Too much like 1929

[Uncle Festivus]

And that is the point. We have yet to go through the exponential phase, so medium term (1 to 3 years) I am a bull, long term I am a bear.

Just curious, why do we have to have an exponential phase? Is this the main reason you are bullish?

Hey Chops, cheer up mate, try not to be so pessimistic

Here are a couple of exponentials for starters.

 

[constable]

"anyone who bought stocks in mid 1929 and held onto them saw most of his adult life pass by before getting back to even"
Richard M Salsman.
Wow...now can anyone seriously argue that this is going to happen again?
Lots of easy money yep sure there is .... overvalued stocks not even close to what happened in 1929 .(except u stocks )

 

[constable]

Just curious, why do we have to have an exponential phase? Is this the main reason you are bullish?

Hey Chops, cheer up mate, try not to be so pessimistic

Here are a couple of exponentials for starters.

I'd be interested in the difference in pop size over that 50 years uncle!

 

[wayneL]

FYI

The above Grantham - Ritholtz discussion on BubbleVision.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=275933010

 

[Kimosabi]

hello,

another solid performance on stocks this week. those who say it is flat or crashing are absolutely dreaming, buy quality stocks.

went to ASX on Monday, could not believe the number of people interested

gee another week gone, appears nothing changed in the stock market

got anymore stories for the weekend

is it buying time yet, got the piggy bank ready

thankyou

kimborobosabibots

 

[Uncle Festivus]

This is a bit off centre but could it be that we are already experiencing inflation, but in a different form? The effect of inflation is that costs rise,
...well property has risen
commodities have risen
yet due to China, manufactured goods have not.
Could it be that the central banks defination of inflation is too narrow and we are in the first stage of a massive inflation rise???

New paradigm stuff?

Real inflation, the monetary type, is largely invisible to the average persons daily life, who all the while have the illusion that they are getting wealthier.

"Despite its recent eclipse of 13,000 the Dow now buys 30% fewer euros than it did then back in 2000 when it was priced at approximately 11,500. It also buys 35% fewer gallons of milk, 40% fewer bushels of corn or wheat, 65% fewer ounces of silver, 70% fewer barrels of oil, 80% fewer pounds of copper, and 90% fewer pounds of uranium. Try figuring what the Dow will buy in terms of other necessities, such as housing, insurance, college tuition or hospitalization. Any way you measure it, the Dow is worth far less today then it was in January of 2000."

 

[wayneL]

Real inflation, the monetary type, is largely invisible to the average persons daily life, who all the while have the illusion that they are getting wealthier.

"Despite its recent eclipse of 13,000 the Dow now buys 30% fewer euros than it did then back in 2000 when it was priced at approximately 11,500. It also buys 35% fewer gallons of milk, 40% fewer bushels of corn or wheat, 65% fewer ounces of silver, 70% fewer barrels of oil, 80% fewer pounds of copper, and 90% fewer pounds of uranium. Try figuring what the Dow will buy in terms of other necessities, such as housing, insurance, college tuition or hospitalization. Any way you measure it, the Dow is worth far less today then it was in January of 2000."

Also, bear in mind that the "Dow" is weighted by Price, whereas other indices are weighted by capitalization.

Price is not a very good ay to weight an indice and is a relic of the days before calculators even.

The more appropriately weight indices such as SP500 and Naz, are not yet at new highs.

The "record" highs of the Dow are essentially meaningless. Have a look at the 30 constituent charts to illustrate this point.

 

[Knobby22]

Just curious, why do we have to have an exponential phase? Is this the main reason you are bullish?

Those curves aren't adjusted.

Look at 1929, 1987 etc. there is a giant exponential rise in the stock market before the crash. Everyone is making so much money that they are scared to get out. hasn't happened yet. Stock prices do not look very over valued at present.

 

[Lucky]

I think its funny that many of the uber bears have bullish names like Lucky, Uncle Festivas and Out Too Soon.

There used to be a band called Fun Boy 3. The most miserable band ever.

Hey knooby what makes you think I'm an uber-bear. I'm no more a uber-bear than you're a uber-bull(actually I have no idea where you stand on the market, i've not read any of your posts before so i can't make that judgment call). I've just posted an article that I thought would make for interesting discussion. I know there's many bears/bulls on the board, but I think anyone who trades the market just does that, regardless of bearish/bullish sentiments and opinions written up and reported in articles. I've seen some crazy calls in the last couple of months people that have bet the house thinking the markets are going to crash only to be sorely disappointed and nursing serious wounds to their wealth. I've know a couple of guys who have all but wiped themselves out in recent months, adamant that they're on the right side of the trade and that their way of thinking is correct and so wanting to be right. Brutal, but that's the market for you. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the overwhelming trend has been up.

If what is outlined in this articles pans out, what difference will this make to you? Will it make any difference to you? A good trader with a good system will make money in rising and falling markets it won't make any difference to them what is reported or what articles are published/written.

If it makes you happy i'll see if i can find an article for the bulls - bring some optimism and po,sitivity to the forum

A little O.T, but lets see - real estate. I believe RE seems to be a pretty interesting topic that gets quite a passionate debate here on the forums. House prices are still going bananas here in Melbourne record prices being set in a few surrounding suburbs. A 2 bed terrace in Northcote was sold for a record $707k (can't seem to find the link) on the weekend. The house next door to my sisters place in St.Kilda East went for $808k - a 3/4 bedroom weatherboard house in need of renovation. it's going very well for some folk.

best

 

[alankew]

Apologies for asking what may be a silly question but been out all day and come back to find most of my stocks down,any particular reason.Thanks in advance

 

[bean]

1929 and 1987 crashes occured in October
If this one crashes on say the 8th May
That would be different

 

[chicken]

1929 and 1987 crashes occured in October
If this one crashes on say the 8th May
That would be different

You are all talking about crashes....like 1929...or 1987....the 1987 was manipulated by the Germans and the USA...the 1929 ...those were different times than now...China will become the powerhouse of the future..with its 1.4billion population...the USA are the largest debtor in the world...yes these are funny times again....but a total collaps???? I would say in 30years time but at present a market correction..PERHAPS...but as long as China..and India aregrowing as they do and needing rawmaterials to supply their goods to the world...and the world consumes the crashes will be relatively light and business carries on....as long asthe wheels of commerce are turning...I say what crashes...just a small correction...

 

[wayneL]

http://esl.about.com/od/englishgrammar/a/a_punctuation.htm

 

[constable]

And now its an english lesson for the bird!

 

[Knobby22]

Hey knooby what makes you think I'm an uber-bear. I'm no more a uber-bear than you're a uber-bull(actually I have no idea where you stand on the market, i've not read any of your posts before so i can't make that judgment call).

A little O.T, but lets see - real estate. I believe RE seems to be a pretty interesting topic that gets quite a passionate debate here on the forums. House prices are still going bananas here in Melbourne record prices being set in a few surrounding suburbs. A 2 bed terrace in Northcote was sold for a record $707k (can't seem to find the link) on the weekend. The house next door to my sisters place in St.Kilda East went for $808k - a 3/4 bedroom weatherboard house in need of renovation. it's going very well for some folk.

best

Yea, sorry for the bear judgement, it was the article. You can't blame me for making the assumption.
And you are right about property in Melbourne. It is nuts and we will be catching up to Sydney if we are not careful.

 

[Knobby22]

Real inflation, the monetary type, is largely invisible to the average persons daily life, who all the while have the illusion that they are getting wealthier.

"Despite its recent eclipse of 13,000 the Dow now buys 30% fewer euros than it did then back in 2000 when it was priced at approximately 11,500. It also buys 35% fewer gallons of milk, 40% fewer bushels of corn or wheat, 65% fewer ounces of silver, 70% fewer barrels of oil, 80% fewer pounds of copper, and 90% fewer pounds of uranium. Try figuring what the Dow will buy in terms of other necessities, such as housing, insurance, college tuition or hospitalization. Any way you measure it, the Dow is worth far less today then it was in January of 2000."

Interesting, they are in effect experiencing massive inflation though it does not show officially. But our currency is going up so we should be getting deflation, however the money we have made is being used to fuel the housing boom.

 

[Lucky]

Yea, sorry for the bear judgement, it was the article. You can't blame me for making the assumption.
And you are right about property in Melbourne. It is nuts and we will be catching up to Sydney if we are not careful.

Hey no worries. It's a fair call. The title says it all really, it's pretty easy to read, " Too much like 1929" and make a call on that. When I hear or read 1929 the things that immediately come to mind are crashes and the great depression(what was so great about it anyway ), besides the model-t, the speakeasy, the charleston and jazz :

Funny you mention catching up to Sydney RE prices, we're probably not too far off it, but what's really funny is that median RE prices here in Melbourne, we're only ranked 5th in Oz. Median RE prices are higher in Perth, Canberra and Darwin - Melbourne we've got some work to do!

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

Hey Uncle Fest

The fact that the US dollar dropping is a good thing for the US.

As there Dollar decreases so does the value of all the US cash reserves of every country in the world that uses them to buy oil which is really only traded in US dollars.

In effect the effect of A failing US dollar , increasing oil prices and inflation in America is pretty much a world tax for America. The only way i can see the American economy collapsing is if the US dollar loses its dominance as the world currency for buying Oil.

Hence Iran and the Euro Boarse and why George Bush has gone to Iraq to ensure that saddam didn't do the same (which he was planning before the invasion)

 

[explod]

With markets everywhere looking like they may fall off the cliff I felt the 1929 thread well worth a revisit at this time as it contains a great deal of backgound that may be beneficial to our newer members.


Cheers explod

 

[kerosam]

i think the world markets are very shaky... sensitive to any possible bear-ish news... either another major terrorist attack, a natural disaster or outbreak of a disease etc can really turn it really bad.



off to check how DOW is doing.