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TLS - Telstra Corporation

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I find it strange there is so much weight on the NBN for TLS. My holdings are more to do with the dominant nature of it's wireless networks. They've had the best network for years and I've been waiting for the competition to catch up but it hasn't happened yet. When eve n the likes of vodafone can make a dent in the market, it sounds like a solid long term play until at least the next mobile tech comes along.
 
Talking about the NBN and Telstra, don't worry, Telstra is as aggressive as any other company in trying to get customers. Today at my local mall, there was this huge multicoloured Telstra Publicity van with balloons all over it inviting locals to talk to them about the NBN. There were quite a few people lined up there. I would have gone over too, it's just that I checked a couple of days ago and my suburb is still not connected.

I agree that their wireless GSM, 3G and 4G networks are second to none. Also where I live, there is a lot of building going on, each new suburb seems to getting the NBN infrastructure in. Admittedly any company can compete for the NBN business but Telstra seems to be doing more than any company trying to get customers to sign up.

Whether I would buy their shares is another matter. I've held in the past but not now.
 

About 90% of Australians, live in the cities, which most of the competitors cover at a cheaper price.

With the NBN, the competitors will be paying the same price as Telstra for access, so Telstra's piggy back payment will fall. It will be compensated, but longer term the return falls.

With regard wireless, Telstra will probably always remain dominant IMO.
Because the competition won't spend the capital required, to compete for the minimal return of capital, in regional areas.

Sad and not good for Australia or Telstra, but I can't see regional reception, supporting Telstras dividend long term.

The best thing they have done IMO is get a part of TEN, makes much more sense, they should have bought it outright years go.
Then integrated free to air, with regional mobile access.
From this they could have integrated travel channels, for tourists, gps location on t.v, all sorts of consumer intergrated apps.
Typical lack of vision, from Telstra.IMO
 
Yes, there is a question of fairness when Telstra does the job for the whole country and the competition picks bits out of the cream
Maybe it's time all of them had to contribute to a fund to subsidise rural networks. Perhaps this happens already, I don't know.
 
Triathlete said:
View attachment 64061
Click to expand...

Following on from my previous analysis on Telstra, we can see that the stock did not hold at $5.75 and has moved to my next price level of $5.15.We are now getting into some interesting price ranges.

Looking at my monthly chart (THE ONE ABOVE IS THE WEEKLY CHART )which is a longer term view the next price levels to look at will be $4.90,then
$4.60 which is a very important level as it is the 50% level of the All Time High which was already mentioned previously and if gets here and does not hold then $4.15 is certainly a possibility in a long range forecast.

The daily, weekly and monthly swings are all down so interesting times ahead for TLS in my view.
 
Some interesting areas there.

TLS seems like a very consistant earner, so any major changes in SP will be valuation or macro related.

Unbelievable how it's doubled with very similar earnings, the yield / NBN narrative got squeezed for everything it was worth up to $6.75!

$4 with 35c EPS doesn't make sense, so will probably take a macro recession / crisis.
$4.50 with a -20% Dow Jones re-valuation with some fear around the macro.
$5 a possibility in current environment.

*I've just used rounded supports, instead but similar ranges.

1 concern I have is the earnings makeup of TLS, it's still got declining divisions like Fixed Line and Foxtel, competition from new technologies like Skype/WhatsApp and it's growth divisions such as E-Health make up a tiny %, and Asian expansion would require about 15% ROIC for it to be worthwhile, and that is a tough target.

But it's a lot steadier company than the banks or commodities when there's downside risk in then next couple of years in the economy / markets.
 
I am very much against paying a company recurring income such as line rental so I investigated VOIP or Voice Over Internet Protocol with my ISP. My ISP told me I cannot get VOIP service because Telstra owns the cable to my house and the contract with Telstra and my ISP will not allow such a service.

Bit suspect how consumers have no alternative because Telstra owns the cable.
 

Like the comments.I am thinking that the stock is getting re-valued.

As you also mentioned about the declining divisions this may be a concern to people so they are getting out after making some nice profits on the way up.

I see lincoln indicators have it valued at $6.18 but EPS is only around 4%.
 

Similar situation to you, I do not want nor need a fixed land line. I was using wireless for a while but I needed more gigabytes and nothing anyone offered was enough. My suburb finally got connected to the ADSL 2 network. I wanted to go with somebody other than Telstra but I was told that unless I already had a phone line connected they could not do it.

So reluctantly (no choice) I bundled with Telstra and got a home phone line plus ADSL 2 on contract for 2 years. In that 2 years I never used the land line. My 2 years is up shortly and then I can change providers as I already have the phone line connected.

With iinet I can get a naked ADSL 2 package with 10 times more gigabyte allowance than what I get now plus I can use VOIP with the wireless modem they supply. This will be cheaper as well. Being forced to pay "line rental" when you don't want nor need it is just a waste of money. Telstra should offer a package that doesn't include the unwanted line rental.
 
The SP has been all over the shop lately.... And certainly not having a good day today...

Couldn't be reputation damage could it?
 
Triathlete said:
Is Telstra about to go lower????
Click to expand...

Of course it will seeing it has just gone X dividend. A lot of holders were hanging on for that precious 15.5c dividend. Give it some time and then take a new look at it further down the track, cheers.
 
Triathlete, you are pushing a few EW boundaries with that count on the chart above - just my

Bit of an overreaction to the dividend today, in theory should have devalued each share by approx 20c but its proximity to a low point may have triggered a few stops or a few short entries.

There are other stocks in the same arena, VOC as one example which is coming up to a dividend and is in an uptrend and has the investment attention of both the NAB and CBA recently and these type of companies may be starting to impinge on TLS.

Just from a weekly EW perspective the weekly chart below is a possible scenario ??

Anyway, just my again !

(click to expand)
 

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Yes dividend would be the cause in drop in price for sure...but It really needs to stay above $4.60 as this is one of the most important levels.

Whichever count we use and I agree with the one you have shown the price targets on both charts match up...

Boggo are you able to put one up using the Monthly chart also, I would like to see how that matches my other chart?
 
Triathlete said:
...

Boggo are you able to put one up using the Monthly chart also, I would like to see how that matches my other chart?
Click to expand...

That software will only produce daily or weekly and if I go to either of my other two programs I would have to force a count and it would be similiar to yours which to me is way out of proportion.

Plenty of action around the $5 area at the moment.
 
I don't understand ellliot wave theory so I am just reading the price action as a bearish flag which puts the target down to about $4.29. Lots of support there and the mid point of the previous range trading is about the 50% retracement.

Should have an attractive yield at that price.
 

So attractive I hope it gets nowhere near that price..

Holding obviously.
 
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