Trading the SPI

[Bronte]

Oh I see...Thank you duc,
Great advice, we hope that he listens.

Battman works our his:
Gann Timeframes
(usually issued in December for the following year)
Gann Support / Resistance Areas
(usually issued 30 mins before the market opens for the day)
No sacrificing virgins here I am afraid

 

[ducati916]

With regards to Gannism;
Gannism is esoteric, not easily understood, possibly highly discretionary, and thus always viewed with suspicion.

As to the origins of the time theory element to Gannism the following caught my attention.

In 1913, a PhD was published by Bachelier in France, and demonstrated via rather complex mathematical equations that, price fluctuations grow in range and will be proportional to the square root of time

Stock prices in the United States over the last 100 years have 66% of the time fluctuated within a range of 5.9% on either side of their average.
The range in a course of a year has not been 72% or a multiple of 12 [year] rather, it has averaged around 20%

This is 3.5 times the monthly range.
The square root of 12 = 3.46

But exactly just what did Mr Gann write about angles? For anyone with an original Gann course, if they will turn to the first page of the section titled The Basis of My Forecasting Method, looking at line 10 from the bottom; they will read the following quote. "There are three kinds of angles-the vertical, the horizontal, and the diagonal, which we use for measuring time and price movements." Today every usage called "Gann angles" uses "diagonal angles" only. Yet the Master says we must use all three angles-the vertical angle, the horizontal angle, the diagonal Angle. Definitely not the last and least important, the diagonal angle alone.

The above caught my eye from page 3
Intrestingly, this is another application of higher mathematics, referring to chaos

This is chaos in the mathematical definition, not your standard day-to-day useage.

In it's simplest form chaos can be written;
4x{1 - x}
Computing the value of *x* of that expression for some initial value of *x* then substituting this answer back into the original expression starts a feedback loop.

Repeating this simple iterative process repetitively produces surprisingly complex, unpredictable mathematical behaviour.

The mathematical behaviour expresses the same kind of disorder produced by non-linear equations

The simplest non-linear equation;
Xn+1 = KXn - KXn(1 - Xn)

This equation determines the future value of the variable x at the time step n + 1 from the past value of x at time step n

This is known as the logistic equation
All well and good, but, what the hell is this to do with the Gannies?

Logistic equations are used in Medicine to predict population expansion, via Birth rates, Death rates, due in part to availability of food, water, arable land, disease etc.

It can also be used in ecology, for populations of insects, crops, etc.
Gann was interested in commodities.
Wait, there's more.

The logistic equation is a quadratic equation with a linear first term, and, a non-linear second term

It is the non-linear, or feedback component that is important.

For a given value of K once a starting point Xo is specified, the evolution of the system is fully determined. One step, inexorably leads to the next.
The whole process can be pictured on a graph.

It forms a parabola, that opens downwards.
There is a short-cut provided via the graphical representation, that avoids endless computations.

Re-read the quote at the start of this post;

The addition of a 45 degree line up from the horizontal axis [representing the line Xn+1 = Xn]
The best course is to steer is from Xo vertically to the parabola to reach X1 then horizontally to the 45 degree line, and vertically back to the parabola.

These paths or Orbits give the first indication of which routes lead to the erratic behaviour of chaos

Whereas some orbits converge, on one particular value, others jump back and forth among a few possible values, and many roam, never settling anywhere.

When K is between 1 & 3, just about every route no matter where it starts, is eventually attracted to a specific value called a fixed point which occurs where the parabola intersects the 45 degree line at x = [k - 1]/k This corresponds to to a steady state or equilibrium

Therefore, taking the previous mathematical work performed by Bachelier, combined with a logistic equation, and you can reproduce seemingly Gann.

The question is, historically, who, and at what date, was the initial work completed in logistic equations?

How did Astrology get involved?
Mathematicians have always historically been associated with planetary movements orbits etc.

jog on
d998
__________________

 

[iSPI]

This thread cracks me up !

Occasionally there is some great info however alot of the time there
is ... whats the Judge from Boston Legal say? too much Jibber Jabber !

It's like listening to kids at Kindy

Hey Ducati! (which are fabulous bikes by the way)......
how the heck did you come to the conclusion that we are all peanuts in disguise?

 

[tech/a]

Hi duc,
Not sure of what you are saying here....
Once again please in my language

The excuses will be myriad.

Excuse # 1 me no understand.

 

[Bronte]

Oh I see...Thank you duc,
Great advice, we hope that he listens.

Battman works our his:
Gann Timeframes
(usually issued in December for the following year)
Gann Support / Resistance Areas
(usually issued 30 mins before the market opens for the day)
No sacrificing virgins here I am afraid

Not listening tech/a

 

[BudFox]

QUOTE: I seen Frank trade live.. his system works very well.

yer.. i have seen frank too... and the systems do not work!!!!!!

 

[Bronte]

Glad to hear it Bud. Welcome to ASF.
Since you are not here to argue about things I have taken the liberty of removing some posts in this thread that could appear to some to be argumentative.
Looking forward to your contributions.

Be very careful Bud

 

[tech/a]

Not listening tech/a

The excuses will be myriad.

Excuse # 2 Go away, Translated---"I cant expose myself as in capable of demonstrating practical application of Gann. I wish the shroud of mystery to remain. Exposure will destroy any credibility. I have a business of mystery to protect!!"

Actually I dont care WHO gives a demonstration any Gann practitioner.

 

[Bronte]

Oh I see...Thank you duc,
Great advice, we hope that he listens.

Battman works our his:
Gann Timeframes
(usually issued in December for the following year)
Gann Support / Resistance Areas
(usually issued 30 mins before the market opens for the day)
No sacrificing virgins here I am afraid

Not listening tech

 

[tech/a]

Gann Timeframes
(usually issued in December for the following year)

Then the rest of the year you have.
Lets see them.

 

[Bronte]

Not listening tech

 

[Bronte]

I have had to report you again tech.
We agreed to keep out of each others way.
(To keep the peace here at ASF.)
Why break your word now?
You know you are on our 'Ignore lists'
Please do the same to Battman & Bronte

 

[Bronte]

I have had to report you again tech.
We agreed to keep out of each others way.
(To keep the peace here at ASF.)
Why break your word now?
You know you are on our 'Ignore lists'
Please do the same to Battman & Bronte

As a final word to you tech/a
You are attacking Battman not his system.
I know he has done you no harm.

 

[tech/a]

You are attacking Battman not his system.

Fair enough,I dont believe there is any Gann used in this SPI thread.
Battman and yourself (Who I believe to be the same person) set yourselves up here as authorities on the subject---even teach it supposedly.

All I wish to see from ANYONE who is supposedly proficient in Gann (And Im sure Im not alone) is a practical demonstration of the techniques use of price and time going forward.

Ive been asking this for years havent seen it YET.

Dont think I will either,simply because the method has very little practical use which exponents find out much to their dismay after forking out $1000s to do so.

Anyone care to demonstrate?????

 

[Bronte]

Battman works our his:
Gann Timeframes
(usually issued in December for the following year)
Gann Support / Resistance Areas
(usually issued 30 mins before the market opens for the day)

Does anyone know of any other "Great Trading Masters" that use Timeframes?
I suppose there must be some others.

 

[sails]

sails.

Thanks.
I see it has been helpful for others as well.

Confluence of time and price I believe can be calculated from various highs and lows over wide or shorter periods.
This gives pressure points I believe is the terminology,and are calculated using principles of Gann and as such are exclusive to Gann analysis.

Is it possible to have a chart (ASX 200) with these various points of interest upon them?
That would be a practical demonstration in my view of accuracy which can be evaluated after these confluences pass by.

Gann analysts are very sure of the accuracy of their analysis,and as I have said before I have seen this demonstrated in hindsite but never with even mediocre accuracy going forward.

To stir interest in this form of analysis and give it a sence of credibility,as being something worthwhile studying,why is this too much to ask of those who practice Gann?

Tech/a,

I can’t help you with a chart of Gann time frames for the future of XJO simply because I don’t have one. I no longer attempt to use analysis that is too much predictive as I found it produced a mindset that needed to be “right”. Instead, if I see time and price coming together and then look for volume and price action to confirm the likelihood of a potential move. But then I am only in kindergarten when it comes to Gann techniques.

The other thing is there are many different and complex methods incorporated into Gann and even if one analyst posts a chart for you, another one would probably have a different chart – so it is very subjective and depends largely on the skill of the individual analyst. Probably even more subjective than Elliott Wave analysis. Both are very different to your TT system which is so concise and has served you well.

I have found that not all Gann style set-ups work, so agree with Bronte that one also has to have trader skills. Gann encourages the use of stops in his writings so he obviously didn’t expect every prediction to work either. One of the advantages is that one can keep stops quite close to the entry point. OTOH, I have also found that when these do work, there is often a very strong move in one’s favour – just look at the move down this week on the SPI following Bronte’s “time frame” call on the 19th September. She posted this around lunch time on that day without knowing what the next day/s would bring. Even though that was publicly posted on the day, it certainly couldn’t be called a hindsight call. This is only one of many I have seen work for them.

My guess is that Battman has become very skilled and intuitive in matching up the necessary areas of confluences to produce tradeable forecasts especially after 10 years of working on it. I can understand they won’t want to give all this information away as it would be giving away Intellectual Property considering the time consuming detailed work and effort that goes into these types of forecasts.

I think Gann methods are misunderstood as people want simple answers to complex methods. Option trading is much the same – people go to a seminar and then jump on to a forum wanting simple concise instructions to very complex areas which are often impossible to give without re-writing textbooks into a few posts.

So, why does anyone bother with this complex stuff that’s not easily explained when there are such simple and effective systems as your TT? I don’t know for sure, but I think those with strong analytical skills are probably drawn to this type of analysis. Probably because there is some satisfaction in finding reasons why the market moves – and that’s what makes the world an interesting place because we are all made so differently.

I tend to agree with Duc that the Gann style of analysis is probably not for you as you have found what works best for you plus you have many other activities on the go and I doubt very much that you would want to spend the necessary time on this style of analysis. However, if you are still interested, I would suggest getting hold of “How to Make Profits in Commodities” by WD Gann – quite possible your local library might have it.

Cheers

 

[Pager]

Does anyone know of any other "Great Trading Masters" that use Timeframes?
I suppose there must be some others.

Well there is Larry Williams, not timeframes like WD as such but he does favour certain days of the week/month to buy or sell, also certain years some markets show a tendency to go up or down, years ending in 7 often have big down moves for stock markets, look at them on long term charts in recent years 1987, 1997.

What will 2007 deliver ?????

 

[doctorj]

Thanks to Ducati from bringing some sense in to this discussion.

This thread is about trading the SPI, not the merits of trading using Gann. People wanting to have that discussion are welcome to have it in another thread. In the mean time, this thread shall be used for posting forward looking SPI trades (as opposed to historical since no one learns anything from hindsight) and discussion of specific methods used to trade the SPI. If myself or any of the other moderaters decide that this has gone off topic again, expect the thread to be closed.

 

[Bronte]

Excellent work doctorj,
'Trading the SPI'
Thank you for that post

 

[doctorj]

I want to be clear that much of what happened to this thread is your fault Bronte. You post historical trades, you dodge direct questions on the basis that you 'don't understand' and 99.99% of your posts have no value what so ever.

You would do well to take a leaf out of Yogi's book. He's a highly respected contributor of many online communities and is willing to take the time to explain his ideas to those that show an interest and for years he has openly posted his analysis of many stocks and indicies.