TLS - Telstra Corporation

coolcup · 23 June 2013

The price action on TLS has tested and fallen through the lower end of the upward sloping trend channel and is headed for a test of support at $4.50. I would await confirmation that this support line holds to see if this is indeed a healthy pullback or something a little more sinister. The key risk is continued weakness in the Australian dollar which will add further incentive for offshore investors to keep pulling money out of the Australian market - and they are primarily invested in the liquid, large cap stocks like TLS.

Ann · 23 June 2013

Ann said:
Just a thought. Technically speaking sometimes handles break off cups because there is a greater pattern at play. Keep your stops up to date!

....and the point I was trying to make was the DOW has reached a critical point which suggested to me there may be a decent retrace on the US markets and if this is the case it will drag down the Aussie market with it, including high profile companies like Telstra, so my confidence in a cup and handle outcome may be disappointed, the handle may well be broken off in the washup!

I put up a monthly chart for the DOW for the end of last month. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8840&p=775911&viewfull=1#post775911 I suggested there was a risk of retracement, it appears my fears were correct. I will put up another chart for the DOW at the end of this month for the quarterly view, also not a pretty sight so far. The temptation is great to start shorting.

MrBurns · 23 June 2013

Unions raise doubts over Telstra's copper network; workers using plastic bags to waterproof cables

Unions have told the ABC that Telstra's copper network is in a state of disrepair, with workers at the coalface of the infrastructure using plastic bags to protect cables from water.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-...rk-in-a-state-of-disrepair-say-unions/4774342

Boggo · 23 June 2013

Purely technical (EW) view.

Three downside target areas with 4.32 being the likely predictive probability. Until there is a confirmed reversal at one of those three levels or a break above 4.68 then a case of just watch and wait imo.
There are some some great leverage derivatives on TLS such as TLSIOI that collect the full dividend etc provided that you are holding in the right direction.

(click to expand)

sptrawler · 23 June 2013

Getting back to basics, how does Telstra cover its dividends with earnings?

Then have enough left over for R&D and expansion.

Ann · 24 June 2013

sptrawler said:
Getting back to basics, how does Telstra cover its dividends with earnings?

Then have enough left over for R&D and expansion.

I just did a quick calculation to work out TLS dividend cover and currently it is a very healthy 2.07. So there is plenty of money for a divie and TCB!

coolcup · 24 June 2013

What is TCB?

McLovin · 24 June 2013

sptrawler said:
Getting back to basics, how does Telstra cover its dividends with earnings?

Then have enough left over for R&D and expansion.

It covers it with cashflow.

Debt wouldn't be falling if the dividend wasn't being covered by the cashflow of the business.

Ann · 24 June 2013

coolcup said:
What is TCB?

TCB=Taking Care of Business

coolcup · 24 June 2013

Ann said:
TCB=Taking Care of Business

Thanks Ann. Sorry, need to get with the lingo!

Ann · 24 June 2013

coolcup said:
Thanks Ann. Sorry, need to get with the lingo!

Never any need to be sorry about asking a question of clarification, it shows intelligence Coolcup! It was originally coined by Elvis Presley who called his band TCB, short for Taking Care of Business. So it is actually a bit of a tragic term in reality!

Boggo · 24 June 2013

Ann said:
..., short for Taking Care of Business. So it is actually a bit of a tragic term in reality!

Aren't there enough tragic terms associated with company fundamentals without creating more

Ann · 24 June 2013

Boggo said:
Aren't there enough tragic terms associated with company fundamentals without creating more

Nooo it wasn't me, I am merely the messenger! *falls dead with a gun shot wound to the vitals:rippergun

and I am not overeducated i just know how to google!

EngineeringGrad · 9 July 2013

Thoughts about the Telstra share price with regards the upcoming election and half yearly dividend?

Muschu · 16 July 2013

Re: TLS - Telstra Corporationh

I find this company an investment quandary. I've profited well since the SP was around $3. Then up to $5+, down to $4.50, then up again...... At times a refuge, at others perhaps a growth opportunity.... And with a decent dividend.

I reduced our SMSF hold... But in this volatile market am considering buying back.

Any TA, FA or other thoughts are most welcome...

MrBurns · 16 July 2013

Re: TLS - Telstra Corporationh

Muschu said:
I find this company an investment quandary. I've profited well since the SP was around $3. Then up to $5+, down to $4.50, then up again...... At times a refuge, at others perhaps a growth opportunity.... And with a decent dividend.
I reduced our SMSF hold... But in this volatile market am considering buying back.
Any TA, FA or other thoughts are most welcome...

TLS is really the only stock I'm watching, I believe it's future is good but with glitches along the way.
I got out then back in again at $4.60, it's been good to me............so far.

Julia · 16 July 2013

Re: TLS - Telstra Corporationh

Muschu said:
I find this company an investment quandary. I've profited well since the SP was around $3. Then up to $5+, down to $4.50, then up again...... At times a refuge, at others perhaps a growth opportunity.... And with a decent dividend.

I reduced our SMSF hold... But in this volatile market am considering buying back.

Any TA, FA or other thoughts are most welcome...

Maybe consider what else you would be doing with the money rick.
It still has a decent yield compared with bank deposits if that were to be the alternative.
That's the only light in which I'm viewing my small holding.

Muschu · 16 July 2013

Re: TLS - Telstra Corporationh

Julia said:
Maybe consider what else you would be doing with the money rick.
It still has a decent yield compared with bank deposits if that were to be the alternative.
That's the only light in which I'm viewing my small holding.

We both understand the importance of capital preservation in retirement Julia. TLS has been brilliant for us.... If the general market becomes more bullish, and the dollar declines, it seems conceivable that investors may move elsewhere... Some may even view TLS as a shorting opportunity..... But maybe the refuge factor is accompanied by growth opportunities....

So basically I am saying I have no idea. We have reduced our hold by 75%..... And have no idea idea if that was silly or wise. But the good news is that we sold at a significant profit and that it is only money...

Best wishes

Rick

Boggo · 16 July 2013

Re: TLS - Telstra Corporationh

MrBurns said:
TLS is really the only stock I'm watching, I believe it's future is good but with glitches along the way.
I got out then back in again at $4.60, it's been good to me............so far.

Been good to me too although I haven't actually held the stock, been in and out of TLSIOI instalment warrants most of the way up and collected a few dividends along the way.

In the current market it is one of the few stocks where I am willing to use leverage (warrants) and the only warrant holding at the moment.

Its behaviour has been reasonably predictable, it got to within 2 cents of minimum turn target area before turning back up...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=4270&page=85&p=779924&viewfull=1#post779924

Projections based on the weekly chart below has a potential target area in the range 5.30 to 5.50 but I don't expect it to get there without a few minor corrections along the way.

Just my

Muschu · 17 July 2013

Thanks Boggo - and Julia once again. May be time for a little patience on my part.
And you are quite right Julia.... Where do we put our money when bank returns are so modest.
I have been using AFI and ARG as relatively safe havens. Around 4% FF.

Leveraging is not for me -- maybe if I was younger??

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