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TWE - Treasury Wine Estates

TWE exec's being very diplomatic but they must be seething as China continues to play games with the Aust wine industry.

When China stops playing with the wine industry TWE is going to be a great buy. Not for me. Too much China risk.
 
TWE exec's being very diplomatic but they must be seething as China continues to play games with the Aust wine industry.
This now seems to have blown up with the share price down 11.25% today and the company's shares placed in a trading halt.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-27/china-puts-tariffs-on-australian-wine-trade-tensions/12886700

The Chinese Government has announced it will place tariffs on all Australian wine imports from tomorrow, striking a blow to the $1.2 billion-a-year industry.

The deposits, which effectively work like tariffs, will range from between 107 per cent to more than 200 per cent.

Anyone have thoughts on what the company's shares ought really be worth given the circumstances? I'm thinking that China isn't their only market presumably?
 
This now seems to have blown up with the share price down 11.25% today and the company's shares placed in a trading halt.
I bought yesterday of course not good timing on my behalf.

No real idea of where it will drop to, but I will look to grab a few more when it gets dumped.
 

I posted my thoughts on 29 January 2020.

There might be a point at which TWE is worth buying. I'll wait for the technical indicators to think about that.
 
With Australia running to the WTO about China, I can't see many trade conditions getting better.
In fact, if we keep being a "pestilence" to them, I don't wish to point out the consequences.
Any stocks where the product is being sold to China is off limits now to me personally.
Just recipes for disaster.
 
Today TWE became the best performer on ASX (ASX 200) - 17.45 % following yesterday's result declaration.
When i looked into it
Headline says
EBITS down and so is EBITS margin.
NPAT down 24% and so EPS down by 24%
But price up.
Was it because 1H2 expectation is very high and market has discounted TWE price miserably low already ?
I was guessing (as always) the worst could have been over and only couple of days back or so, bought a small lot @$10. With NCM sliding down with few others, TWE helped to keep the stability.
Could the experts and TWE holders/followers please provide commentary on TWE and how market got so excited ?
Thanks





 

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I have no idea @Miner, its not a business I have ever had any interest in, but a quick look at its metrics and its not a business I would pay $10 for, I dont have explanations for much of what goes on in the current market, but being up nearly 20% on those results is batshit crazy!

Given my lack of knowledge it will probably be up another 20% tomorrow!!
 
@galumay I reckon the whole night research will bring down TWE to normalcy.
I should have sold out with massive gain over two days hod even there will be a tax.
But my luck, price rises when I sell and drops down when I hold.
I do not believe TWE would go up by any percentage after reading the reports.
Only silver linings are CEO's bombardistic optimism (must have the best wine consumed) and hint of breaking the business into product base.
I noticed Motley on its free website quoted Citi's prediction of TWE value being $8.62 and SELL. I never rely on Citi nor MF.
Sharing just for fun to show how wrong the white collared instos are or could be

 
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Hey miner, wine is like everything else these days, this generation doesnt give a rats what it taste like as long as they get muted.
Same with antiques and collectibles all heading to the tip bro.lol
Trying to sell $20 bottles in asia is hard and trying to sell it in Aus is harder, the ones who bought it ie older aussies, are struggling with crap interest rates.
Penfolds wont get on the gravy train for 5 to 10 years.
Just my opinion
 
stumble with China; then let's make it in the US

The 19 Crimes brand, which is heavily linked in its marketing with American rapper Snoop Dogg, has been a star performer for Treasury Wines. A new 19 Crimes Cali Red and Cali Rose which features Snoop Dogg’s face on the label brought a flood of new buyers.
 
and indeed it has.

TWE shareprice is up 50% from the dark days of Xi argy-bargy last year.

Now, 18 months after the tariffs and the insults from China TWE’s 2020-21 profit beat expectations with growth restored despite losing nearly $80 million in earnings due to China’s tariffs.

Treasury said in its profit release on Thursday net profit after tax, excluding significant items and accounting standard SGARA, grew 3% to $309.6 million for the year, slightly ahead of forecasts and an improvement on last year when earnings dropped 25% as the impact of the China lockout hit hard.

Total sales at the business fell 3% to $2.5 billion but the company managed to boost margins and earnings from other markets, especially the US and Australia.

TWE declared a 13 cents per share final dividend, up 62.5% increase on the prior year’s 8 cents a share final dividend; along with the 15 cents a share interim, total dividends for the year will equal 2019-20’s 28 cents a share.

TWE said it had lost $77.3 million in earnings in China thanks to the tariffs, but noted this was mostly offset by growth across other regions in Asia such as Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand. Total earnings for the region fell 15%.

Treasury’s US business performed strongly, raising its earnings by 23% to $168.3 million, thanks largely to the company’s mid-priced Premium Brands division.

Australian earnings rose 10% to $142.7 million. CEO Tim Ford said the result was a testament to Treasury’s resilience in the face of a tough year.

TWE took advantage of solid cash flows to knock $376.5m million off net debt to $1.057 million at the end of June.


 
Matthew Kidman: Welcome to Buy Hold Sell. My name is Matthew Kidman. And today, we’re going to review the profit reporting season - the best and some of the worst. And to talk about it, we’ve got Blake Henricks from Firetrail and Michelle Lopez from abrdn.

Michelle, let’s start with you. Treasury Wines, I thought it was all over. China said no more wine from Australia, but it’s done pretty well. The result was quite good. Buy, hold or sell?


Michelle Lopez (HOLD): It has done well, so it’s a hold. And to give credit where credit is due, they have done a phenomenal job in pivoting their sales from China into other parts of the market, particularly with their Penfolds brand. The issue that we see from here is that margins are going to stabilise, but they’re going to stabilise lower. And they’re facing some pretty significant cost increases. Yes, we’ve got the increases from the supply chain, which is affecting everyone, but they’ve also got fires and droughts that they’ve been battling. And then when you look at the valuation, we just don’t think that there is much upside from here. It’s trading about at a 15 per cent discount to its long term forward PE. So it’s a hold.

Matthew Kidman: Treasury was one of those ones, Blake, that there was not a lot of great expectations around. It came out, a bit better. Bang! It was up around 10 per cent on day one. Buy, hold or sell?

Blake Henricks (HOLD): It’s a hold for us as well. I mean, I’ve never been so wrong about something in my life. When they lost China I just thought, we’ll come back in five years and maybe we’ll mend fences and they can get it. But they’ve actually re-allocated 50 per cent of those China sales back into other parts of Asia. They think, in the next two years, they will have re-allocated 100 per cent. So, management has done an amazing job. I think the question is still going to be about sustainability. So you’ve got to do your work and work out how sustainable you think that’s going to be.
 
Trying to give the French a run for their money?

 
I once considered holding TWE, not anymore. Too many storm clouds, but they have done an excellent job of holding the SP at a reasonable level even if it is a roller coaster.

 
Justice prevails.

 
Management at TWE have decided to produce and wines in China and sell it under the Penfolds name. Disgraceful, I say.

China hit them with a huge tax, so TWE decide to show China how to grow and produce our best.

Penfold's founders will be turning in their graves. There has been a bit of a backlash from Aussie customers. I wonder how far this will go.

 
Recent talk that China may resume buying Aussie coal had me buying some wine. Not by the bottle but the company (TWE). Unfortunately there is no rock lobster listed company so I just have to buy them to eat them immediately. Washed down with some wine naturally.

If the China wine tariffs are removed TWE will be rapidly revalued possibly back to ~$19 (old highs).
I think their mgt team have done a remarkable job since the tariffs were imposed.

 

Yep. This looks like a really good trade to me.
 
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