, cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin and, ultimately, Trump’s acquittal on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress influence Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine?

Putin had already bitten off bits of Ukraine with the illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, and a swath of neighboring Georgia six years earlier. But nothing compared with the massive attack he launched across Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, on Feb. 24.

Numerous experts and current and former officials say Putin was emboldened by the Trump years. The former KGB officer turned president ably manipulated Trump into publicly backing his denials of having interfered — to Trump’s benefit — in U.S. elections. And, according to former aides, Putin convinced Trump to accept his claim that Ukraine was part of Russia.

It is impossible to know all of Putin’s thinking as he launched the ferocious war that has already claimed thousands of Ukrainian and Russian lives and obliterated parts of the fledgling democracy that sought to strengthen ties with the West.

By most accounts, Putin stewed in grievances for years — the expansion of NATO farther east into his sphere of influence, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and a post-Cold War world order that marginalized Russia — waiting for an opportunity to build back his vision of a grand Russian superpower empire.

He sensed that opportunity with the election of cynical, norms-busting Trump, who at one point declared the North Atlantic Treaty Organization obsolete and has repeatedly, to this day, praised the Russian leader.

“I think Putin saw how Trump viewed Ukraine … as a pawn,” Marie Yovanovitch, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine who testified against Trump in the impeachment trial, said in a recent TV appearance. Putin saw “that we had an administration that was willing to trade our national security for personal and political gain.”


Fiona Hill, a highly regarded Russia expert who served on Trump’s National Security Council and also testified during the impeachment trial, said the former administration did take steps against Moscow on other issues, expelling diplomats and imposing sanctions. But at a “critical period,” when Ukraine was fighting Russia and needed weapons, Trump had his own political future in mind.

It sent “a message to Putin that Ukraine is a plaything for him … and for the United States. And that nobody’s really serious about protecting Ukraine,” Hill added. “And that was ultimately a sign of weakness.”

It was not Trump alone. During the Obama administration, Putin invaded parts of eastern Ukraine, annexing the Crimean peninsula and installing Russian proxies to fight Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region — with minimal U.S. or international rebuke.

Trump supporters and some Republicans say President Biden has to share in the blame. The ugly withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in the summer last year, ending a 20-year war but sacrificing that nation to chaos, also illustrated an administration unable to lead, they say.

Putin watched the United States do “just about everything it could to undermine alliances and partnerships under Donald Trump,” former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder said in a recent conference sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations. Then, Daalder added, Biden took over and talked about “America being back” and yet struggled, initially, to rebuild those alliances.

Still, Trump’s actions, and the lack of significant consequences he faced, represented a unique opening, a bright green light for Putin in Ukraine.

Trump’s impeachment — the first of two — began in the Democratic-led House on Dec. 18, 2019, and ended with a trial and acquittal in the GOP-controlled Senate on Feb. 5, 2020. It stemmed from an infamous call on July 25, 2019, that the then-president made to Zelensky, a fellow novice politician, who had just been elected.

In the call, a transcript of which the White House released after a whistleblower complaint, Zelensky pleaded for more military weaponry — including the Javelin missile systems that are now helping to stall Russian advances on Ukrainian cities. Trump agreed but said that first, he wanted Zelensky to “do us a favor.”

The favor involved investigating Biden’s son Hunter and his lucrative position with the Ukrainian oil conglomerate Burisma. Zelensky resisted, with his staff insisting on a formal request for an investigation if the U.S. wanted one. His staff also emphasized to State Department officials that Zelensky was leery about getting involved in U.S. politics.

Trump had already frozen the aid, a $391-million package of military equipment and other assistance that had been approved by Congress with bipartisan support. At least 25 Ukrainians died in fighting in the east in the weeks that followed, according to an investigation at the time by the Los Angeles Times, although a direct link is impossible to prove.

Only after members of Congress on both sides of the aisle learned about the halt in aid was it finally released on Sept. 11, 2019. It was the first time the U.S. provided lethal military aid to Ukraine, an important, albeit delayed, milestone.

“That chapter, which resulted in the president, former president’s, impeachment, sadly was an encouragement to Putin and weakened Ukraine even in this fight,” said Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-Burbank), who led the first Trump impeachment inquiry.

“What Americans need to understand about that sordid chapter of our history is Ukraine was even then at war with Russia ... Ukrainians were even then dying every week, sometimes every day,” Schiff said.

“What that told Putin, tragically, is the United States doesn’t care about Ukraine, it doesn’t care about its people, it doesn’t care about its democratic aspirations. It doesn’t care if Ukrainians get killed by Russians. I think that’s the message Trump’s conduct sent, that we would use Ukraine as a political plaything.”

Schiff added that Putin anticipated if he started a broader invasion of Ukraine, he could count on Trump either to praise him or to criticize Biden.

Trump has done both.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said last week that Putin was more influenced by Biden.

“I think Putin has wanted Ukraine for a long time. He was waiting for an opportunity where he thought America was in retreat, pulling back from the rest of the world,” McConnell told “PBS NewsHour.” “There was a vivid picture of the evacuation of Afghanistan for everybody in the world to see that America was coming home and pulling in our horns and not inclined to take the forward position we have in the past. It was like a green light to Vladimir Putin.”

But Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, who has been critical of Trump, said it was absurd to excuse the former president or think his presence in the White House would have deterred Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Vladimir Putin, [North Korea’s] Kim Jong Un, Xi [Jinping] of China were getting everything they wanted with Trump,” Kinzinger told CNN on Thursday.

 

[moXJO]

If you mean Crimea et al, true.

Still, Trump and Putin, what a team!

From the LA Times 21 March 2022

Trump was all business, no matter how dirty.
But Russia didn't have a full scale invasion during his time. Trump also warned Europe they were stupid for suckling Russian gas, he was laughed at for that comment. He was a loose cannon, but also willing to do business.


Obama let Russia basically walk into Ukraine.
Biden had some dodgy dealings as well at the time. Obama was to blame for a lot of what happened in the world. A lot of covert bs went on.

 

[IFocus]

Realistically it was Putin's decision to invade Ukraine the question is will it lead to WWIII if the Chinese get involved?

 

[Sean K]

Obama let Russia basically walk into Ukraine.
Biden had some dodgy dealings as well at the time. Obama was to blame for a lot of what happened in the world. A lot of covert bs went on.

While Chinese incursions into the CSC have been going on for decades (I wrote a paper on this at Duntroon in 1993 for John Blaxland who was one of my instructors - yes- name drop) it was during Obama's reign that several coral atolls were turned into Chinese military bases. He allowed it to happen under his watch. Having said that, it's a failure of the UN to have allowed China to do this in other nations claimed EEZs.

 

[moXJO]

While Chinese incursions into the CSC have been going on for decades (I wrote a paper on this at Duntroon in 1993 for John Blaxland who was one of my instructors - yes- name drop) it was during Obama's reign that several coral atolls were turned into Chinese military bases. He allowed it to happen under his watch. Having said that, it's a failure of the UN to have allowed China to do this in other nations claimed EEZs.

Let's face it though, the UN let mind boggling atrocities happen under their direct supervision. Tutsi and Hutu come to mind.

 

[Sean K]

Only slightly off topic, but it really depends on what you guys think 'winning' is to either team. If Russia thought they were going to take Kyiv in a few days and remain a global superpower with any credibility and respect, then it's been a complete disaster. If their intent was to just take everything east of the Dnipro and consolidate access to Crimea then they're going OK. Uniting the EU and forcing the nordic states to all join NATO has probably been their biggest unintended consequences failure though. One of the positives out of this is that China will be having serious second thoughts of trying to take Taiwan by force. Could have delayed their plans by decades.

 

[qldfrog]

Only slightly off topic, but it really depends on what you guys think 'winning' is to either team. If Russia thought they were going to take Kyiv in a few days and remain a global superpower with any credibility and respect, then it's been a complete disaster. If their intent was to just take everything east of the Dnipro and consolidate access to Crimea then they're going OK. Uniting the UE and forcing the nordic states to all join NATO has probably been their biggest unintended consequences failure though. One of the positives out of this is that China will be having serious second thoughts of trying to take Taiwan by force. Could have delayed their plans by decades.

not sure who is winning /loosing Russia vs Ukraine, I suspect both people while the leaders in both Russia and green tshirts Team are making a muzza, but one thing for sure is that the EU and old powersof western europe (France Germany UK etc ) are now fully gone both politically and economically;
The US is winning economically and getting all the old silverware from the EU at a bargain price, selling the old weapon stocks and fracking oil/gas to the EU
but it also destroyed the dollar as king currency as trust is gone in the whole world..was coming anyway but speeded (sped?) the process which is very good for gold fundamentals.
my view only
ohh and while we still are swimming on how Russia is bleeding literally and figuratively propaganda, I noticed quite a few very recent articles in France on papers usually pro US propaganda about what if Russia win, what if we can stop them on the east of Dnipro...etc;
which could indicate that the Ukrainian/western non official nato forces are actually retreating right now
Putting 16y old ukrainian boys under the flag and preventing access to the front to italian journalists also not a great sign.
When the Washington Post will discuss peace proposals and their ABC will mention cease fire will be a definite clue.
Not that peace would hurt for the people there.
Selfishly all good news for gold, maybe even better if the US push further with nuke, a la gas pipe.
After all, that would deal with the EU and create a great reconstruction market for the deep state billions

 

[finicky]

Ukraine is winning morally

 

[qldfrog]

Ukraine is winning morally

Yes sure...does not help the kids dying on the front on both side, or the country either.

 

[greggles]

What has surprised me the most one year into this war is how many of those living in Western democracies have come down on the side of Russia's brutal brand of authoritarianism.

There is no doubt that Russia intends (or at least intended) to absorb the entirety of Ukraine into Russia and completely destroy Ukrainian national identity and culture. Those waging this war seem prepared to kill as many Ukrainians (and sacrifice as many of their own troops) as is necessary to achieve this aim. It is clear that civilians have been deliberately targeted and in many cases subject to summary executions. Dozens of towns and cities have been razed to the ground. This has all been done deliberately as part of a wider strategy.

The sheer amount of apologists and outright supporters of this outrage has completely taken me by surprise. As has the amount of appeasers who believe that Ukraine should hand over large swathes of its territory to Russia in the name of "peace".

Russia only knows force, and any act of weakness or appeasement will be met with more brutality. Russia must be comprehensively defeated on the battlefield and sanctions must remain in place until Ukraine's security can be guaranteed. A rabid dog must be put down, and that is exactly what the Russian Federation is, a geopolitical rabid dog.

 

[qldfrog]

not sure who is winning /loosing Russia vs Ukraine, I suspect both people while the leaders in both Russia and green tshirts Team are making a muzza, but one thing for sure is that the EU and old powersof western europe (France Germany UK etc ) are now fully gone both politically and economically;
The US is winning economically and getting all the old silverware from the EU at a bargain price, selling the old weapon stocks and fracking oil/gas to the EU
but it also destroyed the dollar as king currency as trust is gone in the whole world..was coming anyway but speeded (sped?) the process which is very good for gold fundamentals.
my view only
ohh and while we still are swimming on how Russia is bleeding literally and figuratively propaganda, I noticed quite a few very recent articles in France on papers usually pro US propaganda about what if Russia win, what if we can stop them on the east of Dnipro...etc;
which could indicate that the Ukrainian/western non official nato forces are actually retreating right now
Putting 16y old ukrainian boys under the flag and preventing access to the front to italian journalists also not a great sign.
When the Washington Post will discuss peace proposals and their ABC will mention cease fire will be a definite clue.
Not that peace would hurt for the people there.
Selfishly all good news for gold, maybe even better if the US push further with nuke, a la gas pipe.
After all, that would deal with the EU and create a great reconstruction market for the deep state billions

was following a Gold related post.
yes definitively relevant to gold as a nuke there is a given on GP jumping higher and USD destruction significantly affected by the US proxy war
as for ukraine war,no point debating or trying to have a more balanced view it seems it is black and white sorry coloured vs evil

 

[Craton]

Trump was all business, no matter how dirty.
But Russia didn't have a full scale invasion during his time. Trump also warned Europe they were stupid for suckling Russian gas, he was laughed at for that comment. He was a loose cannon, but also willing to do business.

Trump was all about feathering his own nest, that is his business model.

Obama let Russia basically walk into Ukraine.

Why is it Obama's fault?
The West collectively wanted to use diplomacy to warded off any confrontation so as to avoid the very real threat of what we have now. The brink of WW3 and nukes.

Surely the blame lies with Russia/Putin, lying, weaseling and muscling itself into puppet states and installing puppet leaders is former USSR territories.
Putin is a draconian war monger dragging his communist croonie mates into any unnecessary conflict.

Biden had some dodgy dealings as well at the time. Obama was to blame for a lot of what happened in the world. A lot of covert bs went on.

Speaking of dodgy dealings, Wall Street could be blamed for more wrongs and covert b/s in the world than Obama.

 

[sptrawler]

I think it was Patton that didn't want to stop at Berlin, but at Moscow. The guy had the foresight to understand exactly how Russians would become a problem.

I think you will find it was Churchill, with operation unthinkable.
But Paton may have had the same idea.

 

[Smurf1976]

Trump also warned Europe they were stupid for suckling Russian gas, he was laughed at for that comment.

I can recall that being raised as far back as 1998.

The EU depending on Russia to keep the lights on and handing them a fortune in the process. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[moXJO]

Realistically it was Putin's decision to invade Ukraine the question is will it lead to WWIII if the Chinese get involved?

It seems a big possibility under Biden. The yanks will throw us under

Trump was all about feathering his own nest, that is his business model.


Why is it Obama's fault?
The West collectively wanted to use diplomacy to warded off any confrontation so as to avoid the very real threat of what we have now. The brink of WW3 and nukes.

Surely the blame lies with Russia/Putin, lying, weaseling and muscling itself into puppet states and installing puppet leaders is former USSR territories.
Putin is a draconian war monger dragging his communist croonie mates into any unnecessary conflict.


Speaking of dodgy dealings, Wall Street could be blamed for more wrongs and covert b/s in the world than Obama.

Obama was to blame for a lot. Guy was terrible. His government failed at multiple levels for years.

 

[IFocus]

Only slightly off topic, but it really depends on what you guys think 'winning' is to either team. If Russia thought they were going to take Kyiv in a few days and remain a global superpower with any credibility and respect, then it's been a complete disaster. If their intent was to just take everything east of the Dnipro and consolidate access to Crimea then they're going OK. Uniting the UE and forcing the nordic states to all join NATO has probably been their biggest unintended consequences failure though. One of the positives out of this is that China will be having serious second thoughts of trying to take Taiwan by force. Could have delayed their plans by decades.

I was thinking a positive would be letting the west see how the Russian military operated in real time hardware / people / strategy etc and allowing them to prepare for defensive / offensive operations should they be required.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

 

[Joe Blow]

I have merged the two Ukraine War threads as the same ground was being covered in both threads. While one was started with the intention of having an economic focus, that soon gave way to a more general discussion and for that reason it made sense to combine both threads.