TLS - Telstra Corporation

[MrBurns]

I would be extremely cautious of basing investment decisions on tax.

I agree and never do normally, however in this case I only want the dividend...mainly.

 

[MrBurns]

Just one point. You couldn't give a rats that the people that created the trend that you have road so nicely are possibly now doing the opposite.

Cool.

and plenty aren't..........for every share sold someone bought in..................cool.

 

[Ves]

and plenty aren't..........for every share sold someone bought in..................cool.

Burnsy.... a major sell off could be an opportunity for those looking to buy more. Of course, your thesis for the long-term still has to be accurate.

 

[McLovin]

Burnsy.... a major sell off could be an opportunity for those looking to buy more. Of course, your thesis for the long-term still has to be accurate.

A company like TLS is like the Queen Mary, it takes a long time for the business to change courses. Arguably the last managers of the business were just not steering the ship properly. That's changed now, IMO, and the SP reflects that. But with a company like TLS, there's really no need to be second guessing every rise and fall in the SP.

 

[Bintang]

I agree and never do normally, however in this case I only want the dividend...mainly.

Some people are traders hoping to make profits on the swings. Others like me and MrBurns invest for the dividends and the swings don't matter. However if the price gets bid up too high there is a point at which I would sell. That's the point at which my net after tax proceeds give me sufficient extra capital that I can put the money in a safer, lower yielding investment and achieve the same or better total income that my current TLS shares give me. As it turns out, for me that price is around $8.40 so. There is a long way to go.

 

[coolcup]

It looks as though the share price rallied ahead of itself recently and the recent correction is just a healthy pullback towards its upward sloping trading range. If it can hold at these levels, it should be a positive for the stock.

The fundamental drivers have not changed - secure yield in a low yield environment, potential upside from renegotiation with government on NBN and a management team that seem to understand the need to give capital back to shareholders.

 

[Bintang]

Oops, the glue just failed.

View attachment 52395

Ann, it may not have been a cup and handle which requires the 2 lips to be more around about the same price level.

Country Lad

I was musing on what my brother-in-law said about the scale of the charts and then I realised that your TLS chart has a much shorter time scale than the one originally posted by Ann. On the longer time scale it is definitely a cup. Anyway since it looks like the handle has just fallen off I said to my brother-in-law that the cup size is most likely a 'B' or a 'C' trying to do the job of a 'D' whereupon my wife got mad and hit me over the head with one of her saucepans.

 

[Ann]

A Cup & Handle can often be mistaken for a Rounding Bottom. The main differences are that a Cup & Handle needs to form following a decent trend (30.0%) and has to form the handle. A rounding bottom forms at lows and doesn't have to from a handle although they generally do. Basically because the right edge of the pattern hits resistance.

Also, a Cup & Handle should only take 65 weeks max to form. The pattern here for TLS started in 2007. Still, the basic shape is clear so if you have your own definition of the pattern it's not an issue.

Porper I am very familiar with C&H patterns, I have been charting for many, many years. The time scale you quote is a 'book' definition, in other words, one or two peoples' observations. I say with drawing charts it is the shape and not the time scale that is the crucial point. This I have proven to myself over and over to satisfy my own need for proof of chart shapes and outcomes.

I don't hang onto charts I draw, I draw them constantly and then float them off into the ether. Recently I was googling for an historical chart for gold and right up there I found an ancient chart I drew for a C&H swing trade calculation and had put up on a US goldbugs forum years ago. Just for fun I decided to see how I went with my swing trade calculations.... The original chart was the blue one, please note the time frame! Then please note the outcome on the yellow chart. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&p=715544&viewfull=1#post715544 The handle depth was too great because I was not concerned about drawing for a potential stop loss but merely a long term outcome for a swing trade. On TLS I drew for a potential stop loss level this time for the depth of the handle.

So far TLS is travelling exactly as I would expect it to travel, textbook reaction to the pattern description at exactly the right moment.

 

[Country Lad]

.................then I realised that your TLS chart has a much shorter time scale than the one originally posted by Ann.

Actually, my bad, sorry Ann. I was looking more at the immediate past and not as far back as Ann, whose chart I had not seen. I generally don't pay that much attention to what happened 6 years ago, but as Ann has said, a forming C&H is still quite valid for that time frame. That means of course it may take a little while for the handle to form and then to see a break from it.

Will be worthwhile watching out for it.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[Ann]

Actually, my bad, sorry Ann. I was looking more at the immediate past and not as far back as Ann, whose chart I had not seen. I generally don't pay that much attention to what happened 6 years ago, but as Ann has said, a forming C&H is still quite valid for that time frame. That means of course it may take a little while for the handle to form and then to see a break from it.

Will be worthwhile watching out for it.

Cheers
Country Lad

Actually Country Lad it is my bad, I really have to spell out the time scale of my charts in a clearer manner.

 

[Porper]

Porper I am very familiar with C&H patterns, I have been charting for many, many years. The time scale you quote is a 'book' definition.

It is a tested book definition yes, but you have to have definitive rules for any pattern if it's to be of use. Once we start saying "it looks like a Cup & Handle so it is" then pattern recognition is of little use I.M.O. Also it needs to be tested over a decent period of time. How successful is the pattern in regard to breakout rate?...Measured target?...Throwback etc. One example means nothing. Show 100 examples then we can start seeing how successful it is in reality.

It is the same for any pattern, Elliott Wave, Candlesticks or whatever your preferred method is.

 

[Ann]

It is a tested book definition yes, but you have to have definitive rules for any pattern if it's to be of use. Once we start saying "it looks like a Cup & Handle so it is" then pattern recognition is of little use I.M.O. Also it needs to be tested over a decent period of time. How successful is the pattern in regard to breakout rate?...Measured target?...Throwback etc. One example means nothing. Show 100 examples then we can start seeing how successful it is in reality.

It is the same for any pattern, Elliott Wave, Candlesticks or whatever your preferred method is.

Thomas Bulkowski clearly trades and charts to a time scale and for him the limit of 65 weeks for the evolution of a C&H is a truth/rule for his time scale.

The point I am making is not to limit the efficacy of a pattern to a particular time scale. Patterns don't grow old and doddery, patterns don't change their habits with age. Patterns are reliable regardless of the period of time they took to evolve. By their very nature a pattern is a pattern!

Having said that, I am not making any guarantees TLS will resolve in such a pleasing manner as the 2006 example I gave. I only gave that example to show there is no time limit for a pattern to form and resolve.

Will TLS resolve the way I have drawn it? In truth I am optimistic but not sure! There is a greater external pattern power of influence over TLS pattern which is giving every indication of support for a positive outcome.

As Bintang so correctly observed, handles can fall off cups and from my own experience they certainly do sometimes. Let's see!

 

[sptrawler]

Thomas Bulkowski clearly trades and charts to a time scale and for him the limit of 65 weeks for the evolution of a C&H is a truth/rule for his time scale.

The point I am making is not to limit the efficacy of a pattern to a particular time scale. Patterns don't grow old and doddery, patterns don't change their habits with age. Patterns are reliable regardless of the period of time they took to evolve. By their very nature a pattern is a pattern!

Having said that, I am not making any guarantees TLS will resolve in such a pleasing manner as the 2006 example I gave. I only gave that example to show there is no time limit for a pattern to form and resolve.

Will TLS resolve the way I have drawn it? In truth I am optimistic but not sure! There is a greater external pattern power of influence over TLS pattern which is giving every indication of support for a positive outcome.

As Bintang so correctly observed, handles can fall off cups and from my own experience they certainly do sometimes. Let's see!

That's a fantastic post to say little.

 

[MrBurns]

Must be almost time to start buying again ?

 

[Ves]

Must be almost time to start buying again ?

I doubt I'd touch it over $4 personally. Probably less.

 

[MrBurns]

I doubt I'd touch it over $4 personally. Probably less.

Wont be long at this rate

 

[Ves]

Wont be long at this rate

I think it depends on how much the dollar falls and how much this hurts the overseas investors who get hit with the double whammy of share price decline + currency devaluation.


I wouldn't say no to any kind of pain like that. It's been a slow year so far.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

It looks like some traders are jumping off the TLS bandwagon at the moment, with the asbestos in the pits issue brought to life in the last couple of days being the latest excuse.

I've held TLS shares since the T1 float but haven't really paid any attention to TLS (though I'm regretting not purchasing some when the Future Fund was selling out and talking down its prospects). Might need to do some research on TLS in the next few days.

 

[MrBurns]

It looks like some traders are jumping off the TLS bandwagon at the moment, with the asbestos in the pits issue brought to life in the last couple of days being the latest excuse.

I've held TLS shares since the T1 float but haven't really paid any attention to TLS (though I'm regretting not purchasing some when the Future Fund was selling out and talking down its prospects). Might need to do some research on TLS in the next few days.

I just sold out yesterday, the asbestos scare, real or not is an issue and the exit of money from Australia generally.
I'll go back in when it settles down.

 

[Bintang]

I just sold out yesterday, the asbestos scare, real or not is an issue and the exit of money from Australia generally.
I'll go back in when it settles down.

The period from now until August is normally the 'seasonal' upswing in TLS as people start salivating over the next 14c dividend (next ex-divdidend date 19Aug13). It will be interesting to see how the opposing forces of this upswing, the asbestos negative sentiment and the exit of foreign money play out. I think the price will bounce around close to its current level for a while and possibly go as low as 4.50. After that it should move back into the range 5.00 to 5.10 just prior to 19Aug. IMO.