TPG - TPG Telecom

[Tightwad]

I haven't had too many problems with them, having to deal with overseas customer service is a joke though. Teoh has managed to make a lot of savings with whatever he takes over. Customer churn rates are lower from memory Telstra on 10% vs about 6% on TPM.

There seems room for modest growth still and the singapore mobile stuff is on the horizon. Talk about NBN and how RSP's can't make enough margin is helpful, hopefully something will come of it. I'd previously taken profits on half my holding, bought a few more.

 

[dpgrubesic]

Anyone think this is over sold in light of recent events?

 

[Miner]

Anyone think this is over sold in light of recent events?

I believe TPG got sentiment from VOC where as two have different scenarios even on same business.
TPG's financial result was robust and market (IMO) over reacted.
People with nerve could take the depressed price as a wait and watch and jump into with some cash.
VOC on the other hand is descending with a bad shape. That does mean the rivals like TPG and TLS will capture the gaps.
My two cents and Do hold .

 

[skc]

I believe TPG got sentiment from VOC where as two have different scenarios even on same business.
TPG's financial result was robust and market (IMO) over reacted.
People with nerve could take the depressed price as a wait and watch and jump into with some cash.
VOC on the other hand is descending with a bad shape. That does mean the rivals like TPG and TLS will capture the gaps.
My two cents and Do hold .

TPM's report was OK but the forecast was much lower than market expectations. I don't believe the market over-reacted. If anything it's just dialing back its previous (mostly warranted) exuberance.

 

[dpgrubesic]

I dont know if this will bottom out anytime soon putting this on the watch if it tips below 6.50$ might be worth buying? I dont know if it has been over-sold but it would have to be approaching at semi-attractive entree point. Any thoughts?

 

[skc]

Big move by TPM into mobile... as well discussed over at the TLS and VOC threads.

A question... it appears that the spectrum won by TPM is only licensed for 11 years. That doesn't seem like a very long time. Does anyone know what happens at the end of the license? Does TPM need to re-bid? Would the re-bid price be as high as the first time round? Or would technology moved on such that this spectrum becomes irrevelant anyway?

 

[Miner]

Big move by TPM into mobile... as well discussed over at the TLS and VOC threads.

A question... it appears that the spectrum won by TPM is only licensed for 11 years. That doesn't seem like a very long time. Does anyone know what happens at the end of the license? Does TPM need to re-bid? Would the re-bid price be as high as the first time round? Or would technology moved on such that this spectrum becomes irrelevant anyway?

My observations on the Telco saga:
TPG needs skills to be poached from TLS very soon.
They attempted too quick to be too big and SKC rightly asked 11 years for an infrastructure company is too short scenario. I did not see any long term strategic undertaking on their submission on ASX. What their strength is that they will start with new technology and lower maintenance cost. But there is a big uphill task to establish their credentials to make a large bit on TLS loyalists. Many places have no choice but to rely on Telstra. Big Corporates still prefer Telstra.
Another operator unnoticed - AYS. They also rising but with TPG move probably they will look for helpline.
Disclosure: holding VOC, TPM (do not want to see their price on Tuesday - It would probably lower than their right issue price) and AYM. Sold out TLS (at least) with no gain no loss basis after pocketing dividend. Not happy with scenario coming next week but no choice now.

 

[skc]

My observations on the Telco saga:
TPG needs skills to be poached from TLS very soon.
They attempted too quick to be too big and SKC rightly asked 11 years for an infrastructure company is too short scenario.

Surely they can't just lose the spectrum at the end of the 11 years?! I don't see how the numbers can possibly stack up if there is no mobile business after 11 years.

FWIW, I think the move by TPM is actually a strategic defensive move. David Teoh hasn't explicitly admitted it... but he did say that it's something they had to do. With a $40B NBN gorilla trampling their core broadband business, they need that mobile string to its bow. There would have been no growth opportunities 3 years out.

It's a bold and risky move... but I admire Teoh's entrepreneurial spirit and it's rare to see company make bold moves to invest for the future. It doesn't mean the shareholders will be better off than now in the absolute sense, but perhaps better than the alternative where they don't have much of a future.

The take up of the insto offer will give a good hint on how TPM is likely to open on Tuesday. It should have been completed by now but perhaps the news flow is a bit slower on the Easter eve.

 

[Miner]

Surely they can't just lose the spectrum at the end of the 11 years?! I don't see how the numbers can possibly stack up if there is no mobile business after 11 years.

FWIW, I think the move by TPM is actually a strategic defensive move. David Teoh hasn't explicitly admitted it... but he did say that it's something they had to do. With a $40B NBN gorilla trampling their core broadband business, they need that mobile string to its bow. There would have been no growth opportunities 3 years out.

It's a bold and risky move... but I admire Teoh's entrepreneurial spirit and it's rare to see company make bold moves to invest for the future. It doesn't mean the shareholders will be better off than now in the absolute sense, but perhaps better than the alternative where they don't have much of a future.

The take up of the insto offer will give a good hint on how TPM is likely to open on Tuesday. It should have been completed by now but perhaps the news flow is a bit slower on the Easter eve.

Yes SKC Tuesday will unfold many things. Of course how market, Trump, North Korea travel in next four days will also affect on Tuesday.
One thing for sure, sometimes an excellent entrepreneur could manage a $500 M business over years but not necessarily repeat success for a much diversified high-tech business of three times the size.
Size is not always true.
So David Teoh and SOL have put a fortune on this capital raising. Surely those billionaires have much better knowledge than many salaried executives, so let us be optimistic. In fact if TPM dives down on Tuesday much lower than $5.25 then I will forgo the rights and buy from market.

 

[nicknick]

Hey guys, I am relativity new to the game and am just learning to study companies to find some good value. Most of the telecommunications shares are tumbling and it's interesting to read what they are all planning to do to going forward. TPG seems a reasonable price at the moment and I like their plans of releasing a data only plan for 9.99 to really capture that younger audience who basically just use whats app and messenger to communicate. What's your thoughts on TPG going forward? Thank you in advnace

 

[greggles]

Hey guys, I am relativity new to the game and am just learning to study companies to find some good value. Most of the telecommunications shares are tumbling and it's interesting to read what they are all planning to do to going forward. TPG seems a reasonable price at the moment and I like their plans of releasing a data only plan for 9.99 to really capture that younger audience who basically just use whats app and messenger to communicate. What's your thoughts on TPG going forward? Thank you in advnace

Hard to say at the moment. It's fallen from a high of around $6.90 in early January to $5.17 on Friday. There appears to be support at $5.10, a level which it mostly seems to be staying above. Volume is up a bit recently but at the moment TPM appears to be in a consolidation phase.

I'd be watching for any strong move up on high volume as a sign that buyers are in control and sellers are backing off.

 

[galumay]

TPG seems a reasonable price at the moment

How do you calculate TPG to be a reasonable price? Have you actually done the research and analysis and come up with a range of value, or are you just assuming because the price is lower than it was in the past, its a "reasonable price"? Because if that is the case its a very dangerous trap for an investor to fall into and is a classic case of anchoring bias.

I have no idea, because I dont see any value in the sector, they all look like awful businesses, badly managed, shrinking margins, intense competition...

Finally I would never own part of a business that has the sort of disregard for customers that David Teoh at TPG has demonstrated, long term that is value destructing.

 

[tinhat]

Nice break-out today on big volume over confirmation that TPG and Vodafone Hutchison are exploring merger. It looks like a short squeeze might be on so I have an order in the market to take some profits. So far it has been a positive reporting season and I think there are plenty of opportunities to find good value, especially in any market pull-back. I think its a good time to put some cash into reserve.

 

[HelloU]

(another side to this is SOL)

 

[notting]

More shorter slaughter!!

 

[barney]

More shorter slaughter!!

Definitely looks like the trend today

 

[greggles]

TPG and Vodafone about to merge? Yesterday's announcement has certainly set the TPM share price on fire.

22 August 2018

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSIONS REGARDING MERGER WITH VHA

TPG Telecom Limited (TPG) notes the recent media speculation and confirms that it has engaged in exploratory discussions with Vodafone Hutchison Australia Pty Ltd (VHA) regarding a potential “merger of equals” of the two companies.

The TPG Board notes that there is no certainty that any transaction will eventuate or what the terms of a transaction would be.

TPG makes this statement, and will continue to keep the market informed, in accordance with its continuous disclosure obligations.

From $5.67 to $8.52 in five trading sessions is a pretty impressive share price increase for a medium cap telecommunications company. The market seems to think that this merger is a done deal. Is it I wonder?

 

[barney]

HTA is up around 100% today after the announcement

 

[PZ99]

Merge announced > http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-30/tpg-vodafone-announce-merger/10181634

Spoiler

Australia's third and fourth largest telecommunications companies, TPG Telecom and Vodafone Hutchinson Australia (VHA), have confirmed they will combine in a "proposed merger of equals".

However, Vodafone will have the majority stake (50.1 per cent), while TPG's stake will be 49.9 per cent.

"The merger will create a more effective challenger to Telstra and Optus," TPG said in a statement on Thursday.

TPG estimates the merged company will be worth $15 billion, and the deal to be finalised next year.

After the merger, the combined entity will remain listed on the Australian stock exchange as TPG Telecom Limited.

Whether or not the merger proceeds will depend on the companies getting approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) and the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB).

VHA is a privately owned company, and is a joint venture between its British parent company Vodafone Group Plc and Hutchison Telecommunications (Australia) Limited.

The board of the merged entity would include directors from both companies.

TPG's chief executive David Teoh, would be the non-executive chairman of the merged group, while Vodafone boss Inaki Berroeta would assume the position of CEO and managing director of the new entity.

 

[tinhat]

I couldn't resist the temptation to take my money off the table. I just sold at $9.30. I don't have a strong conviction about TPM pre-merger, so I'd rather put the money in the bank for the moment. I will be interested to hear of any thought/analysis of the proposed merged entity. I see the price has continued to shoot up. $9.54 as I type. I expect there is a massive short squeeze on.