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TZN - Terramin Australia

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I must add because of the above reasons I decided to lift my stop to just under the latest bar, i was only in for a quick ride up and was not going to stuff around in what I interpreted as a short term toppish looking chart and negative short term market conditions but usually my stop would've been lower. I hope this explains things a bit better. Cheers
 
Expect big things from this stock,

It will be the Next PEM KZL ZFX type play,

Angas Feasibility will really catch the market off guard, huge profit will be generated by this Zinc Project
 
You should have a look at AIM...

more potential there if u ask me...

from my research, by fiscal 2008, the company would generate $209million in net revenue...

very low costs, only usd0.18c per lb... profits of $1usd per pound maybe??

june 2007 production...

and dont forget copper/gold JV with BHP...

NPV (worked out by pros, see their announcements) = 38.6cps... so its trading at 14cps, big discount to NPV...

Directors buying, and looK at the top 20 shareholders:

BHP, JP Morgan and ANZ Nominees are biggest shareholders... they do their research...

I did consider terramin but i think this one has more potential....

Good luck...
 
Hmmm not sure about AIM,

But I have done a full comparitive analysis for JML and TZN

if someone tells me how I will upload an Excel Document showing this,

TZN should have a value of $1.35 - $2 based on NPAT of between $20 -$30m using a PER of 6x (as the mine life is 7yrs)

Thats just its Angas Project where the new feasibility is due out very soon, previous one was EBIT of $111m using Zinc price $1,500t and deposit 1/4 qtr the size what it is now, ie new feasibility will be based on Zinc of $2,200 t + (note spot $2,400+) and deposit 4x as big (due to lots and lots of drilling)


Now in Africa they have acquired a 60% interest in Oued Amizour, a project that has been identified as 30mt @ 5.5% Zn + 1.4% Pb which would give that deposit an in ground value of $3.5billion AUD, thats $3.5Billion but note this project is ery early stages requiring new drilling to confirm previous drilling and estimates and the value is simply in ground, ie not NPV at all.


As I said, let me know how to upload an excell file and you can see how I crunched the numbers
 
Had a look at AIM,

has bot 750m shares on issue (fully diluted) @ 14c = $100m approx

vs TZN 90m shares on issue (fully diluted) @ say 80c = $72m

Now AIM will need about $100m AUD toget its Perkoa project off the ground,

TZN only needs $35m to get Angas off the ground as Sempra Metals (Largest Metals offtake trader in the world) has provided $10m finance

AIM has BHP, JP Morgan and ANZ, TZN has Macquarie and Sempra,

TZN also has its blue sky from its blue sky with Oued Amizour, 30mt @ 5.5% Zn + 1.4% Pb which would give that deposit an in ground value of $3.5billion

Based on what AIM says in report project has NPV of $200m AUD approx, given fully dilluted status of AIM = 28c a share, maybe a bit more,

I still think TZN is the better of the two
 
Here,s my valuation,

I will add AIM and UCL to it as well
 

Attachments

  • Zinc playoffs.xls
    24 KB · Views: 15
Here's an updated sheet I did before,


Comments,

JML: Is also reliant on Copper for its revenue, due to the fact that later on in 2006 we will see huge surpluses for Copper the price will not hold at current levels for too long. However may see a bidding war for Takeover by OXR and CSM, Project is fully funded, unhedged and construction is well underway, JML represents the lowest risk of the four, with good long term returns in store.

AIM: Project looks the goods, but requires huge levels of finance and may not be able to come on line until mid 2008, stock has also run strong from 7c - 14c

TZN: Angas is as they a done deal, it will come on line and funding required is only $35m, has Macquarie and Sempra in its stables so funding not an issue, Angas alone should underwrite a value of $1.35, Real blue sky comes from North African project which has an in ground value of $3.5b

UCLThe largest project by far, requiring the most funding by far and in Iran which makes it the riskiest by far!
 

Attachments

  • Zinc playoffs.xls
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Forgot to add,

TZN is a 3 Project Company.

Project 1: Angas should generate Net Rev of about $20m min p.a.

Project 2: Mennine JV with ZFX, with ZFX earning 70% by spending $8m

Project 3: Oued Amizour, TZN 65% interest, Previous Estimates of 30mt @ 5.5% Zn + 1.4% Pb, with a high grade area of 11mt @ 11% Zn + 3% Pb
 
Stock has broken above previous high of 85c level, to now 90c level, is going upwards on expectations of feasibility studies, up 20% since I started recommending it 2-3 days ago and believe me its only just begun.
 
I hope you are right but I sold 25% of my holding today as insurance, but intend to hang on for medium - long term to see how it works out
 
Closes @ Record High Price ahead of feasibility study results, Feasibility results should blow mkt away, $1 will not be standing by Next Friday
 

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YOUNG_TRADER said:
Closes @ Record High Price ahead of feasibility study results, Feasibility results should blow mkt away, $1 will not be standing by Next Friday
Click to expand...



It may not be standing by today or tomorrow, anyone here buy on my recommendation? If so please send $100 as a fee to. 54321 Zinc Lift Off Street, Teramin 3000 Vic Austalia,
 
Also for those who didn't see it earlier,

My little Zinc 'Playoffs Sheet'
 

Attachments

  • Zinc playoffs.xls
    30 KB · Views: 16
YOUNG_TRADER said:
... up 20% since I started recommending it 2-3 days ago ...
Click to expand...

YT,
Please be careful with the wording of your posts, despite the disclaimer in your signature. It's best not to suggest you are recommending stocks as I assume you are not qualified to give financial advice. Note that the fact that the stock has gone up is irrelevant. Just a friendly reminder, we can all get carried away from time to time. All the best.
 


FAIR ENOUGH,

Please replace the word "Recommendation" with the words "Insane Plethora of Random Words"

Oh and stock almost tested $1 today
 
I say keep it up YOUNG_TRADER! Your "random plethora of words" has made me quite a bit of money in the past, and if you're ever in Sydney I'll shout you a few $100 worth of drinks!
 
ctp6360 said:
I say keep it up YOUNG_TRADER! Your "random plethora of words" has made me quite a bit of money in the past, and if you're ever in Sydney I'll shout you a few $100 worth of drinks!
Click to expand...


Good to know, happy I could be of service, was it just on TZN or orthers?
 
Ohhh forgot to add,

Stock is holding well above 90c support level, watch for a strong break above $1 for a new uptrend,

I think once Uranium Fever goes quiet people will realise that GOLD AND ZINC!!!! are at record levels and the only way is up for Zinc due to medium term supply constraints.
 
ZINC up again, suprise suprise,


Don't overlook this Macquarie and Sempra backed Emerging Zinc Power House!

I did an very rough valuation on the company earlier in this post, save the excel sheet and use it to plug and play numbers as the AUD/USD changes and/or Zinc prices go up (or down)
 
Stock has consolidated well in the 95c level (give or take)


With Zinc @ $3,000 US/t

This will certainly be a power house player very soon

Now where's that feasibility study!



TZN is a 3 Project Company.
With 90m shares on issue

Project 1: Angas should generate Net Profit of about $20m p.a. @ 7x per = $140m or $1.50 a share

Project 2: Mennine JV with ZFX, with ZFX earning 70% by spending $8m

Project 3: Oued Amizour, TZN 65% interest, Previous Estimates of 30mt @ 5.5% Zn + 1.4% Pb, with a high grade area of 11mt @ 11% Zn + 3% Pb
 
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