over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
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You really don't think that a virus wave will drive/dictate the fundamentals? There's an awful lot of coincidences to explain if not.
You really don't think that a virus wave will drive/dictate the fundamentals? There's an awful lot of coincidences to explain if not.
You really don't think that a virus wave will drive/dictate the fundamentals? There's an awful lot of coincidences to explain if not.
The dramatic sell off due to the 1st wave of virus was by and large due to uncertainty no one knew where it would go, markets hate uncertainty.
There is very little uncertainty around the virus currently and the 2nd wave is largely understood.
The issue for me, re. your analysis is this: it is superficial and does not provide an analysis of the macro-fundamentals at all.
Medically, there was always the potential for a 2'nd wave, everyone and their granny knew that. This superficial type of analysis takes you nowhere.
jog on
duc
With regard to the virus story: even if the world (US) went to 100% infection rate, can economies be closed indefinitely? The answer is clearly no. Closing economies indefinitely is something that simply cannot happen. If it cannot happen, it won't happen.
@ducati916So updating the charts:
View attachment 105377 View attachment 105378 View attachment 105379
Every chart support held.
We knew the probabilities were high because the macro-fundamentals are supportive of a higher trending market. When the fundamentals change, so will I. While the fundamentals remain in place, so greater weight can be accorded to the technical picture.
Dr Copper does not lie.
View attachment 105381
jog on
duc
Agreed that the economy as such cannot be closed.
That said, disasters of any kind have a habit of being "unthinkable" for a very long time until they actually happen. Eg if anyone had discussed the idea of closing state borders or even just closing cinemas then they'd have been given a very firm "no" not too long ago. Then all of a sudden we ended up with not only cinemas being shut but the entire aviation industry all but grounded and people fighting over toilet paper. Etc.
With that in mind I pose the question that whilst "the economy" won't be shut, I see nothing preventing parts of it from being shut again or even permanently.
As just one example - when does anyone expect to see a major multi-stage music festival up and running in Australia with international acts and traveling to at least the 3 east coast cities and perhaps SA and WA as well, with attendance of 20,000+ in each city?
Or when do we see cruise ships calling into Australian ports at the rate of several a week and their passengers freely disembarking without restriction?
Those are just two examples but it seems entirely plausible to me that they won't be happening at all for quite some time and nor will many things. The economy won't be shut but a portion of it may well be - you need to pick your stocks carefully there I think.
Copper is a great indicator of economic activity: it is used from housing,infrastructure to industry or even throw away gadget: any wiring or electric motor uses it.@ducati916
What is your reasoning behind using copper prices as opposed to other financial instruments/commodities or oil for that matter?
Brazil export map:Same with iron ore - brazil's just toast. The wildcard(s) are on the demand side. We saw a big dip just a few days ago with that outbreak in beijing. The thing is that china still makes steel and just dumps it in their storage yards even if there isn't any demand for it. And then when the storage yards were filled, they started filling up their now empty sports stadiums.
No, I'm not joking.
I don't know what percentage of world supplies that is but I know brazil is roughly 25% of the world's iron ore.
Metals prices:
View attachment 105403 View attachment 105404 View attachment 105405 View attachment 105406 View attachment 105407 View attachment 105408 View attachment 105409 View attachment 105410 View attachment 105411 View attachment 105412 View attachment 105403 View attachment 105404 View attachment 105405 View attachment 105406 View attachment 105411 View attachment 105412
The downward sloping are Steel (China & US) and Tin.
jog on
duc
Agreed that the economy as such cannot be closed.
That said, disasters of any kind have a habit of being "unthinkable" for a very long time until they actually happen. Eg if anyone had discussed the idea of closing state borders or even just closing cinemas then they'd have been given a very firm "no" not too long ago. Then all of a sudden we ended up with not only cinemas being shut but the entire aviation industry all but grounded and people fighting over toilet paper. Etc.
With that in mind I pose the question that whilst "the economy" won't be shut, I see nothing preventing parts of it from being shut again or even permanently.
As just one example - when does anyone expect to see a major multi-stage music festival up and running in Australia with international acts and traveling to at least the 3 east coast cities and perhaps SA and WA as well, with attendance of 20,000+ in each city?
Or when do we see cruise ships calling into Australian ports at the rate of several a week and their passengers freely disembarking without restriction?
Those are just two examples but it seems entirely plausible to me that they won't be happening at all for quite some time and nor will many things. The economy won't be shut but a portion of it may well be - you need to pick your stocks carefully there I think.
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