Sorry, let me try it another way. What I'm talking about is expectations rather than expectancy. I think that a major element of success, in any endeavor, is shrugging off adversity, and so it is with trading. What newbies attempt to do in times of difficulty is go looking for something else that seems to work, whether that be another indicator, chart pattern or technique. What they need to understand is that nothing works well all of the time. They need to find something that works reasonably well all of the time then manage expectations that the bad comes with the good. Chances are that if they keep chopping and changing - The Beginners Cycle as I call it, then they will tend to always find the bad rather than allowing the good to come on naturally.
As a case in point, in the last 5-months my account is probably about +12% as the market went into this sideways range. Its a damn grind at the moment. Every trade is a small loss or break even with the occasional win. I haven't changed a thing, nor will I. I do know, unreservedly, that this range will break and trends will resume and with trends, up or down, 'easier' profits will also return. I know without doubt that times like Jan 08 through Sep 08 where I made 158% will return.
It's just the good with the bad.
Managing expectations.
Understanding the journey.
That, I believe, is the difference between success and failure.
I find this response very valuable, as are many in this forum..thanks Nick and all.