Ukraine War

[Telamelo]

Possibly, or maybe you’re ignorant to what is happening inside Russia, the full control of traditional and social media by the state, and the paranoia.

Did you read the article I posted, which discusses the facts.

Imagine if the world governments stood up to Hitler’s Nazi regime in 1935.

I suggest you read the article written by people with a lot more knowledge and resources than you have.

How World War III became possible

A nuclear conflict with Russia is likelier than you think.

www.vox.com

RE: "Possibly, or maybe you’re ignorant to what is happening inside Russia, the full control of traditional and social media by the state, and the paranoia".

fyi @JohnDe firstly, I'm not ignorant to what's happening inside Russia - as I've been & lived there myself (admittedly many year's ago though). I have huge satellite dish & see live stream Russian t.v. broadcasts so know what's reported there.

I do somewhat agree with you that what is mostly reported (across traditional & social media) is controlled & monitored by the state for sure. They clamp down/get tough on any so called "western propoganda" as they call it.

ABC Radio did a recent live cross last week @ 4am to a female journalist based there in Moscow - she called it as it was as didn't hold back in what she reported about current Ukraine situation & consensus.

People in Russia are still going about their daily lives as normal - what about impact of sanctions !? what sanctions lol as having no impact there whatsoever.

Russian's terribly miss McDonald's Golden Arches as restaurant chain sold & re-branded under new Russian licensee owner Alexander Govor to continue operations as a burger restaurant chain (it ain't the same though).

P.S. I should add I'm not Russian (far from it) but did hook up with a lovely Russian girlfriend in my younger year's so reason I ended up going there lol Always wondered what happened to her since & what if etc. such is life

 

[3 hound]

Possibly, or maybe you’re ignorant to what is happening inside Russia, the full control of traditional and social media by the state, and the paranoia.

Did you read the article I posted, which discusses the facts.

Imagine if the world governments stood up to Hitler’s Nazi regime in 1935.

I suggest you read the article written by people with a lot more knowledge and resources than you have.

How World War III became possible

A nuclear conflict with Russia is likelier than you think.

www.vox.com

Simple fact all your propaganda can't get around the fact Ukraine is the corrupt playground the west full of resources for us to plunder and if we didn't keep encroaching on it and then Russia would not have invaded it.

We are causing the suffering of the Ukranian people, the suffering of our own people thru sanctions and we are edging the world closer to a possible nuclear world war.

 

[JohnDe]

Simple fact all your propaganda can't get around the fact Ukraine is the corrupt playground the west full of resources for us to plunder and if we didn't keep encroaching on it and then Russia would not have invaded it.

We are causing the suffering of the Ukranian people, the suffering of our own people thru sanctions and we are edging the world closer to a possible nuclear world war.

I see we are on opposing sides.
You with Russia and China with their ‘propaganda’ and dictators.
Myself with democratically elected governments and the peoples will for a free and just society. You may call this ‘propaganda’ but it’s always the protagonists that uses that term first.

 

[3 hound]

I see we are on opposing sides.
You with Russia and China with their ‘propaganda’ and dictators.
Myself with democratically elected governments and the peoples will for a free and just society. You may call this ‘propaganda’ but it’s always the protagonists that uses that term first.

No this is your own mis-characterisation that is completely inaccurate....it's almost as bad as your "for all those blaming western governments" old man shaking his first at the sky while rambling incoherently moment .

please try and do better.

 

[JohnDe]

No this is your own mis-characterisation that is completely inaccurate....it's almost as bad as your "for all those blaming western governments" old man shaking his first at the sky while rambling incoherently

“Ukraine is the corrupt playground the west”, interesting how you like pointing the finger at the “west” ?

 

[3 hound]

You would

“Ukraine is the corrupt playground the west”, interesting how you blame the “west” ?

Your use of the word "blame" sounds overly emotional as much as it is irrelevant and complete nonsense - you are the only one using the word in this thread.

Given you are the only one using the word it appears you are only arguing with yourself.

 

[JohnDe]

You would


Your use of the word "blame" sounds overly emotional as much as it is irrelevant and complete nonsense - you are the only one using the word in this thread.

Given you are the only one using the word it appears you are only arguing with yourself.

Ok, how about this - your words “Ukraine is the corrupt playground the west”. And my new response for you - interesting how you like pointing the finger at the “west” ?

 

[JohnDe]

Ukraine is the corrupt playground the west

 

[againsthegrain]

“Ukraine is the corrupt playground the west”, interesting how you like pointing the finger at the “west” ?

You don't get more corrupt then Russia, Putin owns 90% of the country. It also happens that the corrupt Ukrainian government has been a Russian puppet government seeded there by Putin and given the green light. This is exactly why the people had enough and came out to the streets to throw out Viktor Yanukovych who was later found to have a stash in his mansions like Escobar.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

When Ukrainian forces drove back the Kviv attacks early in this conflict, Russia called it a "successful completion of phase 1".

Now, the #SnakeIsland retreat is branded as a "good will gesture".

Looking forward to the next mangling / distortions.

 

[JohnDe]

"The Russian advance is slow and costly. With nato-calibre weapons, fresh tactics and enough financial aid, Ukraine has every chance of forcing back Russia’s armies. Even if lost territory will be hard to retake, Ukraine can demonstrate the futility of Vladimir Putin’s campaign and emerge as a democratic, Westward-looking state. But to do so it needs enduring support. And that is still in doubt."

How to win Ukraine’s long war
After doing well early in the war, Ukraine is losing ground. What next?

Ukraine won the short war. Mobile and resourceful, its troops inflicted terrible losses and confounded Russian plans to take Kyiv. Now comes the long war. It will drain weapons, lives and money until one side loses the will to fight on. So far, this is a war that Russia is winning.

In recent days its forces have taken the eastern city of Severodonetsk. They are advancing on Lysychansk and may soon control all of Luhansk province. They also threaten Slovyansk, in the north of next-door Donetsk. Ukrainian leaders say they are outgunned and lack ammunition. Their government reckons as many as 200 of its troops are dying each day.

Fortunately for Ukraine, that is not the end. The Russian advance is slow and costly. With nato-calibre weapons, fresh tactics and enough financial aid, Ukraine has every chance of forcing back Russia’s armies. Even if lost territory will be hard to retake, Ukraine can demonstrate the futility of Vladimir Putin’s campaign and emerge as a democratic, Westward-looking state. But to do so it needs enduring support. And that is still in doubt.

On the face of it, a long war suits Russia. Both sides are using huge amounts of ammunition, but Russia has vastly more. The Russian economy is much larger than Ukraine’s and in far better shape. In pursuit of victory, Russia is willing to terrorise and demoralise the Ukrainians by committing war crimes, as it did by striking a shopping mall in Kremenchuk this week. If needs be, Mr Putin will impose grievous suffering on his own people.

However, the long war does not have to be fought on Mr Putin’s terms. Potentially, Ukraine has vast numbers of motivated fighters. It can be supplied by the West’s defence industry. In 2020, before sanctions, the economies of nato were more than ten times bigger than Russia’s.

Ukraine’s turnaround begins on the battlefield, by stopping and reversing the Russian advance. Mr Putin’s generals will continue to have more weapons, but the sophisticated nato systems now arriving have longer range and greater accuracy. By adopting tactics devised in the cold war, when nato too was outnumbered by the Red Army, Ukraine should be able to destroy Russian command posts and supply depots. Ukraine scored a success on June 30th, when it used nato weapons to drive Russian forces off Snake Island, a strategic prize in the Black Sea. It should aim to impose a “hurting stalemate”, in which it takes back similarly symbolically important territory, such as the city of Kherson, imposing a heavy price on Russia.

If Russia starts to lose ground on the battlefield, dissent and infighting may spread in the Kremlin. Western intelligence services believe that Mr Putin is being kept in the dark by his subordinates. He has a habit of replacing his commanders—reportedly including General Alexander Dvornikov, brought in after the invasion’s first chaotic weeks. The West can raise the cost to Russia of a long war by continuing to press sanctions, which threaten lasting harm to Russia’s economy. It can split Russia’s elites from Mr Putin by welcoming dissenters from business and politics, and encouraging them to see that their country should not throw away its future on a pointless and costly campaign.

Will the West stay the course? At a summit on June 23rd, the European Union awarded Ukraine candidate status, promising a deep level of engagement over the next decade. At another summit in Germany this week, the g7 affirmed and strengthened sanctions against Russia. And at a third in Madrid, nato acknowledged the Russian threat by substantially increasing its presence on the alliance’s eastern front.

Yet Ukraine is a heavy burden. Western defence industries are formidable, but struggle to produce large volumes, especially of ammunition. Ukraine’s government has a monthly deficit of $5bn and the country will need rebuilding after the war. Public support for Ukraine in the West will be buffeted by a host of pressures, from inflation to elections—including, as soon as 2023, campaigning in America that may involve a presidential bid by that Ukrainophobic Putin admirer, Donald Trump.

And the global costs of a long war will grow. Mr Putin has been blockading exports of grains and sunflower oil from Ukraine’s ports, which will cause unrest and starvation in poorer importing countries. He seems to be trying to create gas shortages in the eu this winter by preventing members from building stocks over the summer. If unity falls apart over energy, as eu states hoard gas, it will disintegrate over Ukraine, too. To complicate matters further, nato members worry that if Ukraine gains the upper hand, Mr Putin will escalate. That could draw them into a catastrophic war with Russia.

You can see where Mr Putin is heading. He will take as much of Ukraine as he can, declare victory and then call on Western nations to impose his terms on Ukraine. In exchange, he will spare the rest of the world from ruin, hunger, cold and the threat of nuclear Armageddon.

To accept that deal would be a grave miscalculation. Ukraine would face permanent Russian aggression. The more Mr Putin believes he has succeeded in Ukraine, the more belligerent he will become. He set out his ambitions in a speech this month, smirking as he talked about how Peter the Great seized parts of Sweden. He will fight tomorrow with whatever weapons work for him today. That means resorting to war crimes and nuclear threats, starving the world and freezing Europe.

The best way to prevent the next war is to defeat him in this one. Leaders need to explain to their people that they are not only defending an abstract principle in Ukraine, but also their most fundamental interest: their own security. The eu needs to shore up its energy markets so that they do not fracture next winter. Ukraine must have more weapons. The risk of escalation today is real, but if a bad peace is forced on Ukraine Mr Putin’s nuclear threats will not stop. They will only become more dangerous, especially if Russia’s conventional forces are at a disadvantage.

In the long war ordinary Russians will suffer and Ukrainians endure unspeakable pain for Mr Putin’s vanity. To prevail means marshalling resources and shoring up Ukraine as a viable, sovereign, Western-leaning country—an outcome that its defiant people crave. Ukraine and its backers have the men, money and materiel to overcome Mr Putin. Do they all have the will?

 

[Sean K]

So, this is still unfolding, as I expected.

A Russian strategic feint to the North while they come in from the South and East.

I think their objective is to gain all territory East of the Dnipro River, with a stretch goal of making Ukraine landlocked, which will be very difficult.

Ultimately, I think there will be a ceasefire, and peace talks, and Russia will succeed in gaining territory where there are Russian speakers. But, Ukraine will have a piece if the Black Sea.

A better outcome, IMO, is Russia collapses. This will require a massive sacrifice from the West and China staying out of the fight.

 

[bluekelah]

So, this is still unfolding, as I expected.

A Russian strategic feint to the North while they come in from the South and East.

I think their objective is to gain all territory East of the Dnipro River, with a stretch goal of making Ukraine landlocked, which will be very difficult.

Ultimately, I think there will be a ceasefire, and peace talks, and Russia will succeed in gaining territory where there are Russian speakers. But, Ukraine will have a piece if the Black Sea.

A better outcome, IMO, is Russia collapses. This will require a massive sacrifice from the West and China staying out of the fight.

Unfortunately USA might collapse before Russia does with uncontrolled hyperinflation and likely big recession/stagflation coming, as well as loss of USD dominance.

Russia will always be backed by China which is now the rising superpower, their ruble has recovered very sharply after the gold peg and now at 5 years highs. Russia has also switched to Chinese payment systems since sanctions started.

China has Unionpay to rival visa and CIPS to rival swift. Plus digital yuan vs paper USD, which is being used more and more within the BRICs nations and will likely gain a lot of global trade acceptance in the near future and could likely replace the petro-dollar system. Recent NATO labelling china as a security threat will just push China into helping Russia.

IMO the endgame for Russia is to make sure Aegis Ashore nuclear capable system does not have a chance to get built in Ukraine. And if possible, get NATO to remove the soon to be completed second site in Poland. The first site in Romania completed in 2015, I am sure the Russians not liking that one either. These so called defence sites are tomahawk missile launch capable and can be loaded with nuclear warheads if needed. These can reach major Russian cities.

It is a very similar situation to the 1960s cuban missile crisis where Russia built nuke launch sites in Cuba in response to secret nuke launch sites built by Americans in Turkey which were aimed at russia. Only this time NATO is at Russia's doorstep. I believe the next POTUS will have to sit down with Putin to hash out something in order to end the war in Ukraine, either that or Russia wil just slowly take down city by city. I am not sure why Russia is not just turning off the water supply and winning outright. Perhaps they just want to drag the war on and cause hyperinflation and cause EURO and USA economies to crash.

 

[3 hound]

The war and suffering for everyone will stop instantly if NATO simply say Ukraine will never be a part of NATO either directly or via the current proxy membership.

 

[qldfrog]

The war and suffering for everyone will stop instantly if NATO simply say Ukraine will never be a part of NATO either directly or via the current proxy membership.

Would not have started, but honestly, would not blame Russia for not trusting that:
the Minsk resolutions were broken in no time.
They're better off getting a buffer.And why stopping now that they are on a stronger position.
I doubt it will end so easily now, and do not forget the tactical nuke wild card.
And you can trust no one,US & EU included

#Yesterday Russia annonced the fall of Lyssytchansk,
#within half an hour at 18:32 Paris time the khaki actor president was denying it during a talk with our own joker Albanese.
WTH! Do we really need to get involved with loser sides all the time?
#At 19:02...30 min later ,the Ukrainian army admitted "withdrawal"..probably meaning captured/killed if recent history is a guide

I understand Propaganda is integral part of war but a bit of truth could increase credibility of various sides...
For references:
Time line from https://www.leparisien.fr/internati...ect-03-07-2022-2DZTF6463NEUPMHQOGBESROFQE.php

 

[3 hound]

Would not have started, but honestly, would not blame Russia for not trusting that:
the Minsk resolutions were broken in no time.
They're better off getting a buffer.And why stopping now that they are on a stronger position.
I doubt it will end so easily now, and do not forget the tactical nuke wild card.
And you can trust no one,US & EU included

#Yesterday Russia annonced the fall of Lyssytchansk,
#within half an hour at 18:32 Paris time the khaki actor president was denying it during a talk with our own joker Albanese.
WTH! Do we really need to get involved with loser sides all the time?
#At 19:02...30 min later ,the Ukrainian army admitted "withdrawal"..probably meaning captured/killed if recent history is a guide

I understand Propaganda is integral part of war but a bit of truth could increase credibility of various sides...
For references:
Time line from https://www.leparisien.fr/internati...ect-03-07-2022-2DZTF6463NEUPMHQOGBESROFQE.php

Our gov would never lie about our progress. Look at all the vast stockpiles of WMD's we found in Iraq and how successfully we won the war in Afghanistan.

 

[JohnDe]

The war and suffering for everyone will stop instantly if NATO simply say Ukraine will never be a part of NATO either directly or via the current proxy membership.

The war & suffering will stop instantly if Putin and Russia stop their illegal incursion/invasion and war crimes.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is illegal under international law​

​

Apologists for the invasion have focused on the West’s ‘provocation’ of Russia, particularly through its expansion of NATO to include Eastern European states such as Croatia, Estonia and Poland.​

​

But focusing on the reasons why Russia feels threatened by the West confuses causation with justification. In addition, by referring only to the reasons why Russia supposedly feels threatened, and failing to address the legal position at all, the South African government, the governing African National Congress – and other apologists – undermine the most cardinal rule of our international legal order.​

​

Russia has not suffered an armed attack from Ukraine, or, indeed, any state. Neither NATO’s presence in Ukraine nor any of the other justifications offered by Russia and its apologists reach the threshold of an armed attack. This includes a range of allegations. These cover the alleged mistreatment by Ukraine of Russian speakers in that state, alleged links between the West and the far-right in Ukraine, and the alleged presence of sophisticated weapons in the state.​

​

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is, therefore, illegal.​

How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Violates International Law

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine violates the UN Charter and cannot be justified under international law as an act of self-defense or humanitarian intervention.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine violates Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, a central tenet of the charter that requires UN member states to refrain from the “use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.”

The suggestion by President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials that Russia’s use of force is justified under Article 51 of the UN Charter has no support in fact or law. Article 51 provides that “nothing in the present charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a member of the United Nations.” However, Ukraine did not commit or threaten to commit an armed attack against Russia or any other UN member state. Even if Russia could show that Ukraine had committed or planned to commit attacks on Russians in the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, Article 51 would not permit an action in collective self-defense, because Donetsk and Luhansk are not UN member states. Indeed, they do not even qualify as states under international law, despite their purported secession from Ukraine and Russia’s recognition of them as independent.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

 

[sptrawler]

The World tour continues.

 

[The Triangle]

My tax dollars should be spent on Australians not Ukrainians. Has Albanese sorted out all the bush fire and flood victims? A few hundred million would go a long way to engineering controls in NSW and QLD. Would buy a few firetrucks too. But hey, just keep printing money like the liberals.

Ukraine war: Australian PM visits Kyiv, pledges more military aid

Anthony Albanese visited the devastated towns of Bucha and Irpin, describing what he saw as a 'war crime'.

www.bbc.com