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Tomorrow's trading on the ASX?

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US equities were mixed on Friday on the back of the AI rally starting to ease, as Fed officials continued to add commentary

The ASX200 is expected to open slightly higher on Monday, with ASX200 futures up +4 basis points or +0.053% at 7,605. The index closed +0.42% higher on Friday, led by gains in the information technology and consumer discretionary sectors which finished +1.51% and 1.49% higher, while the Australian dollar was relatively unchanged at -0.06%.

In stocks on Friday, Block, owner of Afterpay, rose 16.5% on the back of announcing a December quarter revenue that beat analysts’ expectations. While Aussie Broadband finished 18.6% higher after it beat forecasts for internet subscriber and profit growth.

In local economic data this week, investors will be focusing on the latest monthly CPI indicator scheduled to be released on Wednesday, with the markets forecasting a reading of 3.6% an increase on the previous 3.4%. To round off the week, investors will be keeping an eye on the latest retail sales data on Thursday which is expected to show retail sales rose +1.6% on the month.


Oil prices were lower at the close, as demand concerns grew on the back of comments from Fed officials suggesting rates might stay higher for longer, with WTI crude and Brent falling -2.70% and -2.05% to US$76.49 and US$81.62 a barrel. Iron ore futures in Singapore rose +0.30% on Friday to US$120.04 and are relatively unchanged at -0.03% this morning, while copper fell -0.44%. Gold rose +0.54% at US$2.035.40 an oz with silver +0.88% higher, while Bitcoin fell -1.30% on Friday and rose +1.40% over the weekend to finish at 51,695.29.
 
US equities finished modestly lower on Monday as investors await key economic data this week.

The ASX200 is expected to open flat this morning with ASX200 futures down just -3 points or -0.04% to 7,608. The index edged up 0.12% on Monday with a 0.61% gain in financials offsetting a -2.12% fall in energy and -0.37% decline for materials. In focus today as several earnings reports including Altium, Coles, and Woodside Energy. Kogan.com was a notable performer on Monday, climbing 23.7% after reinstating its dividend as it returned to profitability for the December half. Furniture group Adairs was also a high flyer, up 15% after EBITDA for the first half came in at $59.6m, above expectations. Elsewhere, Suncorp climbed 3.6% after reporting a 16% increase in insurance premiums, linked to price rises across the industry.

Oil prices rebounded overnight with both WTI and Brent crude up 1.58% and 1.27% respectively, this follows falls of over -2% on Friday. Iron ore futures in Singapore sank -3.84% on Monday and are down a further -1.15% this morning at US$114 with copper also -1.6% lower. Gold edged -0.16% lower to US$2,032 an oz, with silver down -1.82% to US$22.53 while Bitcoin rallied 5.13% to US$54,426.
 
ASX 200 @ a glance? Looks set to small range...waiting for break above or below...

  • The ASX 200 is on track to form a hanging man reversal candle on the monthly chart. Which would snap its 3-month rally at its own record high
  • Six sectors have risen in February (led by Info tech and industrials) whilst five are trading lower (led by energy and materials are the weakest), which doesn’t provide much confidence of an imminent breakout to a new record high
  • The SPI 200 saw a false break of the 7597 low on Monday, and as I’m expecting another range-bound day then any dips towards the 7595 – 7600 level could pique my interest for another rebound towards the January high.
  • I’m not overly confident that the market has enough juice to simply head for new highs so bulls way want to be cautious around the January highs.

 
Similar Update; ASX to rise ahead of Inflation data, US equities were mostly higher on Tuesday despite bond yields rising after a $42 billion Treasury auction.

The ASX is expected to rise this morning with ASX200 futures 21 points or 0.28% higher at 7,642. The index edged up 0.13% on Tuesday with gains in financials 0.48% offsetting a -0.39% decline in materials. Among individual names, Coles rose 5.48% after beating earnings expectations, with shares in Reece rallying 18.3% after saying profit rose due to a backlog of work amid a shortage of tradies. On the other side, Johns Lyng was a notable underperformer, dropping -13.2% after reporting a decrease in first half profit to $23.4m, below expectations. We continue to see an uptick in M&A activity on the ASX, with shares in CSR up 5.01% after agreeing to a $4.5 billion takeover by France’s Saint-Gobain. The Australian dollar is little changed overnight at 0.6543 ahead of this morning’s monthly inflation estimate for January, expected to show an uptick to 3.6% from 3.4% over the 12 months. Also in focus is an RBNZ rate decision at midday AEDT where no change is expected to 5.5% interest rate.

Oil prices extended gains overnight, with both WTI and Brent crude up 1.42% and 1.13% respectively. Iron ore futures rose 1.81% on Tuesday, although are softer by -0.57% this morning at US$116.85 with copper also up 0.27%. Gold edged -0.08% lower to US$2,029.60 an oz, along with silver -0.17% while Bitcoin rose 4.59% to US$57,165.
 
US equities finished at record highs on Friday with gains continuing to be driven by technology shares.

The ASX is expected to edge up this morning, with ASX200 futures finishing 11 points or 0.14% higher on Friday at 7,728. The index rose 0.61% on Friday reaching a new all-time high, driven by gains in materials 1.99% and financials 0.53% while health care lagged -1.52% weighed by a -1.36% drop in CSL. Shares in Life360 were a notable performer, surging 38.5% after reporting its latest earnings which showed more than 61 million people used its app each month, with revenue increasing 33% and reporting EBITDA well ahead of guidance. Lithium miners were also notable performers as prices for the battery material in China rose, with Pilbara Minerals up 4.3%.

Ahead in economic data this week, Australian GDP for Q4 2023 will be released on Wednesday, expected to show the economy expanded at 1.5% over the year and 0.2% over the quarter. Any potential signs of stimulus as part of China’s National People Congress this week, with inflation data on Friday for February also of interest.

Oil prices extended recent gains on Friday with WTI and Brent crude both up 2.19% and 2.0% to US$79.97 and US$83.55 a barrel. Iron ore futures in Singapore finished weaker on Friday by -1.59% although are 0.84% higher this morning at US$114.20 while copper finished 0.53% higher on Friday. Gold surged 1.889% to US$2,082 an oz, with silver also 1.98% along with Bitcoin 1.89%.
 
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