Trading the Trend

[ducati916]

Is it time to short or are the big boys already on, ready to slaughter the novices?

Hell no, you don't want to be short this stick of dynamite. The earnings trade let me 'short' it with a $600 cushion and the knowledge that after earnings, IV would contract (IV crush). To short At The Money (ATM) is inviting sleepless nights.

Hence (in part) why IV was 200+.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

It's down another 5% pre-market today as well.

In fact, basically everything looks like it's in for another bloodbath today.

Except gold of course.

 

[ducati916]

Banks could show some relative strength:

Would be consistent with the rotation that has been taking place this week.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

Basically everything's in the red. Everyone are starting to **** themselves. Like I said, it feels like early march again.

Gold's up.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Market wants the US Gov and FED to print more $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$:

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/08/20170808_QE.jpg

 

[over9k]

Yeah, and the politicians are bickering like politicians do.

Their target was "before the august recess". I suspect an agreement will be made at the 11th hour, so we're going to have another week of this if that's correct.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Basically everything's in the red. Everyone are starting to **** themselves. Like I said, it feels like early march again.

Gold's up.

Powell or Mnuchin are due for an immediate press release to tell us that everything is going to be fine.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Data to be released soon in (GMT +10), in the next 12 hours:

 

[over9k]

Futures are all in the toilet, premarket are all in the toilet even more, it's going to be a bloodbath.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Futures are all in the toilet, premarket are all in the toilet even more, it's going to be a bloodbath.

Market has run out of steam, retail Robin Hooders have maxed out their leverage and are ripe for the slaughter house. Market correction is possible leading into August, signaling to US Congress that more stimulus is needed, and signaling to the Fed to keep the printing press running hot.

Exciting day for commodities with commitment data being released.

 

[over9k]

There'll be a bounce once there's stimulus, no doubt. The question is when we get stimulus.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

There'll be a bounce once there's stimulus, no doubt. The question is when we get stimulus.

The stimulus should be approved by Congress within weeks, which should be somewhere between $1 trillion and $3 trillion. Until then I think we may get a significant correction. Once the stimulus is announced; the second leg of the rally comes, which will smash through record market highs, with the support of perpetual Fed monetary and quantitative easing.

I could be wrong though.

 

[qldfrog]

Banks could show some relative strength:

View attachment 106419 View attachment 106420

Would be consistent with the rotation that has been taking place this week.

jog on
duc

Banks yesterday compensated all other losses even my silver pull back
Could be a sign repeating itself in coming weeks

 

[qldfrog]

Futures are all in the toilet, premarket are all in the toilet even more, it's going to be a bloodbath.

Best week ever so far, bring more bloodbath like that

 

[over9k]

The stimulus should be approved by Congress within weeks, which should be somewhere between $1 trillion and $3 trillion. Until then I think we may get a significant correction. Once the stimulus is announced; the second leg of the rally comes, which will smash through record market highs, with the support of perpetual Fed monetary and quantitative easing.

I could be wrong though.

My thoughts exactly. Hence a move into gold today.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

My thoughts exactly. Hence a move into gold today.

We will see the trader commitments in around ~7 hours for precious metals to get an idea of sentiment. We may see a huge surge in gold and silver within the coming weeks.

I just had a quick read of Jim Mellon's brief take on the markets, published a few weeks ago though: https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/jim-mellon-a-crash-is-coming-in-the-us/

 

[over9k]

Gold looks like cracking 1900 today.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Gold looks like cracking 1900 today.

Spot price already cracked 1900:

https://www.metalsdaily.com/

Futures COMEX Aug 20 cracked 1900:

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=@GC.1

 

[over9k]

Yep. I'm now about 30% gold. I bet the politicians take another fortnight to get anywhere.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Yep. I'm now about 30% gold. I bet the politicians take another fortnight to get anywhere.

I am ~49% precious metal equities, ~34% cash, ~17% physical precious metals. Precious metals being mainly silver.

Congress will have to pass the stimulus. There will be blood on the streets if they don't, if there isn't already.