Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

TNY - Tinybeans Group

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tech/a said:
Hun!
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Ann said:
precious petal
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I'm a sucker for romance:kiss:

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Sorry but I’m very happily Married
I think and certainly hope Ann and
Everyone here takes the banter as
I’m sure we both intended it to be
Harmless fun .

These days you have to be crystal
Clear.
 
tech/a said:
Sorry but I’m very happily Married
I think and certainly hope Ann and
Everyone here takes the banter as
I’m sure we both intended it to be
Harmless fun .

These days you have to be crystal
Clear.
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...and we can honestly say we have never even PMd each other once in all the years we have been here. We are muckin' around folks...watch out or he might put you on Ignore! Is the Ignore count still two or has it gone up without me noticing?! :D
 
All good tech and Anne … we all know its in good humour so please feel free to carry on as is … anyone who possibly missed the tongue in cheek please note that even Obama understands:p

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anne and techy sitting in the tree .......... lol

(that was during an interview when he said that he would never in a trillion years invade Pakistan to carry out a hostile armed mission and kill people that lived there)
 
barney said:
All good tech and Anne … we all know its in good humour so please feel free to carry on as is … anyone who possibly missed the tongue in cheek please note that even Obama understands:p

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Barney
You have such a fertile imagination (or effect of pot ??) that companies manufacturing Seasol etc would be out of money. I remember you mentioned to be a musician. I wished you to be in Western Australia where the soil is very alkaline and I have been trying to reduce the pH by adding sulphur for a long time. Have had a long chat with one of the owners of Manutec today and learnt few new things on my gardening.
Just diverting the attention of all folks and returning to the normal business of making money. One thing for sure procrastination in decision making and accept some high risk. Yesterday, my hand was itching to buy HTA after the great fall. But after reading so many articles, my nerve weakened to see HTA shot up by 12.5% today.
 
Miner
Looking for massive falls that are out of the
Blue are one of the set ups I look for

Very very often the next day is an inside or corrective
Bar the very next day. Just have a risk and entry exit
Plan

I’ll try to find one and post it up real-time.
Only not today too busy
 
Miner said:
You have such a fertile imagination (or effect of pot ??) that companies manufacturing Seasol etc would be out of money.
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Lol … Definitely not a pot-head Miner …. I did work in a band for a couple of years where the Roadies had bongs for breakfast however …. they were the best Roadies I've ever seen though!:geek::D

Anyway, back to TNY ………… Hopefully it can hold above yesterday's close of 96 cents.
 
Now you have my attention.

Volume is low so I'm mindful of a false
breakout.
This is either a pattern break DOWN
OR Break OUT.

Unfortunately Due to lack of commitment
I expect this to stall.

Yeh I know
Bearish out look again but that's what the analysis says.
If it changes or confirms this mornings Price action I MAY change caps.
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/09/opinion/sunday/chris-hughes-facebook-zuckerberg.html

It’s Time to Break Up Facebook

"The cost of breaking up Facebook would be next to zero for the government, and lots of people stand to gain economically. A ban on short-term acquisitions would ensure that competitors, and the investors who take a bet on them, would have the space to flourish. Digital advertisers would suddenly have multiple companies vying for their dollars."

"But the biggest winners would be the American people. Imagine a competitive market in which they could choose among one network that offered higher privacy standards, another that cost a fee to join but had little advertising and another that would allow users to customize and tweak their feeds as they saw fit. No one knows exactly what Facebook’s competitors would offer to differentiate themselves. That’s exactly the point."

_____________________________

My take on all this? Turns out that privacy is important – especially when it comes to family. Tinybeans empowers people with legitimate concerns about entities such as Facebook to take back ownership of their data. Family is arguably the most important thing in our human lives, so it naturally follows that people take this seriously.

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I've previously said that we are witnessing a momentous shift from traditional social media monopolies to more trustworthy niche providers (such as Tinybeans). Similar to how we are also witnessing trust shift from the 'Big Four' banks, VISA & Mastercard to new consumer-friendly brands and services such as Afterpay.
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People overestimate the power and agility of a generic platform like Facebook, which has already suffered reputational and brand damage. Millennial parents are rightfully concerned about privacy, and nobody wants to overshare on a non-secure network. The user reviews of TNY speak for themselves.

Is there evidence of this? Look at the Net Promoter Scores so far. This is the best tool we have when it comes to gauge the popularity of social media.

Tinybeans has a Net Promoter Score of 80 while Facebook is at Minus (-) 21.

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If Life 360 (ASX:360) can IPO today with a market cap of $800 million then TNY can certainly reach $100 million market cap on current metrics.

I'm more confident than ever now.
 
Rightio, I am going to put up two charts today, one is the same one I put up earlier in the week with the symmetrical triangle which is classed as a continuation and so far TNY has been on the rise, so therefore potentially it may rise up from the Symmetrical Triangle. It is teasing us at the moment, a bit below and a bit above the pointy end. Note also there is a rise in the weekly Twiggs money flow, happening in the middle of the pattern, into TNY which is also another bullish signal for me.

The second chart is a chart showing five minute movements throughout the day for six days. This was also traveling in a symmetrical triangle which it has now broken above but has had a retrace to test the area where it broke through the falling overhead resistance. It bounced up off that level. .98c may offer a support level.

tny 10.5.19.png
tny 5min 10.5.19.png
 
verce said:
I like it when the fundamentals...
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What fundamentals? (genuinley interested in which fundamental metrics you are referring to, EPS, Free cash flow, ROIC, ROE, Intrinsic value?)

verce said:
If Life 360 (ASX:360) can IPO today with a market cap of $800 million then TNY can certainly reach $100 million market cap on current metrics.
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Just checking for understanding, you do realise market cap is not an indicator of business quality and is basically disconnected from valuation? I presume you realise that the capitalisation of one business is not something that is comparable to another business in terms of value. You can have a wonderful business with a tiny market cap, and a basket case with a huge market cap. Market cap is simply shares on issue x price.
 
galumay said:
What fundamentals? (genuinley interested in which fundamental metrics you are referring to, EPS, Free cash flow, ROIC, ROE, Intrinsic value?)



Just checking for understanding, you do realise market cap is not an indicator of business quality and is basically disconnected from valuation? I presume you realise that the capitalisation of one business is not something that is comparable to another business in terms of value. You can have a wonderful business with a tiny market cap, and a basket case with a huge market cap. Market cap is simply shares on issue x price.
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I'm certainly not as smart as you when it comes to these metrics. I recognise and acknowledge that. But I do know what a market cap is. Give me a break here! :p

When I say fundamental I look at the story. I'm not really a spreadsheet kind of guy. I just have an instinctive gut feeling about things.

In the nano-cap end of the market in particular, there are lots of companies that are valued higher than TNY despite having zero revenue and inferior growth prospects.

I just see a company getting good reviews and traction globally, and I see future potential. That's all.
 
Verce
You could be right
Actually I do far less fundamental analysis
Than anyone here
Zero
When I saw this thread the tech analysis told its story as of then
It has ever since
One day it may mesh with your gut feeling.
 
verce said:
I'm certainly not as smart as you when it comes to these metrics.
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Its not about who is smarter - your gains on TNY suggest you are smarter than me in this instance!

I am just trying to understand better how you came to develop conviction about the business, and because you used the term 'fundamentals' i was wondering what you were basing it on.

verce said:
When I say fundamental I look at the story. I'm not really a spreadsheet kind of guy. I just have an instinctive gut feeling about things.
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...and that cuts to the chase, I would describe you as a narrative investor, when I started out I used to buy businesses based on the narrative, I reckon its cost me more capital than any of my other errors! Now it just may be that I am not cut out to be a 'narrative investor', maybe its possible to make money, consistently over the long term that way, but its not in my circle of competence!

verce said:
In the nano-cap end of the market in particular, there are lots of companies that are valued higher than TNY despite having zero revenue and inferior growth prospects.
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Maybe, maybe not, with these sort of businesses you are really relying on totally inaccurate forecasts, they all make lofty claims for growth, market potential, market share, customer retention, ARRs, and various other forward looking metrics. I wouldn't be influenced by the relative pricing too much, the market is very fickle and volatile in that space, your conviction derived from the narrative is probably more valuable in deciding whether to continue to hold or not.

Along with your conviction in the narrative, keep an eye on their narrative, each 4C go back and compare the results to the previous one and what they said was going to happen - especially the "Estimated Cash Outflows for the Next Quarter", but also revenue growth and cost reduction.

Any misstep will be punished by the market because the business is currently priced for perfection. (my really rough, mental check of DCF valuation is to reverse engineer the current share price, on that basis TNY is valued for earnings a bit over $3m NPAT - so more than the current total revenue run rate based on the last 4C.)

I dont think its an awful business, just not for me, and certainly not at current prices, but I know a couple of fundamental investors I respect, have taken small postions in TNY.

Of course none of this is advice, nor suggesting i have any special insight, its just sharing how I think about businesses and the approach I use to try to value them. It helps me to communicate my thinking, and maybe you or some others find it of some interest.
 
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