Trading the Trend

[over9k]

duc - do you think the pullback last thursday was a coincidence or not?

it's not irrelevant.

 

[qldfrog]

As I am on a roadtrip for a week, i though it safer to offload position..a week is a long time lately.
The US market was kind to me and sell on open were great.touching base in a week.much could happen but looking forward to share some more of these billions QE at the end of the month

 

[ducati916]

duc - do you think the pullback last thursday was a coincidence or not?

it's not irrelevant.

The 'pullback' was always going to happen. The 'news' or spike was never going to change that either way, therefore 'irrelevant'. If you are asking: did the Market Makers use the news to further create fear and loathing and thereby exacerbate the selloff?

Of course. Never let a good crisis go to waste.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

Not what I asked you.

You've said that the pullback was always going to happen - not that it was going to happen when it did, and not that it was going to be as sharp as it was.

I've never disputed that *some* kind of pullback was due at *some* point.

 

[ducati916]

Not what I asked you.

1. You've said that the pullback was always going to happen -

2. not that it was going to happen when it did,

3. and not that it was going to be as sharp as it was.

I've never disputed that *some* kind of pullback was due at *some* point.

It is easiest to simply re-post the original posts (from this thread): Starting 8 June 2020:

And the current situation today:

Clearly you believe that your opinion and analysis are a superior way to engage with the market. That is excellent, I always admire bravado, particularly when it is backed by action.

So now I expect to see (whether on this thread or another) your analysis put into actionable action. I look forward to it tremendously.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

The Citi Economic Surprise indices, which track how economic data is coming in relative to forecasts, have been a prime example of the moves in economic data. Back at the end of April, the index for the US had fallen to a record low of -144.6, but that has since turned around. Even before the addition of today's blockbuster US retail sales report, the Citi Economic Surprise index had reached a new all-time high yesterday. With a further boost from today's releases, the all-time high is now even higher. That means that economic data in the United States has been coming in far stronger than economists have had penciled in.

So with earnings season just around the corner, should we be expecting slightly better results than might otherwise be expected?

Difficult to say, but: analysts will be more forgiving of misses (due to whatever reason proffered) at this time, than they will be down the road, assuming the economy continues to open up. Therefore (big bath theory) CEOs will be happy to dump whatever negatives they may be hiding into the earnings call, looking to show improvement next time round.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

Don't go putting words into my mouth - I never said I'm superior, I'm arguing that you might have at least one flaw with your method. Not the same thing. Long, I'm a complete bull myself. What I'm talking about is picking the dips (that can be picked) in the meantime.

I dumped my BA position into zoom (after buying BA at $125 and selling at $190) and am up 10% in a couple of days with zoom. I already had zoom from a few weeks ago and just added to the position. My other U.S positions are in ebay, paypal, and cisco, and I'm going to buy some skyworks, nvidia, amazon, & microsoft in that order. All tech/etail: Things which can function with people keeping their distance. Maybe some tesla & nikola but they'd only be small. I'm still undecided about walmart.

I'm also waiting for a dip to buy into thor & winnebago. I've bet on a big spike in virus cases/second wave playing merry hell with the markets soon, just like it did last week. Same goes with all the pharmaceuticals, boeing, and oil as long (really long) positions. I'm expecting this to occur sometime next month, maybe beginning at the end of this one.

I am still up significantly in the meantime.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the unemployment data that will be released at 11:30am today.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Don't go putting words into my mouth - I never said I'm superior, I'm arguing that you might have at least one flaw with your method. Not the same thing.

I dumped my BA position into zoom (after buying BA at $125 and selling at $190) and am up 10% in a couple of days with zoom. I already had zoom from a few weeks ago and just added to the position. My other U.S positions are in ebay, paypal, and cisco, and I'm going to buy some skyworks, nvidia, amazon, & microsoft in that order. Maybe some tesla & nikola but they'd only be small.

I'm also waiting for a dip to buy into thor & winnebago. I've bet on a big spike in virus cases/second wave playing merry hell with the markets soon. Same goes with all the pharmaceuticals, boeing, and oil as long (really long) positions. I'm expecting this to occur sometime next month.

I am still up significantly in the meantime.

Looks like Victoria is struggling with the virus at the moment. Surely we can't open our domestic borders with Victoria at the moment.

 

[over9k]

And the ASX is a bloodbath as a result, just like the nasdaq was last thursday after a big spike in cases over there.

These are NOT coincidences, which duc's modelling would have you believe. In fact I suspect this will give the market enough jitters to see a decent selloff tomorrow as I bet there'll be another spike in cases over the weekend as the protest virus spread data starts to come in more & more. You can expect a double bloodbath on monday if the same thing happens in the U.S over the weekend, which is more than possible.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

And the ASX is a bloodbath as a result, just like the nasdaq was last thursday after a big spike in cases over there.

These are NOT coincidences, which duc's modelling would have you believe.

Red across all indices, just about:

Obviously our market may tank today, if the unemployment figures are worse than forecast.

 

[ducati916]

Don't go putting words into my mouth -

I never put words in people's mouths. You did that all by yourself.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

Chronus - I can't see a huge difference unless they're wildly better than expected.

Things are already in the toilet and despite the chop (volatility), AU has been pretty flat over the past few weeks. Everyone have the jitters for a reason.

I'm expecting tomorrow & monday to be even worse - as soon as any virus data is released, it's red red red.

 

[over9k]

I never put words in people's mouths. You did that all by yourself.

View attachment 104915

jog on
duc

Rubbish. The only time I can ever get a straight answer out of you is when you either deny or attack something, despite how much you might infer other things. You've stated that a correction was due, and I've never disputed that. We are talking about why it (and there's been more) occurred when it did and why it was as dramatic as it was.

I'll ask this for a 500th time seeing as you keep inferring the answer and then getting mealy-mouthed when it's asked directly:

Do you think the pullback in the U.S last thursday, which occurred straight after a spike in U.S virus data, the pullback on the ASX this monday straight after a spike in chinese virus data despite an overwhelmingly postitive day in the U.S on the friday preceding it, and the pullback on the ASX today straight after a spike in australian virus data, were coincidences?

This is a yes or no question. It might be a qualified yes or no, but it is a yes or no question nonetheless.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Chronus - I can't see a huge difference unless they're wildly better than expected.

Things are already in the toilet and despite the chop (volatility), AU has been pretty flat over the past few weeks. Everyone have the jitters for a reason.

I'm expecting tomorrow & monday to be even worse - as soon as any virus data is released, it's red red red.

The unemployment figures will be much worse than published because the JobKeeper initiative is masking the extent of the metric.

 

[over9k]

True - but the markets know this already. This is all about anticipated vs actual.

I've trimmed a couple of positions awaiting a rebuy on monday.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

True - but the markets know this already. This is all about anticipated vs actual.

I've trimmed a couple of positions awaiting a rebuy on monday.

Beijing have just cancelled 1000 flights and have pretty much gone into lockdown.

 

[over9k]

Rate of 7.1% vs 7% expected. 0.4% market drop on the news.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Rate of 7.1% vs 7% expected. 0.4% market drop on the news.

Also a fair bit of data being released tonight in the UK and USA:

 

[Movendi]

What data platform is that Chronus?