Tomorrow's trading on the ASX?

Key Events​

• Trading ex-div: SSR Mining (SSR) – $0.08, Janus Henderson Group (JHG) – $0.6
• Dividends paid: Newmark Property REIT (NPR) – $0.01
• Listing: Great Dirt Resources (GR8) at 12:30 pm, Tolu Minerals (TOK) at 12:00 pm

• 11:30 am: RBA Statement of Monetary Policy
• 6:00 pm: UK Q3 GDP
• 11:30 pm: ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 2:00 am: US Consumer Sentiment

Dona Ferentes said:

Wall Street’s closing bell

Click to expand...

KEY EARNINGS​

• 81% have beaten consensus EPS expectations, above the 74% one-year average and the 77% five-year average
• 61% topped consensus sales expectations, below the 69% one-year average and 68% five-year average
• Earnings are coming in 7.1% above expectations, above the 44% one-year average but below the 8.5% five-year average

CENTRAL BANKS​

• Powell warns Fed not confident it is on path to bringing inflation back to target (FT)
• Fed repo facility back below $1tn for first time since August 2021 (Bloomberg)
• ECB makes case for keeping balance sheet big (FT)
• BoE's Pill says interest rates already high enough to tackle inflation (Telegraph)
• RBA upgrades economic forecasts but risk of inflation is higher (Bloomberg)
• Bank of Mexico holds, though hints it could start cuts soon (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS​

• Israel agrees to daily 4-hour pause to allow civilians to evacuate (Bloomberg)
• Israeli PM Netanyahu says does not seek to occupy Gaza (Reuters)
• Netanyahu says a peace deal with Saudi Arabia was still possible (Bloomberg)
• Iran warns about broader conflict (Reuters)
• Yellen begins talks with Chinese counterpart, which will include discussions on use of economic tools for national security purposes (Bloomberg)

CHINA​

• China new loans to have shrunk in October due to seasonal factors (Reuters)
• Chinese banks ramp up short-term debt amid liquidity concerns (Bloomberg)
• China's slow economy takes 9% off global manufacturers' profits (Nikkei)

ECONOMY​

• Moody's lowers US outlook to negative due to wider fiscal deficits and political polarization (Bloomberg)
• US consumer sentiment drops again in November, inflation expectations climb to the highest level since March 2011 (Reuters)
• UK GDP stagnated in Q3, justifying increased focus on growth over inflation (FT)

Industry ETFs​

Key Events​

• Trading ex-div: Macquarie Group (MQG) – $2.55
• Dividends paid: Narvey Norman (HVN) – $0.12
• Listing: None

Industry ETFs​

Key Events​

• Trading ex-div: QV Equities (QVE) – $0.013, National Australia Bank (NAB) – $0.84
• Dividends paid: Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW) – $0.065
• Listing: None

• 10:30 am: Westpac Consumer Confidence
• 11:30 am: NAB Business Confidence
• 6:00 pm: UK Unemployment Rate
• 9:00 pm: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
• 12:30 am: US Inflation Rate

Industry ETFs​

Sectors to Watch: Green Everywhere​

• US inflation was cooler-than-expected
• Yields down, US dollar down and VIX down
• Economic data remains resilient
• The market is bouncing back from extreme oversold indicators and bearish positioning
• CNN Fear & Greed Index is at Neutral (more fuel before things get contrarian bearish)

Key Events​

• Trading ex-div: Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Dicker Data (DDR) – $0.10
• Dividends paid: Waypoint REIT (WPR) – $0.04, Autosports Group (ASG) – $0.10
• Listing: None

• 10:50 am: Japan Q3 GDP Growth
• 1:00 pm: China Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment
• 1:00 pm: China Unemployment Rate
• 6:00 pm: UK Inflation Rate
• 12:30 am: US Producer Price Index
• 12:30 am: US Retail Sales

CENTRAL BANKS​

• BOJ's hawkish views suggest negative rates may end in 1Q24 (Reuters)
• China MLF operation sees biggest net liquidity injection since 2016 (Reuters)
• Villeroy says ECB confident inflation will return toward 2% target by 2025 (Bloomberg)
• Fed's Daly says recent data shows deceleration in inflation (FT)

GEOPOLITICS​

• President Biden and Xi to meet Thursday in San Francisco (Reuters)
• Congressional report finds Chinese companies still buying US equipment for advance semiconductors despite new export rules (Reuters)
• Israel raids Gaza's Al Shifa Hospital, urges Hamas to surrender (FT)
• US averts government shutdown, House passes funding bill pushed by Speaker Johnson to keep spending at current levels until Jan-Feb (FT)

CHINA​

• China retail sales, industrial data grow faster than expected in October (Reuters)
• China mulls $137bn of new funds to aid housing market (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY​

• US producer prices unexpectedly fall in October (Reuters)
• US retail sales fell in October for the first time in seven months (CNN)
• Japan economy shrinks in Q3 on inflation and weak yen (Bloomberg)
• UK inflation marks bigger than expected drop on falling oil prices (FT)
• Eurozone industrial production posts seventh straight decline (Reuters)
• Australia wage price index flags record growth (Reuters)

Industry ETFs​

Key Events​

• Trading ex-div: Copper Strike (CSE) – $0.02, ANZ (ANZ) – $0.94, Bisalloy (BIS) – $0.105, Orica (ORI) – $0.25
• Dividends paid: Bank of Queensland (BOQ) – $0.21, InvoCare (IVC) – $0.60, Myer (MYR) – $0.01
• Listing: None

• 10:50 am: Japan Balance of Trade
• 11:30 am: Australia Unemploymen

CENTRAL BANKS​

• Fed's Daly says recent data shows deceleration in inflation (FT)
• Fed’s Mester says she hasn’t decide on another rate hike (Bloomberg)
• BoE likely to cut rates in spring 2024 after inflation falls (London Times)

GEOPOLITICS​

• Biden and Xi agree to restore military talks and combat fentanyl (FT)
• Biden says has not changed view that Xi is a dictator (Reuters)
• Xi tells American executives he wants friendly relations with US (Bloomberg)
• Hamas tentatively agrees to deal to free ~50 hostages in exchange for 3-5 day pause in fighting (Washington Post)
• White House energy adviser says US will enforce sanctions against Iran (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY​

• US continuing jobless claims rise to highest in almost two years (Bloomberg)
• Japan export growth slows amid lull in global demand (Reuters)
• Japan GDP contraction poses setback for early BOJ policy normalization (Nikkei)
• China house price declines accelerates as sentiment remains weak (Reuters)
• Australian employment higher than expected, but jobless rate ticks up (Reuters)
• Goldman Sachs argues only unforeseen shock event is likely to cause recession (CNBC)
• JPMorgan says "we look for momentum to slow further into 2024 as growth slips below trend and the economy walks a fine line between expansion and contraction."

Industry ETFs​

Key Events​

• Trading ex-div: Washington H Soul Pattinson (SOL) – $0.51
• Dividends paid: Bank of Queensland (BOQ) – $0.21, Invocare (IVC) – $0.60, Myer (MYR) – $0.01
• Listing: None

• 6:00 pm: UK Retail Sales
• 12:00 am: US Building Permits

MARKETS​

• S&P 500 higher, closed at the midpoint of session ranges
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq capped off a third-straight week of gains
• Russell 2000 marked its second-best weekly performance of the year
• All US sectors finished higher last week, led by cyclicals and semiconductors
• Oil prices rally 4.4% but still finished the week down 1.6%
• Bullish focus points for the week: Easing financial conditions with Goldman Sachs US Financial Conditions Index down ~25 bps in the first four days of last week, disinflation momentum after cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI prints, market repricing for more rate cuts in 2024, no geopolitical-related escalation and more China policy support
• Bearish focus points for the week: More scrutiny around bad news is good news dynamic, Walmart more cautious on the consumer, another premature dovish pivot
• US bond markets functioning well despite increased volatility (Reuters)
• Small caps have had notable recent strength but companies remains vulnerable to high debt funding costs and risks of a downturn (Bloomberg)
• Eurozone yields hit fresh two-month lows as markets price in 100 bps of rate cuts in 2024 (Reuters)
• Oil falls to lowest since early July, adding pressure on OPEC+ to consider whether to extend output cuts (FT)

STOCKS​

• Gap earnings beat outshines bleak holiday-quarter sales forecast (Reuters)
• Amazon has announces strategic partnership with Hyundai to sell cars online in the US at the beginning of 2024 (RetailWeek)
• Intel jumps to 17-month high after Mizuho analyst upgrade (Reuters)

EARNINGS​

• Earnings growth rate for Q3 S&P 500 EPS currently sits at 4.3%, well-above the -0.3% expected at the start of earnings season
• Revenue growth rate of 2.4%
• Of the 94% of S&P 500 companies that have reported Q3 earnings, 82% have beaten consensus EPS expectations, above the one-year average of 74% and five-year average of 77%
• 62% of beaten revenue expectations, both below the one-year average of 69% and the five-year average of 68%

CENTRAL BANKS​

• Fed's Barr flags hedge funds' risky trading practices (Bloomberg)
• Fed Governor Cook wary of overly severe economic downturn (Bloomberg)
• BoJ's Ueda weighs both sides of weak yen's impact (Bloomberg)
• ECB's Villeroy says slowdown in inflation justifies rate-hike pause (Bloomberg)
• ECB forecast to cut 100 bps in 2024 on weak economic outlook (Bloomberg)
• BoE rate-setters push back against market rate cut bets (Bloomberg)
• BOJ will debate easy-policy exit when inflation nears target (Reuters)

GEOPOLITICS​

• Biden says better US-China ties benefits world, acknowledges lingering economic tensions (Bloomberg)
• Xi vows to ease investment barriers for foreign businsesses (Bloomberg)
• EU Commission Chief urges states to begin economic de-risking from China (SCMP)
• Iran told US it did not want Israel-Hamas war to escalate (FT)
• China and Japan reaffirm 'strategic relationship' in rare leader talks (Reuters)

ECONOMY​

• UK retail sales unexpectedly decline (Bloomberg)
• US housing starts rise moderately on tight housing supply (Reuters)
• US expected to see record air-travel volumes for this Thanksgiving week (CNBC)

Industry ETFs​

Sectors to Watch​

Global X Uranium daily chart (Source: TradingView)​

• China's battery-grade lithium carbonate futures fell for its 21st straight day to fresh two-year lows last Friday
• SQM reported its third-quarter results on Thursday, shares down 8.0%. Management had some pretty grim things to stay about the state of markets
• "We believe this trend (of falling prices) could continue for the reminder of the year. Given the stock levels of battery materials and lithium chemicals, and an additional lithium supply which entered the market during the year, our sales volumes in the fourth quarter 2023 could ultimately be similar or lower than the sales volumes reported during the third quarter 2023."
• China's Li Auto said it will start mass production and delivery of its first EV in February 2024

The State of Play​

• JPMorgan: "We look for momentum to slow further into 2024 as growth slips below trend and the economy walks a fine line between expansion and contraction ... the Federal Reserve to start lowering rates in the second half of 2024 to avoid a recession, with inflation close to, but still above target."
• JPMorgan: "It’s a market where emotion is overriding logic, technicals & fundamentals are completely different languages, where momentum is king, where crowding is your best friend one minute and worst enemy the next, where contrarianism is wrong 20 days in a row then right 20 days in a row. It’s a remarkably tough tape and performance is reflective of 'good calls that go unrewarded' and bad calls 'show you the door.'
• Short covering: Invesco QQQ (ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100) experienced its biggest inflow in a decade last week as advisors had to cover their short positions.
• Retail isn't buying: In October, retail investors sold off nearly $15.6 billion in stocks, the largest monthly outflow from retail since 2021, according to the latest S&P Global Market Intelligence Data.
• Bank of America: "... Investors currently riding "buy signal" that should last through year-end and possibly carry the S&P 500 higher through to January. Retail data, however, shows many investors have missed the rally since selling at the highest levels back in October."

Key Events​

• Trading ex-div: Tamawood (TWD) – $0.16, Silk Laser Australia (SLA) – $0.10
• Dividends paid: Clover Corp (CLV) – $0.007
• Listing: None

CENTRAL BANKS​

• Fed's Barkin positive on recent inflation signals but warns it is stubborn (Bloomberg)
• ECB's Wunsch warns rate cuts risks could prompt rate increases if it undermines current policy stance (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS​

• Israeli tanks spotted near hospital in North Gaza amid hostage deal talks (Reuters)
• Officials caution Israel against long, bloody insurgency in Gaza (Reuters)
• Arab nations urge China to back ceasefire in Gaza as Beijing intensifies Middle East influence efforts (Reuters)
• Argentina's Milei vows political transformation after surprise win (Bloomberg)
• Janet Yellen says Biden and Xi are still far apart on Taiwan's independence (CNBC)

CHINA​

• China financial regulators and PBOC pledge to support property sector (Reuters)
• Analysts say China needs to pull 'multiple levers' for property turnaround (Reuters)
• PBOC pauses rate cuts amid shift to stabilise pace of credit extension (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY​

• Japan workers set for second year of wage hikes (Reuters)

Industry ETFs​

The State of Play​

• Yardeni Research: "We remain bullish on the S&P 500, which we expect will consolidate ... for a few more days before resuming the Santa Claus rally ... We are still forecasting ... 4600 by the end of the year. A solid break above 4550 could signal a very good start for stocks in 2024.”
• Goldman Sachs: "Our baseline macro forecasts point to a roughly unchanged equal-weight S&P 500 P/E of 14x at year-end 2024 that would rank in the 65th percentile since 1976. In contrast, the aggregate S&P 500 P/E of 18x will rank in the 83rd percentile versus history."
• Goldman Sachs: “We expect the FOMC to begin considering changes to the speed of runoff around Q3 2024 ... and to finish runoff in Q1 2025 ... The key risk ... is that the increased supply of debt ... causes intermediation bottlenecks ... that lead the Fed to stop runoff earlier.”
• Bank of America: It's 2024 forecasts include a "soft landing in US and global economy, lower inflation, easier monetary policy, higher oil prices, lower US dollar, modest decline in bond yields, modest but broader upside in global equities.”

Source: Bank of America​

Milei Wins in Argentina​

• Believes the government should have very little power over the economy
• Seeks to abolish the Central Bank of Argentina
• Seeks to dollarise the Argentina economy
• Promote free-market economics including tax cuts, reducing government spending and privatising state-owned enterprises

Key Events​

• Trading ex-div: Elders (ELD) – $0.23, Kelly Partners (KPG) – $0.004, Amcor (AMC) – $0.19
• Dividends paid: Adacel Technologies (ADA) – $0.015
• Listing: None

• 11:30 am: RBA Meeting Minutes
• 12:30 am: Canada Inflation Rate
• 6:00 am: FOMC Minutes

CENTRAL BANKS​

• Fed's Barkin positive on recent inflation signals but warns it is stubborn (Bloomberg)
• NY Fed survey shows US demand for new credit down in 2023 (Reuters)
• ECB's Villeroy says rates probably at a plateau or a few quarters (Bloomberg)
• BoE signals rates must stay high in spite of fall in inflation (FT)
• RBA concerned elevated inflation will spur rise in inflation expectations (Bloomberg)

CHINA​

• China property stocks rally as authorities compile list of firms for support (Bloomberg)
• China pushes state banks to accelerate funding to support property developers (FT)
• Chinese yuan rises above daily reference rate for first time since July (Bloomberg)
• China stock purchases by overseas investors set to hit eight-year low (FT)

ECONOMY​

• US existing home sales slump to more than 13-year lows (Reuters)
• US retail sales growth seen at 5-year low over year-end shopping season (Nikkei)
• German budget crisis deepens with freeze on this year's finances (Bloomberg, Reuters)
• ECB report warns CRE hits could worsen economic stress (Bloomberg)
• South Korea exports rise in first 20 days of November (Yonhap)

Industry ETFs​