Trading the SPI

[Bronte]

Where do you live in Perth doctorj?

 

[sails]

I want to be clear that much of what happened to this thread is your fault Bronte. You post historical trades, you dodge direct questions on the basis that you 'don't understand' and 99.99% of your posts have no value what so ever....

doctorj, I'm sure I'm not the only one who finds value in Bronte's posts. Surely those that don't are at perfect liberty to put her on "ignore" rather than denying others something that they actually find interesting. The constant interjections and accusations directed at Bronte do become quite tiresome and it would be good to see this thread back on topic

 

[Bronte]

I can’t help you with a chart of Gann time frames for the future of XJO simply because I don’t have one. I no longer attempt to use analysis that is too much predictive as I found it produced a mindset that needed to be “right”. Instead, if I see time and price coming together and then look for volume and price action to confirm the likelihood of a potential move. But then I am only in kindergarten when it comes to Gann techniques.

The other thing is there are many different and complex methods incorporated into Gann and even if one analyst posts a chart for you, another one would probably have a different chart – so it is very subjective and depends largely on the skill of the individual analyst. Probably even more subjective than Elliott Wave analysis. Both are very different to your TT system which is so concise and has served you well.

I have found that not all Gann style set-ups work, so agree with Bronte that one also has to have trader skills. Gann encourages the use of stops in his writings so he obviously didn’t expect every prediction to work either. One of the advantages is that one can keep stops quite close to the entry point. OTOH, I have also found that when these do work, there is often a very strong move in one’s favour – just look at the move down this week on the SPI following Bronte’s “time frame” call on the 19th September. She posted this around lunch time on that day without knowing what the next day/s would bring. Even though that was publicly posted on the day, it certainly couldn’t be called a hindsight call. This is only one of many I have seen work for them.

My guess is that Battman has become very skilled and intuitive in matching up the necessary areas of confluences to produce tradeable forecasts especially after 10 years of working on it. I can understand they won’t want to give all this information away as it would be giving away Intellectual Property considering the time consuming detailed work and effort that goes into these types of forecasts.

I think Gann methods are misunderstood as people want simple answers to complex methods. Option trading is much the same – people go to a seminar and then jump on to a forum wanting simple concise instructions to very complex areas which are often impossible to give without re-writing textbooks into a few posts.

So, why does anyone bother with this complex stuff that’s not easily explained when there are such simple and effective systems as your TT? I don’t know for sure, but I think those with strong analytical skills are probably drawn to this type of analysis. Probably because there is some satisfaction in finding reasons why the market moves – and that’s what makes the world an interesting place because we are all made so differently.

I tend to agree with Duc that the Gann style of analysis is probably not for you as you have found what works best for you plus you have many other activities on the go and I doubt very much that you would want to spend the necessary time on this style of analysis. However, if you are still interested, I would suggest getting hold of “How to Make Profits in Commodities” by WD Gann – quite possible your local library might have it.

Cheers

Thank you sails,
I thought this was a great well thought out post.

 

[sails]

... In the mean time, this thread shall be used for posting forward looking SPI trades (as opposed to historical since no one learns anything from hindsight)....

Does this also now apply to all the other stock threads on ASF? If not, why not?

 

[Bronte]

Where do you live in Perth doctorj?

I think we require your ruling Joe

 

[doctorj]

It's a very reasonable expectation that threads stay on topic.

Now, to trading the SPI please.

 

[Bronte]

'Trading the SPI'
Sycom closed at 4966
If we open around here on Monday
Then we will be looking to Buy the SPI

 

[Bronte]

'Trading the SPI'
Sycom closed at 4966
If we open around here on Monday
Then we will be looking to Buy the SPI

Any other SPI traders keen to buy?

 

[doctorj]

Why do you think its a good trade at those levels?

 

[Bronte]

Gann Support at 4966
Do you trade the SPI?
99.9% of no value?
1 in 1000

 

[Sean K]

Gann Support at 4966
Do you trade the SPI?
99.9% of no value?
1 in 1000

Bronte, can you show the analysis to have Gann support at this level?

My naked eye has support at 4900/4920 ish.

 

[Bronte]

You think we will open lower?

 

[Bronte]

Gann Support at 4966
Do you trade the SPI?
99.9% of no value?
1 in 1000

SPI traders pay us good money for education.
We owe them a lot of respect.

 

[Sean K]

SPI traders pay us good money for education.
We owe them a lot of respect.

What the?

In regard to the opening lower question, I say yes, because of DJ weakness, but the 4900/20 figure is my support line for SPI which may occur in the comming days pending international geopolitical/environmental issues which can not be forecast by anyone even Gann or Elliot or Bronte.

My thoery on T/A is now edging towards the 'self fulfilling prophecy' theory which says that if enough people think there is supposed to be support at some point, there will.

 

[Sean K]

I think it's quite clear from this chart that 4900 is support and then 4600. Would like to see a Fib annalysis on the retractment from 5400 on this, but this computer won't let me do it.

 

[iSPI]

I think it's quite clear from this chart that 4900 is support and then 4600. Would like to see a Fib annalysis on the retractment from 5400 on this, but this computer won't let me do it.

Kennas
Is this what you were looking for ?

 

[iSPI]

What the?

In regard to the opening lower question, I say yes, because of DJ weakness, but the 4900/20 figure is my support line for SPI which may occur in the comming days pending international geopolitical/environmental issues which can not be forecast by anyone even Gann or Elliot or Bronte.

My thoery on T/A is now edging towards the 'self fulfilling prophecy' theory which says that if enough people think there is supposed to be support at some point, there will.

RE: point on T/A, I agree, same principal applies to time. People remember
"Oh this day last year we had a horrific pull back I better sell in case
it crashes again"

 

[Sean K]

Kennas
Is this what you were looking for ?

Depends where you put the start point ispi. Should be at the start of the 'Bull Run' I suppose.

 

[iSPI]

I think it's quite clear from this chart that 4900 is support and then 4600. Would like to see a Fib annalysis on the retractment from 5400 on this, but this computer won't let me do it.

Depends where you put the start point ispi. Should be at the start of the 'Bull Run' I suppose.

Kennas
I put the start point at 5407 on the 10th May 2006 and did a fib retracement
to 14/6/ low 4758

Isn't that what you were looking for?
If you need something else let me know and I'll see if I can
put it for you

Regards
iSPI

 

[Bronte]

'Trading the SPI'
Sycom closed at 4966
If we open around here on Monday
Then we will be looking to Buy the SPI

Let's say eight point stoploss.
99.9% no value