Ukraine War

[IFocus]

What if the Chinese start serious supply of weapons to Russia?

 

[Sean K]

My guess, North Korea needs to tone it down, or they may become an example of the U.S fire power.
A direct attack on China, or on Russia would be catastrophic, a retaliatory strike on North Korea, when Trump already warned them eh.

North Korea fired a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Saturday, Japan's Defense Ministry said, with the weapon splashing down some 200 kilometers off Hokkaido's Oshima Island, inside Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ).2 days ago

North Korea is a significant problem, but the US have enough pre-positioned weapons to destroy their nuclear plants and launch sites before they get to fire anything in anger. Top Gun Maverick wasn't too far off the mark. But, I don't think Tom Cruise would be the team leader and flying an F14 out of the combat zone. The biggest problem for North Korea is actually South Korea and Japan who probably have the most advanced self defence and second strike capabilities on the planet. China have completely misjudged Japan's response to their aggression. Who would have thought that the third biggest economy in the world might re-arm under threat? LOL. And, now they're on our team, for now. China is going to be toast if they attack Taiwan. Especially now Russia is also about to be toasted too.

 

[Sean K]

What if the Chinese start serious supply of weapons to Russia?

WW3 has probably already started, this will just be a continuation of the process. It really has to be stopped very soon. Ukraine just have to give up east of the Dnipro and that will do it, IMO.

 

[sptrawler]

Agree @Sean K , I was just thinking rather than go into direct conflict with Russia/China, it would be much more expedient to just use North Korea as a demonstration of available equipment, much more subtle and just as effective without the repercussions.
Just a thought.
Anyway if it does end up in WW3, all our shares, money and property are worth zip and we are back to bread and dripping or bread and sugar sandwiches again.
Been there done that and it wasn't nice the first time round..

 

[Sean K]

Agree @Sean K , I was just thinking rather than go into direct conflict with Russia/China, it would be much more expedient to just use North Korea as a demonstration of available equipment, much more subtle and just as effective without the repercussions.
Just a thought.
Anyway if it does end up in WW3, all our shares, money and property are worth zip and we are back to bread and dripping or bread and sugar sandwiches again.
Been there done that and it wasn't nice the first time round..

I think and hope MAD prevents a proper WW as it has for 80 years. I really hope so, anyway. It's why the World has been at relative peace since the invention of the A Bomb, which is a bit counterintuitive. The problem is minority states with nothing to lose who push the button first. It's why Pakistan, Iran and Nth Korea are probably the World's greatest threats.

 

[sptrawler]

Well from Australia's perspective, if China/ US does go to war, we are right in play, uranium, iron ore, metallurgical coal, rare earths, gold, silver and most of the other $hit most countries want, let alone a great climate, great welfare, nice open spaces.
So if China has similar submarines as the U.S, and they are armed with similar weapons, one off Sydney and one off Melbourne could get rid of half of Australia's population and most of its management in a matter of minutes, that's pretty amazing when you think about it.

Thank god for the nullarbor, another big plus the son is on 100acres off grid, just got to pick up a cheap caravan, I've already got the E.V.

Just need to tune in to a preppers channel.

 

[Sean K]

Well from Australia's perspective, if China/ US does go to war, we are right in play, uranium, iron ore, metallurgical coal, rare earths, gold, silver and most of the other $hit most countries want, let alone a great climate, great welfare, nice open spaces.
So if China has similar submarines as the U.S, and they are armed with similar weapons, one off Sydney and one off Melbourne could get rid of half of Australia's population and most of its management in a matter of minutes, that's pretty amazing when you think about it.
Thank god for the nullarbor.

Pretty scary isn't it. Much more than Japan's goals in WW2 which was only to take SE Asia. But, the problem China have is India, not necessarily the US. The US are completely safe, territory wise. It's why they didn't enter WW1 or 2 until very late. They thought they could just stay out of it and, IMO, saw it as a grand strategic opportunity to come out of both wars as the sole superpower. They could still stay out of the SW Pacific unless directly attacked. I don't think China will make the same mistake. However, India are probably going to be more threatened by China taking over SE Asia now. The QUAD is more significant than most might think.

 

[sptrawler]

Trumps plan, much easier, much more surgical, much less repricussions. Lol
Also puts a bigger neutral zone between South Koreas high tech manufacturing and China.
Victoria is ok, Dan is great mates with China belt and road and all that. Haha
W.A's ok, huge state tons of room, plenty of space for resorts and they will need heaps of baristas. Lol

 

[sptrawler]

Anyway on a brighter note, if China did invade Australia, there wouldnt need to be a referendum on the voice to parliament, there wouldnt be a housing affordability problem, our currency would probably be non tenderable and our journalists would be able to give a honest first hand account of life in a gulag.
What a hoot, then the doom and gloom they peddle, will be from experience.

 

[Sean K]

Anyway on a brighter note, if China did invade Australia, there wouldnt need to be a referendum on the voice to parliament, there wouldnt be a housing affordability problem, our currency would probably be non tenderable and our journalists would be able to give a honest first hand account of life in a gulag.
What a hoot, then the doom and gloom they peddle, will be from experience.

(Somewhat on topic)

Yes, that would be a good thing.

We do have lots of gold and other resources though, so whoever needs them will be on our team.

Conflict is about space and resources.

But, China could invade Australia tomorrow.

Our only hope of defence is a strategic partnerships with the US and the UK (which we have) and therefore their alliances.

I don't think punters realise the extent of the Anglo alliances. It's why we have been one of NATO"s major partners from a strategic perspective. Our flag, next to the US and UK in Afghan and Iraq, was critical in ensuring our sovereignty going into the future. Grand strategic planning from the Australian government. Not 5 years down the track, but out 200 years. I think the Anglo grand strategic planners want to stay in control for as long as they can, and they need to contain China.

 

[Sean K]

Crikey, Biden in Ukraine overnight. There is definitely no stepping back now. It's just a matter of where the line is to step back to. This is really untidy.

 

[Knobby22]

Crikey, Biden in Ukraine overnight. There is definitely no stepping back now. It's just a matter of where the line is to step back to. This is really untidy.

The USA under the clever Biden with ally Poland has been very successful. Hasn't put a foot wrong since the war started.

Russia assumed Germany and France didn't want to get involved and they didn't but now due to clever diplomacy they are in boots and all whether they want to be or not.

NATO is expanded and developing better defences and Russia is losing influence among the "Stans" countries.

Russia wanted a buffer state and to control food resources in the world but now find themselves reduced to becoming a buffer state to China. Belarus will fail eventually.

 

[Craton]

Didn't Australia and France agree to make artillery munitions for Ukraine?
Thus, going some ways to thaw the frosty relationship over lost sub sales.

From the ABC

Australia has partnered with France to supply Ukraine with 155-millimetre artillery shells, Defence Minister Richard Marles and his counterpart Sebastien Lecornu have announced.

 

[Craton]

Re. Trump. His blocking miltary aid when asking Zelenski for a "favour" lead to an impeachment but accelerated Putin's view that Ukraine et al was weak, so the time was right to strike and now here we are.

 

[Sean K]

I know some people think NATO has crossed some lines with accepting additional members close to the Russian borders. But, NATO is not going to invade Russia. It's a defensive pact. Has any NATO country invaded anyone else? (OK, Iraq and Afghan but that might be a different story) The borders were set after the failure of the USSR and the fall of the Berlin Wall. This is a vanity project of Putin, full stop.

 

[moXJO]

Re. Trump. His blocking miltary aid when asking Zelenski for a "favour" lead to an impeachment but accelerated Putin's view that Ukraine et al was weak, so the time was right to strike and now here we are.

That original involvement happened under Obama. Putin thought Biden was weak.

 

[moXJO]

I know some people think NATO has crossed some lines with accepting additional members close to the Russian borders. But, NATO is not going to invade Russia. It's a defensive pact. Has any NATO country invaded anyone else? (OK, Iraq and Afghan but that might be a different story) The borders were set after the failure of the USSR and the fall of the Berlin Wall. This is a vanity project of Putin, full stop.



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At the end of the second world war the yanks have wanted to crush Russia. I wish they had of taken them down then. Afterwards it was a slow cold war up to this point. We have skirmishes with the Russians for years.

All the yanks older military equipment is designed to destroy Russian military equipment. They are cycling out of old military hardware and retooling for a war against China. Guess who ends up paying for it.

It's strategically bad for Russia to get boxed in. Missile defence can be placed in UN borders and neuter the Russians ability to stroke.

 

[JohnDe]

History shows that mistakes in war can be very costly -

For decades after it happened, Operation Mars would be taught in Soviet History books as a brilliant and effective diversion scheme that masterfully deceived the Germans.​

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The official story claimed that Operation Uranus, the ambitious Soviet thrust to encircle Stalingrad, was the cornerstone of the Red Army's offensive, while operation Mars was merely a secondary diversion assault aimed at keeping the Germans near Rzhev from reinforcing the embattled city.​

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But as Operation Uranus unfolded, the Soviets launched a second pincer maneuver on a salient located in the northern town of Rzhev.​

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The tumultuous assault kept the German 9th Army engaged, leading a desperate defensive effort and prohibiting the soldiers from reinforcing their comrades in Stalingrad as they were being besieged.​

​

Nevertheless, another version of the events would emerge five decades later, portraying Operation Mars not as a clever distraction that fooled the German armies but as a massive, botched assault aimed to be even more significant than Uranus.​

​

The operation was filled with reckless actions and appalling mistakes that would lead to one of the most ruinous Soviet defeats in the war, earning the name of "The Rzhev Meat Grinder"…​

 

[Sean K]

At the end of the second world war the yanks have wanted to crush Russia. I wish they had of taken them down then. Afterwards it was a slow cold war up to this point. We have skirmishes with the Russians for years.

All the yanks older military equipment is designed to destroy Russian military equipment. They are cycling out of old military hardware and retooling for a war against China. Guess who ends up paying for it.

It's strategically bad for Russia to get boxed in. Missile defence can be placed in UN borders and neuter the Russians ability to stroke.

Europe was actually lucky Russia fought so hard and sacrificed so much against Germany in WW2. If Hitler had have just focussed on SW Europe the whole continent might be called Germania.

 

[moXJO]

Europe was actually lucky Russia fought so hard and sacrificed so much against Germany in WW2. If Hitler had have just focussed on SW Europe the whole continent might be called Germania.

I think it was Patton that didn't want to stop at Berlin, but at Moscow. The guy had the foresight to understand exactly how Russians would become a problem.