Tomorrow's trading on the ASX?

[trmcom]

What do l think ASX200 is in a hole but it is probably the lowest part of the cycle or a good time for entry, (l have held that for the last two weeks expecting a serious bull run soon).

AI chip/China blockage has spooked US setiment but it is fear for fears sake or it will bounce back soon enough.

 

[eskys]

Industry ETFs​

Thu 19 Oct 23, 8:33am (AEDT)

Description	Last	Chg %
Commodities
Silver	20.95	+0.14%
Uranium	25.41	+0.12%
Gold Miners	29.45	-0.27%
Copper Miners	34.49	-2.54%
Steel	61.8328	-3.19%
Lithium & Battery Tech	51.28	-4.06%
Strategic Metals	60.37	-4.69%
Industrials
Agriculture	21.92	+0.27%
Aerospace & Defense	109.31	-0.32%
Construction	48.23	-3.15%
Global Jets	15.49	-4.38%
Healthcare
Biotechnology	119.57	-2.10%
Cannabis	5.79	-3.02%

Description	Last	Chg %
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin	14.38	-1.10%
Renewables
Solar	48.23	-2.92%
CleanTech	10.06	-4.01%
Hydrogen	6.7	-4.69%
Technology
Cybersecurity	24.44	-1.09%
Video Games/eSports	50.8675	-1.76%
Semiconductor	471.26	-1.80%
Cloud Computing	18.58	-1.90%
E-commerce	17.5057	-1.93%
FinTech	19.67	-2.62%
Electric Vehicles	22.4	-3.07%
Robotics & AI	23.71	-3.15%
Sports Betting/Gaming	14.8842	-3.16%

 

[eskys]

Sectors to Watch: Brace for Pain​

Markets are struggling against the rising bond yield and geopolitical tensions backdrop.
Lithium: Rare Earths & Strategic Metals ETF down 4.7% and Albemarle down 9.8% overnight. Bank of America downgraded the lithium producer to an Underperform rating, citing a challenged outlook for the lithium market and concerns of weaker prices into 2025. Tesla also missed earnings expectations, with a notably 16 days of inventory left (aka expect more price cuts).
Travel: US Global Jets ETF down 4.4% to a fresh 12-month low. The poor guidance from United Airlines flagged some industry wide cost pressures surrounding labour, maintenance and landing fees. This could see some negative for Qantas (ASX: QAN).
Materials: Materials was the worst performing sector overnight, down 2.6%. US-listed BHP and Rio Tinto also finished the session down 2.1% and 3.0% respectively.

Key Events​

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Trading ex-div: The Reject Shop (TRS) – $0.16, Cosol (COS) – $0.015
• Dividends paid: Flight Centre (FLT) – $0.18, Nine Entertainment (NEC) – $0.05, Lovisa (LOV) – $0.31
• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:50 am: Japan Balance of Trade
• 11:30 am: Australia Unemployment Rate
• 3:00 am: Fed Chair Powell Speech

 

[eskys]

ASX 200 Performance During Rising Geopolitical Tensions​

In short: Geopolitical events do not exhibit any consistent patterns for risk assets.

---

Event	Event Date	1 Month	3 Months	6 Months	12 Months
Soros Breaks Bank of England	16/09/1992	-6.2%	0.6%	8.0%	22.7%
First World Trade Centre Bombing	26/02/1993	4.1%	8.2%	18.3%	28.3%
Asian Financial Crisis	8/10/1997	-8.9%	-2.6%	1.3%	-10.9%
USS Cole Yemen Bombing	12/10/2000	2.0%	0.4%	0.1%	-0.1%
September 11 Attacks	11/09/2001	-1.3%	3.7%	7.2%	-2.9%
Iraq War	20/03/2003	4.0%	7.8%	11.5%	19.9%
Madrid Bombing	11/03/2004	0.7%	1.5%	5.1%	23.1%
London Subway Bombing	5/07/2005	1.7%	7.9%	11.0%	18.5%
Bear Stearns Collapses	14/03/2008	3.7%	2.3%	-5.8%	-35.8%
Lehman Brothers Collapses	15/09/2008	-10.7%	-25.5%	-30.5%	-5.8%
Boston Marathon Bombing	20/02/2014	-1.2%	0.2%	3.9%	8.7%
Russia Annexed Crimea	24/06/2016	8.3%	5.1%	9.8%	11.8%
Brexit	7/04/2017	-0.4%	-1.8%	-3.6%	-1.3%
Bombing of Syria	28/07/2017	-0.6%	3.7%	6.2%	10.5%
North Korean Missile Crisis	28/07/2017	-0.6%	3.7%	6.2%	10.5%
Saudi Aramco Drone Strike	14/09/2019	-0.5%	1.0%	-20.5%	-11.5%
Iranian General Killed in Airstrike	3/01/2020	3.2%	-23.5%	-11.9%	-0.8%
US Pulls out of Afghanistan	30/08/2021	-4.1%	-3.5%	-6.1%	-6.7%

---

	1 Month	3 Months	6 Months	12 Months
Average	-0.4%	-0.6%	0.6%	4.4%
Median	-0.4%	1.3%	4.5%	4.3%
% Higher	44.4%	72.2%	66.7%	50.0%

 

[divs4ever]

What do l think ASX200 is in a hole but it is probably the lowest part of the cycle or a good time for entry, (l have held that for the last two weeks expecting a serious bull run soon).

AI chip/China blockage has spooked US setiment but it is fear for fears sake or it will bounce back soon enough.

am not sure about ' the hole ' more like the doldrums ( imo )

but a serious move ... could be but UP or DOWN

and which sectors/stock would spike higher

the big 4 banks , a possible relief rally ( and might be seen as safer than bonds , ie divs , franking and possibly capital gains )

the big miners gee they have been at cycle highs for a while now

energy some would argue they are too small a part of the index to move the needle much ( and a spike in energy is liable to dampen stocks elsewhere in the index )

 

[trmcom]

am not sure about ' the hole ' more like the doldrums ( imo )

but a serious move ... could be but UP or DOWN

and which sectors/stock would spike higher

the big 4 banks , a possible relief rally ( and might be seen as safer than bonds , ie divs , franking and possibly capital gains )

the big miners gee they have been at cycle highs for a while now

energy some would argue they are too small a part of the index to move the needle much ( and a spike in energy is liable to dampen stocks elsewhere in the index )

US sentiment or SPY/TQQQ/QQQ, etc is dragging the ASX200 down with it, although l am expecting pullback sometime today, and more bullish sentiment later on tonight when the US markets take over.

Just have to grin and bear it at the moment even though it sucks.

 

[divs4ever]

US sentiment or SPY/TQQQ/QQQ, etc is dragging the ASX200 down with it, although l am expecting pullback sometime today, and more bullish sentiment later on tonight when the US markets take over.

Just have to grin and bear it at the moment even though it sucks.

thought i had a chance to deploy some spare cash , but my targets aren't in range yet

maybe tomorrow

 

[eskys]

Asian markets not happy, US and Europe pre market red, and gold is ticking down

 

[divs4ever]

Asian markets not happy, US and Europe pre market red, and gold is ticking down

when are the options due ? maybe that is the key

 

[eskys]

when are the options due ? maybe that is the key

Today

 

[trmcom]

Some are saying that tech earnings, (US) is going to crash the market l think it has already tanked.

 

[divs4ever]

Some are saying that tech earnings, (US) is going to crash the market l think it has already tanked.

well apart from 'the magnificent seven ' the US market is not traveling so well , if as some suspect , those seven stocks are being manipulated up for political purposes with the index funds blindly following along ( after all they are programmed to reflect cap. weighting )

but can it ( the US markets ) go lower still even if the seven stay well supported ?

for my observations a lot of the US market is more focused on capital gains ( than income returns ) so many are more interested in forecast earnings than actual earnings

Russell 2000 (^RUT)​

Chicago Options - Chicago Options Delayed Price. Currency in USD
Follow

1,702.70-26.11 (-1.51%)
At close: 04:30PM EDT


the Russel 2000 is lagging noticeably even on a daily ( decline/rise ) basis

 

[divs4ever]

Tesla, Ford, and GM struggle amid 'unrealistic' demand expectations for EV trucks​

Tesla, Ford, and GM struggle amid 'unrealistic' demand expectations for EV trucks

While Tesla and Musk are confident in the Cybertruck demand story, it seems that hasn’t been the case for other EV pickups that are currently on the market.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[eskys]

Industry ETFs​

Fri 20 Oct 23, 8:37am (AEDT)

Description	Last	Chg %
Commodities
Uranium	25.85	+1.73%
Silver	21.11	+0.76%
Gold Miners	29.51	+0.20%
Copper Miners	34.2	-0.84%
Steel	61.0175	-1.32%
Lithium & Battery Tech	49.6	-3.28%
Strategic Metals	58.31	-3.41%
Industrials
Agriculture	21.97	+0.23%
Global Jets	15.37	-0.77%
Aerospace & Defense	108.25	-0.97%
Construction	47.44	-1.64%
Healthcare
Biotechnology	117.61	-1.64%
Cannabis	5.67	-2.07%

Description	Last	Chg %
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin	14.69	+2.16%
Renewables
CleanTech	9.83	-2.29%
Hydrogen	6.52	-2.69%
Solar	46.75	-3.07%
Technology
Cloud Computing	18.48	-0.54%
FinTech	19.56	-0.56%
Video Games/eSports	50.55	-0.62%
Robotics & AI	23.52	-0.80%
Cybersecurity	24.205	-0.96%
Sports Betting/Gaming	14.6849	-1.34%
Semiconductor	464	-1.54%
E-commerce	17.2	-1.75%
Electric Vehicles	21.89	-2.28%

 

[eskys]

Key Events​

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Trading ex-div: Kelly Partners (KPG) – $0.004, Sandon Capital (SNC) – $0.02
• Dividends paid: ARB Corp (ARB) – $0.30, Austal (ASB) – $0.03, Capitol Health (CAJ) – $0.005, COG Financial Services (COG) – $0.04, Charter Hall Social Infrastructure (CQE) – $0.04, KMD Brands (KMD) – $0.02, Kelsian Group (KLS) – $0.09
• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:30 am: Japan Inflation
• 5:00 pm: UK Retail Sales

 

[eskys]

Charts of the Week​

This segment of the morning wrap brings you weekly technical commentary on the ASX 200 and some of the more interesting charts in the market. These are not meant as recommendations and for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future return. Always do your own research.

ASX 200 – Back to the grind

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: Commsec)​

After some activity off the 6900 region and a modest defence of the 7,000 level, the bulls gave up the ghost yesterday with the index breaking down through 7,000 again and closing beneath that key level as well. More notable is the downtrend resistance which has formed and which is highlighted on the chart above. Any time over the past four months that the bulls have attempted a rally, it has been snuffed out and the index has been dragged lower. The price action is looking more bearish than bullish overall, and a retest of the 6,900 support region now looks likely at some point.

 

[trmcom]

Well markets went sour and l lost what l had made.

Although l recovered about 4%

Trying to position myself for the long bear run we should be seeing for the ASX.

 

[divs4ever]

i was distracted most of Friday , but later ( after the close i noted AWC ( i don't hold , but have in the past ) and ILU ( i hold ) arrived at some interesting prices AWC closed @ 81 cents and ILU under $7

now sure both should be facing some headwinds for a while ( years rather than months )

but if investing/accumulating when is a good time to dip a toe in

 

[Smurf1976]

If my LIC ever goes to cash , I'll dump 'em right away.
5% cash at the moment. I can live with that.
They charge nearly 100 basis points so, work for it . Money managers ? Well , manage !
I can do "cash" myself. Doing it right now, in fact. It's easy.
And it's dumb.

You don’t want them to hold cash even if that’s the best return available?

You’d rather they stay in the market during a crash?

Personally if I’m paying someone to manage money then I want them to do whatever makes money.

 

[trmcom]

You don’t want them to hold cash even if that’s the best return available?

You’d rather they stay in the market during a crash?

Personally if I’m paying someone to manage money then I want them to do whatever makes money.

Exactly that is why l don't waste my time with the junk advise in the Herald Sun about what to hold or sell.