So I wasn't the only one who noticed?Now i realize why Burnsy thanked me for explaining something clearer on another thread, i thought that was kind of strange at the time.
TLS - Telstra Corporation
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Julia
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Perhaps appreciate that just because you decide to ask a question of someone, they are not obligated to respond. I ask questions all the time and don't get any replies. Some of your questions come across as intrusive and some as baiting. As a result, and since you called me a troll, I quite often have you on Ignore so don't even see your questions.
Well duh!!! Why do you think people ask the questions, fergawdsake! Because they don't know and are seeking answers. If they already had the damn knowledge base, they wouldn't be asking would they???
Sometimes, V, you can be either obtuse or obstructive, difficult to know which.
No catch 22 at all. Coolcup and Sammy both managed to read Mr Burns' question and respond in a way that provided him (and others of us also) with greater understanding. Due appreciation has been accorded them as a result.
So???
I understand that TH is only interested in communicating with those whom he feels are his equal in terms of skill and understanding of trading. That's absolutely his right and I completely respect that.
Might be good to make up your mind, Ves. Earlier you agreed that I had made some valid points.
Now, typically, you swing in the other direction and accuse me of fussing about "minor things".
Hello CanOZ, many thanks for above post. That cryptic remark (and yes I mean cryptic, Ves) seemed entirely out of character from you, hence my remarking on it.Wow, i just caught up with this thread today...i had no idea my short comment caused such a stir
Now i realize why Burnsy thanked me for explaining something clearer on another thread, i thought that was kind of strange at the time
Cheers,
CanOz
Really appreciate your clarification.
skc
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Am I right in interpreting that you put my posts in the "crypyic" category?!
I told Burns that asbestos, like McLovin was pointing out, is not what's causing the share price fall.
I put together a chart to show him how the yield trade is unwinding all over the market.
I also responded to CanOz's short post on the dollar to prompt him to post further to explain about the dollar.
In the mean time, Mr Burns could use all these information to research further answers.
No I didn't write a comprehensive respond to the qeustion with hyperlink to every terms and jargons used. But surely my posts are at least considered helpful to someone looking for answers!
Hi Julia
I have decided that this is going no where and respectfully choose not to reply. We have wasted enough time and are only going around in circles.
I am seriously re-considering my time on this forum as it appears that I spend too much time either defending myself or squabbling with others to the detriment of any constructive input I may have.
There is a certain group of posters that Burnsy and you are a part of that seems to jump to each other's defence at the drop of a hat and I find it quite intimidating.
I have decided that this is going no where and respectfully choose not to reply. We have wasted enough time and are only going around in circles.
I am seriously re-considering my time on this forum as it appears that I spend too much time either defending myself or squabbling with others to the detriment of any constructive input I may have.
There is a certain group of posters that Burnsy and you are a part of that seems to jump to each other's defence at the drop of a hat and I find it quite intimidating.
skc
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Last one...
MrBurns can you tell me if my chart illustrating the unwinding of yield trade (and hence showing asbestos wasn't the cause of TLS's fall) was helpful and prompted you to think further, or was it cryptic?
Just looking for an honest opinion to improve my communication skills. Thanks.
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It's a total waste on me I never have looked at any chart, they send me to sleep, all I want is the conclusion spelled out in plain English............if that's possible.
I really should apply myself more to all this but alas it holds no real appeal to me, all I want is the short story like many others.
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The short story is that Telstra is a business that has ZERO growth in Earnings Per Share since 2000 (having gone from 31.4 cents to 31.5 cents). During that time, EPS has ranged from 25.7 cents to 35.2 cents, spectacularly unimpressive given its dominant market share.
Therefore, the only possible reason to invest in it is to get the highly prized 28 cents dividend per year (which hasn't changed for a long time). In a rational market, the Share Price for Telstra will increase as interest rates decrease as long as confidence in the dividend payout holds. For overseas investors, a falling Australian dollar is a problem as the yield evaporates with currency losses so they will want to get out causing share price to fall.
My view, Telstra made some sense as a holding pen for some money when the price was $3 as returned about 10%. At $5, the risk of capital loss (when interest rates rise or australian dollar falls) far outweighs the 6% yield.
Admit to no longer being able to avoid TLS at $2.90 a while ago but also that was happy to get out at $3.90 as soon as I found better things to do with my money.
Therefore, the only possible reason to invest in it is to get the highly prized 28 cents dividend per year (which hasn't changed for a long time). In a rational market, the Share Price for Telstra will increase as interest rates decrease as long as confidence in the dividend payout holds. For overseas investors, a falling Australian dollar is a problem as the yield evaporates with currency losses so they will want to get out causing share price to fall.
My view, Telstra made some sense as a holding pen for some money when the price was $3 as returned about 10%. At $5, the risk of capital loss (when interest rates rise or australian dollar falls) far outweighs the 6% yield.
Admit to no longer being able to avoid TLS at $2.90 a while ago but also that was happy to get out at $3.90 as soon as I found better things to do with my money.
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Well that makes sense thanks for your insight.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Didn't someone else make the point in this thread that there are a heap of Australian "Blue Chips" that have the done the same thing? They were basically milked for yield and then dumped when the dollar tanked...?
CanOz
CanOz
Julia
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skc, I always find your posts knowledgeable and worth reading. The chart, for me, was illuminating as I'd not been paying attention across the market, being still almost entirely in cash, and - as you suggested - it demonstrated that the dreaded asbestos is not the problem. I thank you for that insight and your trouble in posting the chart.
Look, folks, I realise it's irritating to read questions that you think people should, for heaven's sake, know the answer to and difficult not to express that irritation in response. All I've been trying to say is that people don't set out to look stupid by asking questions when they actually know the answers already.
Yes, they could google the question, and I expect many do, but others will think 'this is a stock forum, and therefore where someone won't mind explaining something to me'.
I suppose, too, it's difficult to know how our remarks are going to be received. No tone of voice in a typed message to help. I remember some long time ago, as an enthusiastic gardener, being happy to offer answers to someone's questions about what would grow where. Later that person described the response as patronising, so there you go.
Dunno really. Perhaps some of us just have unrealistic expectations.
I know I am new here, but can I suggest that the moderators in this forum delete all the back and forth posts in recent days (including this one) which I felt went beyond healthy debate about a stock? The reasons for this are as follows:
1. The debate that has been going on has not really had a lot to do with TLS and more to do with personalities and communication skills
2. TLS is a very popular stock with retail investors and many new forum readers will come to this thread to read about it, particularly given recent price weakness has meant the yield looks more and more attractive. If they see the type of back and forth going on in this thread they will think that either (a) this forum is more about arguing between people rather than debate around a stock's outlook or (b) it is too scary to join and ask questions because they me find themselves in the kind of argument that has been occurring.
If this all happened in some microcap thread, I don't think it is an issue, but given the popularity of TLS I would hate to think new readers of this forum would be turned off given the back and forth banter which has carried over across several pages now.
Just my thoughts for consideration.
1. The debate that has been going on has not really had a lot to do with TLS and more to do with personalities and communication skills
2. TLS is a very popular stock with retail investors and many new forum readers will come to this thread to read about it, particularly given recent price weakness has meant the yield looks more and more attractive. If they see the type of back and forth going on in this thread they will think that either (a) this forum is more about arguing between people rather than debate around a stock's outlook or (b) it is too scary to join and ask questions because they me find themselves in the kind of argument that has been occurring.
If this all happened in some microcap thread, I don't think it is an issue, but given the popularity of TLS I would hate to think new readers of this forum would be turned off given the back and forth banter which has carried over across several pages now.
Just my thoughts for consideration.
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I think you're right all the argumentative posts serve no purpose and the thread would be more useful if they were culled.
Julia
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If you had looked at it, even briefly, you'd see skc's point, i.e. that downturn has occurred in major high yield stocks across different sectors, thus dispelling the thought that asbestos is the cause of the SP fall.
Maybe understand, Burnsie, that it's a bit disheartening for people to put up a chart which at a glance demonstrates the point when you dismiss it without consideration. You don't have to develop a whole lot of technical expertise to find a basic understanding of charts hugely helpful in stock selection, buy and sell points.
Have a look at skc's chart now, perhaps, and you will see what he is illustrating.
Agree, coolcup.
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This chart ?
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4270&p=776822&viewfull=1#post776822
That's easy, my comment was a general one about charts, some of them are very technical.
Someone else might like to confirm, but hasn't the business and capital structure changed over time so that there is higher FCF compared to times past? McLovin maybe?
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Yer...Not at home so don't have my spreadys handy but this kind of tells the story just as well...
http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttelstra/investor/financial-information/financial-summary/
FCF is calculated to the firm not to equity, so deduct ~$1.1b in interest in for FCFE.
It seems like every day there is another "expert" declaring the TLS dividend unsustainable and that it is being funded by debt. Nothing could be further from the truth, debt has been falling as the dividend was maintained.
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Just a thought. Technically speaking sometimes handles break off cups because there is a greater pattern at play. Keep your stops up to date!
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