Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trading the Brexit, anyone?

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The markets have certainly caught a bid, there must be an expectation of more accomodative monetary policy....more accomodative than what? That's the question....
 
Well its close to the end of the day and the month. At the highs today the SPI was jusy 90 odd points from the high before the Brexit. How many think there might be some squaring of the books before month end??

Maybe just take some off the table and call it a reasonable loss.....:cool:
 
The speech from the Euro dude today is totally the wrong signal.
He is saying 'there is no negotiating until GB lodges Article 50 (the exit contract).'
The last thing we need is for the Euro Bureaucrats to be pig headed about it.
It's obviously a threat to it's other members but it's stupid because it's just going to create chaos again!
The only good thing about it would be if it helps GB change it's mind!!!
 
I'm actually not enjoying this at all. :cry: All the waiting + trading micro lots (tiny reward for effort).

Anyway, target 9636.
 
cynic said:
If one is trading microlots then one is trading OTC derivatives.

In my experience OTC combined with stop orders seldom ends well.
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Yes thanks I know that can happen. I was doing the stop manually, so IG couldn't see it.

I figured it out though. It's the fact that the price is constantly moving. With a stock system, I have so much more time to make decisions and can happily leave the screen for hours at a time. With discretion and futcfds, you really can't rest. It's full on concentration for hours on end.

So I feel stressed losing a few hundred $ on a cfdfut trade, but won't be fussed when my stock systems are down 5-10k. Either I have to systematize my cfdfut trading or zoom out my time frame.

I guess this is what people mean by finding a style of trading which suits you. It has to be fun.
 
Best analysis I have heard yet on BREXIT by Patrick Chovanec, -

'The leave campaign had no plan of what to do if they won! This is like the dog that caught the car. If this had been something they had to enact immediately it would be an absolute disaster! All they have is time.'
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Best analysis I have heard yet on BREXIT by Patrick Chovanec, -
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And the mayor doesn't want the front seat anyway! Or so I heard.

Well all the dust has settled and markets are back to pre.

Interesting the push up in silver, and to add the flags (with no movement yet) for gold pairs. Silver is hitting monthly resistance, but I thought these gold flags would have faded by now, there must be some more trouble brewing, not meaning to state the obvious.

Silver.png

The usual London open (throw mud and see if it sticks) push up just hasn't been able to close the gap, man it's bearish. So in my wisdom (or not), I can see this next GBPUSD move down coinciding with the gold flags playing out.

What will be the catalyst for the jump, or will it simply take a slight breeze to push it over the cliff to 1.30 and below?

GBPUSD.png
 
Some of the causes that riled the British Establishment, so they pushed for Brexit rather than adapting to changing conditions. Note: this list comes from an email that is currently making the rounds. Logic tells me that it originated in Britain, compiled by Brexiters; therefore, I won't guarantee the veracity of each detail.
Just for info for those who were wondering what it was all about

A short list of financial and industrial FUBARs from the EU...
  • Cadbury moved factory to Poland 2011 with EU grant.
  • Ford Transit moved to Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
  • Jaguar Land Rover has recently agreed to build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, the same company who have trashed our steel works and emptied the workers’ pension funds.
  • Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
  • British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
  • Dyson gone to Malaysia, with an EU loan.
  • Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone to Poland with EU grant, once employed 1,200.
  • M&S manufacturing gone to far east with EU loan.
  • Hornby models gone. In fact all toys and models now gone from UK along with the patents all with EU grants.
  • Gillette gone to eastern Europe with EU grant.
  • Texas Instruments Greenock gone to Germany with EU grant.
  • Indesit at Bodelwyddan Wales gone with EU grant.
  • Sekisui Alveo said production at its Merthyr Tydfil Industrial Park foam plant will relocate production to Roermond in the Netherlands, with EU funding.
  • Hoover Merthyr factory moved out of UK to Czech Republic and the Far East by Italian company Candy with EU backing.
  • ICI integration into Holland’s AkzoNobel with EU bank loan and within days of the merger, several factories in the UK, were closed, eliminating 3,500 jobs.
  • Boots sold to Italians Stefano Pessina who have based their HQ in Switzerland to avoid tax to the tune of £80 million a year, using an EU loan for the purchase.
  • JDS Uniphase run by two Dutch men, bought up companies in the UK with £20 million in EU 'regeneration' grants, created a pollution nightmare and just closed it all down leaving 1,200 out of work and an environmental clean-up paid for by the UK tax-payer. They also raided the pension fund and drained it dry.
  • UK airports are owned by a Spanish company.
  • Scottish Power is owned by a Spanish company.
  • Most London buses are run by Spanish and German companies.
  • The Hinkley Point C nuclear power station to be built by French company EDF, part owned by the French government, using cheap Chinese steel that has catastrophically failed in other nuclear installations. Now EDF say the costs will be double or more and it will be very late even if it does come online.
  • Swindon was once our producer of rail locomotives and rolling stock. Not any more, it's Bombardier in Derby and due to their losses in the aviation market, that could see the end of the British railways manufacturing altogether even though Bombardier had EU grants to keep Derby going which they diverted to their loss-making aviation side in Canada.
  • 39% of British invention patents have been passed to foreign companies, many of them in the EU.
  • The Mini cars that Cameron stood in front of as an example of British engineering, are built by BMW mostly in Holland and Austria. His campaign bus was made in Germany even though we have Plaxton, Optare, Bluebird, Dennis etc., in the UK.
  • The bicycle for the Greens was made in the far east, not by Raleigh UK but then they are probably going to move to the Netherlands too as they have said recently.

Anyone who thinks the EU is good for British industry or any other business simply hasn't paid attention to what has been systematically asset-stripped from the UK. Name me one major technology company still running in the UK.
We used to contract out to many, then the work just dried up as they were sold off to companies from France, Germany, Holland, Belgium, etc., and now we don't even teach electronic technology for technicians any more, due to EU regulations.
I haven't detailed our non-existent fishing industry the EU paid to destroy, nor the farmers being paid NOT to produce food they could sell for more than they get paid to do nothing, don't even go there.

I haven't mentioned what it costs us to be asset-stripped like this, nor have I mentioned immigration, nor the risk to our security if control of our armed forces is passed to Brussels or Germany.

Find something that's gone the other way, I've looked and I just can't.

Still want to stay? Well it must be some consolation that you have Cameron to negotiate in Europe on your behalf.

And of course, the real deal-breaker .... Democracy, transparency and independence. We can vote out our MPs - BUT the European Commission who dictate 55% of UK laws, which are legally binding, are ..... guess what, untouchable, unelected and hidden from view.
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I can understand why some Poms are up in arms about the whole globalisation thing.
But are YOU still a pom?
As an Australian, I can't give two hoots about who owns what in Britain.

Many of the old UK companies were basket cases, in dire need of fresh ideas and capital. By joining the Common Market, the Brits hoped to find easier access to capital and to customers. If they had been as clever as they claimed to be, they could have influenced the EU Constitution to follow more sensible principles than what it actually turned out to be: An unwieldy top layer of red tape and bureaucracy that benefits paper shufflers and incompetent idealists. IMHO though, it's no use to act the frustrated kid, taking bat and ball and walk out in a huff. If you want to change matters in a Club where you're a paying member, you negotiate with your team members and find a sensible compromise that suits and benefits all members.

The biggest problem is, after WW2, the Brits were more interested in maintaining the facade of former glory, rather than reforming their education system to keep up with continental Europe and, later, emerging Asian countries. While the losers rolled up their sleeves and rebuilt, the Brits heaved a sigh of relief that they'd won ... and rested on their laurels. Even today, many seem to resent the loss of the Empire, only reluctantly acceding to changing it to a Commonwealth - yet still, the "Wealth" is far from evenly spread between Lords and "Common"ers.

As has been said as early as the 1920's: Britain may have won the War, but they lost the Peace. Apart from Germany and Japan, the real winners were the US, for a few decades also Russia, and more recently China.
 
Europe has never had a better period than what it has enjoyed since the second world war. Problem is that people just focus on the petty things and forget about the massive benefits of Euro.

What has been interesting about this is how the independent pound has assisted GB. They have done better than the rest of the basket because it was allowed to depreciate in tune with changing local circumstances.

Maybe they should just all bring back their own currencies and keep all the other stuff. Who uses cash these days any way?! When people use cash they can pay with any of the currencies, the bank can sort out the difference with no charge for the transfer back to local currency when in the accounts.:2twocents
 
notting said:
Europe has never had a better period than what it has enjoyed since the second world war. Problem is that people just focus on the petty things and forget about the massive benefits of Euro.

What has been interesting about this is how the independent pound has assisted GB. They have done better than the rest of the basket because it was allowed to depreciate in tune with changing local circumstances.

Maybe they should just all bring back their own currencies and keep all the other stuff. Who uses cash these days any way?! When people use cash they can pay with any of the currencies, the bank can sort out the difference with no charge for the transfer back to local currency when in the accounts.:2twocents
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I agree, Notting.
When they introduced the Euro. it ran parallel to all local currencies for several years:
On January 1, 1999, the European Union introduced its new currency, the euro. Originally, the euro was an overarching currency used for exchange between countries within the union while people within the countries continued to use their own currencies. Within three years, however, the euro was established as an everyday currency and replaced the domestic currencies of many member states. Although the euro is still not universally adopted by all the member states as the main currency, most of the holdouts peg their currency in some way against the euro.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/euro-introduction-debut.asp#ixzz4DEX3XHHo
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Making it the only currency in most member states on the Continent, without a common Fiscal and Taxation Policy meant putting the cart before the horse. One size currency simply does NOT fit all across as socio-economically diverse countries as Germany and Greece, to name just two extremes.
Even the US spilled much blood in the 1860's to remain united; their Union only survived because the same laws govern taxation, retirement, and commerce across the land. The wealthier States also contribute a greater share to the Union overall, but unlike Euroland, they don't pay it as bailout loans that they expect to receive back with interest.
 
This looks slightly worrying...

The fallout from the Brexit vote reverberated through the markets on Tuesday as two more City property funds barred investors from withdrawing their cash and the Bank of England warned that risks to the financial system had begun to “crystallise”.

City watchers warned that further property funds would be forced to bar withdrawals as investors race for the door amid fears of a plunge in the values of office blocks and shopping centres in post-Brexit Britain.
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https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ing-in-its-property-fund-brexit-standard-life

Watch out LLC and WFD!!
 

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