This link takes me to the Market HQ website, but I can't find the interview. Any clues?
Without actually hearing it, I assume the $50b market is for normal dumb bolts and screws, and not the 'intelligent' ones. I couldn't find the costs of the intelligent fasteners, you need to call the company, but how much more are these things going to cost? I assume quite a deal more. 10 times? 20 times? Interesting that he thinks that several % of industry is going to choose to spend that sort of money for a more efficient lock, or bolt.
Perhaps the $50b market is just in the areas that the technology will be adapted readily, such as aerospace and defence? Looking forward to finding the interview...
Anyone who heard it have an opinion there?
They're winning lots of nice trophies, but they do need to convert that into winning revenue, which I'm sure they will, but how much? Forecasted revenue seems a little vague at the moment. What we do know is that they are currently losing quite a bit of money, which I'm sure this several % of a $50b industry will fix rather quickly.
And, just my 2c on pe's and a comparison with Google. While they are both 'tech', isn't Google an internet company, while this has propriatary technology to make remote control locks and bolts, and furniture? Looks like completely different business models to me. Perhaps we need to find a closer peer in the tech sector to do a fairer comparison.
Thanks for the chart Kennas.
To address your points one by one
1) Without having paid the $4k for Freedonia report
, I assume it is referring to a $50billion market for traditional fastenings. I can't dispute the figure, however, just looking at the numner of fastenings that were used in my house and car, I cannot for the life of me believe a figure of $50billion is anything but conservative.
One thing we have to remember about Intelligent fastening is that it will increase this market value. For example if a plane currently uses 10,000 $1 cast iron fasteners i.e $10k worth, and then TZ come along with Intevia which is twice as expensive ($20k) but reduces weight and increases security and saves maintenance time, then we can see that the market has just increased.
There are many such examples as the above. Dickory Ruddock also patented an intelligent fastening for wine bottles. Surely corks weren't included in the Freedonia report. The benefit of this application is that if used in bars/clubs, it would automatically measure exact servings and also log which bartender served what. Not only does this have security benefits, but can also be developped into an automatic stock management/purchasing system.
Another example is the tool paths required in automobiles to allow mechanics to service vehicles. If the fastenings were automatic, these tool paths would not be required and thereby save car manufacturers cost. These manufacturers would pay more for fastenings if it means a saving of costs in other areas.
The above 3 examples are the premise behind Intevia, when I say that it can change the way we live our lives and therefore increase this $50billion market beyond what us mere mortals thought imaginable.
2) The interview has 'disappeared', but the link to it still appears in TZ's website which is very strange. It isn't the first strange thing I have seen with TZ. Maybe because it wan't announced to the market?
3) Cash: TZ raised $24million and have just had the redemption of DKR's convertible notes underwritten. For a 'shot in the dark' company to raise these kind of funds when other companies are having trouble finding funding, really gives us a clue as to what the funders found when they did their DD.
Yes TZ are spending money. As they have stated when the funds were received from QVT, that it will be used to commercialize Intevia. From next month, when the Larson Doors shipment is made, we can expect TZ to be cashflow positive.
4) Business models. I only used Google as a NASDAQ example. There are smaller companies with p/es in the hundreds and bigger (Microsoft) with p/es in the 'teens. It is very difficult to find a comparison to TZ as it is a disruptive technology. The closest I have found is First Solar (FSLR) which has gone from a $1.5billion company to $20 billion (p/e 180) company in 18 months. This is based on the revolutionary thin film solar technology. However, even they have competitors. TZ do not.
The bottom line, is that TZ's technology has to be worth more than the $4.60 which it is trading at. Intevia is a great Australian invention which is unfortunately appreciated by the Oz market.