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Trading the Trend

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qldfrog said:
Is it time to short or are the big boys already on, ready to slaughter the novices?
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Hell no, you don't want to be short this stick of dynamite. The earnings trade let me 'short' it with a $600 cushion and the knowledge that after earnings, IV would contract (IV crush). To short At The Money (ATM) is inviting sleepless nights.



Hence (in part) why IV was 200+.

jog on
duc
 
It's down another 5% pre-market today as well.

In fact, basically everything looks like it's in for another bloodbath today.

Except gold of course.
 
Banks could show some relative strength:



Would be consistent with the rotation that has been taking place this week.

jog on
duc
 
Basically everything's in the red. Everyone are starting to **** themselves. Like I said, it feels like early march again.

Gold's up.
 
Yeah, and the politicians are bickering like politicians do.

Their target was "before the august recess". I suspect an agreement will be made at the 11th hour, so we're going to have another week of this if that's correct.
 
over9k said:
Basically everything's in the red. Everyone are starting to **** themselves. Like I said, it feels like early march again.

Gold's up.
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Powell or Mnuchin are due for an immediate press release to tell us that everything is going to be fine.
 
Futures are all in the toilet, premarket are all in the toilet even more, it's going to be a bloodbath.
 
over9k said:
Futures are all in the toilet, premarket are all in the toilet even more, it's going to be a bloodbath.
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Market has run out of steam, retail Robin Hooders have maxed out their leverage and are ripe for the slaughter house. Market correction is possible leading into August, signaling to US Congress that more stimulus is needed, and signaling to the Fed to keep the printing press running hot.

Exciting day for commodities with commitment data being released.
 
There'll be a bounce once there's stimulus, no doubt. The question is when we get stimulus.
 
over9k said:
There'll be a bounce once there's stimulus, no doubt. The question is when we get stimulus.
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The stimulus should be approved by Congress within weeks, which should be somewhere between $1 trillion and $3 trillion. Until then I think we may get a significant correction. Once the stimulus is announced; the second leg of the rally comes, which will smash through record market highs, with the support of perpetual Fed monetary and quantitative easing.

I could be wrong though.
 
Last edited:

My thoughts exactly. Hence a move into gold today.
 
Gold looks like cracking 1900 today.
 
Yep. I'm now about 30% gold. I bet the politicians take another fortnight to get anywhere.
 
over9k said:
Yep. I'm now about 30% gold. I bet the politicians take another fortnight to get anywhere.
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I am ~49% precious metal equities, ~34% cash, ~17% physical precious metals. Precious metals being mainly silver.

Congress will have to pass the stimulus. There will be blood on the streets if they don't, if there isn't already.
 
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