It is now official.
The Russians are withdrawing to the Left (Eastern) bank of the Dnipro River.
They are all hat and no herd, as shown in this video.
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Good news but and not surprising, there are reports of Russian military blowing up critical civilian infrastructure in KhersonWake up and look at the news : on Liveuamap, a bunch of flags showing multiple liberated villages in NE Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts.
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And best, click on each where there is a photo of the fellas, posing in front of some geolocatable reference, and most windows are intact. Towns not burnt down or destroyed by artillery exchanges.
Ukrainian control of information has been tight, so these images appear well after the fact.
Looks like the Russians have withdrawn from part of the northern banks of the Dnipro.
I'm beginning to think the population of Kherson is in the tens of millions ..... the Russians said 98% of the population voted for incorporation into the motherland, yet ... yet, there seems to be rather large crowds joyously celebrating, in every city and town recently liberated.It is now official.
The Russians are withdrawing to the Left (Eastern) bank of the Dnipro River.
Inside Kherson as it celebrates liberation from Russia
Crowds of euphoric residents lined the streets of Kherson on Saturday waving yellow and blue flags in greeting as their troops rolled into the city after eight months of brutal Russian occupation.
“Glory to the Ukrainian armed forces! Glory to Ukraine!” they chanted. A cardboard sign taped to a lamppost in Freedom Square read: “Putin kaput!”
Some of the Russian propaganda posters around the strategically important southern city had already been torn down in the hours since President Putin’s army made a hasty withdrawal on Friday morning. Teenagers posed for selfies in front of one hoarding that remained, their middle fingers extended towards its now outdated declaration: “Kherson is with Russia for ever!”
Kherson, which had a pre-war population of more than 280,000, was the only provincial capital that Russia had seized. Its loss is Putin’s most embarrassing defeat since he invaded Ukraine in February. Coming six weeks after he claimed the city for Russia in perpetuity, it is arguably the biggest personal humiliation of his 22-year rule.
Celebrations broke out across Ukraine on Friday after the Russians began to flee. In his nightly video address President Zelensky hailed the recapture of the city as a “historic day” and promised to restore medicine supplies and communications as soon as possible. “Life is returning,” he said.
In Kherson itself the jubilation was tempered by the danger posed by the Russian military presence just across the Dnipro river that flows around the back of the city.
Celebrations broke out across Ukraine on Friday after the Russians began to flee. Picture: REUTERS/Lesko Kromplitz
As we joined residents on the Ukrainian-controlled western side of the river, Russian soldiers opened fire from the opposite bank, forcing us to make a hasty retreat. About half an hour later Russian shells were heard in the distance.
When Putin’s army escaped, they blew up the Antonoviskyi bridge, the only road link across the Dnipro, to prevent a Ukrainian pursuit.
Not all the Russian soldiers got out in time. “Some of them are holed up in basements,” Zhenya, a Ukrainian soldier, said. “Our forces are working to neutralise them.”
Filled with adrenaline, residents shared raw memories of the misery inflicted by the occupiers.
“We lived in hell under the Russians,” said Serghii, 29. “There was no freedom. They took anyone who was pro-Ukrainian and tortured them. But I always believed our army would free us. Always.”
Dmytro, 25, had been less confident the liberation would come. “It was so terrifying to walk along the street and hear the screams of people being tortured. I’ll never be able to forget this,” he said. During the occupation, Russian soldiers had routinely stopped local residents and checked their phones, he added. “If they found even a hint that you were pro-Ukrainian, they locked you up and beat you.”
Another man, Evhen, said Russian soldiers had dragged him off the streets and beaten him for hours. “They threatened to cut my ear off,” he said.
Galyna, another local resident, said: “The occupants looted everything they could and sent it to Russia. What they couldn’t take, they destroyed.”
Local resident Valentyna Buhaiova embraces Ukrainian marines in the recently retaken village of Kyselivka, outside of Kherson, Ukraine Picture: REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
Russian-installed officials even forced Kherson’s residents to live by Russian time, an hour ahead of Ukraine. As darkness fell on Saturday evening, residents were unsure about what time it was. “We are all confused now,” said one. “Is is 6pm or 7pm?”
Because the retreating Russian forces cut off the power and the water supply, much of Kherson descended into darkness. People gathered at cafes powered by generators. In contrast to the joy in the city centre earlier, the mood was tense. A drunken man hurled a cup of tea at an elderly woman after she said her grandson had served in the Soviet army.
Imposing order on the liberated city is now an urgent priority. The head of the national police, Ihor Klymenko, wrote on Facebook that about 200 officers were setting up checkpoints, defusing unexploded ordnance and documenting evidence of possible war crimes.
Some residents collaborated with the occupying forces. Those who did face an uncertain future. Roman Holovnya, an adviser to Kherson’s mayor, pointed at a woman in a red coat. “She was kissing Russian soldiers!” he shouted.
Residents also spoke of firefights between Russian units. “The Chechens were fighting the Wagner mercenaries and the Russians were fighting the [Siberian] Buryat troops,” Roman said.
Seized by Russia’s army in early March, Kherson was spared the large-scale destruction witnessed in other Ukrainian towns and cities. The villages nearby are in ruins, however.
De-mining teams face an enormous task in ridding the city and the roads around it of improvised explosive devices.
Soldiers advancing towards Kherson also feared the celebrations would not last. “Putin is going to smash Kherson with cruise missiles, he’s going to destroy it,” one fighter, reeling with drink, said.
the posturings of Kadrov (bit player, useful idiot) and Wagner Group financer Yevgeny Prigozhin, plus the role of what are termed milbloggers (usually ultra-nationalist), are interesting.This has changed from an Invasion/Special Military Operation to an existential crisis for Russia as leader of The Russian Federation.
Such is the ending of all empires.
the posturings of Kadrov (bit player, useful idiot) and Wagner Group financer Yevgeny Prigozhin, plus the role of what are termed milbloggers (usually ultra-nationalist), are interesting.
They are vehement in criticism of the Russian Ministry of Defense for perceived failures and seem to operate independently of the Russian Armed Forces. Prigozhin is forming parallel military structures in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts, plus opening offices in what he sees as recalcitrant cities , esp St Petersburg, where the local admin isn't behind the mobilisation (it seems the regions have to pay for the mobilisations themselves). Even the contemptible Girkin has raised a militia.
And Putin has gone quiet. Evidently the elite Rosgvardia (said to be more than 250,000 troops) that protect him are immune from service in the badlands.
Not a recipe for stability, when things go wrong.
On what terms could the war in Ukraine stop
Pressure for peace talks is growing, even as Russia retreats from Kherson
Russia’s lightning attack on Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, was a failure. Its creeping artillery war to seize the eastern region of Donbas has ground to a bloody halt. It has lost a chunk of stolen territory south of the city of Kharkiv, and this week announced a retreat from Kherson, the only provincial capital it had captured since its invasion in February. With each setback, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has sought new ways to torment Ukraine. The latest is a relentless bombardment that seeks to wreck Ukraine’s infrastructure. Residents of the capital have been told they may have to evacuate if the power grid collapses, halting water and sewage services.
Power cuts have not sapped Ukraine’s will to fight. But they are a reminder that, eight months after his unprovoked invasion, Mr Putin keeps looking for ways to raise the stakes. Some worry he might blow up a dam on the Dnieper river, as Stalin did in 1941, to slow his adversaries’ advance.
The ever-evolving Russian assault also raises an awkward question: how long will America and Europe keep providing Ukraine with the billions of dollars’ worth of military and economic aid it needs every month to fend Russia off? “For as long as it takes,” say Western leaders. But many of their citizens reject the idea of bankrolling an indefinite conflict with Russia. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Rome on November 5th, calling for an end to the fighting. “We don’t want war. No weapons, no sanctions. Where is diplomacy?” read one placard.
Wary Washington
In America, too, questions have been raised. Hard-left Democrats recently issued a call, swiftly retracted, for negotiations. Gains by America-first Republicans in the midterm elections on November 8th, although smaller than expected, are a reminder that American politics might change dramatically after the next presidential election, in two years’ time, and with it policy on Ukraine.
Jake Sullivan, Mr Biden’s national-security adviser, made an unannounced trip to Kyiv on November 4th to promise “unwavering” support. But he also urged Ukraine to think about future peace terms. It has since emerged that he has been in touch with his Russian counterparts, to warn them not to use nuclear weapons. On November 9th Mr Biden said Russia and Ukraine would “lick their wounds” after the battle for Kherson, and might then be ready for compromise. He insisted he would not tell Ukraine what to do.
In private, Western and Ukrainian officials are starting to ponder what a stable outcome might look like. Will Ukraine become a new Finland, forced to cede land to its invaders and to remain neutral for decades? Or another West Germany, with its national territory partitioned by war and its democratic half absorbed into nato? A much-discussed template is Israel, a country under constant threat that has been able to defend itself without formal alliances but with extensive military help from America.
The precise terms of any negotiated settlement depend on what happens on the battlefield. There is likely to be a lot more fighting before either side is ready to end the war. Russia and Ukraine have each lost, by one estimate, roughly 100,000 soldiers, killed and wounded, but both still hope to manoeuvre to a more favourable position.
The retreat from Kherson is a humiliation for Mr Putin. But it will give Russian forces a more easily defended line along the Dnieper river. Mr Putin shows no sign of throwing in the towel. He has mobilised hundreds of thousands more recruits. Some have been rushed into battle with little training or equipment to hold the line; the rest may be used for a renewed push next year.
Ukraine, for its part, hopes to maintain its momentum. Its army is getting reinforcements this winter, in the form of thousands of recruits trained by Britain and other Western countries. Western arms continue to arrive. On November 4th the Pentagon announced another arms package, worth $400m, including 45 refurbished t-72b tanks and 1,100 drones. The first new nasams anti-aircraft batteries were deployed this week.
The West’s stocks of weapons are not unlimited. European armies have eaten deep into theirs; even mighty America worries about eroding its own ability to fight future wars. It is Russia, however, that seems to face the most immediate shortages. It has used up most of its precision bombs and missiles, and is struggling to replace them because of sanctions. It is obtaining fresh weapons from the likes of Iran and perhaps North Korea. (China has so far heeded American warnings to stay out of the war.)
Cold calculation
Mr Putin is hoping his campaign to destroy Ukraine’s electricity grid will freeze the country into submission, or at least turn it into a weak, failing state. But the evidence of past conflicts is that aerial bombing of civilians, in the absence of an effective ground campaign, rarely secures victory. Nearly 90% of Ukrainians want the country to keep fighting.
In Russia, according to the Levada Centre, a pollster, only 36% want to press on with the war, whereas 57% favour peace talks. At the same time, support for Mr Putin remains at 79%. Russians, it seems, would like the war to end but, starved of impartial news, do not blame Mr Putin for it. Still, the more he tries to dragoon them into fighting, the more he risks losing popular support.
Ukraine’s more avid Western supporters think that, with time, Ukraine will become stronger, and Russia weaker. But Mr Putin is hoping that “General Winter” will somehow revive his fortunes, if not by weakening Ukraine’s will to fight then by gnawing at the West’s readiness to support it, as the heating bills balloon in Europe.
Mr Putin claims that he is ready to negotiate (from the starting point that the West should recognise his theft of Ukrainian territory) but that Ukraine’s Western “masters” have prevented it from talking. The two sides held lengthy talks after Russia seized the Crimean peninsula and part of Donbas in 2014. They talked again in the spring, as Russia besieged Kyiv. But Ukraine set its face against further negotiations after Russia’s retreat from Kyiv in April revealed widespread atrocities against civilians. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, suggested this week that talks could be revived, but only if Russia was willing to give back Ukrainian land, pay compensation and accept responsibility for war crimes.
The West is vague about its own aims. Mr Biden has at times mused about wanting to see Mr Putin ousted from power; at others he has talked about finding “off-ramps” for the Russian leader. He defined his goals most clearly in a guest article in the New York Times in May: “a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression”. Notably, that left out the question of Ukraine’s borders. Western leaders say this is for Ukraine to decide; their aim is to strengthen its negotiating hand.
More recently, though, Ukraine’s backers have sounded more specific. In a statement on October 11th, leaders of the g7 group of industrialised countries offered their “full support to Ukraine’s independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty in its internationally recognised borders”. They demanded that Russia “completely and unconditionally withdraw” from all seized lands. Among other things, they pledged to find ways of using seized Russian assets to help fund Ukraine’s reconstruction.
In need of a break
“The g7 statement is basically a demand for total Russian surrender, which is not a plausible diplomatic outcome. Diplomacy by definition involves give and take. The expectation should not be another Treaty of Versailles,” says Samuel Charap of the rand Corporation, an American think-tank, referring to the punitive terms imposed on Germany at the end of the first world war. The West, Ukraine and Russia, he argues, should start talking, if only to set the groundwork for more substantive negotiations in future: “Fighting and talking at the same time should be the norm.”
Many disagree. “Keep up the pressure. Don’t be in a hurry to draw lines on a map. It would be bureaucratic suicide. Somebody will put it up on Twitter alongside the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact,” retorts Dan Fried of the Atlantic Council, another American think-tank, alluding to Nazi Germany’s and the Soviet Union’s carve-up of Poland in 1939.
Few Western leaders question Ukraine’s ambition to recapture the territory lost since Russia invaded in February. Many would support efforts to reclaim the parts of Donbas seized in 2014. But opinion is more divided when it comes to reconquering Crimea. Many worry that the prospect of losing the peninsula might prompt a dangerous escalation from Mr Putin.
To some in the Biden administration, the war is a matter of principle: territory should never be seized by force, so all Russian gains must be reversed. Others, doubting Ukraine’s ability to reconquer much more, think the time for diplomacy is soon. Either way, America is in no rush to spell out diplomatic positions that might cause rifts in the pro-Ukraine camp.
Another pressing concern is the nature of future Western security guarantees for Ukraine. They will need to be robust given that Russia will probably remain a threat to Ukraine for as long as Mr Putin is in power, if not longer. Several central and eastern European countries favour Ukraine’s rapid admission to nato, on the grounds that the alliance’s commitment to mutual defence would firmly deter Russia. For all its nuclear menaces, it has so far refrained from overtly striking nato territory.
The Biden administration, though, is wary of having to extend its nuclear umbrella to a country in a state of latent or actual conflict with Russia. Throughout, Mr Biden has been careful to minimise the risk of a direct nato-Russia conflict for fear that it would lead to “World War III”. Several nato members in western Europe are similarly sceptical.
So attention has turned to interim, or alternative, arrangements. In September Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former secretary-general of nato, and Andriy Yermak, Mr Zelensky’s chief of staff, proposed a “Kyiv Security Compact” which would offer security assistance short of a mutual-defence pact. Some in Ukraine considered it a betrayal. Modelled on Western support for Israel, about which Mr Zelensky has spoken, the compact would strengthen Ukraine’s armed forces—in effect turning the current ad hoc support into a systematic, long-term commitment.
Ukraine’s partners would promise “multi-decade” investments in the country’s defence industry, massive weapons transfers, training, joint exercises and intelligence support. The compact would require neither Russia’s assent nor Ukraine’s neutrality. It would not preclude nato membership. In some circumstances, there could be military intervention to help Ukraine. If it were attacked, the signatories would “use all elements of their national and collective power and take appropriate measures—which may include diplomatic, economic and military means.” A wider group of countries, including Asian allies, would reinforce such military assistance with sanctions on Russia, including provisions to “snap back” any of the current penalties that may be lifted as part of a deal.
Even this may be too ambitious for Team Biden. Some ask, for instance, what commitments Ukraine would take on, by way of reforms to strengthen democracy, say, or to fight corruption. The parallel with Israel is imperfect. Among other things, Israel is a nuclear power and occupies Arab land. For Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank in Kyiv, the Israeli model “is not only about mobilising our partners externally; it’s also about explaining to people what it means to live next door to a crazy neighbour, to existential threats.”
The sky must be the limit
Whatever the diplomatic template, Russia’s blitz has proved that the West will need to help Ukraine create a properly integrated and layered air-defence system, mixing fighter aircraft, surface-to-air batteries and shoulder-launched weapons. At the moment weapons are arriving piecemeal and often cannot exchange data. There are also worries about Ukraine running out of certain types of air-defence munitions. If that were to happen Russia could then deploy much more air power in support of ground troops.
Uncertain harvest
Ukraine’s mix-and-match weapons—a “Mr Potato Head” arsenal, as some call it—cause problems elsewhere. For instance, it has no fewer than 14 different types of artillery pieces, with an average brigade operating four different sorts. “This is a logistical nightmare for them, especially when we talk about ammunition,” says Nick Reynolds of rusi, a British think-tank. Some of the weapons are wearing out badly, and Europe’s defence industry, sapped by decades of low spending, is poorly placed to produce spare parts. “Red lights are flashing in terms of that support being available,” adds Mr Reynolds.
How long the war goes on depends mainly on Mr Putin. He is in a bind, both in Ukraine and at home. Moderate technocrats are worried about the strains on the economy; “national patriots” such as Yevgeny Prigozhin, who commands the Wagner mercenary group, have called for purges of supposedly treacherous generals.
A pause to play at diplomacy may suit Mr Putin for a time—particularly if it allows him to consolidate some territorial gains. That may explain his recent toning down of nuclear rhetoric and his sudden casting of Ukrainians as victims of Western aggression. “The West is throwing Ukrainians into a furnace”; Russia, in contrast, “has always treated Ukrainian people with respect,” Mr Putin declared on November 4th. (His propagandists and officials, though, still talk of “de-Satanising” Ukraine.) The shift fits another of Mr Putin’s guises, as the champion of a global movement to cast off Western dominance.
In all this Mr Putin is seeking to woo waverers, especially in the global South. He also wants to reassure friends such as China and India, which have made plain their disapproval of his nuclear recklessness. Above all Mr Putin is interested in reaching one rich-world listener: Donald Trump, whose allies in Congress question American aid to Ukraine and who may soon announce another run for president.
For all his setbacks, Mr Putin is not yet out of options to persecute Ukraine and try to divide the West. Militarily, he could commit more of his air force and mobilise more troops. In the covert “grey zone” he could sabotage undersea gas pipelines and internet connections to the West, conduct bigger cyber-attacks, interfere with communications satellites and step up disinformation campaigns. He could also sink ships carrying grain from Ukraine. Ultimately, he could use tactical nuclear weapons. All this, though, would come at heavy cost: it would make Russia even more of a pariah, weaken him at home and might provoke harsh retaliation.
The stakes are higher for Mr Putin than for the West. But they are highest for Ukrainians, many of whom mistrust the very idea of talks with Russia and see military victory as their only option—even if it takes years to achieve. The more land it can regain, Ukraine reckons, the greater the chance of getting rid of Mr Putin. Yet that same prospect alarms many in the West: a rout of the Russian army might be what pushes Mr Putin to go nuclear. That is one reason why Team Biden long ago stopped talking about helping Ukraine “win”.
As it has often done with Israel, America may at some point try to limit Ukraine’s ambitions. It need not do so overtly; it can simply withhold the arms Ukraine needs, as it already does to an extent. It declines to provide Western aircraft, Patriot air-defence missiles and longer-range atacms strike missiles for fear that they might goad Russia to use nuclear weapons.
All this explains why some Ukrainians have been circulating a bittersweet message issued to Finnish troops in 1940 at the end of the “Winter War” with the Soviet Union by their commander, Carl Gustaf Mannerheim. The vastly outnumbered Finns had inflicted heavy losses on Soviet forces but nonetheless had to cede territory because help from their friends had dried up, Mannerheim wrote, signing off with the words, “We are proudly conscious of the historic duty which we shall continue to fulfil; the defence of that Western civilisation which has been our heritage for centuries, but we know also that we have paid to the very last penny any debt we may have owed the West.”
Ukraine’s fate depends not just on the valour of its soldiers or resilience of its people, but also on external factors it cannot control: the inscrutable calculations of Russia’s despotic ruler and the fortitude of its friends. The benefits to the West of the war are already clear. Russia has been enormously weakened, making Europe’s flank much easier to defend. For Ukraine, which has suffered horrific losses, the outcome looks much less certain.
Washington has not officially confirmed it was Russian missiles, most likely yes but the media is really jumping too quick on all the conclusionsTwo rockets hit grain dryers in Poland on border with Ukraine, Polish radio claims
Two rockets hit grain dryers in Poland on border with Ukraine, Polish radio claims
It was not specified who fired the rocketstass.com
Russia denying it was firing in the area. I'd want hard hard proof before any escalation.
Or even silo explosion..i doubt..but Poland has all interest to turn the heat on..as already discussed, we are turning toward a world of US diminishing, XI number one and Mexico, Turkey and Poland feeding on the remnant of the West, with Iran as a wild card and India in its ownregion.Washington has not officially confirmed it was Russian missiles, most likely yes but the media is really jumping too quick on all the conclusions
I don't think there is any silos there, I think it might turn into a game of blame like the plane that was shot down over Ukraine. Russians and Ukrainians blame each other and use a same type of a missile.. hmm too hard to make opinion atmOr even silo explosion..i doubt..but Poland has all interest to turn the heat on..as already discussed, we are turning toward a world of US diminishing, XI number one and Mexico, Turkey and Poland feeding on the remnant of the West, with Iran as a wild card and India in its ownregion.
Poland would be very keen for NATO to be involved so very biaised
Peace is a very long way in Europe but you get what you seed
Not confirmed. But assuming it is of Russian source, it hit a village about as close to Ukraine as possible. A bad mistake but still a mistake.Washington has not officially confirmed it was Russian missiles, most likely yes but the media is really jumping too quick on all the conclusions
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