Trading Tigers

[SIFIIK]

So if you have an interest in finance, stocks, trading and economics why is this the only thread you have posted in?

Duh!

 

[prawn_86]

Duh!

Clever answer...

Every post by you (except one) has been in this thread. It is very rare for that to be the case in any other thread, especially where a member is expressing a contrary opinion/trying to change current opinions.

My spam sense is still tingling

 

[brty]

Prawn,

What I have gathered so far from this thread is that the trading parameters are seasonal trades, based on some calendar type event based on historical performance. This is no new revelation, people have been doing this for years, it is usually a little bit successful in ag commodities, for some...

Several comments are at odds with each other. The trading vehicle appears to be the SPI, yet there is a comment that it can be traded with a $10,000 account. There are also comments about changing size up or down according to whether the trades are winning or losing, yet the current initial margin for the SPI appears to be $6,000 from here..

http://www.asx.com.au/data/clearing/marginrates.pdf

This would make changing position size impossible on a $10,000 account. You have either 1 or 0 contracts.

At $25/point for the SPI, and knowing how it can move 100 points fairly quickly, that puts 25% of account at risk, irrespective of where you put your stop, especially in after hours market or keeping a position open overnight.

The only way to get around this problem would be to trade a CFD, and we have heard from various posters about what happens when you are successful there.

Another inconsistency that I see is the statement about 400 traders all putting on the same trade at the same time with the same broker, at the close of the day. Assuming all traders were minimum account size holders, then there would be 400 new positions that could go into negative territory overnight. My understanding is the overnight is just too thin to deal with that volume, though I have not bothered to look it up.

Your spam sense may be tingling, I'm just laughing at the entire concept.

My opinion is that you would need at least $50k account size to trade the SPI intraday (up to 2-3 contracts if screen watching), and at least $100k for keeping overnight positions, for 1 CONTRACT.

 

[cynic]

Interestingly at the maximum 5033. Sometimes we wonder if our broker is not playing against us sometimes - but hey there is plenty to wonder about in this market. Not to worry - no-one has ever claimed all of our trades are successful. Over the course of the year I expect to make a sound profit.

As per posting live trades - i certainly don't feel obligated but I may contact you personally as the only other comments made to date have been cynical without any apparent interest

Thanks for your patience.

As mentioned I promised to be honest

When I first met Jodi in 2011, he was recommending use of the OTC CFDs on offer by a specific financial sevices provider (a market maker-not a broker!) within the industry. He claimed that the provider was the only one in Australia (of the OTC market presumably) that accurately reflected the SPI pricing. Has this situation changed or are you still using the same provider and experiencing the same integrity of pricing?

P.S. Thanks very much for continuing to post despite the skepticism expressed to date. There's just a little more that I could say regarding my perception of Jodi's approach, but will withhold my comments for the moment.

 

[brty]

I just had a quick look at their web page. You get these pearls of wisdom...

Some of the trades disclosed in this course have NEVER FAILED in the last eight years! They are not technical trades, they are tactical trades, where you will trade for a specific target, on a specific day, at a specific time! You will know the dates of these trades months in advance!

Well here is a freebie trade from the brty school of never fail trading that has never failed in the last 14 years, sorry must remember to highlight NEVER FAILED. You could make a fortune by following this one trade...

Buy CBA shares on the first trading day of April (hopefully 1st April) and sell when there has been a $1.60 rise in the share price. I was going to choose $2, except 2011 only went up $1.60. In most years the trade works within the first month, sometimes up to 3 months, and once or twice 7-8 months. Sometimes stops need to be 'wide' to accommodate stockmarket vagaries.

I'm sure I could find 4 other trades that have 8 years of history if I could be bothered trying, the April fool's day trade was too hard to ignore, such is my real opinion of this type of gambling.

 

[SIFIIK]

When I first met Jodi in 2011, he was recommending use of the OTC CFDs on offer by a specific financial sevices provider (a market maker-not a broker!) within the industry. He claimed that the provider was the only one in Australia (of the OTC market presumably) that accurately reflected the SPI pricing. Has this situation changed or are you still using the same provider and experiencing the same integrity of pricing?

P.S. Thanks very much for continuing to post despite the skepticism expressed to date. There's just a little more that I could say regarding my perception of Jodi's approach, but will withhold my comments for the moment.

Hi Cynic, thanks for your post and encouragement. I need to continue to remind myself that I have no obligation to continue to feed the skeptics, but I will continue to post to advise of future trades.

Yes you are right it is a market maker that TTs use. Regarding others posts re speculation of account size and and volume in night markets etc, you probably know about more about that which I am mentioning. e.g. Trade strategies, protection strategies in the night market, stringent money management and risk management. I don't need feel any obligation to explain specifically.

Regarding the market maker - in the past TTs were so numerous in their successful trades that it caused the company to incur considerable losses (in the low millions) in one particular year. Since then they have had a complete change of personnel and there have been occasions where it is suspected that have targeted TTs but negotiations have been ongoing and TTs have employed a bit of a diversion strategy to offset the possibility of them targeting our trades.

During the day this market maker does guarantee to provide TTs a finer spread than their individual clients (as is the case for most of their substantial sized clients - similar to bank lending - finer rates for larger accounts) but of course the night market is still dependent on demand & supply and therefore there are significantly greater spreads offered. (only one of several reasons why we have no stops in the night market but deploy protection strategies if warranted)

There have been other market makers that have pitched for the business but they have fallen by the way or been purchased by other organisations. It is an intricate process involving negotiation that I do not fully understand that dictates whether other market makers are considered. Don't know enough about it to go into it.

FYI there is "speculation" that an unaccountable $1.5 billion has poured into the AUS market recently and it is not local money (read international) and I think the odd person can guess where it might have come from. I personally do not know but have my thoughts also.

Consequently Tigers are completely out of this market at the moment despite an optional trade for the Platinum Tigers (not TTs - they are not aware of it) being on the horizon i.e. we will not opt in.

As for others speculating on account size, position size, improbabilities etc, you possibly know enough of how it works to know that these speculations are right off the mark.

Cheers

 

[SIFIIK]

When I first met Jodi in 2011, he was recommending use of the OTC CFDs on offer by a specific financial sevices provider (a market maker-not a broker!) within the industry. He claimed that the provider was the only one in Australia (of the OTC market presumably) that accurately reflected the SPI pricing. Has this situation changed or are you still using the same provider and experiencing the same integrity of pricing?

P.S. Thanks very much for continuing to post despite the skepticism expressed to date. There's just a little more that I could say regarding my perception of Jodi's approach, but will withhold my comments for the moment.

Hi All,

As mentioned I said I would post again after I returned to my desk and I have done so last evening. I indicated back in Feb that there would be a TT long trade on the Mar SPI contract about now.

Whilst I was unavailable and out of any contact with the world there was TT trade advised to execute (there is always a day or two warning incidentally). This trade was activated last Friday afternoon on the March 200 SPI contract. It is a long position and as you will all have seen this morning the market has opened significantly lower (Seemingly because of the Euro Zone mandate that all Cyprus bank depositors must contribute 10% of the their deposits toward a bank bail out in return for shares in the bank - huge ramifications for the Euro zone and other bank depositors in peripheral Euro Zone countries).

I fortunately have entered this am on the open for a much more attractive position. This trade will run for a few days (Obviously, as the March contract expires this week) and the target although optional for all TTs is advised to have been dependent on where the opening position was in relation to the 5100-5115 mark - i.e. above or below. So I expect many Tigers will target a smaller target (you can figure it out yourselves where the opening price is in relation to this 5100-5115 marker). Incidentally those that entered normally on Friday have not reached their stop loss (calculated on the highs and lows of certain day markets) but their insurance strategy would have been triggered if they opted for that. This would have resulted in them closing the insurance option this morning for an equivalent loss of about 12 SPI points (inevitably they must add this to their opening position)

Because of my entry price today, I am in the fortunate position to seek a very large target in excess of 50 and less than 100 points but I will option only 50% of my position for this target. I will option for the other 50% to exit for a specific target of more than 25 and less than 50 points. As usual I will not disclose specific numbers for reasons of confidentiality, but TTs that read this will know exactly the numbers I am talking.

So the only other aspect of this trade that I should specify up front is that if the targets are not met then I will let the position run to expiry and be closed out by the exchange, which of course may be profitable and may not.

I will keep you updated as best I can in this usual format. Its an interesting one this one

 

[SIFIIK]

Incidentally those that entered normally on Friday have not reached their stop loss (calculated on the highs and lows of certain day markets) but their insurance strategy would have been triggered if they opted for that. This would have resulted in them closing the insurance option this morning for an equivalent loss of about 12 SPI points (inevitably they must add this to their opening position)

Sorry everyone that cares - I'm obviously jet lagged.

The insurance strategy I mentioned this morning; if closed at 10.00am would have netted a PROFIT equivalent to approx 12 SPI points so that would be deducted from their Friday entry value, i.e. entry price less 12 points.

Those with a little more experience might choose to play their insurance position out for a while and currently it would be showing them a marginally better profit - this is not something that is generally recommended unless there has been a significant world event affecting world markets.

Sorry for the erroneous post earlier

 

[Trembling Hand]

Sorry everyone that cares - I'm obviously jet lagged.

The insurance strategy I mentioned this morning; if closed at 10.00am would have netted a PROFIT equivalent to approx 12 SPI points so that would be deducted from their Friday entry value, i.e. entry price less 12 points.

Those with a little more experience might choose to play their insurance position out for a while and currently it would be showing them a marginally better profit - this is not something that is generally recommended unless there has been a significant world event affecting world markets.

Sorry for the erroneous post earlier

What "insurance position"? What is that?

 

[waza1960]

SIFIIK
Could you possibly shed some light on a comment Jody made at a recent ATAA meeting which I attended.
He stated that short CFD postitions as a hedging instrument were desirable due to the interest paid on those
positions.(which I agree with).

However he stated that long CFD positions cost up to 80%/yr in costs
Can you confirm this ?
Did I misinterpret?

I sent an email but have received no reply as yet:1zhelp:

 

[Trembling Hand]

However he stated that long CFD positions cost up to 80%/yr in costs

As these dudes always talk minimum margin on margin that would sound about right.

 

[waza1960]

minimum margin on margin

Can you explain/expand on this TH

 

[Trembling Hand]

Can you explain/expand on this TH

If you have a position that has the value of $100,000 dollars and margin of 2% then these dudes always quote the position "cost" them $2000 but the interest is payable on $100,000.

$100,000 worth of interest on $2000 capital. Would easily be 80% per yr.

 

[waza1960]

If you have a position that has the value of $100,000 dollars and margin of 2% then these dudes always quote the position "cost" them $2000 but the interest is payable on $100,000.

$100,000 worth of interest on $2000 capital. Would easily be 80% per yr

Well that seems to be a disingenuous way of looking at it.
Surely the "position" is $100k and thats it.
IMO its dangerous to look at a position like that especially for the novice trader who can confuse
real position re risk/leverage etc.

What's the advantage of listing a position like this?
If you use this description of a position then a short position would also pay a large amount of interest?

 

[Trembling Hand]

What's the advantage of listing a position like this?

Ha! so when you make $1500 in the example you can quote return on minimum margin. Look this trade just made me 75% with 10 minutes work!!!

 

[SIFIIK]

SIFIIK
Could you possibly shed some light on a comment Jody made at a recent ATAA meeting which I attended.
He stated that short CFD postitions as a hedging instrument were desirable due to the interest paid on those
positions.(which I agree with).

However he stated that long CFD positions cost up to 80%/yr in costs
Can you confirm this ?
Did I misinterpret?

I sent an email but have received no reply as yet:1zhelp:

Sorry Waza, I can't help you. I haven't a clue what it means.

 

[SIFIIK]

Hi All,

As mentioned I said I would post again after I returned to my desk and I have done so last evening. I indicated back in Feb that there would be a TT long trade on the Mar SPI contract about now.

I will keep you updated as best I can in this usual format. Its an interesting one this one

Ok two losing trades in a row. Not seen since 2010. the entry position on Friday was not great and therefore a larger stop loss than usual - with insurance strategies reaping me about 42 SPI equivalent point my net loss comes in at about 38 points.

Not a good start to the year; as we look to compound our trading account, losses early do affect final year outcome.

Oh well persistence and belief.

Until the next trade, which will be next weekish (maybe earlier) and prior to Easter. It will be a SHORT trade and run for potentially a number of days - possibly more than a week

Till then - honesty as promised

 

[Trembling Hand]

with insurance strategies reaping me about 42 SPI equivalent point my net loss comes in at about 38 points.

What are the " insurance strategies" you are talking about?

 

[SIFIIK]

What are the " insurance strategies" you are talking about?

Sorry Trembling Hand, if you read back over these posts since February - I am not prepared to divulge specifics for two reasons. Primarily I have signed a confidentiality agreement to not disclose this information.

I am posting only because naysayers love to denigrate others without really knowing what it is about they denigrate. Given I cannot and will not divulge specifics, I have offered to be honest and advise in advance where I can of TT trades. The point of this is not to divulge a method specifically but to go on the record to provide an opportunity for the naysayers (and others who might be interested) to count the beads and see how it pans out at the end of the year.

To date this year of 4 trades - 1 was cancelled and thus really only 3 trades, the first a win but the last have been two losses and rather heavier than we would prefer at this time of the year. So trading account is down and therefore next trades will be smaller in size

SIFIIK

 

[Trembling Hand]

Sorry Trembling Hand, if you read back over these posts since February - I am not prepared to divulge specifics for two reasons. Primarily I have signed a confidentiality agreement to not disclose this information.

I am posting only because naysayers love to denigrate others without really knowing what it is about they denigrate. Given I cannot and will not divulge specifics, I have offered to be honest and advise in advance where I can of TT trades. The point of this is not to divulge a method specifically but to go on the record to provide an opportunity for the naysayers (and others who might be interested) to count the beads and see how it pans out at the end of the year.

To date this year of 4 trades - 1 was cancelled and thus really only 3 trades, the first a win but the last have been two losses and rather heavier than we would prefer at this time of the year. So trading account is down and therefore next trades will be smaller in size

SIFIIK

What a absolute load of utter BULL sh&%.


This is clearly spam.