Trading the SPI and FTSE

[elmundotrade]

Thats what I'm trying to work out at the moment and almost everynight.

 

[MRC & Co]

Today on the SPI, from the low in the morning through the lunch rally (before the rate announcement), we hit the 50% retracement to the tick at 34s.

 

[James Austin]

yes, u were right, 50% is an important/powerful one

 

[James Austin]

i've been looking for a way to take advantage of some of the bigger intraday index moves. plus i think my personality lends itself towards well thought through trades (ie., taking my time). so i've been exploring median lines.

seem to have found a bit of a guru in the field to. down-to-earth Tim Morge, who's been using MLs for decades and has been trading for 38 years. http://marketgeometry.com/

MLs are a simple tool, but there's a bit of magic in them i think . . . . got to love simplicity.

the example below shows the SPI opening below the ML (top yellow circle) and extending to the brown ML (bottom yellow circle).

this morning i was looking at this ML chart, but had conflicting signals from my other system so i didnt participate; gets confusing when there are conflicting signals, which to believe!!

i wonder if price will bounce at the rose circle? price hasnt quite got low enough yet to know.

but price might get down to 3618-21, we'll see.

 

[James Austin]

update on yesterdays chart.

best entry long at 3618ish (rose circle) which also matched a fib number. low was 3611 = SL 9pnts or greater = survival

exit at next median line (green circle) 3674ish.

nice if u can get it,
took 9hrs and doesnt need to be watched like a hawk.

** yellow circle shows possible resistance/ short at open on SPI today 3675-79

 

[James Austin]

UPDATE

best entry long at 3618ish (rose circle) which also matched a fib number. low was 3611 = SL 9pnts or greater = survival

exit at next median line (green circle) 3674ish.

nice if u can get it,
took 9hrs and doesnt need to be watched like a hawk.

** yellow circle shows possible resistance/ short at open on SPI today 3675-79

 

[James Austin]

UPDATE


SPI hits median line at 3682 (yellow circle) where resistance is expected.

short entry 3680ish
high is 3685 so SL survival = 3687 = 7 pnts
where to exit? expectation is price will reach lower blue ML.
but will it and when?

 

[James Austin]

FTSE opens right under -21% fib at 3921 (yellow circle), moving down to 21% fib and lower ML (green circle) where it bounces.

short 3921 (**requires speed and planning to take this open trade)
exit 3891 at fib/ML support

long 3891
exit 3904 in anticipation of fib resistance

 

[James Austin]

SPI hits 50% fib and ML20 & ML60 -- short??

 

[James Austin]

IF the SPI opens below 3714 and
IF the MLs I have drawn this morning are correct, the studious Greg Fisher has come up with some stats that can be applied to the chart below (SPI 22.04.09)

at the yellow circle, 3715ish, there is a 46% probability of a reversal, and if that reversal occurs, there is a whoping 90% probability price will reach the line pointed to by the arrow.

if it were to do that shortly after open, we are talking 3685ish. as the day progresses, the price will increase due to bar progression up the mid blue line.

anyway, . . . we'll see.

 

[James Austin]

Beautiful,
at open SPI heads straight to 3683 = exit target.

Bummer!
. . . missed fill; was waiting for entry at 3713, SPI high at open 3707.

that's trading, . . . another will appear.

 

[elmundotrade]

That's excellent James....how that system of the fork talks for it self!!.... my sympathies by you not getting filled thou .... there is always the next trade..
I think, I am going to have to study that system and apply it to my arsenal..... too many times now that I see its works...and its potential accuracy, fantastic!!

Cheers.

 

[James Austin]

yes, there is some magic in the forks.

free teachings from an absolute pro here
http://marketgeometry.com/

 

[James Austin]

when price pushes through the ML at the yellow circle, there is a 70% probability it will continue on to reach the bottom ML.

also, there is a 64% probability price will revisit the mid ML after the initial penetration = entry at 3682

CPI at 11.30am may force price into the 30% bracket.

exit target is bottom or 2nd last ML,
or SL/P,
. . . which ever is best in RT

 

[elmundotrade]

Thanks for the link James.....

 

[James Austin]

3655 was the target, and finally, albeit at a snails pace, it was achieved.

3682 open to 3655 close

* no worries elmundo.

 

[James Austin]

feeling long this morning

we'll see if around open time we get a set-up at the yellow circle 3650-3660ish

expectation of move up to 3730ish . . . or more?

all depends on how the open pans out

 

[James Austin]

de ja vu . . .

Beautiful,
at open SPI heads straight to 3720 = resistance and a worthy exit target.

Bummer!
. . . missed fill; was waiting for entry around base ML.

this entry opportunity did occur as the chart shows, but only if you are trading at 6am, . . . i'm not!!



note: the desired entry is where price intersects the base ML. I can take a trade above there, but it is open to higher risk; price may decide to retrace hitting my SL then continue in the anticipated direction

hence i aim for the highest probability entry, anything less in the long run will ensure an unprofitable trading system, . . . and we dont want that.

so if i miss my set-up, then tough,
i wait for the next one.

 

[James Austin]

struggling to stay awake, so i'll put this up to fill some time.

SPI is lacking committment today, so not feeling confident, but the TA is there for the trade

we'll see . . .

edit:
exit target is <3715 (not 3725!)
entry 3735
SL 3741
R:R = 6:20

 

[James Austin]

finally got there

exit 3712