Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trading the Brexit, anyone?

Jump to new
Trump in Scotland speaking favorably about Brexit...

"People are angry all over the world. They're angry over borders, they're angry over people coming into the country and taking over and nobody even knows who they are."

-Donald Trump

I wonder how he thinks all the Muslim people in the ME felt about "people coming into their country and taking over and nobody even knows who they are" FFS.....really??? The hypocrisy of this is just unbelievable!
 
spoke to co-workers in the UK tonight.... said business' not to pleased with the result. were discussing other matters, so didnt really ask why... just a sign of the times though i think.
 
Well it turned out to be quite a trading day with lots of opportunities, now it appears business as usual. Cool, switch the EA's back on again.

I had a good day, beside 2 fat finger moments caught up in the excitment, and seeing I was thinking of sitting it out in the eleventh hr.

Was a good information gathering day, spreads, EA testing, daily ranges broken. The next exits will be mostly expected now, and no wopping gap for monday.
 
There would have to be some continued downward momentum I think. One day and all is forgotten? The (supposed) bargain hunters will be snatching at anything looking oversold. Ooooo!.
 
Wysiwyg said:
There would have to be some continued downward momentum I think. One day and all is forgotten? The (supposed) bargain hunters will be snatching at anything looking oversold. Ooooo!.
Click to expand...

Germany will slow everything down as it slowly ties up its own deals with the UK, especially on car exports. After that's all fixed up they wont be bothered anymore. The EU ships far more to the UK than the UK does to the EU.
France's population are 62% in favour of a Frexit and the leaders there are wobbling and what about all that wine going to the UK from France, Germany, Spain and Italy - none from the cold UK climate for sure.

If the EU gets too uppity then the Brits could boycott wine and cars from the EU. Or even worse, stop all those EU fishing boats from catching fish in British waters - they take 80% of the catch at present.

So Angela Merkell the German Chancellor, will slow everything down as the wobbling EU ship could tip its cargo into the sea at the same time as they torpedo the UK. Then the EU and UK sink together.

Anyway, volatility is a good thing at times and opens up opportunities for the brave at heart. So basically, there wont be any disasters as commonsense wins the day eventually.

Germany will do best out of this and strengthen their hand as the UK's financial sector weakens a bit. Germany will be Kings of the EU instead of just Lords, and the other EU countries becoming more subservient to them.
 
Brexit Fallout - The big traders got it all wrong.

The Brexit market volatility was about big traders placing bad bets and little to do with the effects of the vote itself.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Is the Brexit drama finished already? I am still short on GBPJPY and I've been losing quite a lot today (270 pip to be more precise). I am expecting the GBP will reach new lows in the coming days/weeks, but the SSI is 1.7 on long, so most traders today take advantage by the recovery of the GBP

What concerns me is the fact that USDCHF had the biggest fall on 15/01/2015 and in the next days, it recovered from fall and never reached a lower value since it had in the first day. Is there a possibility that the same could happen to GBP? I think it's a different story and the implications of the Brexit will linger around for much longer. But my account does not agree with my thinking, at least not today :)

Nick
 
NickF said:
Is the Brexit drama finished already? I am still short on GBPJPY and I've been losing quite a lot today (270 pip to be more precise). I am expecting the GBP will reach new lows in the coming days/weeks, but the SSI is 1.7 on long, so most traders today take advantage by the recovery of the GBP
Nick
Click to expand...
Obviously by lost "270 pips" you mean gave back 270 pips of (x amount pips) profit on GBPJPY ... don't you?
 
NickF said:
Is the Brexit drama finished already?...
Click to expand...

No. It's only the end of the beginning and potentially the beginning of the ending.

However, short positions may be threatened by a variety of factors when the market is in a chaotic state.

Dead cat bounces, stop runs during periods of illiquidity, central bank interventions etc. are things one may need to consider when assessing the risk of their positional exposure.
 
Wysiwyg said:
Obviously by lost "270 pips" you mean gave back 270 pips of (x amount pips) profit on GBPJPY ... don't you?
Click to expand...

Well, not quite. My account shows that I made $78 since 24/06/2016 and at the moment I have open positions totaling -$193. So, overall I'm on negative. Don't ask me how I manage to lose money. I have an innate talent in picking the wrong direction or timing :)

Nick
 
NickF said:
Well, not quite. My account shows that I made $78 since 24/06/2016 and at the moment I have open positions totaling -$193. So, overall I'm on negative. Don't ask me how I manage to lose money. I have an innate talent in picking the wrong direction or timing :)

Nick
Click to expand...

:D Okay. At least you're in the high percentage category with that tendency. My reckoning is the trader is out of synchronicity with the market. Either too soon or too late with entry and exit. Add the innate desire to be right and it is easy to see where many go wrong. At least you're learning is not expensive.
 
Wysiwyg said:
:D Okay. At least you're in the high percentage category with that tendency. My reckoning is the trader is out of synchronicity with the market. Either too soon or too late with entry and exit. Add the innate desire to be right and it is easy to see where many go wrong. At least you're learning is not expensive.
Click to expand...

At some moment I was ahead over $240. I closed all transactions, close to bottom but I was anxious not to lose further drops, so I didn't wait long enough to short again. I had a thought, that maybe I should wait a bit more, but I was too impatient to listen to it.

It is true that I didn't lose much money. I'll recover all of it by renouncing at luxury items for the next ten years (such as toilet paper).

Nick
 
cynic said:
Many a trader of the daemonic bourse has had their capital reduced to a lesser sum.
Click to expand...

You need not convince me of that!

I know of a few extremely advanced programmers in AB who struggle to get to a consistently profitable level. These are guys who can make AB 'sing' with their coding ability. I remain very much of the opinion that there's an x factor, which is at base, psychological. I have collected quite a few research papers which support such a view.

So most of my trading is systematic, and it makes me a small return, but nothing I can rely on as a sole source of income. I doubt it ever will. The biggest three day return ever *available* from my stock systems occurred from last Thurs-Mon.... and I chose to sit it out. I just didn't feel confident enough which is ridiculous considering the amount of 'disaster testing' I've done.

The big question (for me) is whether I can ever move to a discretionary approach and make it work. The possibility seems like it's lifetimes away...
 

Similar threads

R
The Financial Endgame
Replies
18
Views
9K
qldfrog
qldfrog
Top