Traders: Do you try to predict or react to market movements?

[Trembling Hand]

Profitable trading is not simple. If it was, we'd all be rich.

Then you would come back with "well you just need to be smart about it and apply some maths and statistics". How many quants make it onto the Forbes or BRW rich list each year? None. What percentage of managed funds beat the index year in year out? A tiny fraction, and yet they have access to the best and brightest Ivy League graduates.

What I'm saying is that there's a missing element that never gets talked about.

Whoops... wrong there matie,

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/24/business/24hedge.html?pagewanted=all

James Simons, a 69-year-old publicity shy former math professor, uses complex computer-driven mathematical models to make bets on stocks, bonds and commodities, among other things.

His earnings last year were $1.7 billion.

 

[tech/a]

What I'm saying is that there's a missing element that never gets talked about

.

Yeh

Knowing how to trade.

 

[notting]

Whoops... wrong there matie,

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/24/business/24hedge.html?pagewanted=all

Published: April 24, 2007
I wonder how he faired over the next couple of years!

I am not taking a position on this debate just thought it was amusing to note the date of the article. Presumerably his systems would have allowed him to preserve the majority of his gains during the crash and following whipsaw from hell. Presumearbly.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Published: April 24, 2007
I wonder how he faired over the next couple of years!

No need to worry about his returns,

 

[CanOz]

ROTFLMAO at Notting...forever the skeptic Notting? hahaha!

 

[notting]

No need to worry about his returns,
View attachment 46969

Very nice. Thanks mate!!

 

[skyQuake]

Published: April 24, 2007
I wonder how he faired over the next couple of years!

I am not taking a position on this debate just thought it was amusing to note the date of the article. Presumerably his systems would have allowed him to preserve the majority of his gains during the crash and following whipsaw from hell. Presumearbly.

More than just preserve capital...
80% in 08, 39% in 09, and 30% in 10.

And this is net of the incredible 5/44 fee!

 

[sinner]

Published: April 24, 2007
I wonder how he faired over the next couple of years!

I am not taking a position on this debate just thought it was amusing to note the date of the article. Presumerably his systems would have allowed him to preserve the majority of his gains during the crash and following whipsaw from hell. Presumearbly.

Renaissance equity, MBS and other funds for instos to invest in got chopped in the late 2007 market vol, but nothing more/less than other similar funds.

Not that I checked, but I personally doubt the Medallion fund had any problems with robustness during the GFC, those trends are exactly where this fund will shine. I have heard one or two traders telling me they think Renaissance has been in trouble for a long time, but I had a hard time corroborating their info.