Top of this cycle for ASX 200, cash is king?

[kahuna1]

Tee Hee ....

From before ....

Market wise, well ... if the USA holds true to course .... and those idiot savant computer things in now open and legal ... plunge protection scheme .... work, first stop on say the S+P 500 is passed a 25% bounce which is very normal to occur quickly .... next the 50% between the low of say the s+p at 5,333 or so and 5,992 or some 660 points so half that is 330 .... so .... 5,660 .... or there about and that's, well ... one magic rally day away.

Magic rally .... must be Kim from Korea meeting .... or the third excuse in 11 days of up up up .... similar about the USA Fed slowing down raises ....
well we are there ... NOTHING ... not a thing can shake this correction. Not even, well, a company that had 15 times its debt in cash, according to their accounts, being bankrupt, within 12 months out of China .... ASIA went down, USA ... went up ... EU and others reacting to well shocking news surrounding Trump and his actions, erased any loss ... to ... well ... any and all news being like it was not long ago ... any negative is a positive and any positive is a positive.

A number showing weakness in The USA .... buy ... as rates are not going to rise .... if its a strong number ... buy .... because its a positive ... hilarious and just play the ranges. Key levels right now. As to shutdown, if it was say Germany, it would be a smoking black hole as the UK found out via Brexit ... but ... well ... nope ... we will have a rally however it ends ... so whilst markets go up and down, the stopping point at 50% of the bounce unlikely to stop them. It should given some of the appalling revelations that make Nixon and his Watergate actions look trivial, the sad reality is, as Trump said, he could walk outside Trump Tower in NY and shoot a gun, killing some poor innocent and not have anything happen.

Strange position I find myself in, one foot or toe seeing the inside of things and the other, with efforts to stop these idiots. The G30 minus one is working towards actually making an impact on claims via one Oligarchy head he paid 25% tax, yet none seen in the EU, Or USA or Japan .... or China, so that's actually 90% of the world and its markets, and overall tax paid is 5%, since we all can now see the other nations tax filings. Times are changing and first step is to make it criminal, the people who arrange these schemes. It has of course always been that way, but investment banks and accounting firms are on notice and should be concerned. A point I raised here in Davros and was, well, told what an idiot I was because they OWNED them. I shut my mouth and took my rebuke as I should have. USA with 3.5 billion a year in political donations, both sides of the fence, then another amount doubling that, OFF the books but tax deductions have it well covered. So 7 billion a year, each year and every year, of course, for them, Democracy and the will of the people is an aside.

Not so for the G30 minus one ... Sure some of it goes on, but the scale of it, arrogance and impact is astounding.

The first step of the DRONGO tax is this criminalization of it ... the beauty of the Drongo tax and tax theft .. the secret os NOT so secret anymore and still the dismissive nature of these people v the needs of the society and many is an aside. After being told I am an idiot, for pointing out the first step, I am not about to do it again. Just push harder for DRONGO tax, a simple fair and elegant tax to be implemented which will, radically alter finances for 80% of the world.

On Markets ...

Oh well, never ever bet against stupidity .... or the plunge protection team. All rules are shelved with the second, the first ... well .... stupid is what it is.

Noise, and deafening ... sift it out and from Davos and the Oligarchy meeting going on prior to the World Economic Forum as per usual, they are as per usual pushing their own agendas. No tax for any member and well ...

TAKE CARE

Mark K

 

[kahuna1]

Ho Hum,


USA actually stopped at the 50% retracement and for now ... going down.


Lost totally in the noise, two things and big things for Australia.
China related, and USA declared yesterday its going ahead with Huawei case in Canada. This is ugly.


Even uglier, the Chinese wanted to come early to next weeks meeting. USA said no thanks. In fact a series of comments by the Chinese yesterday got lost in all the idiotic noise. They were very blunt and very clear about China and its IT rights. They were basically laying down the law in their view and NO WIGGLE ROOM. NONE ....


So whilst this trade deal may be sealed, its unlikely to have any substance at all. If I were a betting man, I dont even think one will be made and China will just be forced to go, get stuffed.


I note, idiot media reports about China GDP at 21 year lows, well 21 years ago, their economy was 20% of the current size, 10 years ago .... 50% the current size. Same argument and view i have had for a long time on this, whilst this trade war is NOT a good thing, China if they had the bloody correct exchange rate is larger than the USA. Its growing of course SLOWER as the overall economy matures.


One a positive, the other, well, the stance is not good for the USA side. I note also that France sent a fine to one of the tech giants for sharing info and its about to become a blizzard via the new EU rules. Add to that, sometime soon a transaction tax for the tax evaders and likely they adopt the new Drongo tax when announced, the clock one might say is ticking.


IBM announced a set of results, the likes of which, well I have 35 years of looking at these things and I giggled when I saw them. The old recurring and non recurring expenses. So we have 10 different rules for how the tech girls in the USA report stuff and trying to sift out the bottom line is becoming tedious to put it mildly.


Our market, well, it seems supported despite the USA cold overnight. Rest of the noise, well twitter reading give me a great laxative dose and try not to do it. USA remains shut down, and the hot air and bluff and bravado coming out is, well amazing.
New Democrat house lady, 29 ... Latino I think, proposed tax of 70% on earnings above 10 million in the USA. Well, it became a 70% for everyone immediately on FOX news ... and gee ... I needed more toilet paper. She is being called a socialist for actually trying to get upper incomes to PAY TAX .... Gates paid 12% v someone on 100k is unable to avoid paying 35% .... and Buffett ... 15% and he doesn't declare much income a mere 50 million at most average the last 20 years,


Please join me in congratulating Buffet with 100 billion or so, given 25 to his family, his sons ranch on the Mexico border runs .... well ... safaris, But Via his tax returns v wealth Buffett is 2,000 YEARS old this year. Yep at 50 million declared v 100 billion ... or 150 if I count some he has given away .... he could be 3,000 years old. Some I might add his hapless son aged 64 has built a ranch on the Mexican border, paid the police off and in a recent article was pointing a high powered rifle at those terrorist !!


I know, you think I am making it up !!

https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/howard...county-11103225

Over the past several years, 64-year-old Howard Buffett �" using wealth supplied by his father �" has been waging his own border war in Cochise County


Tee hee ... nothing like your unpaid tax dollars at work. OOOH Trump declared yesterday that Latinos vote now for him at 50% .... his highest approval rating. Maybe they are the ones the hapless racist worthless son of Buffet has in his sights ?


Have fun
Cheers
Mark K

 

[kahuna1]

OOOHHH ...

The sole financial underwriter of the Howard G. Buffett Foundation is Warren Buffett, who donates roughly $150 million to $180 million to his son’s charity annually, according to tax records.

Holy Laxative,

I thought I had seen it all. Yes MR Nice guy ... pays no tax, bugger the welfare of the 99% others and he has his own private Army.

 

[Xendragon]

Ho Hum,


I note, idiot media reports about China GDP at 21 year lows, well 21 years ago, their economy was 20% of the current size, 10 years ago .... 50% the current size. Same argument and view i have had for a long time on this, whilst this trade war is NOT a good thing, China if they had the bloody correct exchange rate is larger than the USA. Its growing of course SLOWER as the overall economy matures.

They are reporting China GDP "Growth" is at is at 20 year lows not GDP size.

 

[kahuna1]

Really .... Why did I take u off ignore ?

Yep, 6.4% growth ... is 12.8% GROWTH and demand for goods and raw materials from 10 years ago.
I am well aware about GDP size, that was the POINT I made. Back to ignore ...

cheers

 

[Xendragon]

Ah … I see. Then why didn’t you write that ?. Is English your first language?

You do realise your point is as pointless as their point? More to the point would be that GDP growth in China is slowing. Oh look I made my own point.

Back to ignore I guess …

 

[kahuna1]

Howdy,

RAH RAH RAH .... USA USA USA ..... zzzzzzz

Seriously, I know the market had a bad December, and yep the rules go out the window with the plunge protection team in the USA, but seriously ?

UP 8% in January ?

Basically the USA fed is muzzled, ignore the shutdown, ignore the capex numbers did not move. Apparently, well its China China right now as it was the USA fed a few days ago.

NOISE and our market is about as related to the USA as China. Or its becoming that way, the Chinese market which has a mind of its own, our market did a lot better in Dec than the USA and of course its massive spike even into early 2019, has stopped like a ton of bricks.

So where did we end January ? Up 218 points or less than half the USA.

Obviously we await the Royal commission report into banks out after close Monday, but, being suspicious, as its the only way to go, the action has been obvious of late. What I mean is that WBC lost 5% in two days to its lows this morning before recovering, but its not rallying much. I don't know what the royal commission will recommend but so far the banks have been hammered into hell. All down in the bottom 10% of their recent ranges and so far away from the highs its insane.

Given the market action and the fact the report whilst NOT public had to be printed, it would appear I did not get my advance copy and it seems it might not be very kind to the banks !!

What is pretty clear, is the insanity of the USA side. One hand the lower end of the population is being squeezed like a pip. The other is the polarization of the Democrats and Republicans and the MEDIA is shocking. Never seen this before, NEVER. FOX is a disgrace and its reporting makes Trump look honest. When you have 3 people in the USA with more than the 180 million lowest, its insane. Same for $400- expense for an emergency the FED now estimates that 40% of all Americans cannot meet this. Something is very very wrong with this picture over there.

Our side, I read with disgust the Tax office report and are they BLIND ? Or just being bribed ? Microsoft when before the Senate had sales of USD 2.2 billion in Australia now 3 billion AUD .... so i go to the ATO tax report on what tax has been paid ? The income was a mere 500 million in sales NOT 3 billion and from the 2012 senate committee the doofus Gates had there admitted all sales are put through Singapore and a tax haven then Bermuda. I look at their accounts ,,,, a margin of near 25% on sales ... so 750 million PROFIT out of Australia and tax owing at 225 million and they paid less than 10% of it ?

Really ?

Apple is worse .... Google and Facebook again the same ... easy to reconstruct sales in Australia and its been illegal since 1977 to TRANSFER PRICE this stuff overseas. Then again a whole lot of Apple cards seem to have made people forget this. Whilst the ATO has tried, its got one year at HALF the expected amount and they went back to NORMAL.

All an aside for now.

Times eventually are changing in the USA irrespective of the wishes of the elite. That NO TAX was paid when funds were meant to be repatriated there from stolen tax overseas is telling. I suspect TRUMP is forced to give a special amnesty even lower then the 15% rate he did.

For now, USA fed is muzzled. Trump makes Nixon look like a saint. Direction of USA market is irrelevant as 30 nations including Australia are about to make life for tax thieves a lot harder. VERY VERY large swing about to occur in the USA which will take TIME. Likely 10 years, but some very long serving politicians were unseated in absolute surprise losses in 2018. Odds ranged from 6/1 to 50/1 and the unseated were spending at 10 times the rate of the people who got elected and kicked them out. To change senate will take 2-3 elections so 6 years. I doubt much changes even if Democrats elect a president I sadly think Bernie is too old and some more moderate corporate Democrat much like Obama who took 65 million from Goldman Sachs and then 35 million from Walmart family the Waltons and whilst a nice guy, did bugger all for health and welfare and pensions and so on.

All an aside for Australia.

We have low rates for a long time I believe. We face an idiotic change to franking credits, it SHOULD be means tested to say 50 k or more income verses hitting self funded pensioners. Anyhow, whatever the royal commission does, spank the banks has already occured and if rates remain here, which seems likely for 2-3 years, low rates, earning 5.6.7 even 8% is a good thing.

On the mix of the market, TLS did a stupid rally, whilst TPG is not going to set up a mobile network, Telstra is hopeless and the NBN deal is not what they expected so dividends will, irrespective of TPG likely fall and fall till when I suspect the government will wave the white flag of the NBN as it was stupid anyhow and even 4g gives me 60MBS mobile data and 5 G try 200 MBS ... the plan was, well ... stupid.


I note FMG is rallying like a thing on fire. Sure VAle and Brazil was awful, and good for their overall Iron Ore price, last time I looked and it was a few days ago, the HIGH END high grade Iron ore was on fire an not so much for FMG. Its got lower grade rusty dirt. Whilst longer term have always liked it, was amazed when it recently went below $4- and just as astounded its up here.



All the rest ? Well, housing side is sucking wind and it happens after a billion zillion years of rallying. The RBA and APRA did smash on the brakes and rightly so as did various governments making it much more expensive for foreign buyers. As to the long term, its still expensive here verses income and whilst the slide in the banks may be somewhat worry worts on that front. the big 4 are less exposed than some of the smaller ones which strangely have done better.

For now, we just meander along. USA like announces the BEST DEAL EVER ... with China ... then With north Korea ... YAWN. Why ? Well with loss of control of the lower house, there is a surprise coming in about 6 weeks. Possibly prior to that DUMP declares an emergency and builds a wall around the White House so he cant get out !! I speak of a very large wave that, well, is going to make the close of the Government look I suspect very much like a tea party.

I speak of course about the debt ceiling. In the USA. U know the country that is about to reach its peak population in 2025 when the baby boomers start departing in vast numbers and with record low birth rates, not much immigration legally and illegals, well ... so instead of having 500 million in the USA by 2050 its going to be 300 million, or LESS than they have now, shhh its a secret. Its so we could get a tax cut of 1.5 trillion for the rich.



Amazing place. Right now in Senate three senators are proposing a bill to slash all estate tax over 50 million which effects a mere 1,700 families verses 125 million families. Of course, you may have heard Sanders and others talking a 705 tax on the Rich, THIS IS USA not here. The rich here PAY MORE and higher rates, but NOT the USA Gates pays 15% on about 5% of his income. Anyhow, all hell will break loose in 6 weeks I suspect. ITs going to be amusing and a lot of noise. OH Warren another in the 2020 race proposes a tax of 2% then 3% on the wealth they own. Nothing against billionaires, NOT here or in most nations, they PAY tax !! Not the USA.

Oh the event ... in March in the USA ... the DEBT CEILING ... it needs to be raised to accommodate a 1 trillion dollar deficit in 2019.

I will end with a happy 22 trillion dollar debt birthday party. USA has added the GDP of BRAZIL to its debt pile since Trump got elected. NEVER EVER before at this stage of an economic cycle has a government been spending at 5% deficit. Things are sadly NOT what they appear, USA stocks at record highs but outside the top 10% .... a mere 5% of shares are owned by the lower 95% in the USA. This is a factual number.

Not sure what the hell to do. Our Government, and most EU and other nations fiscal responsibility and balancing budgets in EU has been a priority for now over 10 years. Ours, same thing and with a mere 15% NET debt Federally, we have one of the lowest in the world. Then again if one goes to the IMF they DON'T include even RBA assets as an offset to the debt or the FUTURE fund. They in the case of Singapore report their debt to GDP at 100% of GDP and ignore the 250% of GDP the Singapore govt funds hold in overseas assets. Talk about BS ....

Why the hell we are paying 100 million to the IMF or World bank or OECD when the numbers are so Oligarchy influenced is like how we bend over and let Apple pay NO TAX here. I might add OECD a mere 15 million has identical numbers like the IMF and World bank and on tax collection they DO NOT INCLUDE ... superannuation which is by definition a tax, overseen by the Tax office not able to be touched till age 67 ... and they don't even include GST so it takes the USA collection of 30% of GDP in taxes, we apparently only collect 27% NOT the 39% reality we DO like most EU nations.

Even more than now !! With the stupid tax coming in ... Imputation. I take 10 APPLE $100- cards and a new Iphone to vote this in !!

Anyhow, USA has its future crumbling and in many ways I thank Trump. Thank him for breaking so many promises and his twitter account with 57 million followers, 40,000 tweets from his deranged mind, He follows ? 47 people and he has liked ? & posts in 10 years !!

The favorite twitter account of the up and coming and I suspect a big big name in the USA in the future, she has a growing base, not even top 500 but its GROWING and growing quick. She follows 2,000 people and in 10 years has done about 2 posts a day and ... thanks ... or LIKES of other posts or comments ? Well over 10,000-posts she has liked. She and I mean of course AOC, has been adding people at the rate of 200k a month whist is not massive, but astounding for a 29 year old first term in office person.

One person preaches to the serfs. and the other. interacts, listens and behaves like someone who gives a FIRETRUCK.

This upcoming debt ceiling should have had the credit rating agencies in panic mode. but like the IMF and World Bank and OECD and basically much all else, its all about the interests of the Few. AUSTRALIA should no longer be a member of each of these. We should prosecute credit rating agencies for IMPROPER taking of money under false pretenses. That the USA has the same credit rating as here with 110% debt to GDP, collects 75% of the tax and is ABOUT to hit peak population is EASY for even a blind person to see an issue.

China whilst not a fan of the regime, if asked the last place I would like to live it would be there, under their thumb. Love Chinese here, not a racist thing but China just passed the USA in something else. Its retail sales are MORE than the USA !! MORE.

I do wish the Australian government WOULD GROW SOME BALLS and say NO !! NO to tax thieves taking a whopping 15 billion in unpaid taxes. MAKE IT ILLEGAL with jail, terms is where they are going, but so slowly its killing me. Since Gates has parked his money in a charity, paying no tax to anyone, inviting him here and arresting him is pointless as he doesn't own any Microsoft shares anymore. As to his tax paid at 12% v the then current 39.7 tax rate is and was an issue for the USA, but a sad joke on the lower 99.99%. His actions in Australia, defrauding the nation of 200 million a year for 30 years, cannot go on.

Enough. Its a strange strange world. Not a peep about the USA massive rally in January. Bad news was met with a rally. Government shuts down, lets rally. Every second day as mindless drones listen to Twitter and Fed is backing off. Again and again a rally. Now China deal, it gets wheeled out again and again.

Its about as relevant to Australia as, well, Kim Kardashian. What is relevant to our future and that of the EU, is this tax evasion stealing 1-2% of tax UNPAID anywhere. Not to the USA, not to the nation where they sell their stuff.


For now, our market and currency and whole economy is about as important as the lower 99% in the USA. We are in fact, a new caste system, SCUMBAGS as Paul Keating would say. Irrelevant in the extreme. Our stock market and whole economy just like when the Asian Financial crisis hit, we were sold down the toilet, DESPITE … having at the time ZERO NET FOREIGN DEBT and federal government.

In some ways, I feel like an ant, caught by some monster child with his magnifying glass and I can smell something burning.

For now, with the ASX market I suspect prices a bit too low, I am cautious as ever to the issues overseas. Sure I expect some deal with China and so what, same with Korea, again so what. China and its long term reaction to having its largest tech company held to ransom remains to be seen. The Fiscal side outside the USA is in good order compared to them. Then again so much total BS going on that, well. Sorting it out are explaining it are irrelevant. Sadly 80% of people who voted for DUMP still support him. STILL …

For our side, well buying some shares yielding 6% v 2% at best and sitting on your hands is always a good thing. Each year, your miles ahead. Buying with franking credits something with an effective yield of 10% even better.

I await like most the Royal Commission report and it appears from market action that some more Bank Spanking is in order !!


Back when something changes in 6 weeks

Take care
Mark K

Davos was fun, Gates I have invited to come scuba diving with the Koch Brothers on the barrier reef ... If only !!

 

[satanoperca]

Hi Mark,
I have been trying to follow your posts, but maybe I do not have the intellectual capacity to do so, which I accept.

So can we just discuss one part of your latest post, if you can help me progress slowly, maybe I can get up to the same speed as your intellectual capacity. Smiles

"USA has its future crumbling and in many ways I thank Trump. Thank him for breaking so many promises and his twitter account with 57 million followers, 40,000 tweets from his deranged mind, He follows ? 47 people and he has liked ? & posts in 10 years !!"

I have always been fascinated with twitter, I do not participate or interact with, but your statements of figures, while I accept is correct interests me. Bare with me on this.

If Trump has 57M followers, who are they, do they believe in the crap that comes out of his mouth?
40K of tweets, is that not stalking the general population?
47 People, so he plays with a platform that he doesn't engage with, it is not about discussion but more about a soap box he can stand on. You do not need to answer that question, as I know you response, which I agree with.

So, is twitter real, is it not a commercial enterprise that benefits in faking the figures?

My rant, I do not believe the figures twitter shows of follows of twitter account holders, it is a brilliant market ploy to get people onto their platform and thus derive marketing dollars.

 

[kahuna1]

Yep,

well numbers I used, Trump is near 58 million followers, he has a total of 40,500 tweets, almost all abusive to someone, he FOLLOWS a mere 45 people and has liked, in 10 years, in millions of responses a sum total of 7.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author


AOC or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tweeting for similar 10 years, a mere 6,871 tweets, follows to be exact, 1,400 people and has given out 10,700 likes.
https://twitter.com/AOC?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

One is a soap box ... one is a way of communicating in the modern world with your followers.

I actually met Trump way back a long long time ago in NY when he was going broke for the second time and even chased small banks for funds. AOC, never met, have followed for a few years, along with Bernie and more so since her win. She ran against a fellow Democrat, one who has not lived in the area and Queens and Bronx for 30 plus years. She was given odds of 30/1 of winning even at the voting date. She won by a landslide and a 15% margin.

She uses Twitter and instigram and on occasion on instagram live when cooking is asking for how to do a pot roast. Since she won, well I looked back and her 2011 Graduation speech and a lot of media well prior to her even deciding to run and she, and the modern world is changing. SHE has not changed as far as I can see from even 2011, let alone her upbringing.

USA is in dire trouble, DIRE. Or I should say outside the top 20% is. Healthcare is a shambles and when a person needs to work 2 or 3 jobs as their hourly pay is woeful. and if they break their arm it costs $1,200 with insurance and the question is HOW much is the excess ? Without it, $1,500.

Times, well they are changing and I do think for many disillusioned in the USA with working for 80 hours at $12 an hour to make ends meet, and getting taxed and massive healthcare insurance premiums whilst the Rich in the USA just gave themselves a 1.5 trillion dollar tax gift, the last election a lot in dire straights begging for something new, voted in Trump.

I will leave another to explain just SOME of the things he has NOT done. Not covered in the media much, but things, are changing when a nobody from nowhere with NO CASH and NO FUNDING refusing corporate funding runs a campaign on 300k raised in a world record for the lowest average donation, BE AFRAID. Normally when a society becomes so corrupt as the USA is, much like Rome, or say the Marcos regime or the Shah of Iran, their is a revolution. Not possible this time and NOT one I would like for the violence it brings. Hitler was actually voted in for a reason, POL POT took over for a reason.

This time, due to the extreme imbalance and being able to buy votes in the USA, re-write what anyone says, buy think tanks and even intitutions and universities, it will take time but eventually the will of the people will prevail. A study post 1985 on 2100 or so votes done I think at Princeton saw the will of the pople and it ignored in 100% of the cases despite public support at times well over 90%. On the flip-side. corporate interest in the USA often the opposite, if the overall consensus was anything above 70% the vote ... irrespective of the public's wishes went to them.

Anyhow some of the muck in the USA this guy, a Uni professor ex decent public servant has covered .



Robert Reich is being nice. When you have for instance medical inflation at 5% then baby boomers retiring at 4 million a year, needing another 4% to be added to Medicare spending for the free over 65 medical cover and ... instead Trump actually tried cutting spending to pay for his tax cuts by 13% .... that is in effect a 22% CUT he tried to put in place. A DEATH SENTENCE ... All funnily enuf designed by Mr Munchin ex Goldman Sachs and Mr Cohn ex Goldman Sachs who paid himself 300 million prior to departing. I say funnily as both men are Jewish and whilst you may go oh ... thats anti whatever ... Martin Luther King called denial of healthcare the cruelest act one could inflict. he actually compared it to cannibalism. King of course, fondly remembered NOW, by the time they killed him was being attacked and marginalized for his views about something we here take for granted, a FREE HEALTHCARE system for all. Universal healthcare, not free, we pay for it .... but without medial care, you die slowly, painfully and in old age you spend 73% of lifetime healthcare costs. I dont know what to call Trumps and these clowns move other than the worlds largest DEATH SENTENCE. Of course the cuts did not pass, BUT ... the INCREASES to cover 4 million more, 2 million NET elderly totally reliant upon the system DID not passs and instead of a 22% CUT ... it was MERELY a 9% CUT.

Enuf ... time will sort them out, not prior to many many elderly Americans and funnily enough the vast majority are WHITE right now, about 80% v the overall racial Mix being 53% to 47%, the people desperate for help. the elderly who vote about 78% of the time verses a dismal number around 50% or less who vote, they voted and trusted a person who said, he would not cut it ... HE tried to ... he DID in effect by NOT allowing for 4 million more being added to the over 65's and needing their free Medicare.

Australia, it has little to do with, other than the inhumanity of these people and a

USA is NOT Australia and the sooner we put some distance between this mess and the antics of the rape of our tax system and being treated like an untouchable, the happier i will feel. We are AUSTRALIAN not American and we in Australia live in utopia. The people asking for higher taxes in the USA are merely asking for what we take for granted, that if you earn 10 million a year you PAY tax on it, once it goes over the top level its close to 50% TAX we pay !! In the USA, well they avoid it all.

Enuf, its not going to change our markets and our fate, if they choose to stomp on us, or anyone else, such as they have done via actions against Canada , Germany and we missed the tariff bullet by a whisker, its got nothing to do with anything other than ... going YES MASTER .... What can I bring you master.

It is time, time for a new outlook and maturity for our nation. Time to tell the bully to get stuffed and the EU is NOT happy one little bit with this nutter.

Watch the U tube. I note with dismay, the USA officially takes 3.5 billion in lobbyists funds each year, another 3.5 billion in other donations they spread around and don't advertise, so democracy is up for sale. How someone and in fact 3 of them took away seats like AOC on bugger all is ... funny. Bernie even winning in some states all 55 counties in once state, the electoral college vote in the Primary backed Hillary Not Bernie .... so its going to take some time and the wankers I dealt with in Davos were not amused with some of my answers. Let alone Bill Gates, he will not even be my friend anymore on Facebook !!

AOC a story about her, 29. LAtino, from a protectorate of the USA with 3 million people but NO representation in the USA government, called Puerto Rico, she despite her age, is no dummy or wallflower. She is POOR, was poor and has been attacked from pillar to post by the media but more so via right wing Nazi FOX NEWS ... anyhow, she has been told her clothes look expensive and so on and so forth. She responds via twitter and various media outlets. One dress she wore prior to being elected, one she was attacked AFTER being elected as it being too nice for a poor girl was given to her by some volunteer who door knocked for her and SHE got it from a Thrift store, basically Vinnies and AOC actually told the story about the bloody dress 12 months before being attacked for it looking too expensive for her supposed background. So ... she did not tell me this ... As I said I have followed her and modern media can and is a soapbox for some, lots of nutters out there ,,,, but its also a record you cant take back. Well you can if your Trump .... claiming I didn't say that ... when he is on TV having said the exact thing, people, are NOT stupid and when your literally working your arse off but getting no where, eventually things change.

Normally via revolution, this time hopefully without the violence. Time is up for the 1%, time sadly is also up for the USA. I do hope the EU and a block of nations steps into the void as leaders. EU of course has its own issues and getting back 2% of GDP stolen via Apple and others is a start.


Enjoy
Mark K

Robert Bernard Reich is an American political commentator, professor, and author. He served in the administrations of Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. He was Secretary of Labor from 1993 to 1997. He was a member of President-elect Barack Obama's economic transition advisory board.

 

[kahuna1]

Oh well.

that was a short silence ... firstly, Iron Ore keeps being bid up, so even FMG gets dragged along.

Royal commission was, well. a joke. Expecting something, given the extreme weakness in banks of late, out come the report with, NOTHING. So whilst cautious into it, and kicking myself at the peaks today for being so cautious, I just couldn't help myself and gave what I had back. When Westpac is up over 10% off its lows and into mid range, in a single day or 36 hours, its time to pause. Not far behind for ANZ.

Whist nothing directly against banks, ASIC has been given a very clear mandate to prosecute, not dilly dally around. THe report, written clearly by a bloody lawyer was, sadly silly. One hand, to get a financial planner jump through more hoops when they have already what is a masters in Accounting is silly. Doing it to other advisors, well whilst welcome. and overdue, the delay and allowed time is on one hand silly. Other side, is that if you want advice, NOW, there is not going to be any decent advice around and in this making the tasks for awful performing bigger funds who are shocking to keep doing thier rubbish.

Mortgage brokers, bloody hell, same thing, makes it easier for banks in the end taking them out and trailing commissions to be replaced with what. Essentially virtually every mortgage broker, share broker and yep, there are some decent ones, they a ll are thinking about becoming truck drivers. Not really a good thing for anyone. New rules on rural loans, will I suspect either add to the cost of them massively or dry up whats available. Again not a great thing.

In the meantime, I suspect a very dark cloud over the banks despite a get out of jail free for now. The pressure is ON and will I suspect make them all blink when eventually one of the many things goes to court, its going to cost a lot more than ever before in fines. Again, not obvious but when you set up layers and layers of new bureaucracies and new rules on top of a mountain of new paperwork already needed, its NOT a good thing. Its a bad thing.

Having at various times held most of the licenses and holding the correct qualifications and so on, the amount of paperwork doubled in the last 5 years for someone trying to advise you on investing or super. Its now about to double again. What sadly was starting to emerge prior to this mish mash, was investors given advice turning around and making their advisors lives hell even when best advice was given. Sometimes stocks actualyl go DOWN.

In the end, the old advice that will be given wil lbe general advice, non specific advice and for someone not well versed in portfolios or diversification of risk and long term goals, a negative outcome is virtually assured whilst getting rid of, YES the crooks ... about 10% of them. Not a thing done about shitty super funds that are merged into others and cover the woeful performance of the fund manager. Similar on the excessive fees they charge verses very poor performance. I have npo issue paying 2% if the fund outperforms the market by 4%. In effect, 1% of it is costs and the other 1%, it about 20% of the NET 5% ,,, minus 1% so 4% out performance.

If they linked the fees to performance verses a benchmark, well, that would have been amusing.
What actually did amaze me about the Royal Commission is whilst ALlianz got a well deserved smack, and legal nightmare, their actions in Workers Compensation are far far worse than any case they heard. Then again. Workers Comp is state run ....

The other big missing thing, being an old FX boy is FX !! The rates the banks get away with today verses 20 years ago are TRIPLE the spread. Instead of the AUD being at 0.7220 and being able to buy USA at say 0.7170 or LESS than 1% BELOW the actual spot rate, todays ripoff rate for CBA ? Bugger me ... well RBA did not act so AUD was 0.7230 most of the day, its now 0.7280. Using the first at worst, one would EXPECT to any get zapped 1% so 0.7210 at worst !! OR this mornings rate so 0.7150.

Well ... hello MR RIPOFF CBA .... you suck, truly suck as does the dummy Royal commissioner.

https://www.commbank.com.au/personal/international/foreign-exchange-rates.html

It will change as time goes by ....
Here is a live FX rate link ...
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates

Todays Spot this morning at 0.7220 was met with CBA spot selling rate for USD ... 0.6947.

So you loose ... 0.0273 or 3.78% !!

What wankers these are, lets see what ANZ give us ? 0.6964 ... you MAKE ME SICK .... NAB 0.6932

ARE THESE GREEDY PRICKS SERIOUS ? Of course they are, a low estiamte and an educated one, its collusion upon collusion between them and a MASSIVE PROFIT centre that sees a minimum of 125 million NET on the sale side and another 40 million crossing a 5% SPREAD when people try and sell foreign currnecy. SO one side, they CHARGE to get a card, or USA notes, SO NO real big cost. YES they may have to have the notes on HAND, but when your being given 30% of what you SELL at 5% HIGHER in fact selling notes is 0.7577 at CBA a 8.6% SPREAD ....

So between the big 4 they make 3.8% on 125 million a day and then lets day 8% on 40 million when people sadly have to do the opposite. Wow, 3.2 million plus 4.75 so lets be 8 million a day, say 2335 days a year, a mere 1.88 billion and its ALL JAM MONEY. to get notes last time I was charged to add insult to injury $16- MORE ....

How the hell, this was missed, let alone the MONEY GOUGER rates on credit cards which most hover at 20% as they were when rates were 8% NOT 1.5%.

The end result should be a removal of the FX licenses of the Banks !! To get a decent rate, even on $10,000 is very hard, once you get to $100,000- you get one closer to reality. One might go, well the average is not a lot that is exchanged, and 3.8% on $1,000- is a mere $38-, Just multiply it many times over and the average exchanged is closer to the $2,000 mark.

Oh well, whinge for the day. For now, banks were on fire, Suspect, as time goes on and some more stuff added to WHAT is new, the shine will soon slow down. One hand, great dividends and hence why I owned them, but, vulnerable in the extreme due to gouging on credit cards and exchange rates and various other high margin products.

Not about to chase this one higher, the banks, and will let the dust settle with Donald and his speech tonight which, is a WHO CARES .... and suspect some behavior that IS NOT NORMAL during it. Usually its clapp clap clap and being that old, I remember the first time they did standing ovations, this time maybe the Democrats kneel !! I was thinking maybe they walked out when he gasbags on the state of the Union. NO JUST KNEEL .... in protest, over his rubbish.

Things are getting more polarized over there every day.

Take care
Mark

 

[satanoperca]

Hi K,
Who uses the banks to transfer money, would have to have rocks in ya head, as you have mentioned, there spread is b---lshit in the digital age.

I transfer money twice monthly to 2 different countries, I generally pay a 1% spread which is acceptable and $15 processing free regardless of the amount (think the bank charges $35)

 

[kahuna1]

Hi Satanoperca ... or Satans perch ...

Well, sadly,

A lot of people do. Of course there are much much better avenues to get notes and even close to the spot rate. I accept this, sadly most who use credit cards, or go to the bank, and expect a fair deal get buggered.

I note today, as expected the banks a bit off the boil. I do think we are facing a very long road of litigation v the banks. Almost a total destruction of mortgage brokers, similar with investment advisors and even highly qualified financial planners. The latter have an undergrad and post grad degree !!

I still think banks are a buy, especially in the wake of the RBA head speaking for the first time in 21 years in Sydney. Macro economic wise, we are slowing a bit along with China and the rest of the world. As such, rates on hold for some time.

I hope for some more retracement for the banks and just buy them back at 2,3,4% lower levels irrespective of even a worst case scenario of multiple court cases, the bottom line will not be impacted too much.

State of the Union highlighted the extreme polarization of the USA. We have over the next few weeks so much noise going on, that, I will go deaf if I listen. We have Korean madman meeting late Feb, China trade deal, which really means bugger all to anyone, then we have USA unlikely passing the bill to build a wall. Then when one thinks its all over, in March, the debt ceiling needs to be raised as the USA hits 22 trillion. I suspect a lot of fights.

State of the Union a disgrace, seriously a disgrace to minorities and wheeling out people who one COULD only stand and applaud was, what it was. Citing late term abortions, illegal in all states UNLESS the baby is either very unlikely to live or threatens the mother are a mere 1,200 out of 700,000 abortions. On and on it went, USA and D DAY ... whilst greatly appreciate their efforts and sacrifice, it was a delusional rewrite of history where USA on D-Day was 46% of the total forces and did not join the war till post Pearl Harbor. Another dig at EU and NATO and spending 100 billion more, between 28 nations with a GDP of 21 trillion is NOT EVEN THE INFLATION RATE .... its HALF of ONE percent or 0.5% !!

I was reminded More of a Hitler rally than anything else. USA USA rah rah rah .... these billionaires are so seriously delusional that it astounds me. Announcing 500 million to beat USA childhood cancer, whilst anything is GOOD .... when your healthcare is 3 times the cost of ours, and your 15 times the size, lets adjust the number ..... it was 11.11 Million or BUGGER ALL ....

Nope all eaten up by the Republicans and whilst, in the meantime, Rome crumbles.

Sorry, but things ARE changing and I was proud to see the women in WHITE the Democrat Women, its going to take some time to undo what is a seriously delusional state of affairs.

have fun
Mark K

 

[satanoperca]

The latter have an undergrad and post grad degree !!

I wonder what % of people who ask for advice for investment of x10 years earnings, average house in Melbourne and Sydney if the FA/broker has any qualifications other than a wheaties pack. I suspect sweet f---k all.

As for the USA, all great societies fail at some time, as history has shown.

 

[kahuna1]

Hmm ..

well a good financial planner, a good investment in a good fund ... and returns of a mere 2% MORE than the average and you will have 100% more in retirement. Most, if not 90% of people fail to do anything till they are say 55 or 60 and by then, altering the outcome is often impossible. some of the messes I have seen and expectations of a 55 year old with a mere 75k in super thinking they can retire age 65 at 50 k a year are sad.

The BEST ... person to go to is a financial planner at say age 35 and to periodically say every 2 years, go and spend a few hours revisiting your plan. Easier said than done. Also the tendency is for people to panic when they SHOULD BE BUYING .... I don't mean some crappy announcement comes out and you buy, RUN ... but when a good stock falls out of favor, for little or no reason, its time to buy. Our market of late and for the last 10 years has been besieged by the government basically taking more and more from banks, more and more from others and making rules that make things difficult. That said, the opposite also occurs. When a stock goes to stupid levels, its time to trim or take the money. This of course ina super environment but also if you have it for over 12 months. Selling say banks at their previous highs of $31-32 ... or TLS which astoundingly went to over $6- same thing ....

Hardest of all, is to BUY into a doom and gloom market. BUY quality, NO specs, ones with a long long history and BUY slowly expecting something idiotic to occur and panic to go further.

All of this goes against logic.

As to the USA, yep empires fall and rise, China with more retail sales than the USA is not a suitable leader, India soon to pass the USA in GDP terms, say in 15 years, same thing. Whilst USA has been good, its actions via the theft of tax and oligarchy to overseas and its foreign policy has as Martin Luther King pointed out over 50 years ago, a lot to answer for.

Interesting times, when the USA can and does not support the lower 80% , denies basic healthcare and even a decent wage, times will change and swing likely over time to something close to Sweden and Norway. It will take time and whilst I am amused by France getting 600 million in back taxes from one of the tech monsters, its less than 10% of what has been avoided in the past 10 years.

With 30% of GDP collected and healthcare spending is 20% of GDP and a mere 70% effectively covered, with the lower 30% having either NONE or cover that is worthless and requires co-payments of insane amounts from the poor, the motivation is there for change. We have NO idea, none of how far they have shredded what USA was even in 1980.

Oh well, time will sort it out, but too late for 80 million of the 100 million baby boomers.

Cheers

Mark K

 

[kahuna1]

End of thread on my part, thanks for your thoughts.

Cheers

 

[kahuna1]

Howdy.

Was going to give up .... worked a few things out, about the internet ....

Will be posting a few things now and again on MACRO side and things that make markets overall move ...

This from another thread ... on Leverage ... it contains a view about USA market and its likely to keep going up ... FOR NOW ... say 3,150 on the S+P 500 ... but has issues. ...


Anyhow

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Leverage is a tool.

One that is akin to using a bulldozer in a confined space. An expert can do this, a not so expert person will destroy everything. As a rule, margin is to be used even for very experienced well disciplined traders or investors at less than say 50% margin overall. Even at that level, holding 200% of shares verses equity, should be ONLY short term and exceptional circumstances if you want to survive longer term.

A leverage for a portfolio at say 25% MORE or 125% or even 150% gives you a better chance and playing this off against returns IS a good thing. As happens, periodically markets correct and being invested at 200% at the wrong time, will occur if one is NOT adverse to leverage at extremes. NOT just our market extremes but WORLD market extremes. Australian equities are irrelevant in driving long term direction of global markets. USA is approaching 3 times, or 300% of the GFC lows, DOUBLE the highs of the PRE GFC period. DOUBLE. If we applied this to our market, ignoring other things, we should be at an ASX 200 of say 9,500 to 13,000- so lets say 11,000 verses 6,300. We have and WILL and do under-perform the USA as does the rest of the world, for some very good reasons.

The things that MAKE markets and equities MOVE are quite simple on the MACRO side. Interest rates, on the fiscal side and goverment spending and taxes on the other. USA has decided NOT to pay for its elderly, pay for pensions, pay for healthcare and as such its now, 10 years after the GFC in a supposed recovery, running a deficit to GDP in spending of 4% of GDP. It is in itself on of the largest deficits ever run in the past 150 years outside of the GFC or say WW2. It is ignoring its debt level, the world is ignoring its debt level and when a taxpayer has $200,000- per tax payer DEBT ... and it does need to be serviced and the lower 80% of taxpayers have an income of a mere $35,000- PRE tax and $31,000- POST tax and social security, owing $200,000- and even servicing at 2% a $200,000- debt or $4,000- is being ignored FOR NOW.

Perspective, and a very long term one is needed for any portfolio. We In Australia seem to have an idiotic fiscal concept that a BUDGET SURPLUS is needed. On one hand EU and Australia as life itself went from 72 years in 1980 tp close to 84 years so too did the RISING cost of living medically and pension wise and TAX verses GDP went UP by 2% or sso. It ROSE ... to cover pensions and super and so too medical care. USA which operates on what is good for the 1% it FELL ... and FELL sharply. It went from 35% PLUS of GDP to 30%. The awful, sickening impact of this is NOT being as per normal fuller reported, but what is, is a disgrace and life expectancy instead of as it was in 1980 being close to number one, is NOW officially 78.6 years but clearly, easily 75 at best. Of course the top 1% even 20% can afford the worlds most expensive healthcare, bugger the rest and one side lives to 90 or so and the other is fast approaching 65 years.

Tax in the USA has fallen from 35% even 36% of GDP to 30%. Australian and EU and most others its risen by 2% of GDP and here,including super as one must its at 38% of GDP and EU around 40% of GDP.

Margin and leverage, is RELEVANT to the very big long term picture. USA is here also due to its actions into the GFC and it DOUBLED its debt in dollar terms, clearly has no intention to repay it, let alone service it and if one party stays in will cut what was free medical care to over65;s which is NOW not free and costs 20k per year for over 65's even further. Quite a sick display of human greed verses the needs of the many.

It will, obviously change at some stage and USA will ... get universal free or low cost healthcare. Either 2020 or 2024 will start the ball rolling. Either that, or outright revolt as even the most red blooded GOP party person crosses the lines even now for better healthcare. The impacts it will have on the healthcare industry in the USA where they see fit to charge 3,4,5 times the cost and the similar impact on healthcare provider sand insurers where a mere hospital bed costs 500% the EU average is obvious.

Other factor as to WHY in the USA ... is up here is two fold. One is it had interest rates at ZERO for a very long time. Every law about finance and lending below inflation, out the window. EU is following and still there, but it was LATE to the game for its bonds and endured, despite a much better 40% of GDP int axes, it was paying 2-3% MORE for debt verses a nation which collected bugger all tax.

Interest rates at zero ... dividends at 3% or 4% ... is a massive stimulus.

Second factor is tax theft ... evasion, avoidance and Australia, we clearly loose 30 billion easily seen in tax theft. We have laws, ignored, we are changing them and will do so ... the money FLOWS ... on the main to the USA. Gelncore os Swiss and one of the biggest evaders, but then we have oil companies, USA based, and the tech group where Microsoft with 3.6 billion sales books 3 billion via Bermuda and misses 10% GST let alone a profit margin over 25% and pays virtually no income tax.

Again big things, relevant if your going leveraged that MUST and WILL change mid term in say 5-10 years.

Lastly and perspective again, ignoring madness ... for 100 years the USA equity market traded in the 40% of GDP region. YES 40% of GDP .... two world wars, a few minor ones, good times and bad, but 40% of GDP. It NOW approaches as it did in 2000 .... a 125% of GDP level and in 2008 or late 200 that WAS the reality ... 125% of GDP until the goverment stepped in and prevented a fall in GDP of 1930-33 size.

USA equities are trading close to 300% OF The long term averages. WE are NOT ... but still inflated a fair bit as is the rest of the world.

If your going to use margin ... think about it !!

Perspective ... and very long term is needed in times of madness.

USA is LIKELY to go higher, short term, despite the long term perspective and its just a cautionary tale. Reason being is again linked to MACRO side and USA just cut its taxes and ignored its 99.99% of people and tax collected went from 17.5% on profits for companies to 7.5% ... despite the headline tax being now 21% verses 35%, GREECE had woeful tax collection and massive avoidance, USA makes it look like a novice. The 21% company tax rate is incompatible with HUMAN life, and whilst 35% headline rate was irrelevant when only HALF that was being collected on profits, instead of the loopholes being closed .... and the fall in collections being not a lot, it IS NOT the case.

Short term, USA I would like it to kiss say 3,150 on the S+P 500 in its madness. So that's still some ways away. But, eventually a more fair healthcare system will evolve, some USA sector are DOOMED profit wise when this occurs. But till then .... the top end dictates.

Buffet and his situation, he made or outperformed PRE 2000 via a good fundamental analysis of values of stocks. These stocks were valued at times close to 25% of GDP .... verses here at say 120% pf GDP one is 5 times CHEAPER than the other. His money I might also add is made up via 75% of it, his wealth, by NOT PAYING TAX. The companies he has his main investments in ? The largest tax evaders such as APPLE and Goldmans. Of course it legal in the USA, not really what they do raping the rest of the world and paying no tax .... but such is life.

This like most things cannot go on. Free trade does not mean rape the tax system of other nations and these are private companies .... greedy ones who need a few CEO's to spend time in jail.

Leverage here ? Well ... I have an interesting background and long term perspective. I would of course urge extreme caution. It would as experience tells me be wasted breath. Investing and trading is where someone makes a profit on a stock, or even a loss and more likely a loss, and they become an expert.

Back into my hole .... just be cautious, or think about perspective. Less than 50% .... say 150% ... I could live with ... 200% borrowing half ? Risky and oh and DIVERSIFY ..... or perish. Buffet himself gets it VERY VERY wrong despite 60 years plus in the industry. His pre GFC buys were trashed to the tune of a zillion or so total loss .... TOTAL loss.

Not a fan of the person ... his act and support of the system which has seen the loss of life is, what it is.

 

[kahuna1]

Some thoughts on investing and trading from another thread,

Just will put it here.
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Some quick thoughts on trading or investing, two different things but similar rules.

Prior to psychology, trading and even investing some things are needed. One does NOT self treat a brain tumor, or a tooth cavity. Trading is an art.

Many different ways to trade. Different styles, objectives and so on. As a person who started as a trainee dealer in 1983, some things change, and others, are the same.

Without an edge, an advantage OVER the market, trading for a living or investing is NOT something, in my opinion that most should do. Whether that edge be via technical side, charts ... or Fundamental side, via valuation, or by a larger MACRO side, bottom down look at the whole market, WITHOUT an edge, it makes life and investing likely a loss.

Stick to what you KNOW. Not what you think you KNOW, WHAT YOU KNOW and understand. Not some idiotic conspiracy theory or view about where Uranium is going to $200- a lb next week.

Admit defeat EARLY and without remorse. Taking a loss, if necessary, but learning why you were wrong if necessary. NO REVENGE trading !!

Diversify, and this idiotic view by Buffet shared of late NOT to diversify, is, well, just stupid. HE CAN ... buy the whole company and prefers to do so. YOU CANT, and as such, without the resources or experience to see the whole picture, unable to CONTROL the company eventually, without diversification in shares to some extent and putting all your eggs in one, or two or three baskets, the likely hood of a massive draw-down are MASSIVE. Companies don't tell the truth quite often, the CEO is often NOT there for shareholders but themselves, and his job either way, honest companies alike, the CEO will and DOES present a best case 90% of the time so it may be in serious trouble and you .... YOU will be the last to know.

Too much Diversification, is IDIOTIC. There is a happy medium between the two and buying an index hugging fund where your buying all the stocks including the DOGS ... ones on fire and unlikely ever to be the value the share is right NOW, is again, after fee;s likely and always going to leave you BEHIND the overall market. IF it were shares, 12-20 is enough in my view to take a hit on the chin where one, or two hit a loss of 25% and you take it, even prior to NEWS coming out. That loss is 25% RELATIVE to the index. You may be the last to know the company has massive issues and if a share moves in the opposite direction to the index overall, your bloody wrong. If they admit their are fleas, EXIT because their is likely fleas and ticks.

If you HAVE an edge, and your stupid NOT to ... STICK TO IT LIKE GLUE. Why the hell would you give UP an edge you have over the overall market ? Most don't have an edge, most when they do, give it up, doing stupid things, buying into peaks and doubling up as it STARTS to fall as opposed to buying into TERROR. BUY into END OF THE WORLD .... sell into Tulip season.

Stop loss, stop loss and stop loss.

I could go on, but the psychological side, most fail at and temperament is key. Greed and FEAR are battles one wages, so too ego and stupidity.

Have fun

Mark K

 

[kahuna1]

Light reading ...

I find these better sources and I suppose the top few ... I tend to read.

News ... research ... and FREE ...

https://www.reuters.com/theWire

Reuters better than most ..

https://abnormalreturns.com/

the weekly most read often has GEMS ....
NOT the daily its more rubbish. The weekly out Sundays gets rid of idiotic at times daily links.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
The morning links often good contents from all sources

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/
Real Markets ... a LOT of sources ... it sifts, does not contain too much rubbish and lots of sources.

Yep mainly USA ... but .. our market is driven via them.

Of course the Fin Review here ... Wall st journal ... SMH and Australian and then you have a decent reading list. Australian ones via APP and phone saves buying 3 kg of paper a day.

Enjoy

 

[PZ99]

Australian share market climbs to 12-year high
By business reporters David Chau and David Taylor


The Australian share market has climbed to its highest level in almost 12 years, since before the global financial crisis.

Morning gains were boosted by worse-than-expected inflation figures, which raised the likelihood that the Reserve Bank may announce an interest cut in the next few months.

The consumer price index was flat during the March quarter and up 1.3 per cent over the past year.

This also lowered the Australian dollar by almost a per cent to 70.35 US cents by 12:15pm, which boosted export-exposed companies on the ASX.

The local market's strength also follows an exuberant lead from Wall Street — which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at record levels on Tuesday (local time) due to stronger-than-expected corporate earnings from major US companies.

At 11:55am (AEST), Australia's benchmark index, the ASX 200, had jumped 1.1 per cent to 6,389.

The broader All Ordinaries index rose by a similar level to 6,477 points.

These indices have not traded at such levels since July 2007 and November 2007 respectively.

Most sectors are pushing higher, with health care and technology among the best performers, up 2.4 per cent each.

The tech sector has been boosted by WiseTech Global (+4.7pc), Afterpay (+3.7pc) and Appen (+3.2pc).

On the flipside, materials (-0.7pc) is the weakest sector thanks in large part to a sharp drop in gold miners New Hope Corporation (-3.5pc), Syrah Resources (-2.1pc), Independence Group (-2.5pc) and Western Areas (-2.1pc).

The big miners also sustained losses, including Fortescue Metals (-1.3pc).

BHP and Rio Tinto had earlier fallen sharply, but have since trimmed their losses to 0.1 and 0.2 per cent respectively.

Market slide is inevitable
However, investment titans have warned that this may be as good as it gets, and are already preparing for what they see as the inevitable downside.

"We are certainly in the late stage of the longest cyclical expansion that we've seen in recent memory," BlackRock managing director and head of sustainable investing Brian Deese said.

"I think we're seeing a number of predictable late-stage dynamics.

"The question that everyone's trying to grapple with is 'at what point, and in what context, will we see this expansion begin to slow down?'"

Mr Deese, who is based in the United States, told the ABC's PM program that BlackRock is positioning itself "defensively" — which is market speak for building a kind of investment fort.

"The kinds of things that people need to be thinking about at this point in the business cycle is how to build defensive elements into your portfolio," he said.

Mr Deese worked in the White House, under former President Barack Obama, as a senior advisor for climate and energy policy, helping to negotiate the Paris Climate Agreement.

He is convinced the safest way for longer-term investors, such as those with superannuation, to preserve the wealth they have built up over the past decade is to park money in low-carbon industries.

He describes the positive returns investment firms are already receiving from their so-called green investments as a "mega-trend".

"It is going to play out and have a big impact across industries over the next three, five, seven, 10 years.

"And so you want to have a view on the pace and the impact of the global transition to a low-carbon economy, and you want to be thinking about how to integrate those insights into your portfolio."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-24/asx-australian-share-market-12-year-high/11042236

 

[kahuna1]

From MFG thread ...

a View of the USA side of things ...

And there she blows ...

S+P 500 up near all time highs ... $42.50

MFG and funds under management are of course a function of the S+P on the main as thats where most of it lies.

Suspect still some legs on the S+P even from here ... in the USA so ... to 3,125 or so ... another 8% so $47- ? ... who knows.

I might add ... when in early 2016 was at 1,800 or so ... MFg had 40 billion under management and now 160% of that its 70 billion under management and YEP ... some added, but on the main a function of the underlying market.

Oh and MFG was $28- toppish I thought then relative to the world outside, now at 150% of that ... just like the INDEX ... yep again ... stretching.

Markets at times go too far and of course cutting tax in the USA to 21% verses 35% for companies and ignoring the people and healthcare and pensions ... is what it is. A very big driver ... and tax collected via USA corporations where the tax loopholes were supposedly closed ... went from 17.6% of profits about 50% of the tax rate ... to 7.3% NOW.

So its at 33% the actual tax rate verses 50% pre Trump ... and well ... not providing healthcare is never a wise option for any Society. Not longer term. Cycles change and eventually universal healthcare in the USA is coming ... and the drivers that saw the USA ignore its poor and coloured, well over 50% and drove its stocks to outperform all others ... will change.

Such is the cycle of life and markets. It goes to extremes.

What drives markets ... is pretty simple ... interest rates, goverment fiscal side and that CAN be deficit spending which USA is spending close to 5% of GDP in deficit even NOW in 2019 ...

Hence the valuation ... overall at 1929 and 200 levels and ... if one took out the support given to the USA banking side post say MErrill and others loosing all their capaital, at 125% of GDP ....

I wish them luck overall.

But here at 2,940- and for some time, the target USA side has been 3,000 and in fact 3,125 for ME ... despite being a cat on a hot tin roof for many reasons. History repeats itself.

Our market today on low CPI numbers took off. As it did yesterday playing catch up to the USA and its rise to some extent.

Whilst not really expecting too much in terms of a lowering of rates here, and caution and ammo in the RBA's tool kit I suspect may give them pause lowering, we clearly are in a low inflation environment and for some time.

Conversely to the USA we are about to run a surplus ... Fiscal side and idiotic new taxes to punish the stock market likely to emerge post election. WHY are we balancing our budget when GDP is say 2.5%and inlfation at 1.5 % and our debt, NET debt is at 33% of say USA and most EU nations ?

Can we strangle the cat any more ? Both Liberals and Labor seem to think we get a reward for it.
We can still run a deficit of say 2% and total GDP in dollar terms rises by 2.5% growth plus 1.5% inflation and STILL the DEBT to GDP ratio will fall by 2% !!!

USA is running full tilt as stimulus ... ignoring a $200,000 debt per tax payer, and the median of the lower 80% is $32,500 NET income, so paying even 2% interest the money ... well cannot be taken from them.

Quite different here, different type of LA LA ...

For now, hoping for that last leg up ... above 3,000 in the S+P 500, MY target around 3,125 .... on the S+P and its irresistible to them, a target at 3,000 they can spank and sing USA USA USA ...

Sadly, when your NOW collecting 7% of profits in tax v 17.6% ... a mere 2 years ago .... and close to 30% pre 2000 .... so now the healthcare of the USA outside the top 20% is ... I don't care.

They will, and time takes care of these things with a lesson in history, not that its ever learnt.

Historical Amnesia rules the day as we approach 125% of GDP valuation of USA stock markets. It was a very good idea ... adjusting for 2007 REAL value before the USA fed purchased 4 trillion in swamp paper ... it was a good idea in 2000 ... and even a better idea back in 1929.

USA USA USA ... rah rah rah