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TSLA - Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ)

Let me take a moment to explain why I think this guy is wrong, and why Tesla is definitely not
Just a “car company”.

Firstly, what is a “Car Company”, I think a car company is a company like Ford who is primarily involved in the mass production of vehicles which it offloads at wholesale rates to third party dealers who earn a retail margin.

This selling cars at wholesale prices, in a super competitive market is what caused the “car companies” to earn low margins and hence have a low return on capital.

BUT,

This is not all Tesla do,

Yes Tesla makes cars just like Ford, But unlike Ford Tesla runs all the dealerships itself, so it also earns the retail margin on its products which Ford leaves for its third party dealers, so it’s a car dealership owner as well as a car company.

Tesla also earns money servicing and repairing its cars, which is a high profit margin business which again Ford leaves to its third party dealers.

Tesla runs a global network of charging stations which generate profits, where as Ford leaves this business to third party petrol station owners.

Tesla is building an insurance company to provide insurance to Tesla owners, Ford leaves this to third party insurance companies.

Tesla sells a monthly internet subscription service to its cars, I don’t think Ford is involved in the communications business.

Tesla sells the self driving software, which could end up being a huge business, Ford if it ever does this will definitely outsource it to third parties.

There is a pathway for Tesla to eventually have a robo taxi network, which would compete with the likes of Uber.

Then there is the no vehicle businesses.

Stationary storage eg home, industrial and grid size batteries.

Solar panels and virtual grid / energy trading.

And they have mentioned they will eventually get into other businesses such as HVAC, which is a huge market.

They are also starting to dabble in other consumer products such as their charging platform they just released, not to mention their exisiting business of producing home car chargers and branded merchandise.
I think some of that reasoning is flawed VC, it isn't that I don't think the product isn't good, but I think it is in a honeymoon period where it is working.
IMO there is a lot of flaws in the business structure that could become exposed, as supporting the business model stretches their resources.
Time will tell.
 
I think some of that reasoning is flawed VC, it isn't that I don't think the product isn't good, but I think it is in a honeymoon period where it is working.
IMO there is a lot of flaws in the business structure that could become exposed, as supporting the business model stretches their resources.
Time will tell.
Which parts of my reasoning and the business model are flawed in your opinion?
 
Let me take a moment to explain why I think this guy is wrong, and why Tesla is definitely not
Just a “car company”.

Firstly, what is a “Car Company”, I think a car company is a company like Ford who is primarily involved in the mass production of vehicles which it offloads at wholesale rates to third party dealers who earn a retail margin.

This selling cars at wholesale prices, in a super competitive market is what caused the “car companies” to earn low margins and hence have a low return on capital.

BUT,

This is not all Tesla do,

Yes Tesla makes cars just like Ford, But unlike Ford Tesla runs all the dealerships itself, so it also earns the retail margin on its products which Ford leaves for its third party dealers, so it’s a car dealership owner as well as a car company.
The Ford operational model is a proven model and a model which most manufacturers use, if it was more cost effective for car manufacturers to operate their own point of sale business model they would do it, wouldn't they?


Tesla also earns money servicing and repairing its cars, which is a high profit margin business which again Ford leaves to its third party dealers.
As you have already stated there is very little servicing to be done, I always remember what the owner of the BMW motor cycle franchise in Perth once told me, "if you ran a business selling parts for BMW motorcycles, you would go broke".
Electric vehicles will need minimal parts, but the overheads for carrying the people with the expertise, the servicing facilities and the associated costs affect the bottom line.
I very much doubt servicing of E.V's will be a money spinner.


Tesla runs a global network of charging stations which generate profits, where as Ford leaves this business to third party petrol station owners.
The charging network may well make money, but as more third party providers enter the market, the Tesla market share will be eroded, well I would think that would be the case. Yet the maintenance of the infrastructure will increase with age and wear.

Tesla is building an insurance company to provide insurance to Tesla owners, Ford leaves this to third party insurance companies.

Tesla sells a monthly internet subscription service to its cars, I don’t think Ford is involved in the communications business.

Tesla sells the self driving software, which could end up being a huge business, Ford if it ever does this will definitely outsource it to third parties.

There is a pathway for Tesla to eventually have a robo taxi network, which would compete with the likes of Uber.

Then there is the no vehicle businesses.

Stationary storage eg home, industrial and grid size batteries.

Solar panels and virtual grid / energy trading.

And they have mentioned they will eventually get into other businesses such as HVAC, which is a huge market.

They are also starting to dabble in other consumer products such as their charging platform they just released, not to mention their exisiting business of producing home car chargers and branded merchandise.
At the moment with the E.V space being in it's infancy, Tesla has the jump on everyone on all aspects E.V, I think a lot of the peripheral services that Tesla currently supplies, which are non core, will be offloaded as the industry matures and margins associated with the non core business become tighter.
Take your example of vehicle insurance, that is a very competitive industry, how will Tesla keep its margins e.g from my understanding there are only two panel shops allowed to repair Tesla's in Perth and from what I heard they have to pay a lot to have that privilege.
I'm not convinced that every panel shop will want to pay to repair their cars, ATM it may work, but ATM there is a lot of money in image and not that many Tesla's in W.A, eventually that novelty wears off and the work load increases.
As I said time will tell and ride the wave while it builds, there is always money to be made, but nothing stays the same. :2twocents
 
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The Ford operational model is a proven model and a model which most manufacturers use, if it was more cost effective for car manufacturers to operate their own point of sale business model they would do it, wouldn't they?



As you have already stated there is very little servicing to be done, I always remember what the owner of the BMW motor cycle franchise in Perth once told me, "if you ran a business selling parts for BMW motorcycles, you would go broke".
Electric vehicles will need minimal parts, but the overheads for carrying the people with the expertise, the servicing facilities and the associated costs affect the bottom line.
I very much doubt servicing of E.V's will be a money spinner.



The charging network may well make money, but as more third party providers enter the market, the Tesla market share will be eroded, well I would think that would be the case. Yet the maintenance of the infrastructure will increase with age and wear.


At the moment with the E.V space being in it's infancy, Tesla has the jump on everyone on all aspects E.V, I think a lot of the peripheral services that Tesla currently supplies, which are non core, will be offloaded as the industry matures and margins associated with the non core business become tighter.
Take your example of vehicle insurance, that is a very competitive industry, how will Tesla keep its margins e.g from my understanding there are only two panel shops allowed to repair Tesla's in Perth and from what I heard they have to pay a lot to have that privilege.
I'm not convinced that every panel shop will want to pay to repair their cars, ATM it may work, but ATM there is a lot of money in image and not that many Tesla's in W.A, eventually that novelty wears off and the work load increases.
As I said time will tell and ride the wave while it builds, there is always money to be made, but nothing stays the same. :2twocents
Remember my point is simply that Tesla is not your average car company.

But,

Fords business model was put in place before the internet, now that people can research and order and trade in cars on line they don’t really need to visit a dealer to do all that.

There is nothing wrong with fords model, it just outsources part of the profit margin, hence their lower profit margin and lower return on capital, imo saying that Tesla and ford should be valued the same way is silly, because they are completely different.

———————
Yes EV’s require less servicing, which makes having a lower amount of service centres / dealership and keeping them company owned viable.

But as I said the ford service centres are outsourced, so very little of servicing centre profits make its way back to ford, but if some one goes back to Tesla for their road worthy and gets new tyres and some brake fluid, that’s Tesla profit, not a third party dealer.

————————

You must admit that the Tesla charging network is the best in the world, and if it continues to scale like those in the USA, and they open it up to others it will be a big driver of cashflow, where as ford has 0% market share in petrol stations.

————————

Tesla plans to make money in insurance by utilising the data it gathers on each drivers performance, it has live data on which cars are driven safely and which aren’t.

Other insurance companies rely on you answering questions and data based on averages based on age sex etc
 
Remember my point is simply that Tesla is not your average car company.

But,

Fords business model was put in place before the internet, now that people can research and order and trade in cars on line they don’t really need to visit a dealer to do all that.

There is nothing wrong with fords model, it just outsources part of the profit margin, hence their lower profit margin and lower return on capital, imo saying that Tesla and ford should be valued the same way is silly, because they are completely different.

———————
Yes EV’s require less servicing, which makes having a lower amount of service centres / dealership and keeping them company owned viable.

But as I said the ford service centres are outsourced, so very little of servicing centre profits make its way back to ford, but if some one goes back to Tesla for their road worthy and gets new tyres and some brake fluid, that’s Tesla profit, not a third party dealer.

————————

You must admit that the Tesla charging network is the best in the world, and if it continues to scale like those in the USA, and they open it up to others it will be a big driver of cashflow, where as ford has 0% market share in petrol stations.

————————

Tesla plans to make money in insurance by utilising the data it gathers on each drivers performance, it has live data on which cars are driven safely and which aren’t.

Other insurance companies rely on you answering questions and data based on averages based on age sex etc
Time will tell what works for them and what doesnt and as per every other business they will adapt and adjust.
I just doubt everything will work as well as you predict, kudos to them and you if they all do.
 
Wow! Great watch. They say that it is the 2nd best product they have seen yet the poor engineering is obvious. It appears Tesla are still well ahead.

That's the difference of in-house development & engineering, compared to outsourcing for the best price.

Ford and all the other traditional manufacturers started outsourcing the development & manufacturing of components for their vehicles in the 1980's. At first it saved the manufacturers a lot of money, as they took work away from their heavily unionised work force. But later, as they became reliant on many and varied private component manufacturers, parts became complex and unreliable.

EVs using complex systems like that Mach E are going to cost a fortune when the warranty runs out, many will lose value very fast. Just like the Euro brands do today.
 
Time will tell what works for them and what doesnt and as per every other business they will adapt and adjust.
I just doubt everything will work as well as you predict, kudos to them and you if they all do.
I am not saying that every business unit they have will work out perfectly, I am just saying that they shouldn’t be ignored when doing the valuation like the guy in the video suggested.

———————
Consider this thought experiment for a moment.

The guy wants to only value Tesla as an auto maker, based on traditional low profit margins of automakers.

Now, Tesla could turn them selves into that style of business if they wanted, but let’s consider how much cash would be generated for investors if they sold off all the other businesses.

Eg.

1. How much would Teslas global supercharger network sell for if we sold it to a third party, along with the rights to continue expanding it an using the Tesla brand?

2. How much would Teslas dealerships sell for if we sold them all off along with territorial rights to be the sole reseller of vehicles in that area?

3. How much would teslas insurance business sell for to a third party, if we also included the rights to the user data?

4. How much would teslas battery factory sell for (because the automakers generally don’t own their own battery factory), if we also included the home and industrial battery business?

5. How much would teslas software company sell for, if you included the rights to all the self driving software, and paid them a fee for their supply of software in the future? Because the other automakers are outsourcing this stuff already.

These 5 things alone are worth billions and billions and may continue to grow, and that is ignoring the blue sky stuff like the possibility of the robo taxi network and Tesla robot.

Most of the car companies don’t even make their own car seats, Tesla makes their own you could say that division could be sold off to.
 
Wow! Great watch. They say that it is the 2nd best product they have seen yet the poor engineering is obvious. It appears Tesla are still well ahead.
I think Elon and his engineers are always looking for improvements, not just trying to get a product into dealerships asap.

Look at the way Elon realises an improvement he could make during this 30 second interview.

 
I think Elon and his engineers are always looking for improvements, not just trying to get a product into dealerships asap.

Look at the way Elon realises an improvement he could make during this 30 second interview.


I'm a big fan of his and he has the runs on the board, all I'm saying is that no business ends up being all blue sky. Not everything works as hoped, if anyone can have a100% success rate Musk can and I hope he does.
Time will tell.
 
I'm a big fan of his and he has the runs on the board, all I'm saying is that no business ends up being all blue sky. Not everything works as hoped, if anyone can have a100% success rate Musk can and I hope he does.
Time will tell.
I agree, but as I said those parts of the business could be sold off today for billions of dollars, leaving Tesla as a straight vehicle assembly and wholesale business. They aren’t blue sky they are very real valuable bankable assets.
 
I am not saying that every business unit they have will work out perfectly, I am just saying that they shouldn’t be ignored when doing the valuation like the guy in the video suggested.

———————
Consider this thought experiment for a moment.

The guy wants to only value Tesla as an auto maker, based on traditional low profit margins of automakers.

Now, Tesla could turn them selves into that style of business if they wanted, but let’s consider how much cash would be generated for investors if they sold off all the other businesses.

Eg.

1. How much would Teslas global supercharger network sell for if we sold it to a third party, along with the rights to continue expanding it an using the Tesla brand?

2. How much would Teslas dealerships sell for if we sold them all off along with territorial rights to be the sole reseller of vehicles in that area?

3. How much would teslas insurance business sell for to a third party, if we also included the rights to the user data?

4. How much would teslas battery factory sell for (because the automakers generally don’t own their own battery factory), if we also included the home and industrial battery business?

5. How much would teslas software company sell for, if you included the rights to all the self driving software, and paid them a fee for their supply of software in the future? Because the other automakers are outsourcing this stuff already.

These 5 things alone are worth billions and billions and may continue to grow, and that is ignoring the blue sky stuff like the possibility of the robo taxi network and Tesla robot.

Most of the car companies don’t even make their own car seats, Tesla makes their own you could say that division could be sold off to.
I don’t know. How much would they sell for?
 
I don’t know. How much would they sell for?
A lot more than the $0 some people want to ascribe to them.

Warren Buffet bought 78 car dealerships selling 240,000 cars back in 2015 for $4.1 Billion, so how much Tesla could sell their global dealership network that is currently selling at a rate of 2,000,000 cars a year for is anyone’s guess. But it would be in the billions.

Then you have to add all the other things I mentioned you could spin off if you really just wanted Tesla to be a pure unintegrated Automaker like the rest.

D3643594-03C2-4D43-ADF7-1B4BA887F588.jpeg
 
This is the main threat to Tesla IMO, the pitchfork crew have been upset, so more and more negative press will be focused on Elon.
This article is supposed to be about cars, but in reality IMO it is just a rant against Musk, it wasn't long ago the media was his greatest support group.
I wonder if the media sentiment, will influence their road testing analysis? :2twocents

From the article:
The new competition makes Musk’s recent role as the town crier for the red-pilled online right especially puzzling and, for his car company, perilous. Musk’s chaotic and polarising tenure as Twitter’s chief executive — during which he’s embraced far-right tropes about gender and journalism and public health, and generally behaved like a rich bully on a power trip — already seems to be battering Tesla’s brand.

The Wall Street Journal reported last month on a survey by Morning Consult showing that perceptions of Tesla have been falling steadily since May, shortly after Musk began his bid for Twitter; between October and November, the period when Musk took ownership of Twitter, sentiment among Democrats toward Tesla plummeted, while favourability among Republicans rose slightly.

It’s hard to disagree. A few weeks ago, I test drove Chevy’s new Bolt EUV, the squat electric crossover that is the slightly larger cousin of the Bolt EV, the entry-level electric car that General Motors began selling in 2016. I was bowled over by the new Bolt electric utility vehicle. I found it surprisingly roomy and much nicer on the inside than its staid exterior would suggest.
I also liked that its interior felt a lot more like a normal car than Musk’s all-touchscreen automotive design style. In the Bolt you can control the air conditioning and other systems with hefty buttons and knobs that are easy to find and manipulate while you’re driving; in a Tesla almost everything is controlled by touching a big screen mounted in the centre console.

The best thing about Chevy’s Bolt EUV: The model I tried, which was kitted out with nearly every available option, including GM’s fantastic driver-assistance program, Super Cruise, carried a sales price of just under $US38,000. Tesla’s cheapest car, the Model 3, sells for upward of $US45,000 ($65,600). As I drove the Bolt, I asked myself a question that came up often this year: With such great alternatives that carry none of Musk’s political baggage, why does Elon keep acting as if customers have no choice — as if he’s the only game in town?
 
As I drove the Bolt, I asked myself a question that came up often this year: With such great alternatives that carry none of Musk’s political baggage, why does Elon keep acting as if customers have no choice — as if he’s the only game in town?
It is a risk.

If he made tweets supporting Biden he would lose a different set of customers. Just dumb to get into politics and in a big way too through Twitter. He is aware though and is no longer making political comments from what I have seen.
 
This is the main threat to Tesla IMO, the pitchfork crew have been upset, so more and more negative press will be focused on Elon.
This article is supposed to be about cars, but in reality IMO it is just a rant against Musk, it wasn't long ago the media was his greatest support group.
I wonder if the media sentiment, will influence their road testing analysis? :2twocents

From the article:
The new competition makes Musk’s recent role as the town crier for the red-pilled online right especially puzzling and, for his car company, perilous. Musk’s chaotic and polarising tenure as Twitter’s chief executive — during which he’s embraced far-right tropes about gender and journalism and public health, and generally behaved like a rich bully on a power trip — already seems to be battering Tesla’s brand.

The Wall Street Journal reported last month on a survey by Morning Consult showing that perceptions of Tesla have been falling steadily since May, shortly after Musk began his bid for Twitter; between October and November, the period when Musk took ownership of Twitter, sentiment among Democrats toward Tesla plummeted, while favourability among Republicans rose slightly.

It’s hard to disagree. A few weeks ago, I test drove Chevy’s new Bolt EUV, the squat electric crossover that is the slightly larger cousin of the Bolt EV, the entry-level electric car that General Motors began selling in 2016. I was bowled over by the new Bolt electric utility vehicle. I found it surprisingly roomy and much nicer on the inside than its staid exterior would suggest.
I also liked that its interior felt a lot more like a normal car than Musk’s all-touchscreen automotive design style. In the Bolt you can control the air conditioning and other systems with hefty buttons and knobs that are easy to find and manipulate while you’re driving; in a Tesla almost everything is controlled by touching a big screen mounted in the centre console.

The best thing about Chevy’s Bolt EUV: The model I tried, which was kitted out with nearly every available option, including GM’s fantastic driver-assistance program, Super Cruise, carried a sales price of just under $US38,000. Tesla’s cheapest car, the Model 3, sells for upward of $US45,000 ($65,600). As I drove the Bolt, I asked myself a question that came up often this year: With such great alternatives that carry none of Musk’s political baggage, why does Elon keep acting as if customers have no choice — as if he’s the only game in town?
Society can’t allow you to be a hero for ever, eventually they will find reasons to demonise you even if you don’t give them the ammunition.

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