Craton
Mostly passive, contrarian.
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To bypass sanctions, Russia has passed a law that legalizes the Grey Market allowing Parallel Imports,
Multinational Brands such as Apple, Tesla, GMC, HP and Sony have all announced that they intend to EXIT RUSSIA. They have SHUT their factories in Russia and STOPPED the EXPORT of all products to Russian markets. However the Russian Authorities have now PASSED A LAW which allows the IMPORT of BRANDED PRODUCTS without the BRAND OWNER'S CONSENT via the GRAY MARKET. As a result these businesses have now LOST CONTROL OF THEIR BRANDS and will be unable to prevent the sale in Russia. In this video I look at what the GRAY MARKET is, which brands are affected, what the legal position is and what the likely outcome will be.
And the best commentator on the war, as a WAR, is Perun.A nice interactive map of the conflict from Military Land.
And the best commentator
And the best commentator on the war, as a WAR, is Perun.
However, don't expect mere minutes, as Perun is an analyst with few peers, eg.
Glad you've both posted about this Aussie. His vids are very insightful and well presented.Yes he is pretty good. Interesting but not surprising a gamer can use those talents honed in that sphere in other ways.
Following one of his vids "The Chieftain" presented an alternative view referencing one of Perun's vids and comments. All done without denigrating any particular view.
and I found this interview with Henry K to articulate the realpolitik quite wellRussian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to annex occupied southern and eastern Ukraine directly into the Russian Federation in the coming months. He will likely then state, directly or obliquely, that Russian doctrine permitting the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory applies to those newly annexed territories. Such actions would threaten Ukraine and its partners with nuclear attack if Ukrainian counteroffensives to liberate Russian-occupied territory continue. Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would restore Russian deterrence after his disastrous invasion shattered Russia's conventional deterrent capabilities.
"There were rumors that I hanged myself in a cell." – Viktor Marunyaka, the headman of Kherson released from captivity, spoke about torture and interrogations he experienced
Viktor Marunyak, the headman of Stara Zburyevka, was abducted by Russians and tortured for several weeks. Finally, together with his wife, he managed to evacuate.
He speaks about captivity:
They brought me to one of the bases - "Zburovsky Corner". I was kept there for the first three days. The room was cement, and cool. The first night we slept standing up. They beat me for the first day, then the second day and the third.
Then we slept while sitting. They could only give us a cup of tea in the morning – the whole meal for the day. For two, three hours they were keeping us undressed. Then they say, now we will go to the river, you will swim and you will drown. Or they point a gun at one of us and say, “Whether you will speak up or not. Let's shoot him now."
On the fourth day, they put a sack over our heads and took us away. Moved to Kherson. There they have beaten us again. Then they brought an anesthetic phone that produced current. They started to beat me with a significant current. Somehow they do it all with pleasure. Several more interrogations followed.
Then they took me to our district back, I went to the hospital. I’ve stayed there for ten days. My relatives lived near the hospital. I spent the night there, washed my face for the first time, and ate something. I was able to call my wife because for three weeks she didn't know where I was at all. Nobody knew. There were rumors that I hanged myself in the cell. While I was gone, my wife had two searches. Either searches, or looting. They stole everything from food to gold.
And two days ago they were looking for me again in the village. We already left, and got out just in time. And three days ago, the door was broken in the house, because there was a rotation. They left with the loot, and now they are robbing new houses…
am not sure you can blame Sri Lanka on the Russia-Ukraine thingThe repercussions of the war in Ukraine are bankrupting countries around the world.
Sri Lanka is the first to fall. It won't be the last.
Sri Lanka is the first domino to fall in the face of a global debt crisis
The south Asian country is the first to buckle under economic pressures compounded by Russia’s war on Ukraine, but it won’t be the lastwww.theguardian.com
more importantly it would probably allow a flood of counterfeits , which i doubt the Russians would mind as long as they were paying 'cheap, knock-off' pricesTo bypass sanctions, Russia has passed a law that legalizes the Grey Market allowing Parallel Imports,
McDonald's has started the process of selling its Russian business, which includes 850 restaurants that employ 62,000 people, making it the latest major Western corporation to exit Russia since it invaded Ukraine in February.
Also, don't forget the threats to the companies and the employees and their families if companies didn't comply with Moscow's directives!Some Western companies have agreed to sell their Russian assets or hand them over to local managers as they scramble to comply with sanctions over the Ukraine conflict and deal with threats from the Kremlin that foreign-owned assets may be seized.
How will this impact?French carmaker Renault has sold its Russian assets to the Russian government, the company announced Monday, the first major nationalization of a Western company’s assets since Moscow threatened to punish those leaving the country over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Purchasing managers’ indices and the global economy
PMIs are forward-looking indicators meant to signal the direction of activity in the manufacturing industry. They are composed of sub-indices such as output, new orders, export orders, employment, pricing, inventories, pipelines, and sentiment. A reading above 50 indicates growing activity; the higher the number, the faster the growth—and vice versa.
- The global manufacturing industry suffered a deceleration in activity in April, according to the latest purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) from IHS Markit. In fact, growth of activity in the global industry hit the lowest level since August 2020, largely due to a sizable lockdown-related slowdown in China.
The global PMI fell from 52.9 in March to 52.2 in April, the lowest since August 2020. The deceleration was driven by an absolute decline in output and a deceleration in new orders and employment. In addition, the global sub-indices for input and output prices indicated an acceleration of inflation in April, likely the result of disruption from the war in Ukraine as well as lockdowns in China. Of the 20 countries analyzed, the highest PMIs were in the Netherlands, United States, Australia, Austria, and Canada. The lowest PMIs were in China, Mexico, Myanmar, Taiwan, and Brazil. Only China and Mexico had PMIs below 50 indicating declining activity.
The most notable PMI report came from China. There, the manufacturing PMI fell from 48.1 in March to 46.0 in April, a level indicating a rapid decline in activity and the lowest PMI since the start of the pandemic. The sub-index for output fell at the steepest pace since February 2020 when China was largely locked down. It fell from 49.5 in March to 44.4 in April. There was also a sharp decline in new orders, dropping from 48.8 in March to 42.6 in April. Export orders fell to the lowest level since June 2020. In addition, the time it takes for inputs to be delivered to manufacturers increased sharply, indicating renewed supply chain trouble. Some companies reported the cancellation of orders due to difficulty in producing and transporting products. Despite this, there was an increase in backlogs.
All these difficulties were entirely due to the imposition of severe restrictions on activity meant to quell transmission of the virus, including the severe lockdown in Shanghai, China’s financial hub. Although survey respondents indicated optimism over the long-term, they also expressed concern about how long current restrictions would last. This remains unknown.
The troubles in China, as well as the war in Ukraine, led to a sharp decline in the manufacturing PMI for neighboring Taiwan. There, the PMI fell from 54.1 in March to 51.7 in April, a level indicating modest growth in activity. The sub-indices for output and employment indicated a decline. The sub-index for new orders showed no direction while the sub-index for export orders declined sharply. Only the sub-indices for delivery times and inventories improved. The health of Taiwan’s manufacturing sector is a good indicator for the global technology industry. The decline in Taiwan’s PMI shows how the lockdowns in China are affecting this key industry.
The lockdowns in China also affected Japanese manufacturing, but not as much. Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell from 54.1 in March to 53.5 in April. This indicates a healthy rate of growth. Output was mostly unchanged as were new domestic orders. However, export orders dropped sharply, mainly due to the situation in China. That, and the war in Ukraine, added to supply chain disruption. The survey found a sharp decline in business confidence among Japanese manufacturers.
Growth of manufacturing activity remains strong in the United States and Europe, although there was a sizable deceleration in Europe in April. In the eurozone, the manufacturing PMI fell from 56.5 in March to 55.5 in April, a 15-month low but still a number indicating strong growth. The decline in the eurozone was largely due to supply chain disruption which led to soaring input prices and shortages. This was especially true in Germany which saw a very sharp decline in its PMI to a 20-month low. German automakers have been disrupted by lack of access to components made in Ukraine. France, Italy, and Spain faced less difficulty. Although the overall PMI for the eurozone remained healthy, the sub-index for output showed no increase in production.
Finally, the US manufacturing sector performed well in April. The manufacturing PMI increased from 58.8 in March to 59.2 in April, the highest level in seven months and one indicating rapid growth in activity. Evidently, the United States has not been as badly affected by events in Ukraine and China as other parts of the world. In April, there was strong growth of output, new orders, export orders, employment, and business confidence. Markit commented that “demand from consumers and businesses is proving encouragingly robust despite severe inflationary pressures, which intensified further during April.” Markit concluded that growth of economic activity in the second quarter is likely to be good, even as inflation gets worse.
Let’s focus on China. The services PMI for China fell from 42.0 in March to 36.2 in April, the second lowest on record and a level indicating a catastrophic decline in activity. This was entirely due to lockdowns that limited mobility and production. The sub-indices indicate a decline on both the demand and supply side of the services industry. There was a decline in output and a severe decline in new orders. Travel restrictions meant a paucity of export orders. Employment fell modestly and backlogs of work increased as the pandemic had a negative impact on supply chain efficiency. Input prices were up but output prices fell. The latter meant that service enterprises, facing limited demand, were compelled to cut prices in order to attract sales. Interestingly, the sub-index for business sentiment was positive, meaning that businesses were optimistic that the current crisis will ultimately pass. Meanwhile, the weakness of both the services and manufacturing PMIs (the latter was 46.0 in April) bode poorly for GDP growth in the second quarter.
- The latest purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for services in major countries demonstrates that the pattern of growth in this industry is hugely influenced by how governments react to the pandemic. Economic restrictions prevent people from going to restaurants and theaters, while easing of restrictions has the opposite effect. In China, the services PMI fell to the second lowest level on record in April, indicating a collapse in activity largely due to the various lockdowns that are currently in place. In the eurozone, however, the continued removal of government restrictions led to an acceleration in services activity in April, with the eurozone services PMI at 57.7, an eight-month high and a level reflecting rapid growth in activity. In the United States, growth of services remained strong but declined somewhat, hitting 55.6 in April, following a rapid surge in March. In India, services activity grew very rapidly following further removal of restrictions. The April PMI was 57.9.
Ukraine's soldiers leave Mariupol's Azovstal steelworks, declares end to longest battle in war with Russia
Troops holed up in the last Ukrainian stronghold in the besieged port of Mariupol have begun evacuating, appearing to cede control of the once prosperous city to Russia after months of bombardment.
Ukraine's military command said in the early hours on Tuesday that the mission to defend the Azovstal steel plant by "the heroes of our time" was over and it pledged to rescue servicemen still trapped inside.
"The 'Mariupol' garrison has fulfilled its combat mission," the general staff of Ukraine's armed forces said in a statement.
"The supreme military command ordered the commanders of the units stationed at Azovstal to save the lives of the personnel."
Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Anna Malyar said 53 injured troops from the steelworks were taken to a hospital in the Russian-controlled town of Novoazovsk, some 32 kilometres to the east.
Another 211 people were taken to the town of Olenivka, in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatists, she said.
All of the evacuees will be subject to a potential prisoner exchange with Russia, she added.
Reuters saw five buses carrying troops from Azovstal arrive in Novoazovsk late on Monday.
Footage showed various buses with red crosses and the "Z" symbol transporting Ukrainian servicemen.
There was no immediate word on whether the wounded would be considered prisoners of war.
Some troops 'severely wounded'
Some of the evacuated troops were wounded and carried out of the buses on stretchers.
About 600 troops were believed to have been inside the steel plant.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Monday a "difficult" day.
"We hope that we will be able to save the lives of our guys," Mr Zelenskyy said in a late-night address.
"There are severely wounded ones among them. They're receiving care. Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive."
"The work continues to bring the boys home, and this work needs delicacy. And time," he added.
Ukrainian troops say they held out in Azovstal for 82 days, buying time for the rest of Ukraine to battle Russian forces and secure Western arms needed to withstand Russia's assault.
But the evacuation likely marked the end of the longest and bloodiest battle of the Ukraine war and a significant defeat for Ukraine.
There has been no immediate response from Russian authorities to the developments in Azovstal.
I regard Mariupol as a defining moment in the impotence of the west.As per the ABC, a defeat... of sorts.
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