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Tomorrow's trading on the ASX?

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Australia

The ASX is expected to open lower this morning with ASX200 futures down -56 points or -0.73% to 7,665. The index finished -0.2% lower on Friday, with a -1.88% fall in financials offsetting a 1.85% gain in material. In focus this morning at 11:00 AEDT are the latest consumer inflation expectations for March, while the Australian Dollar is -0.57% lower at 0.6583.

Oil prices extended gains overnight with both WTI and Brent crude up 1.74% and 1.36% respectively, this follows larger than expected draws in oil and gasoline inventories on Wednesday. Iron ore futures fell a further -2.2% on Thursday, and are a further -1.39% weaker this morning at US$101.80 with copper also -0.38% lower. Gold declined -0.52% overnight to US$2,163 with silver also -0.64% lower at US$24.84 and Bitcoin -3.66%.
 
I think we're going through uncharted territory, highish interest rates and very low unemployment rates here and also in the US. Another bump higher in the interest rate could cause the markets to adjust and then followed by another bull market, akin to the bull in the housing market. Then add in the mix what's happening in the Chinese economy as they're our main trade partners. Most good companies in Australia pulled good Q4 profits considering a downward trend in spending.

Plenty of market indicators to keep an eye on, but it's going to be some interesting months ahead.
 
Australia

The ASX is expected to open softer this morning, with ASX200 futures down -13 points or -0.17% to 7,659. The index finished -0.56% lower on Friday taking a weekly loss to -2.25%. Weakness was attributed to a weaker lead from Wall Street following stronger-than-expected producer price data on Thursday. In focus today is the latest economic data from China in the form of fixed asset investment, industrial production, and retail sales. Both the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia will meet to set monetary policy on Tuesday. New Zealand GDP for Q4 2023 is in focus on Thursday, followed by the latest round of PMI reports for Australia. Later in the day, Australian employment data for February will be released, expected to show 30k jobs were added with the unemployment rate expected to edge lower to 4%.

To commodities, oil prices were modestly lower on Friday with both WTI and Brent crude -0.27% and -0.09% lower respectively. Iron ore futures were -0.36% softer on Friday, while copper advanced 1.87% after China said it would cut production. Gold finished -0.29% weaker at US$2,155 while silver rose 1.49% and Bitcoin was -3.99% weaker at US$67,859.
 


CommSec

@commsec
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China’s factory output and investment grew more strongly than expected at the start of the year, as Beijing targets an ambitious annual economic growth goal of around 5%. But the jobless rate rose from 5.1% to 5.3% with retail sales in-line with expectations
 
Wall Steet closed higher on Tuesday as investors await the latest “dot plots” from the Fed and a press conference by Jerome Powell who is expected to reiterate the central bank is awaiting further evidence of inflation cooling, and temper expectations of rate cuts sooner rather than later.

The ASX is expected to rise this morning, with ASX200 futures up 19 points or 0.27% to 7,778. The index rose 0.36% on Tuesday driven by a 2.11% gain in materials followed by energy 1.98% while financials were -0.48% lower. The RBA left interest rates on hold as expected on Tuesday, although notably the tightening basis was removed from the accompanying statement. Governor Bullock noted during the press conference that the central bank could not rule out further rate changes but thinks they’re on the path to getting inflation down to target. In reaction the Australian Dollar was -0.43% lower at 0.6532 while the 3-year government bond yield dropped -6.4 basis points to 3.674%. Traders are now pricing a 96% chance of a rate cut at the August meeting, with a potential second cut by December.

To commodities, oil prices extended gains with both WTI and Brent crude 0.87% and 0.58% higher respectively. Iron ore futures rose a further 2.66% on Tuesday although are -0.41% softer this morning at US$106.20 while copper is -1.36% weaker. Gold edged -0.09% lower to US$2,158 an oz, with silver -0.46% lower and Bitcoin retreated -5.14% to US$63,889
 
News from Stockhead this morning - US Fed holds, Wall Street explodes
US Stock markets surged for the final few hours of Wednesday trade in New York after the US central bank delivered a crowd pleasing call on interest rates, holding the cost of borrowing (federal funds rate) steady.

At 6am in Sydney, the SPI Futures index is pointing to a gain on Thursday of 0.7%.

Forlorn hopes of an escalating rate cut timetable as well as any stubborn vestiges of a hawkish bias were extinguished by the highly-anticipated, yet widely-expected decision, made at 2pm in New York.

Within 90 minutes of the announcement, the dithering 3 major US indices renewed their bullying of record high levels.

Federal Reserve held rates at a 23-year high and maintained expectations for three cuts before the end of 2024.

In the full Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) statement released at 5am on Thursday morning, (AEST), US traders likely noted that Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s team stuck to their guns by maintaining previous expectations of three cuts to the FFR before the end of 2024.

Current US rates – at between 5.25% and 5.5% – are cresting a 23-year high

On Wall St, with 30 mins to play, the S&P500 went from 0.2% before the decision to topping the 5,200 level and smashing a new intraday high.



To read full news report - https://stockhead.com.au/news/us-fed-holds-wall-street-explodes/
 
US equities rose to fresh all-time highs on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve signalled its on track to cut rates later this year.

The ASX is expected to open higher today, with ASX200 futures up 49 points or 0.63% to 7,799. The index finished -0.1% lower on Wednesday, as investors awaited the Fed policy decision overnight. In focus for investors today are the latest round of PMI reports for March at 9 am AEDT followed by unemployment data for February at 11:30 am AEDT. Expectations are for 40k jobs to have been added over the month and see a modest decline in the unemployment rate to 4% from 4.1% previously.

Oil prices slipped overnight with both WTI and Brent crude -1.52% and -1.38% lower respectively. The moves come despite a larger than expected draw in crude of -1.952m barrels vs expectations of a 13k barrel gain. Gasoline inventories also dropped, down -3.31m barrels vs -1.35m forecast. Iron ore futures were -0.86% lower on Wednesday although have rebounded 0.55% this morning to US$106.30 and copper rose 0.47%. Gold climbed 1.35%, boosted by a weaker USD and Treasury yields, silver climbed 2.47% along with Bitcoin 4.27%.
 
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