TRY - Troy Resources

[So_Cynical]

$1000 worth of TRY with a Limit of $1.95 a share. Personally I think it's already a bargain and am happy to wait out any short term volatility for a good company.

A limit buy above the close of 1.87 ok so some times its nice to be first in the cue... hasn't worked out to well for me over the last 6 years, im a 'let the price come to me' kinda guy...1000 bucks hey, the brokerage is gona be a killer. 1.5 > 2% down straight up.

Good luck.

 

[G Gekko]

Thanks So_Cynical. I only have a bankroll of $5000 to start with, so $1000 makes up 1/5 of my portfolio. I aim for an approach of value investing so will not be looking to day trade... that is unless they made some sort of massive discovery and the share price went up by 300% or something.

Interesting comment on my limit. I'm going to observe the movement of the SP closely and see if I would have been better off going with your approach. If so (and it's probably likely)... I will probably adopt that in future.

Thanks very much.

 

[Intrinsic Value]

Very Noobish

Troy is taking over Azimuth...so its the Azimuth shareholders that will accept or reject the offer.

If you own a stock that has received a take over offer you can sell on market at close to the offer price or not sell until your shares are compulsorily acquired...or sell directly to the company making the takeover at the price declared by them, though often this is done on market.

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As for Troy i am very keen to get back into my favourite stock, these guys are superstar mine developers...however i have learnt to be patient so ill wait for a price under $1.50

I think you are right about waiting. The gold price has somewhat recovered over the last week or so yet the gold mining stocks are still heading down. How far are they going to go down if gold goes down again is anyones guess. I jumped a bit early buying SLR last week when I knew I really should have waited. Gold stocks are risky but I still think that sooner or later when all the money printing stops gold will come back in favour and good quality miners like TRY will do very well. In the meantime there could still be some considerable down side.

 

[jimbowan]

Yep Intrinsic I agree the charts for all the miners still look a mess. I jumped into RSG and NST over the last couple of weeks, timed my entries pretty well but think I might have been better waiting a bit (RSG down 5% today for instance), all miners have been very volatile so waiting for the stock to drop for you has proven a sound strategy S_C.

TRY at 1.80 as I write this, its tested 1.72 recently and as I said the chart is a mess. This is my last targeted mining buy of this GOLD drop, I think unlike my previous 2 buys I am going to wait on TRY as I think there is further downside ahead, potentially 1.40-1.50 is my gut feel.

All hinges on the POG really...

Any technical gurus want to weigh in on a potential entry?

 

[G Gekko]

I think you are right about waiting. The gold price has somewhat recovered over the last week or so yet the gold mining stocks are still heading down. How far are they going to go down if gold goes down again is anyones guess. I jumped a bit early buying SLR last week when I knew I really should have waited. Gold stocks are risky but I still think that sooner or later when all the money printing stops gold will come back in favour and good quality miners like TRY will do very well. In the meantime there could still be some considerable down side.

Hi Intrinstic,

Don't you view governments printing money as a catalyst for gold prices to rise? If the AUD was being devalued for example I know I would personally invest in either precious metals or the sharemarket to retain the value of my money while everyone else who keeps their money in the bank has their cash worth less today than it was yesterday. Devaluing a currency reduces purchasing power, so essentially by buying gold I'm retaining whatever cash I have now creating the illusion that I'm actually making more local currency than before.

 

[prawn_86]

Don't you view governments printing money as a catalyst for gold prices to rise? If the AUD was being devalued for example I know I would personally invest in either precious metals or the sharemarket to retain the value of my money while everyone else who keeps their money in the bank has their cash worth less today than it was yesterday.

Look at what M3 money supply has done. Inflation also hasnt kicked in despite all this money printing, and what has the POG done in the last 2 yrs?

 

[Intrinsic Value]

Hi Intrinstic,

Don't you view governments printing money as a catalyst for gold prices to rise? If the AUD was being devalued for example I know I would personally invest in either precious metals or the sharemarket to retain the value of my money while everyone else who keeps their money in the bank has their cash worth less today than it was yesterday. Devaluing a currency reduces purchasing power, so essentially by buying gold I'm retaining whatever cash I have now creating the illusion that I'm actually making more local currency than before.

Yes I do but it may take some while to kick in because Japan are also on a big money printing exercise along with the US and Europe so it still might be a year or more away from this playing out in favour of the gold price and hence the gold stocks.

You have to be prepared to hang tough as prices might dip substantially in the interim. In which case you might want to buy more if you are convinced of a turnaround.

 

[G Gekko]

You have to be prepared to hang tough as prices might dip substantially in the interim. In which case you might want to buy more if you are convinced of a turnaround.

I was thinking that. Maybe if/when it does get to $1.50 it might be worth buying more.

Thanks!

 

[So_Cynical]

k:
I just placed my first order for when the market opens tomorrow. $1000 worth of TRY with a Limit of $1.95 a share. Personally I think it's already a bargain and am happy to wait out any short term volatility for a good company.

So did you get filled at the open? $1.89? Troy got to a low of $1.79 ~ 10 cents is a big difference...5.2% is worth waiting for....personally i hate it when i don't buy at near the days bottom or sell at near the days top.

Limit orders in a falling market (gold stocks) work best when low balled....pick an ambitious target and go for it.

 

[G Gekko]

Yes I bought in at $1.89. In hindsight everything you've said has been correct... and it's a great learning exercise. I still have faith that I bought in for a good price as there hasn't been anything new that has changed my mind about what I perceive to be its true value. I really might consider buying more of it if the price continues to drop significantly. Company directors are buying, substantial shareholders are also buying.

Thank you for all your helpful feedback!

 

[Trembling Hand]

. Devaluing a currency reduces purchasing power, so essentially by buying gold I'm retaining whatever cash I have now creating the illusion that I'm actually making more local currency than before.

But you haven't bought gold you have bought a gold miner. Their cost will rise directly with a devaluing currency therefore more than likely Devaluing margin and profit. Miners are a poor way to play Gold IMO.

 

[mr. jeff]

So did you get filled at the open? $1.89? Troy got to a low of $1.79 ~ 10 cents is a big difference...5.2% is worth waiting for....personally i hate it when i don't buy at near the days bottom or sell at near the days top.

Limit orders in a falling market (gold stocks) work best when low balled....pick an ambitious target and go for it.

Yes but don't miss a trade for half a cent or miss selling a parcel for 0.5%. Many times I have put in an order to sell at a level which is within reach between the day high and low never to see it filled. Worse, if you only get a partial fill and the market moves against you the next day, you lose twice the brokerage plus the market change.

Gold conditions not looking very promising based on the US comments overnight. Might be more of a chance to buy lower still.

 

[So_Cynical]

Yes I bought in at $1.89. In hindsight everything you've said has been correct... and it's a great learning exercise. I still have faith that I bought in for a good price as there hasn't been anything new that has changed my mind about what I perceive to be its true value.

Yep well every day is a new day and a lesson to be learnt...your into the best small/midcap Gold miner in Australia at under $1.90 and eventually you will be in profit, just mite take a little while, Gold moves slowly and the SP of miners can move even slower.

 

[skyQuake]

Yep well every day is a new day and a lesson to be learnt...your into the best small/midcap Gold miner in Australia at under $1.90 and eventually you will be in profit, just mite take a little while, Gold moves slowly and the SP of miners can move even slower.

Why do you think its one of the best? Its costs/oz arent that low, and in hindsight Azimuth looks expensive and dilutive. Plus all that silver isnt helping it much in this climate.

 

[So_Cynical]

Why do you think its one of the best? Its costs/oz arent that low, and in hindsight Azimuth looks expensive and dilutive. Plus all that silver isnt helping it much in this climate.

Best as in Best, the best at what they do.

Read back over my posts in this thread..look at the company history, Troy bought a gold mill in Cobar Western NSW cheap maybe 8 or 9 years ago, took the opportunity to buy a bargain then waited 3 years for a suitable project to deploy it.

Just so happens that that project was in the Western Desert of Argentina, from the purchase of the Casposo project to first pour was something like 21 months...Casposo was just 30 drill holes a dirt track and a tent when Troy took over, and they financed it with only like 25 mill in debt and no hedging. (from memory)

The debt was paid off within 16 months (from memory), These guys have never held less than 20 million in cash for the last half a decade, often near twice that amount...look at the dividend history and compare to others.

Troy are superstar Gold miners, one rights issue in the last 7 years, regular dividends, no debt, cash reserves...they treat investors with respect, they don't make mistakes and don't do stupid things.

 

[nulla nulla]

I know you are a contrarian SC but chasing this one is really out there.......(imo).

Since October last year they have dropped from $5.00 to a recent low of $1.715. This is a fall of more than 60%. Then again you'd imagine they couldn't fall much further, eh?

 

[So_Cynical]

I know you are a contrarian SC but chasing this one is really out there.......(imo).

Since October last year they have dropped from $5.00 to a recent low of $1.715. This is a fall of more than 60%. Then again you'd imagine they couldn't fall much further, eh?

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It was out there when i bought Troy for 70c per share to ended up making almost 400% on that one...just looked at the 5 yr POG chart and interestingly POG was around $1350 back in Oct 2010, at that time TRY was trading at around the $2.50 level...is Troy a more valuable company now with the SP significantly lower and Gold significantly higher???

No cap raisings since 2009, operating with record revenue, profit and holding record reserves..Troy is a superstar miner and bargain buying at around the $1.50 level (IMO) if we see that... Fundamentally Gold is still a goer, nothing has changed on that front just the POG.

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I Believe we are being offered a magnificent opportunity to buy into the Gold bull, for me a second bite of the Cherry...this time im sticking with the cream stocks TRY and NCM is all im interested in...and i want to pay $1.50 and $15.

 

[nulla nulla]

It was out there when i bought Troy for 70c per share to ended up making almost 400% on that one...just looked at the 5 yr POG chart and interestingly POG was around $1350 back in Oct 2010, at that time TRY was trading at around the $2.50 level...is Troy a more valuable company now with the SP significantly lower and Gold significantly higher???

No cap raisings since 2009, operating with record revenue, profit and holding record reserves..Troy is a superstar miner and bargain buying at around the $1.50 level (IMO) if we see that... Fundamentally Gold is still a goer, nothing has changed on that front just the POG.

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I Believe we are being offered a magnificent opportunity to buy into the Gold bull, for me a second bite of the Cherry...this time im sticking with the cream stocks TRY and NCM is all im interested in...and i want to pay $1.50 and $15.

I note that you have been in this share for along time, taking profits off the table a few times. I also notice that TRY has broken through a few support levels in the last few months. Do you see any risk of the share price testing the support levels arround $1.20 (or even the November 2008 low of $0.65)?

From reading through the thread it seems they are often later getting production underway than their original estimates and they appear to have taken a long time to finally mount a take-over to expand. Have you done a comparison of annual production over the last 4-5 years or is that a waste of time?

 

[G Gekko]

But you haven't bought gold you have bought a gold miner. Their cost will rise directly with a devaluing currency therefore more than likely Devaluing margin and profit. Miners are a poor way to play Gold IMO.

Yes, I suppose it's all relative. I mean costs can both rise and fall with a devaluing currency due to the decreasing cost of labour but the increasing costs of new equipment. After reading an article recently comparing the cost of making a shirt in an Asian country vs Australia or the US I believe that significant costs are accrued by the price of labour. It still doesn't mean that the price of gold won't bounce back to 'record highs', and these things make for great headlines for most traders (I think) that forces the SP higher. In reality what is the value of gold? We used to have our currency fixed at a value for gold so I don't believe it would have once been so volatile or misleading.

It's smoke and mirrors but I believe we can still profit from it.

EDIT: Should note that I'm only talking generally. I think miners in Australia are more open to suffering as the AUD remains 'strong' against most other currencies. Personally I think it would be great if we could devalue our currency a bit too but it's somewhat hard without creating inflation (unless your economy is in the doldrums).

I Believe we are being offered a magnificent opportunity to buy into the Gold bull, for me a second bite of the Cherry...this time im sticking with the cream stocks TRY and NCM is all im interested in...and i want to pay $1.50 and $15.

Agreed with this sentiment. I'm about to have enough to buy another parcel of shares and I think I'm confident enough in TRY that if I see the SP lower much further I will pick up another.

 

[So_Cynical]

I note that you have been in this share for along time, taking profits off the table a few times. I also notice that TRY has broken through a few support levels in the last few months. Do you see any risk of the share price testing the support levels around $1.20 (or even the November 2008 low of $0.65)?

I sold out at $4.07 about 21 months ago.

(9th-August-2011) After 4 years as a holder i have finally sold (@ $4.07) all of my Troy shares...mixed feelings as its not hard to see Troy breaking $5 over the next 12 months as long as the perfect storm for Gold and Silver continues.

I have always believed that Gold would have a significant pull back at some point and i didn't want to be holding any gold stocks when that happened...the pull back took a little longer than i thought to come around, as usual i was way ahead of the curve.

My buy target is $1.50 i think that will be about bottom or at least close enough, Troy is a more valuable company than it was so i don't think old support will be very relevant...this is assuming POG finds support at no lower than $1200 > $1250.

From reading through the thread it seems they are often later getting production underway than their original estimates and they appear to have taken a long time to finally mount a take-over to expand. Have you done a comparison of annual production over the last 4-5 years or is that a waste of time?

Production figures a bit of a waste of time as they are all dependant on the reality's of being a small cap miner, mining lowish grade small deposits in 3 different country's (over the years) its hard to do what Troy does... develop mines from nothing in the middle of nowhere dealing with Governments and bureaucracies that don't use English as a first Language.

And doing that without diluting the share holders or borrowing heaps of money and or taking out hedging agreements...they don't charge ahead with expansion for expansions sake, its all calculated and deliberated and done with timing and sensitivity.