Trading review processes

[MRC & Co]

No time like the present. Your never 100% confident with trading, the markets always change, your just taking a punt in the end, a punt that your 'edge' will remain or that you are adapting your edge. When markets change, you have unprofitable periods sometimes, until your upto date with the markets again and on the same wave-length.

Just MO.

 

[white_goodman]

Interesting part of THs post in the Phoenix thread.

When should one stop simming and start on live in your opinion? (not directed only at TH btw)

If you have been simming, with good results, when does that point come you should choose to go live? 100 trades? 1000? 10000?

Interested to hear thoughts, as I pretty much have no idea tbh, I feel I should just keep simming until I feel absolutely certain and 100% confident I can be profitable? Even though my stats aren't that bad and I have done well on well over 100+ trades

well 'we' have been doing around 100 or so trades a day for 3 months and are almost going live, so 60 trade days = 6000 trades.... sounds bout right..

but yeh ur right, ultimately it depends on your timeframe, confidence and sim history

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

No time like the present. Your never 100% confident with trading, the markets always change, your just taking a punt in the end, a punt that your 'edge' will remain or that you are adapting your edge. When markets change, you have unprofitable periods sometimes, until your upto date with the markets again and on the same wave-length.

Just MO.

Hmm yeah I guess. Its irritating me, because I am doing quite well on my sim accounts, but as soon as I try a live trade, it turns to ****, I always seem to get in too early and take profit too quick, because I must be too fearful or something, so I then go back to simming rather than milking it and losing too much real stuff, but when I go back to sim I do well again

 

[crown]

Hmm yeah I guess. Its irritating me, because I am doing quite well on my sim accounts, but as soon as I try a live trade, it turns to ****, I always seem to get in too early and take profit too quick, because I must be too fearful or something, so I then go back to simming rather than milking it and losing too much real stuff, but when I go back to sim I do well again

My current experience of what you describe, has come down to insufficient starting capital.

The confidence to take the position, 1 that you know is a winner, but dont hold it because it needs to be banked. Only to see it run off and do 200 points on the perfect entry.
Heartbreaking stuff.

 

[Trembling Hand]

When should one stop simming and start on live in your opinion? (not directed only at TH btw)

If you have been simming, with good results, when does that point come you should choose to go live? 100 trades? 1000? 10000?

Interested to hear thoughts, as I pretty much have no idea tbh, I feel I should just keep simming until I feel absolutely certain and 100% confident I can be profitable? Even though my stats aren't that bad and I have done well on well over 100+ trades

May I offer my humble drunken opinion? I believe its two fold

Its a matter of steps, correct steps. In backtesting/simming there is a lot more going on than just learning how to trade patterns. It enables you to develop in a non-threatening way other market skills. Have a look at the last post off the madman thread. Thats pure inexperience - nothing but time will cure that waffle.

And Mr C has hit on the other point thats important IMO. Once you have been there you know what it looks like, real profitability, hopefully when the market changes you can firstly recognise it and then adapt with what is worth keeping of your old approach. Doing it first on sim just expands your experience without the torment of real $$'s.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

May I offer my humble drunken opinion? I believe its two fold

Go ya hardest

Its a matter of steps, correct steps. In backtesting/simming there is a lot more going on than just learning how to trade patterns. It enables you to develop in a non-threatening way other market skills. Have a look at the last post off the madman thread. Thats pure inexperience - nothing but time will cure that waffle.

What other market skills? How does one know if they are the correct steps? What ARE those steps?

I think most of the time that a new trader is learning, he is sorting through all the **** that is around, swapping from method to method, all the Holy Grails It takes that long to realize how markets move, realize what is ACTUALLY going to make him profitable...and by then hes either blown up multiple times or quit, or both. Thats how its been for me anyway, apart from the quitting bit. I've spent most of my time sorting through all the BS thats out there, its only been recent months that I have even began to understand, get a hint at what it actually takes, of which I am probably far off.

The ones that do know what it takes(really know, not just think they know), are too busy doing it to help too much, its like goldmines, not going to scream and shout when you find it I guess. After all, if it wasn't for all the losing traders, there wouldn't any successful ones I suppose lol

 

[Trembling Hand]

Hmm yeah I guess. Its irritating me, because I am doing quite well on my sim accounts, but as soon as I try a live trade, it turns to ****, I always seem to get in too early and take profit too quick, because I must be too fearful or something, so I then go back to simming rather than milking it and losing too much real stuff, but when I go back to sim I do well again

As I'm in no state to be handing out advise but I will 2 more things,

1 Harden the **** up, its meant to hurt.

2. http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/01/decision-making-in-trading-how.html

 

[nomore4s]

As I'm in no state to be handing out advise but I will 2 more things,

1 Harden the **** up, its meant to hurt.

2. http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/01/decision-making-in-trading-how.html

That is a great post by Brett Steenbarger.
Thanks TH.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

As I'm in no state to be handing out advise but I will 2 more things,

1 Harden the **** up, its meant to hurt.

2. http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/01/decision-making-in-trading-how.html

Harden the stars up, wow great, is that all it takes! Cheers!

Yes thats a great post, but thats it. Doesn't help in any way whatsoever as far as I'm concerned, hes just pointing the usual stuff out, adding the lame "its like XYZ" stories and thats it. How does that help anyone? So you say " OK I will make sure I can trade under pressure"? Yeah BS. Or "OK I will make sure I look at the whole picture to come to a reasonable hypothesis next time". Sure you will.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Sam your the punter thats a wins on a sim but crap live. You tell us why?

I'll just re-quote the last paragraph cuz i like it:

It's that ability to see the whole field under pressure that distinguishes many of the best traders from many of the rest. Anyone can pick out the right targets when they have all the time in the world; the challenge is learning decision-making so well--and making it so second nature--that the right actions will come to you even in the heat of the moment. That is why practice under realistic conditions, eventually with money on the line, is crucial to the developing trader: We learn to perform only by repeatedly facing the pressures of risk, reward, gain, and loss.

I also like this :aliena:

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Sam your the punter thats a wins on a sim but crap live. You tell us why?

If I knew why, would I be crap on live? I'm thinking that I chase the market because I'm impatient, that may be my problem, but who knows? How does one work on such a problem? Sim till they are blue in the face? I have been "practicing under realistic conditions"?

Perhaps I just need more, this is my point, when does the time come you think you should go live.

Why do you KNOW you are profitable TH? Did you sim for years on end, whilst blowing up multiple accounts? Genuinely interested, not havin a go

I like this one :bananasmi

 

[MRC & Co]

If I knew why, would I be crap on live? I'm thinking that I chase the market because I'm impatient, that may be my problem, but who knows? How does one work on such a problem? Sim till they are blue in the face? I have been "practicing under realistic conditions"?

You just told us the answer. Only you know the difference, only you can work on that.

If you think it's because your impatient and chase the market, then don't chase it! Simple as that. It is your greed getting in the way, and the fear of missing out on the move and then you get chopped up instead for chasing it! You should work on this problem live I believe. If you know what your edge is on the SIM, then you will know what you are doing different live and you can work on it in a real environment.

I think your biggest problem, is you want to 'KNOW', impossible. Nothing in trading is sure, same as life.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Why do you KNOW you are profitable TH? Did you sim for years on end, whilst blowing up multiple accounts? Genuinely interested, not havin a go

yep I've blown some $'s or three. But during that time I could see mostly improvement. The biggest gains came during two periods, 1st was when I got over all the TA gumph and started to practise correctly MY ideas on sim and got results. The second was a true "Ahrrha moment" that may be in a book one day :

If I knew why, would I be crap on live? I'm thinking that I chase the market because I'm impatient, that may be my problem, but who knows? How does one work on such a problem? Sim till they are blue in the face? I have been "practicing under realistic conditions"?

Perhaps I just need more, this is my point, when does the time come you think you should go live.

How realistic is this? Its certainly not deliberative practise.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

yep I've blown some $'s or three. But during that time I could see mostly improvement. The biggest gains came during two periods, 1st was when I got over all the TA gumph and started to practise correctly MY ideas on sim and got results. The second was a true "Ahrrha moment" that may be in a book one day :

lol right. You wanna be paid for the 2nd idea, I get it. :

How realistic is this? Its certainly not deliberative practise.

Not very realistic, I said that in one of my posts in that thread and on my blog. The first graphs I posted where I was up 60 points or whatever it was, and left the trade on over the break, they were realistic. Nothing realistic about those ones though, I was just going nuts to see what was capable. I don't plan on trading HSI live until way down the track anyway.

Cheers for the um....help.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Cheers for the um....help.

Oh sorry you wanted me to help YOU. That will be possible with my private tuition after the book .

In the mean time try answering these questions every morning for the next month.

What are you working on in your trading? How will you be working on it? How will you know whether or not you're successful?

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/01/from-trading-goals-to-trading.html

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Oh sorry you wanted me to help YOU. That will be possible with my private tuition after he book .

In the mean time try answering these questions every morning for the next month.

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/01/from-trading-goals-to-trading.html

It wouldn't be helping just ME. It's a forum Might actually get some quality posts on here for once, but nevermind.

Cheers for the link

 

[MRC & Co]

It wouldn't be helping just ME. It's a forum Might actually get some quality posts on here for once, but nevermind.

Cheers for the link

And this is the problem with a lot of forum posters, you can't help yourself, your looking for something that just isn't there!

 

[Naked shorts]

Finally!! TH is bringing out a book!!

 

[SmellyTerror]

The ones that do know what it takes(really know, not just think they know), are too busy doing it to help too much, its like goldmines, not going to scream and shout when you find it I guess. … It wouldn't be helping just ME. It's a forum Might actually get some quality posts on here for once, but nevermind.

He's got an edge, and if it's something that can be explained on a forum, then everyone would try it, and that would kill the edge. If I see a pattern that will always give me 10 pips, and I tell everyone, that bid is going to get awful crowded. People will think: hey, 9 pips will do. Then that bid'll get crowded, and people will decide they're happy with 8.

Until it's dead.

Keeping in mind that I don't actually know anything: but that's what makes this all so frustrating for us folk at home. We can't even get a sense of a real, working plan that can be explained. We can get old ones that stopped working years ago - and they stopped working largely *because* we (and hence everyone else) can get them. We can find stuff that can't really be explained (get screen time), and we can learn things that still work only because they only barely work (TA). But there's no "here, do this". It’s hard to know what we’re even practicing.

Which, when you think about it, is one of the coolest parts of the whole game.

My plan, which may be stupid, but it is mine ( : ), is to start with a vague half-system (see here if you want a quick run down, somewhere in that terrible mass of text), trade it, and then review the crap out of it. I figure you're not going to find anything new unless you're in there, elbow deep. Learning why the crap you learned from some guru doesn't work is still learning something.

Pretend that it should work. Rage when you fail. Demolish every trade you make to see wtf just happened. I’ve got charts with scribble all over ‘em. What did I think I was going to get? Why? What ACTUALLY happened? Go look stuff up to explain why the thing I thought was certain didn’t work at all. What else might it have been? What wasn’t I watching? What should I have done, and was there some way I could have known that? Or did I do as well as I could have done, and can I do that again? Pin those charts on the corkboard over my monitor with the “other stuff I need to watch” notes highlighted, and when I see that pattern again – QUICK, what’s going on in the JPY/USD? What’s volume doing? Did any of that do something weird? Is there something happening that I should recognise? Stick that chart next to the other chart.

And some day, just as I would in a computer game, I’ll know when I know what to do, and what to try when I don’t know what to do. You can’t adapt until you’ve got something to adapt.

…and I really don’t have anything at all yet. I’m not even an amateur. There might be patterns that 10% of the time are indicated by that thing over there, and the rest of the time something completely different. How many times do I have to see that 10%-er to recognise it? A hundred times, for something that only comes along every couple of days? I can only stick crap to my board because I’ve been doing this for about 5 minutes. I’m going to have to make files or something. Read ‘em on the bog. Maybe shuffle all my pages and try to sort them again, to see if there are similarities I’m missing. Is it the time of day, or what some market is doing, or was I at the end of a run of stupid losses and getting cranky? I need to make theories so I can bump them on the head. I need to have stupid ideas just so I can go and see why they’re stupid. I need to know what my good ideas are if I’m going to keep doing them. It’s not science unless you can tell when you’re wrong.

Sorry, I keep writing stupidly long posts with tenuous reference to the subject. But don’t you think all of this is cool? It’s like being able to get into the guts of the universe to see how it works. I’ve paid money to play games that this game craps all over.

I’d sim for fun. The possibility of getting paid for this is beyond cool.

 

[nomore4s]

Harden the stars up, wow great, is that all it takes! Cheers!

Yes thats a great post, but thats it. Doesn't help in any way whatsoever as far as I'm concerned, hes just pointing the usual stuff out, adding the lame "its like XYZ" stories and thats it. How does that help anyone? So you say " OK I will make sure I can trade under pressure"? Yeah BS. Or "OK I will make sure I look at the whole picture to come to a reasonable hypothesis next time". Sure you will.

Sam you're missing the point a bit.

You need to identify these problems and then you need to address them. It is a bit like trying to break a bad habit, it's not just saying I need to stop doing it, you need to put procedures or triggers in place that help you identify that you are making these mistakes in the heat of battle and then enable you to take a step back, refocus and then hopefully re-enter the heat of battle again with the right mindset.
But you need to be able to execute these procedures in the heat of battle while under stress when it really matters, this is what makes a great performers in any field - the ability to execute their skills when it matters most and being able to do it regularly.

If I knew why, would I be crap on live? I'm thinking that I chase the market because I'm impatient, that may be my problem, but who knows? How does one work on such a problem? Sim till they are blue in the face? I have been "practicing under realistic conditions"?

Perhaps I just need more, this is my point, when does the time come you think you should go live.

As MrC has already said, it is only you that can identify the reason for this, you are not going to find the answers on any forum.

There is always going to be a certain level of uncertainty when going from sim to live trading.
Maybe you have gone as far as you can with the sim account and it is time for you to test your skills under live conditions? This might be the only way you can get the answer to your question.

You need to identify why your edge is failing when going live and try to find solutions to that problem.
Maybe you need to take the next step in your trading and the below part of TH's link applies to you? Maybe you have ended up in a comfort zone by trading on the sim account and are now finding it hard to push outside that comfort zone? And when you do your skills fail under that pressure?
These are questions only you can answer and then find solutions too.

That is why practice under realistic conditions, eventually with money on the line, is crucial to the developing trader: We learn to perform only by repeatedly facing the pressures of risk, reward, gain, and loss.