Trading the Trend

[over9k]

4. Correct.

6. Joe Bloggs is irrelevant. As to medical sector:

View attachment 105628

7. Volatility is falling.

View attachment 105629

8. Not what I said:

View attachment 105630

9. Correct. Market could care less.

10. If it were simply ZM and any other micro-caps, the market as a whole would not be rising. Because it is MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, GOOG: these are mega-caps that will move the market and the QQQs, which are very Tech heavy reflect this outperformance to date as against SPY/DIA.

11. To date you have not provided any evidence. All you provide is your opinion. Therefore you have proven nothing.

12. Which means what? Market moves lower?

13. Posted.

14. What trajectory is that? So far markets have been 1-way.

jog on
duc

4. Ok, people off work sick for weeks and/or dead isn't going to effect markets. Right.

6. No, mass human behaviour will change the market. Pharmaceutical sector has gone absolutely nowhere compared to tech. XPH is down just over 5% year to date. https://etfdb.com/etf/XPH/#etf-ticker-profile Compare etf's by sector. They're on different planets.

7. and? I've never argued about volatility with you. No disagreements here.

8. Yeah and what enables that productivity to continue? You know, people to work without getting sick? Stay at home tech.

9. Rubbish. Explain the market reactions to the virus news then.

10. The market has on average risen because tech has risen so much. Take tech out of things and take a look at how any of the major indexes look

11. Are you denying the divergence now? Because I keep asking you to explain it and you still haven't done so.

12. No, the market as a whole will rise, but that'll only be because of tech. We'll see sweet all elsewhere and probably even more drop in the really bad stuff. But even if everything rises, I bet stay-at-home tech's still head & shoulders above the rest. This assumes no vaccine or stimulus news though.

13. We agree on this.

14. Sure, but are we just dumping our money into an index fund or spy or are we trying to be at least a little bit more sophisticated than that? Because the trends are a hell of a lot different if you at least break things down by *sector*, let alone subsectors. I've never argued that the entire market won't increase - but that there are other trends to be aware of and to trade those instead.

I will be opening up more positions in stay-at-home tech this coming week. Here's everything I'm gunning for/what I'm going to fill my entire portfolio with (and I already own some of it):

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Buffett is buying into energy, surprising:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/05/war...gy-natural-gas-assets-in-10-billion-deal.html

 

[over9k]

Yeah shale oil has allowed the U.S to change nearly its entire petrochemical-derived-product base input to natural gas:

They previously had to use oil because gas is just too difficult/expensive to transport, but not so when you can build the factories on top of the oil (or gas) fields.

Buffett ain't stupid.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Yeah shale oil has allowed the U.S to change nearly its entire petrochemical-derived-product base input to natural gas:

They previously had to use oil because gas is just too difficult/expensive to transport, but not so when you can build the factories on top of the oil (or gas) fields.

Buffett ain't stupid.

True; just curious as to why he likes gas right now, and why Dominion Energy assets. We don't hear much about Buffett buying into hydrogen or renewables.

 

[over9k]

I'm sure he's done his DD and we won't be privy to it lol

 

[qldfrog]

. We don't hear much about Buffett buying into hydrogen or renewables.

Buffet is not into guessing future winner so no hydrogen, and there is heaps to be done with fossil fuels in the next decades at a bargain price right now.
Interesting news thanks

 

[makteb]

Thanks duc and 9k.

It doesn't matter who is right or wrong, I've read views from both sides and can only better my trading than not knowing.

 

[ducati916]

Futures trading higher currently:

See how it develops through the night for tomorrow's open.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

News: Cold war heating up.

As the U.S.-China relationship deteriorates and bipartisan support for a tougher stance against the world’s second large economy grows in Congress, U.S.-listed Chinese companies could be among those to see blowback this year.

Transparency into Chinese companies has been a longstanding issue, with China barring the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, or PCAOB, from seeing corporate audits—describing that as a national security risk. Myriad Chinese companies have listed on U.S. exchanges for years, including heavyweights like Alibaba Group Holding (ticker: BABA) and JD.com (JD). But as momentum to take a tougher stance on China and reassess the U.S. relationship with the country grows, Congress has been moving toward delisting companies that don’t comply.

Many Chinese companies have in recent months sought secondary listings in Hong Kong, including Alibaba, NetEase (NTES) and JD.com, while China’s largest chip maker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp oration, delisted last year.

The proposal to delist companies has passed the Senate and is awaiting a vote by the House. In a video briefing with clients, Gavekal Research’s Arthur Kroeber said there is “a pretty good chance” that legislation requiring Chinese companies to fully meet U.S. accounting oversight standards will pass the House, and if it does, it is almost certain that most Chinese firms will need to delist from the U.S. For the most part, Kroeber expects most companies to relist in Hong Kong rather than Shanghai to keep tapping global liquidity.

In EMQQ:

Hmmmm.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

Futures up today as all the market makers are banging on about "fully expecting" another stimulus package soon/that whatever is proposed is going to pass congress soon. Bloomberg reporter saying a "republican lawmaker" has told him it's now only a question of when, not if, as they're all certain a 2nd wave and subsequent lockdowns are coming "sometime in the fall" but timing it is obviously the hard part. Apparently there's a lot of pushback against ending the income supplements/boosted welfare payments.

Obviously handy to know people in washington.

 

[over9k]

FWIW I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the stimulus a bit after when the 4th of july infections start showing in the data, so that'd be 3ish weeks from now. There's talk of before the august congressional/senate recess.

Tech-heavy nasdaq up the most this morning as usual.

 

[ducati916]

Services sector improving:

And China equities moving higher

In the US equities also moving higher:

Should clear that resistance of the 'previous high' and then move to the resistance point of the 'all time high'. I would expect (as indicated over the w/e) that we progress to the ATH resistance point this week. Whether we clear it this week will become clearer as we see where the market sits Wed/Thurs.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

The megatech is heading stratospheric (amazon up 5% today and cracking the 3000 mark) so I'd expect the major indices to hit highs pretty soon.

Tesla's run more than 30% over the past 5 days too, which is absolutely ridiculous.

 

[ducati916]

The megatech is heading stratospheric (amazon up 5% today and cracking the 3000 mark) so I'd expect the major indices to hit highs pretty soon.

Tesla's run more than 30% over the past 5 days too, which is absolutely ridiculous.

The purpose of this thread is primarily to (within human constraints) predict where the market is going tomorrow and over the next few days. Even longer if possible. This is so that traders/investors can choose to add/lighten/hedge their positions in a timely manner.

Any half-wit can tell me what has just happened.

You were offered the opportunity to use the thread at the w/e to do exactly that. You did not take that opportunity. I see elsewhere that you were thinking of opening your own thread 'Trading the Chop'. Excellent idea.

Now I don't really bother with individual stocks. If you really want to add value to this thread, take your favourite ones and comment on what is going to happen. Not on what has already transpired and is no longer available.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So just looking at the QQQs as individual stocks for a moment.

I haven't looked at any of their charts. Probably 90% of them, I have never heard of. To trade them, you would need either some form of mechanical trading system, or manage them individually on a discretionary basis. Either way, they are jumping around.

The question for me would be: does the direction of the Index (QQQ) determine the trend in these names? Volatility I can live with, if, and only if, they conform (ultimately) to the underlying trend of the overall market. Now I have no idea of the answer. If I have time, I might check.

Going way back when I traded stocks individually, it wasn't really the case. Individual stocks followed their own individual stories. Possibly times are a changing!

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

The purpose of this thread is primarily to (within human constraints) predict where the market is going tomorrow and over the next few days. Even longer if possible. This is so that traders/investors can choose to add/lighten/hedge their positions in a timely manner.

Any half-wit can tell me what has just happened.

You were offered the opportunity to use the thread at the w/e to do exactly that. You did not take that opportunity. I see elsewhere that you were thinking of opening your own thread 'Trading the Chop'. Excellent idea.

Now I don't really bother with individual stocks. If you really want to add value to this thread, take your favourite ones and comment on what is going to happen. Not on what has already transpired and is no longer available.

jog on
duc

You know what's worse than a patronising speech?

One that's wrong.

My thesis for the week going forward is the same as it has been: More virus dictated mess, more buying/holding of stay-at-home tech and virtually nothing else. I'll be opening up more positions soon now that the jobs data is out of the way (friday's employment data delayed the slump we would have otherwise seen) and the only news from here on out aside from the political bickering about the next stimulus package is going to be more virus data and more lockdowns.

The only difference is that we're now over the hill of summer so we're going to start to see the seasonality changes we always see on top of the change we've seen from the virus as well.

The only thing that can/will reverse this trajectory is some kind of vaccine news. This IS the new normal.

the market as a whole will rise, but that'll only be because of tech. We'll see sweet all elsewhere and probably even more drop in the really bad stuff. But even if everything rises, I bet stay-at-home tech's still head & shoulders above the rest. This assumes no vaccine or stimulus news though.

And well golly gosh jeepers, just look at the results of today:

A mile above the sp500, and two miles above basically all of the other sectors, just like every other day.

I think you have a bit of an ego problem duc. There's a very obvious trend here that you've failed to identify, and you need to admit it.

 

[over9k]

So the sp500 closed up 1.6% and the tech heavy nasdaq closed up 2.2%. I've closed up over 3%.

So it was exactly as I predicted and we've seen absolutely no deviation from what I've been saying for weeks now, and until the virus is gone, we're not going to.

As long as there's virus, anything which can be done via distance, is. Anything which can't be, results in people either getting sick or dying, which means big costs for whatever that business is. It's a double-edged sword of increases in business & cost savings for stay-at-home stuff and decreases in business and additional costs for personal-contact stuff.

Until the virus is gone, this is the new normal.

 

[ducati916]

Let me examine the claim:

So essentially the claim is that Tech. specifically 'Take Home Tech' is the only sector in the market moving the market: everything else is custard.

The evidence:

While Tech. is doing well, the rest of the market is doing just fine.

Therefore your assertion is incorrect.

Re. the 'Virus'. I have heard little else other than virus this, virus that. The sum total of effect that the virus has had is difficult to fully quantify because had the virus disappeared/cured/vaccine/etc, the the market could well have been much higher.

However, your assertion has been that the virus will create a break of the Trend/Bounce/whatever. This is incorrect. There has been any number of virus based headlines calling for a break in trend, new lows, collapsing economy, you name it, it has probably been written about. All incorrect.

Take Home Tech. What a joke. What we have are the largest, most popular stocks: AMZN, MSFT, NFLX, etc. which are moving the markets. I guarantee to you the effect of ZM and a handful of other micro-caps will have negligible to zero impact on moving the indices higher or lower.

You claim 'predictive powers' due to your assimilation and understanding of the virus et al. You were offered free rein of the thread just prior to the w/e to call this week. What did you actually do? Nothing.

I find zero value in hindsight traders/investors/whatever. Anyone can claim the trading prowess of the gods, very few actually deliver in real time. To date all I have seen from you is after the fact. Deliver in real time and you will gain respect. At the moment all you are doing is cluttering up my thread with nonsense and making me scroll miles down the page to get to empty space.

jog on
duc

 

[Spaniel14]

Long-time lurker, first time poster.

Felt I had to register and post so that I can say thanks to duc for the awesome analysis they give. This thread (and trading the bounce) were awesome threads that helped me navigate the pandemic and downturn. I’m certainly no expert and I have learnt a lot about the market as a result.

I am starting to find it very tiring with half of every page filled with petulant bickering, and claims of making xyz%. So much so that I am starting to browse other forums because it is tiring. Arrogance isn’t a favourable trait, nobody here is Warren Buffett, and nobody here is that one in a million trader that calls everything to perfection. If you were, you wouldn’t be here. Telling us how well you performed yesterday is of no use to predicting what’s going to happen tomorrow.

One question I have for the owners of so-called “stay at home tech”. It’s well known (and dead obvious) that stocks like Zoom are incredibly overbought. Surely these stocks have a huge correction on the horizon? It might not be tomorrow or this year even, but once life returns to normal, the EPS of these companies is going to drop dramatically. While some companies are moving to more flexible working arrangements with staff working from home, many (like the one I work for - sits very high up the S&P500) are going to return to normal office life when conditions allow.

 

[willoneau]

One question I have for the owners of so-called “stay at home tech”. It’s well known (and dead obvious) that stocks like Zoom are incredibly overbought. Surely these stocks have a huge correction on the horizon? It might not be tomorrow or this year even, but once life returns to normal, the EPS of these companies is going to drop dramatically. While some companies are moving to more flexible working arrangements with staff working from home, many (like the one I work for - sits very high up the S&P500) are going to return to normal office life when conditions allow.

Then the question I have how do we determine it happening before it does?