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Thanks, but I think I have it already. Trades About to Happen. ~Weis
TNY - Tinybeans Group
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I will preface this by saying, when I use any resistance/support lines or moving averages, I am trying to capture what the majority of the market is looking at. In other words I am attempting to foresee a potential for movement by the majority.
I am not buying into any stocks from now on until the overheads have been resolved on the Aussie and US Indices. I may be stopping too early and lose a bit of the top, but I look for my comfort spot, if the major indices fail and there is a scramble to sell, I have no desire to be caught in the middle.
I am not going to comment on TNY but I will say that when any of my stocks are breaching the 21dsma I am making an orderly exit.
All this is totally off topic and time consuming so I won't be repeating lengthy posts like this in the future.
I saw this on my own chart but didn't comment....I can see a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern forming as you have drawn it.
Why I use the 21d is lost in the mists of time. I have used it forever. I would imagine it was a MA which some of the chartists used when I was first teaching myself to chart over at IC. I have it set on 'Simple', Simple is what the S stands for because Stockcharts which is a massively popular charting program uses simple moving averages of 50 and 200 as its default. As I said at the start, I am attempting to look at what the majority looks at.
Over and over I find the price appears to respond to this time period MA. However it is simply a personal choice and someone else may prefer a different time frame.
42 might be very significant if someone is trying to time the markets ahead of others, I have never used it because the 50day is the popular one. Just want to keep in step.
It may be a coincidence but it is a regular coincidence.
Moving averages can be used as a stop loss level. If it rises back above, that means the stock hasn't capitulated.
I chose $1.40 as a resistance after the price ran up and closed at $1.40 before it fell back on the following days. It had one day where the price closed above this line before it fell back again. This tells me the $1.40 support line is still weak and needs to be able to hold price levels above it. Until that time it remains as a 'resistance' line. I prefer to draw my lines on the End of Day price level. It is simply a personal preference, it has worked better for me over the years and it is often confirmed when Fibonacci levels are used. My support/resistance lines often correspond to Fibonacci levels. It is just a confirmation for me, that I am using a 'popular' line. As I said, I am trying to correspond with what everyone else is looking at.
I am not buying into any stocks from now on until the overheads have been resolved on the Aussie and US Indices. I may be stopping too early and lose a bit of the top, but I look for my comfort spot, if the major indices fail and there is a scramble to sell, I have no desire to be caught in the middle.
I am not going to comment on TNY but I will say that when any of my stocks are breaching the 21dsma I am making an orderly exit.
All this is totally off topic and time consuming so I won't be repeating lengthy posts like this in the future.
I saw this on my own chart but didn't comment....I can see a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern forming as you have drawn it.
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Good Evening
It is with great sadness and a heavy heart that I have decided to declare this thread over and done. I have many fond memories and have even made new friends (as well as people who have put me on ignore merely for disagreeing with them) - but it has well and truly run its course (and probably broken a new record at 25 pages!).
I will be contributing nothing further henceforth and wish you all the best with your investing.
It is with great sadness and a heavy heart that I have decided to declare this thread over and done. I have many fond memories and have even made new friends (as well as people who have put me on ignore merely for disagreeing with them) - but it has well and truly run its course (and probably broken a new record at 25 pages!).
I will be contributing nothing further henceforth and wish you all the best with your investing.
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Verce.....Nooooo don't go! We need your smarts here.Good Evening
It is with great sadness and a heavy heart that I have decided to declare this thread over and done. I have many fond memories and have even made new friends (as well as people who have put me on ignore merely for disagreeing with them) - but it has well and truly run its course (and probably broken a new record at 25 pages!).
I will be contributing nothing further henceforth and wish you all the best with your investing.
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You have no reason to feel that way Verce ……. The thread will be a great learning tool into the future (however it pans out from here)
If you no longer contribute, that is perfectly fine, and your decision ….. but from a T/A and F/A combined scenario, TNY is, and may in the future be, a great lesson for all and sundry
Its an unusual Stock in many ways ….. I will certainly be keeping an eye on it as a reference
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Nope
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Ann Thanks for the reply.
I have a lot to add but before I do (relative to the analysis)
Do others think it should stay here or move out of the TNY
thread?
GB
The Secret Science of Price and Volume
Timothy Ord. ISBN 978-0-470-13898-4
I have a lot to add but before I do (relative to the analysis)
Do others think it should stay here or move out of the TNY
thread?
GB
The Secret Science of Price and Volume
Timothy Ord. ISBN 978-0-470-13898-4
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Thanks tech, but books don't mean much to me unless they show evidence that it works (via a properly backtested system). My efforts to code Wyckoff and Wyckoff-style systems failed to show any edge. I showed it here only because I continue to work it over, looking for clues. There might be an edge but I haven't found one. Maybe it has some use for long term trend followers, but I doubt that too.
verce took off because he perceieved no value here. I notice he's still holding the stock and posting on HC. In my reckoning, he will make good money on this due to his attitude.
verce took off because he perceieved no value here. I notice he's still holding the stock and posting on HC. In my reckoning, he will make good money on this due to his attitude.
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One need only look at Modest's thread to see that it was his belief in Wyckoff that drove his success, not the Wyckoff method itself. Of course you have to be able to read between the lines and most people can't do that. Most people on here will never understand this in their entire lifetime of trading. verce had a clue.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Well GB
That’s a book for you
That’s a book for you
Good Evening
It is with great sadness and a heavy heart that I have decided to declare this thread over and done. I have many fond memories and have even made new friends (as well as people who have put me on ignore merely for disagreeing with them) - but it has well and truly run its course (and probably broken a new record at 25 pages!).
I will be contributing nothing further henceforth and wish you all the best with your investing.
After much reflection and careful consideration I have decided to RE-OPEN this thread for discussion.
Tinybeans is back on the menu! Always persevere and make your own luck. I will never surrender!
• Tinybeans has been chosen by Apple to be the “App of the Day” in Australia, France, Brazil and 73 other countries;
• This coincides with Apple’s Worldwide developer conference going on at present where the major theme is Data Privacy;
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Wow! Great news for TNY verce! I am so pleased you are not going, you are a pleasure and a delight, we need you here.
I am going to put up a chart for TNY which shows a Head & Shoulders pattern which is very bearish at the top of a chart, rarely do they fail to resolve in my experience. However, who knows with TNY, it may be a bear trap!
Perhaps it isn't a head and shoulders pattern at all, maybe it is TNY's golden crown being worn at a jaunty angle!
This sounds a bit like the theme from Rocky at the beginning!
I am going to put up a chart for TNY which shows a Head & Shoulders pattern which is very bearish at the top of a chart, rarely do they fail to resolve in my experience. However, who knows with TNY, it may be a bear trap!
Perhaps it isn't a head and shoulders pattern at all, maybe it is TNY's golden crown being worn at a jaunty angle!
This sounds a bit like the theme from Rocky at the beginning!
Wow! Great news for TNY verce! I am so pleased you are not going, you are a pleasure and a delight, we need you here.
I am going to put up a chart for TNY which shows a Head & Shoulders pattern which is very bearish at the top of a chart, rarely do they fail to resolve in my experience. However, who knows with TNY, it may be a bear trap!
Perhaps it isn't a head and shoulders pattern at all, maybe it is TNY's golden crown being worn at a jaunty angle!
View attachment 95293
This sounds a bit like the theme from Rocky at the beginning!
The way I see it - the journey of a multi-bagger is filled with ups and downs and all sorts of positive and negative patterns on the chart.
Plus, there is the chance for game-changing news which would dramatically change the chart into a new pattern. The future looks bright to me!
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This is the one I was thinking of verce....against all the odds he won. Love conquers all!
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I think everyone's opinion on the thread has been of great value … no one needs to go anywhere.
@verce …. Good decision to remain …..
The great thing about trading is that the short term technical traders and the longer term fundamental traders can both get rewarded for their positions even though they disagree
Horses for courses!
tech/a
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A 21 day M/A is 21 periods or a month--This is the only significance it has.
Hardly anyone looks at M/A's let alone the specific one you have chosen (No
matter who that who is).
If you actually do the testing you'll find that its no better than any other M/A in a 10 period displacement.
What appears to being a bounce is just a coincidence--Fooled By Randomness.
All an M/A is is a line drawn from the closing price over X periods, nothing more and nothing less. It is a daily record of what HAPPENED to price
it has absolutely no predictive qualities.
Yes it can and in a system can and is used as entries and exits. Why because they are identifiable and repeatable lines in the sand that you
can use as a condition.
Stock hasn't capitulated
Not so there are no predictive qualities. ALL it means is that today's price (including todays price) has risen back above the 21 day average of price.
It will take many periods before today price and those around today -- appear to have influenced the M/A one way or another. The longer the time frame the harder it is to see.
Highs and lows are often tested.
And this was and is the case with TNY. Its pretty clear with TNY where the boundaries are
As the high has been tested and so has the low and each time price has not made
a convincing or sustained new high or low I would call the high and low support and resistance zones
See chart--- I would buy and sell in these zones with limited risk--of course in the short term.
If longer term and not liking the possible risk then the upper zone would be of most interest or I may
like to add to my position in the lower zone.----a totally different mindset longer and Shorter term
Same analytic tool!
I personally think its dangerous to your profitability not being involved in trading because of Ifs.
The XAO is near all time highs and the DJIA is around the mark as well. If you'd have traded near 100% all the way up then you would have no fear
only risk mitigation plans unless you have compelling evidence (Other than testing a high) that there will be a catastrophic capitulation.
So a 21 Day EMA IS one of your exits?
None of this is off topic in my view infact its very important that analysis is explained.
Why its chosen and how it effects your views. and of course why I think it shouldnt!!
The pattern you see has a long way to go to becoming a Head and Shoulders.
I dont agree that it is a pattern that is often successful.
http://thepatternsite.com/BustHST.html
Really Good info on Head and shoulders.
http://thepatternsite.com/hst.html
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I agree ……. Everyone's opinion is valuable whether we agree or not, and giving an explanation for those opinions is invaluable. Great thread!