TSLA - Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ)

[Knobby22]

Possibly a cheap entry, or a huge dent to the brand. Amusing that it's got this far.

Not amusing for holders. The article was about big investor comments.
Summarising:

1. Telsa at the moment has no CEO as Elon isn't there. Investors want a CEO.
2. (Quote above re branding damage).
3. Opposition car companies getting their sht together.
Competition hotting up.
Not only traditional companies but also BV from China.

4. China story worrisome, spy acusations, actually making trade restrictions limiting sales etc. These guys can't be trusted. Link to this in article.

Still a sell to me.

 

[Value Collector]

This E.V driving certainly is cheap @JohnDe , I've done 2,300km I charge at home and align charging current with solar P.V generation so theoretically it isn't costing.
I have put in 1 paid for charge to make sure the chargefox app is working and that was $2.28 on the 7th Oct, so that is my running cost up until today. $2.28 I can't complain.

I remember one time when I had only owned the ev for a month or two, I had left the house at about 7am to drive around running some errands. I was heading home at about 10am and because I knew it was a sunny day I knew the car was going to recover all those kms I drove from my solar that day.

A feeling energy freedom came over me, I realised I wasn’t tied to the oil men anymore, it was such a great feeling.

What ever Elon Does at Twitter doesn’t take that feeling away from me.

 

[Value Collector]

Not amusing for holders. The article was about big investor comments.
Summarising:

1. Telsa at the moment has no CEO as Elon isn't there. Investors want a CEO.
2. (Quote above re branding damage).
3. Opposition car companies getting their sht together.
Competition hotting up.
Not only traditional companies but also BV from China.

4. China story worrisome, spy acusations, actually making trade restrictions limiting sales etc. These guys can't be trusted. Link to this in article.

Still a sell to me.

 

[omac]

It's a giant bubble deflating, plenty of people are going to be left holding bags, interesting to witness one of the great stock manias and the effect social media has on it all.

 

[Value Collector]

It's a giant bubble deflating, plenty of people are going to be left holding bags, interesting to witness one of the great stock manias and the effect social media has on it all.

What’s your estimated value of TSLA?

 

[omac]

At best it is the average of what other car companies are valued at over a cycle, which from memory is ~ 1x revenue, maybe a bit of a premium for old times sake.

However, reflexivity works in both directions, so I think the downside might get uglier than that.

 

[moXJO]

.

Still a sell to me.

It's the AI potential.
He has a huge amount of data.
I could care less if he's a dck.
Jobs was a massive prck but still brilliant.

 

[Value Collector]

At best it is the average of what other car companies are valued at over a cycle, which from memory is ~ 1x revenue, maybe a bit of a premium for old times sake.

However, reflexivity works in both directions, so I think the downside might get uglier than that.

I don’t think revenue is a good way to value a company, profit is the more important indicator, but with a company growing as fast as Tesla is, it’s value is going to based on its future profit.

When you look at the speed they have been increasing production, and the multiple different business verticals they are involved in, they is a very large scope to where profit can go.

In the last 5 years they have expanded their original factory to maximum capacity, and built 3 more larger factories (Shanghai, Texas, Berlin) which all are in the process of ramping up.

It’s a bit like trying to saying back in 2010 Apple should have been valued at 1 x revenue because that was what Nokia was valued at.

—————————

I am not saying Tesla is cheap or expensive, I don’t really know either way, but I am confident they will keep growing.

I sold half my Tesla shares just before they reached their peak, because they had more than doubled since I bought in and I thought it was worth taking some capital off the table, but I am happy holding the remaining holding.

 

[Value Collector]

I just took a look at their Revenue, and look at this revenue growth!!!

Even people valuing them based on their revenue should be able to see that the revenue growth is ridiculously high, and would have to be raising their valuation by large amounts on a quarterly basis.

We aren’t talking about a stodgy old auto company fighting to maintain its market share with wafer thin profit margins, we are talking about a company growing it’s market share at super fast rates, with fat profit margins involved in multiple different businesses.

 

[sptrawler]

The only grey cloud on Tesla's horizon IMO is the establishment, the old money.
Let's be honest NASA has been doing the space thing for a long time and Tesla trumped them with space x and re usable rockets.
The E.V's 2012 everyone was getting fed up with useless battery operated tools, let alone E.V's, what a joke everyone thought, what a muppet.
In 50 years time i'm sure Musk will be recognised in the same way as Alexander Bell, Edison etc, the guy is a visionary, did I buy any? No I was sceptical, but I'm first to admit I'm impressed.
Whether he survives the establishment attack, is yet to be seen, not many do.
But if anyone can, he can, he is a lot smarter than Trump and a lot smarter than the most of the people out to get him IMO.

 

[moXJO]

Im waiting on $120, but see if it's going to hold at this level. There should be supportClosed out some puts and bought some more stock (stuff all as only small option position). I'm over trying to trade to free carry. And it's still a loss despite how I pay for the stock. I'm addicted to doing it at the moment on tsla. But there's better profits elsewhere. Growth plays are not going anywhere just yet.

Elon is now going against the democrats pretty hard which is insane if you are a tech company and the dems are in government. I'm expecting some more down if he keeps it up.

He has always had nothing but trouble from tweeting. Even if it keeps him in the news cycle. He needs to moderate his bias and go back to the occasional troll.

 

[JohnDe]

Even though it took a few days for the update to arrive to our car, the timing worked well as we were just about to hit the road for a 4 hour journey in the Model Y—it was the perfect opportunity to put all the new features to the test!

 

[noirua]

Tesla falls over 6% to $115.00 in the states. Simon Cawkwell aka Evil Knievel forecast $50 and was laughed at at the time - it may come to pass.

Live Price Charts:
Day: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=N^TSLA&t=1&p=0&dm=0&vol=0&width=405&height=187&min_pre=330&min_after=240

Long Term:

https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=stat...idth=405&height=187&min_pre=330&min_after=240

 

[noirua]

Shares of Tesla Inc. fell about 9% in morning trading to its lowest point in more than two years after the company suspended car production at its Shanghai plant on Saturday.

The stock traded as low as $112.23 a share on Tuesday. Shares are down about 68% this year and more than 41% lower this month, on pace for the stock's worst month on record.

The stock is on pace for its lowest close since September 2020.

The decline comes after The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla extended a planned eight-day production halt at its Shanghai plant, its largest worldwide factory by car output.

Tesla Shares Fall to Fresh Two-Year Low Over China Production Pause

By Will Feuer Shares of Tesla Inc. fell about 9% in morning trading to its lowest point in more than two years after the company...

uk.advfn.com

 

[moXJO]

I missed trading yesterday. I'd have bought a few at that price as it looked like a bottom for now. But who knows. I think final quarter results soon?

Also government subsidies on evs are also next week?

 

[Trader X]

Interesting analysis of Tesla's 70% share price collapse and review of FSD (misnomer and sacred cow). Is Tesla a car company or technology company? When "Tesla's auto segment accounted for 85% of its total revenue and an outsized 96% of its total gross profit in its most recently reported quarter" the conclusion must be it's a car company and car companies are generally not good businesses to invest in. Tesla shorts are cashing in on the high conviction that Tesla was in fact a tech company instead of a grossly mispriced EV car company.

 

[Value Collector]

Interesting analysis of Tesla's 70% share price collapse and review of FSD (misnomer and sacred cow). Is Tesla a car company or technology company? When "Tesla's auto segment accounted for 85% of its total revenue and an outsized 96% of its total gross profit in its most recently reported quarter" the conclusion must be it's a car company and car companies are generally not good businesses to invest in. Tesla shorts are cashing in on the high conviction that Tesla was in fact a tech company instead of a grossly overpriced EV car company.

Let me take a moment to explain why I think this guy is wrong, and why Tesla is definitely not
Just a “car company”.

Firstly, what is a “Car Company”, I think a car company is a company like Ford who is primarily involved in the mass production of vehicles which it offloads at wholesale rates to third party dealers who earn a retail margin.

This selling cars at wholesale prices, in a super competitive market is what caused the “car companies” to earn low margins and hence have a low return on capital.

BUT,

This is not all Tesla do,

Yes Tesla makes cars just like Ford, But unlike Ford Tesla runs all the dealerships itself, so it also earns the retail margin on its products which Ford leaves for its third party dealers, so it’s a car dealership owner as well as a car company.

Tesla also earns money servicing and repairing its cars, which is a high profit margin business which again Ford leaves to its third party dealers.

Tesla runs a global network of charging stations which generate profits, where as Ford leaves this business to third party petrol station owners.

Tesla is building an insurance company to provide insurance to Tesla owners, Ford leaves this to third party insurance companies.

Tesla sells a monthly internet subscription service to its cars, I don’t think Ford is involved in the communications business.

Tesla sells the self driving software, which could end up being a huge business, Ford if it ever does this will definitely outsource it to third parties.

There is a pathway for Tesla to eventually have a robo taxi network, which would compete with the likes of Uber.

Then there is the no vehicle businesses.

Stationary storage eg home, industrial and grid size batteries.

Solar panels and virtual grid / energy trading.

And they have mentioned they will eventually get into other businesses such as HVAC, which is a huge market.

They are also starting to dabble in other consumer products such as their charging platform they just released, not to mention their exisiting business of producing home car chargers and branded merchandise.

 

[mullokintyre]

Let me take a moment to explain why I think this guy is wrong, and why Tesla is definitely not
Just a “car company”.

Firstly, what is a “Car Company”, I think a car company is a company like Ford who is primarily involved in the mass production of vehicles which it offloads at wholesale rates to third party dealers who earn a retail margin.

This selling cars at wholesale prices, in a super competitive market is what caused the “car companies” to earn low margins and hence have a low return on capital.

BUT,

This is not all Tesla do,

Yes Tesla makes cars just like Ford, But unlike Ford Tesla runs all the dealerships itself, so it also earns the retail margin on its products which Ford leaves for its third party dealers, so it’s a car dealership owner as well as a car company.

Tesla also earns money servicing and repairing its cars, which is a high profit margin business which again Ford leaves to its third party dealers.

Tesla runs a global network of charging stations which generate profits, where as Ford leaves this business to third party petrol station owners.

Tesla is building an insurance company to provide insurance to Tesla owners, Ford leaves this to third party insurance companies.

Tesla sells a monthly internet subscription service to its cars, I don’t think Ford is involved in the communications business.

Tesla sells the self driving software, which could end up being a huge business, Ford if it ever does this will definitely outsource it to third parties.

There is a pathway for Tesla to eventually have a robo taxi network, which would compete with the likes of Uber.

Then there is the no vehicle businesses.

Stationary storage eg home, industrial and grid size batteries.

Solar panels and virtual grid / energy trading.

And they have mentioned they will eventually get into other businesses such as HVAC, which is a huge market.

They are also starting to dabble in other consumer products such as their charging platform they just released, not to mention their exisiting business of producing home car chargers and branded merchandise.

Somebody much wiser than me once said "never fall in Love with a Stock".
I am afraid you are head over heels VC.
Mick

 

[Value Collector]

Somebody much wiser than me once said "never fall in Love with a Stock".
I am afraid you are head over heels VC.
Mick

Not at all, (I am in love with the products, but not my investment)

I bought about $60K USD of Tesla back in 2020, Sold half of it after it had tripled in price close to the peak because I thought it was getting getting over valued and I was never confident with its true valuation because it’s a bit beyond my circle of competence.

So I wouldn’t say I am in love with the stock, I was totally happy to sell it based on valuation, but also happy to keep the other half free carry for its future potential.

—————————

The day I bought the $60K I was tossing up between Tesla and Berkshire, by buying Tesla I was able to sell 50% of the Tesla and end up with more Berkshire than I would have gotten had I just invested the whole amount in Berkshire up front, plus I have my remaining Tesla as a bonus, which I am happy to hold and watch the company keep growing.

————————-

But saying all that, which parts of my breakdown of teslas business do you think I got wrong?

 

[Value Collector]

Somebody much wiser than me once said "never fall in Love with a Stock".
I am afraid you are head over heels VC.
Mick

In addition to my other response to this statement I made above, I also wanted to point out that although “Never fall in love with a stock” is something that many traders repeat, none of these traders have an investment record as brilliant as Warren Buffet.

Now, if you have ever heard Warren Buffett talk about some of his companies such as See’s Candy, Coca Cola or Geico insurance it’s hard to say that he is not head over heels for these companies.

Warren has actually publicly stated that he will never sell a single share of the Coca Cola company, and both sees candy and Geico which he owns 100% of are permanent parts of Berkshire and will never be sold.

So yeah, if the worlds greatest investor can fall in love with companies sometimes I don’t think it’s the worst thing, some companies are trully wonderful businesses that it doesn’t make sense to sell.

Am I saying Tesla should be in this category… No, as I said I did sell some of mine, But I do love driving around in the product, and so far haven’t found a better product. I am might by the Apple car if that ever becomes a thing, but would still be worried about not having access to the Tesla charging network, as I showed in the electric car thread it’s a network that is scaling up quite well, and is a big selling point.