Trading the Trend

[ducati916]

And my main chap - flippe-floppe-flye!

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

The election will increasingly take centre stage. Stocks generally point to the outcome:

Now if Biden is to win, we will want to avoid that post August swoon and take profits to reset for buying the dip. We have potentially 2 mths where stocks could trade higher. We will just need to be alert as to either a potential technical and/or fundamental signal. The buzz is that if Biden were to win, Corporate taxes would rise. The market will not like that at all.


jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Metals prices:

View attachment 105403 View attachment 105404 View attachment 105405 View attachment 105406 View attachment 105407 View attachment 105408 View attachment 105409 View attachment 105410 View attachment 105411 View attachment 105412 View attachment 105403 View attachment 105404 View attachment 105405 View attachment 105406 View attachment 105411 View attachment 105412

The downward sloping are Steel (China & US) and Tin.

jog on
duc

Was it a test? Are they following?
The lme closing price curves do not reference the respective commodities..at least nothing i can see on the phone..
At least one is following Mr Duc
But got the idea

 

[qldfrog]

You might like this table Duc:
View attachment 105423

I would have expected copper somewhere there?

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I would have expected copper somewhere there?

Yeah, I agree. It's a good visual representation to compare the metals, would be better with some percentages. I found that table researching Thomson Resources (https://www.thomsonresources.com.au/)

 

[frugal.rock]

And my main chap - flippe-floppe-flye!

View attachment 105425

jog on
duc

Did you read what you re posted?

Why bring denigratiion of Autistic people to this forum?

Edited.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Did you read what you re posted?

Why bring denigratiion of Autistic people to this forum?
It's against the forum policy.
@Joe Blow please remove.

Right, carry on leading the lemmings.

Don't think people are lemmings; we all make our own investing and trading decisions. Nobody forces you to push the buy or sell button. This is finance based discussion, not financial advice.

 

[qldfrog]

Did you read what you re posted?

Why bring denigratiion of Autistic people to this forum?
It's against the forum policy.
@Joe Blow please remove.

Right, carry on leading the lemmings.

Seriously?, this is the type of comment expected on other threads or FB.This flippe floppe guy's style is outrageous and provocative per se
Very disappointing unless it was irony but i doubt. Would miss his views: aseptised news and comments are lemmings fodder indeed, let's not join them.
Let's not push away people like Duc who can bring knowledgeable input for proper decision making.
otherwise we can all run around saying how justified we are to collapse our economy for 100 deaths how doomed the US are and wonderfull we are in Australia with our closed borders
My view only

 

[frugal.rock]

I edited out the lemmings bit because it was supposed to be referenced to the moral decay in society. Having been bullied at an early age, then turning into a bully, then realising the error of my ways (by the age of 10) I can't stand denigration of those who appear to be less fortunate in this world.
Truth be known, there have been many Autistic spectrum geniuses through history, a little understood fact.

Let's not push away people like Duc who can bring knowledgeable input for proper decision making.

This wasn't my intention and the Macro/ Micro picture that Duc paints is worth more than a thousand words.
Thank you Duc.

 

[ducati916]

Did you read what you re posted?

Why bring denigratiion of Autistic people to this forum?

Edited.

Mr Flippe-floppe-flye is a US based Fund manager. We go back decades. He get's his name from the speed in which he repositions millions of dollars.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

The market had a second strong close. Observe the daily internals:

Advancing issues, New Highs, Above 50SMA.

The only ? is against 200SMA. There is an argument that many stocks are still in a Bear market. I would accept this, but would spin it as potential to move higher, rather than a pessimistic view of: this is still a Bear market/Bounce/etc.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Just in case you were in any doubt just how far the Fed. will go to support this market:

Supermarket sweep, 2020 edition. From May 19 to June 16, the Federal Reserve bought $5.1 billion in corporate credit ETFs under its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility according to Bank of America. That shopping spree was enough to push the central bank towards the top of the holders list in a number of the biggest such ETF products, including the third largest in the $54 billion iShares iBoxx USD Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (ticker: LQD), as well as the second- and fifth-largest holders in the $29 billion Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF (ticker: VCSH) and the $36 billion Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (ticker: VCIT), respectively.

There is plenty of in-house appetite for more. Fed chair Jerome Powell declared yesterday that: “The path forward for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus. . . [recovery] will also depend on the policy actions taken at all levels of government to provide relief and to support the recovery for as long as needed.”

Mr. Market anticipated that message, as junk bond issuance in the first half of the year came to a record $180 billion, according to Dealogic. Investment-grade corporate bond issuance for the first six months footed to a monster $840 billion, nearly double the previous half-year issuance record set in 2016. Kevin Foley, head of global debt capital markets at J.P. Morgan, summed up the prevailing mentality to The Wall Street Journal: “It’s been ‘take the money and run.’”

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

The result of all that Fed. intervention?

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

Yeah but it's concentrated duc, not broad across all sectors. Plenty are still damn near moribund.

 

[over9k]

Futures down significantly tonight as everyone are getting the jitters about what the jobs data will be on friday. Looks like a red day in store. Nasdaq down the least as usual though.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

The election will increasingly take centre stage. Stocks generally point to the outcome:

View attachment 105426

Now if Biden is to win, we will want to avoid that post August swoon and take profits to reset for buying the dip. We have potentially 2 mths where stocks could trade higher. We will just need to be alert as to either a potential technical and/or fundamental signal. The buzz is that if Biden were to win, Corporate taxes would rise. The market will not like that at all.


jog on
duc

I will post my electoral map within a few days; and then again 2 weeks before the election.

 

[qldfrog]

Yeah but it's concentrated duc, not broad across all sectors. Plenty are still damn near moribund.

being the devil's advocate:
so you mean plenty of growth opportunities and undervalued stocks..what's not to like?

 

[over9k]

Oh I've never disputed that there's money to be made or that the market will recover - only when/where/how.

It's my opinion that a lot of the moribund stocks (sectors) that were basically flat whilst tech shot up over the past couple of months are now going to drop even further in a 2nd virus wave. Some which bounced a bit are now going to drop back down to their previous levels too. Tech will again be the most resilient.

A lot hinges on the employment data out in the past couple of days. We saw a massive bounce when may's was better than expected, so we'll see. If it's bad, stimulus becomes a virtual certainty. I have cash ready & waiting to buy if it's bad.

Take tech out of the sp500 and it's the same disaster it was months ago.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Oh I've never disputed that there's money to be made or that the market will recover - only when/where/how.

It's my opinion that a lot of the moribund stocks (sectors) that were basically flat whilst tech shot up over the past couple of months are now going to drop even further in a 2nd virus wave. Some which bounced a bit are now going to drop back down to their previous levels too. Tech will again be the most resilient.

A lot hinges on the employment data out in the past couple of days. We saw a massive bounce when may's was better than expected, so we'll see. If it's bad, stimulus becomes a virtual certainty. I have cash ready & waiting to buy if it's bad.

Take tech out of the sp500 and it's the same disaster it was months ago.

We can flip the penny. My name is Chris. S; and I live in Sydney, Australia. I am not scared or afraid of my calls.

I will post my US electoral map soon.

 

[ducati916]

Yeah but it's concentrated duc, not broad across all sectors. Plenty are still damn near moribund.

Correct.

Which is why you need to be selective.

jog on
duc