U.S. Portfolio

[Duarte]

In this thread I will share trade ideas, charts, notes, and some viewpoints.

The U.S.Portfolio is a market timing portfolio designed to get profit with market trends.

The portfolio invests in companies, exchange traded funds (ETFs), leveraged ETFs, and Inverse ETFs listed on United States Stock Exchanges.

In order to see what is going to happen before it takes place the U.S. Portfolio has an important rule:

“All trade ideas and stop loss orders must be sent to this thread, with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening, and automatically placed on the market after the market opens. The orders will be executed at the opening price, except in the case of stop loss orders."

I consider 5 USD per buy or sell order.

The start value of the portfolio is 35 000 USD.

For this work I will use my experience, memory, intelligence, technical indicators, some are proprietary other are familiar to all people as Relative Strength Index, MACD or Stochastic Oscillator, and some fundamental indicators.

I will try my best …

Avoid “end of race” mistakes. If things are not going well I will not put too much money in stock market. Cut my losses instead of hoping that market will come back. Not play like an addict. I will be objective. I will be an investor or a trader, whatever is considered most advantageous in a particular situation. I will control emotions, apply the reason, not repeat mistakes, and think for myself.


That ´s it.

I'll start it soon.

 

[Duarte]

I looked for the US stocks on my watch list, and I saw that the large majority is in overbought zone.
For that reason, I'm going to wait a little longer so I can get a better idea of what the market is going to do.

 

[Duarte]

Some time ago, I have done a longer-term analysis.
Now, I've done a little update.

Chart 1 - S & P500 index monthly candlestick chart between January 1966 and March 2013.

My guess about what is happening is that the S & P 500 since 2000 is following the path between 1968 and 1983.
This suggests that the S&P 500 may rise in the long term.

Chart 2 - The following chart shows the Price ROC indicator between January 1966 and March 2013.

The triple bottom pattern that the indicator did in 1994 was repeated between 2011 and 2012.
After the triple bottom pattern in 1994, the S&P 500 rose during 5 years.
This also suggests that the S&P 500 may rise in the long term.

 

[Duarte]

My guess is that the S&P 500 will rise to its resistance line, close to the level of 1575.
That said, in the very short term I have doubts that the market will rise.

 

[So_Cynical]

I looked for the US stocks on my watch list, and I saw that the large majority is in overbought zone.
For that reason, I'm going to wait a little longer so I can get a better idea of what the market is going to do.

Seriously Duarte...you had to look at a US watchlist to realize that the market has had a bit of a run up?

been living in a cave for the last 5 months?

 

[CanOz]

Seriously Duarte...you had to look at a US watchlist to realize that the market has had a bit of a run up?

been living in a cave for the last 5 months?

lol......:sleeping:

 

[Duarte]

Seriously Duarte...you had to look at a US watchlist to realize that the market has had a bit of a run up?

been living in a cave for the last 5 months?

living in a cave??? 5 months????

I think that message was not directed straight at me
....

 

[Duarte]

A few days ago, I had a problem with the computer battery charger, but its ok now.
Next week, I ´ll start making trades.

 

[Duarte]

Now, I am going to look again closely for the period between January 1968 and January 1985, as well as, for the period between November 1999 and March 2013.

 

[Duarte]

I compared the previous period with the current period, and I came to the conclusion that the S&P500 after reaches its resistance line (key value: 1575) can follow the path 1 or 2, in the first chart.

 

[Duarte]

Today, the U.S. Portfolio will start.

I ´ll buy DLPH, RWT, EXH, ERX, XIV, UPRO, and EDC.

 

[Duarte]

Below are the annotated charts:

 

[Duarte]

 

[Duarte]

The current U.S. Porfolio

 

[Duarte]

VELOCITYSHARES DAILY INVERSE VIX (XIV) reached my stop.

The current portfolio:

 

[Duarte]

Tomorrow, I will buy again XIV (VELOCITYSHARES DAILY INVERSE VIX)
(I will try again.)

 

[peter2]

I wanted to let you know that someone is watching. Good luck and stick to your trading plan. You do have one don't you?

My first impressions are that you are getting into the trend a bit late and using a reasonably tight initial SL. This combination will produce many quick losses as the markets have a tendency to pull back quite often. It will be very important that you manage to get a few large wins. I'll be watching your trade management as you continue.

You've come to the right forum if you want more accountability and critical examination.

I notice you are investing a set amount for each trade and placing your SL about 3-5% away. I hope you are aware that the price volatility may be very different in each market. A 3-5% exit stop might be OK with a low volatility market (like an index) but may be inappropriate for a leveraged ETF, or higher volatility stock. A good example of this is your first closed trade on the XIV market which didn't last one day. Is the VIX (the real one) going to go up slowly or fast? I think the volatility can go up fast and down slowly as people are more fearful initially and take longer to calm down. If you agree, then think about what this means for your trade in the inverse vix ETF (XIV).

 

[Duarte]

DIREXION DAILY EMERGING MARKETS (EDC): The stop price has been reached.

Current portfolio:

 

[Duarte]

peter2

Thank you for your message.
Yes, I have a plan, is a kind of decision making method.

On 25 February, XIV fell by more than 16 percentage points, and I had to take that into account.
I placed the stop which I believed to be correct at that time.

The market has gone up, but the portfolio started a few days ago and, because of this, I need to be even more cautious.

 

[Duarte]

I will use stop loss orders very close to the current price, while the S&P 500 index remains below 1625.