TLS - Telstra Corporation

[MrBurns]

Anyone think of any particular reason TLS is in free fall ?

I thought the restructure toward wireless and expansion into Asia was a good thing ?

 

[prawn_86]

Anyone think of any particular reason TLS is in free fall ??

As skyquake mentioned in a different thread. General sentiment away from yield and probable cashing in on profits by overseas investors. See the AUD chart also for Australian hours selling pressure

 

[Knobby22]

It's not just Telstra. it's all high dividend shares.
Mortgage Choice for instance has also dropped substantially. I think it is people scared of the $A falling, moving their money offshore.

 

[MrBurns]

As skyquake mentioned in a different thread. General sentiment away from yield and probable cashing in on profits by overseas investors. See the AUD chart also for Australian hours selling pressure

Ah yes I posted something on that myself, people moving away from yield in anticipation of higher interest rates ?

Seemed a bit odd to me.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Seemed a bit odd to me.

Only because its against you.

 

[sammy84]

Only because its against you.

Haha.

Did it seem odd when Telstra was running hot as a yield play?

 

[MrBurns]

Only because its against you.

Haha.

Did it seem odd when Telstra was running hot as a yield play?

No it's seems odd that people are thinking rates will rise.............sorry to spoil your nasty shots.

 

[Ann]

Anyone think of any particular reason TLS is in free fall ?

I thought the restructure toward wireless and expansion into Asia was a good thing ?

Hello MrBurns, the market as a whole is retracing and consolidating, a very healthy sign. It is testing a long term support/resistance line at the moment. It may fail to hold to the line but it is still fine and all good, it may be looking for support from a rising support line. On my chart for TLS I put up a little while ago you may have noticed I drew in a period of retracement in order to form the 'handle' for the 'cup and handle' chart pattern. This may be the start of the handle and absolutely nothing to give you any concerns...very healthy, very good sign! Here is a link to the chart so you can see what is happening at the moment was totally foreseeable and desireable. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4270&p=770395&viewfull=1#post770395

 

[Trembling Hand]

No it's seems odd that people are thinking rates will rise.............sorry to spoil your nasty shots.

Its not odd to think that the yield has reached a point where the risk to reward doesn't favour more inflows in the same direction, especially carry trade type trades as the AUD takes it in the neck and capital is at risk. My point being that you are blind to why capital is flowing out of what has been a one way trade for some time because you have such a stake in it to keep going in said straight line.

 

[Bintang]

Hello MrBurns, the market as a whole is retracing and consolidating, a very healthy sign. It is testing a long term support/resistance line at the moment. It may fail to hold to the line but it is still fine and all good, it may be looking for support from a rising support line. On my chart for TLS I put up a little while ago you may have noticed I drew in a period of retracement in order to form the 'handle' for the 'cup and handle' chart pattern. This may be the start of the handle and absolutely nothing to give you any concerns...very healthy, very good sign! Here is a link to the chart so you can see what is happening at the moment was totally foreseeable and desireable. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4270&p=770395&viewfull=1#post770395

Hope the handle is glued on strongly. They can break off sometimes you know - especially if the cup was too full.

 

[McLovin]

No it's seems odd that people are thinking rates will rise.............sorry to spoil your nasty shots.

It's not about rates it's about rate of return. TLS is a low growth company. At the moment on a grossed up basis it's yielding 8%. Granted there's a bit more visibility earnings wise than there was a few years ago but it's still not a growth stock and most of the return will remain in the dividend. An 8%-9% return seems about fair value.

Of course if rates go to Euro/US style levels then it will get further bid up but that's just punters chasing yield rather than any endorsement of the company.

Under $3 it had a great divvie and a bit of growth to give not a bad return, now it's really just the domain of those who have been flushed out of term deposits and want yield. I've pulled in about 65% capital growth + another 56c in dividends. That rate of return is hardly sustainable.

 

[CanOz]

Hello MrBurns, the market as a whole is retracing and consolidating, a very healthy sign. It is testing a long term support/resistance line at the moment. It may fail to hold to the line but it is still fine and all good, it may be looking for support from a rising support line. On my chart for TLS I put up a little while ago you may have noticed I drew in a period of retracement in order to form the 'handle' for the 'cup and handle' chart pattern. This may be the start of the handle and absolutely nothing to give you any concerns...very healthy, very good sign! Here is a link to the chart so you can see what is happening at the moment was totally foreseeable and desireable. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4270&p=770395&viewfull=1#post770395

Its 50/50 Ann...but at least Burnsy can have an exit point...

CanOz

 

[MARKETWINNER]

Today I saw following links on Telstra. It is time analyze this company again due to new development.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/telstra-cuts-jobs-amid-bleak-outlook-20130522-2k1da.html

Telstra cuts jobs amid bleak outlook

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/motley/8663480/telstra-shares-hit-eight-year-high

Telstra-shares-hit-eight-year-high

 

[Ann]

Hope the handle is glued on strongly. They can break off sometimes you know - especially if the cup was too full.

Many a true word spoken in jest Bintang! I have seen them fall off on many an occassion!

Its 50/50 Ann...but at least Burnsy can have an exit point...

CanOz

So you are saying there is many a slip between the cup and the lip CanOz?:

 

[MrBurns]

My point being that you are blind to why capital is flowing out of what has been a one way trade for some time because you have such a stake in it to keep going in said straight line.

Wrong again, I pretty we'll couldn't give a rats I'm well in profit and wouldn't be selling anyway for tax reasons, but I was curious on the interest rate front.
You are way too presumptious about people's motives and circumstances.

 

[herzy]

Wrong again, I pretty we'll couldn't give a rats I'm well in profit and wouldn't be selling anyway for tax reasons, but I was curious on the interest rate front.
You are way too presumptious about people's motives and circumstances.

I would be extremely cautious of basing investment decisions on tax.

 

[Porper]

Just thought I would throw in a chart showing a potential Cup and Handle pattern on TLS. The cup is complete, it needs a bit of a pullback to form the handle. Should it resolve into this chart shape, I did the swing trade calculations for it and can see $8.40 being the target price.

Let's see!

A Cup & Handle can often be mistaken for a Rounding Bottom. The main differences are that a Cup & Handle needs to form following a decent trend (30.0%) and has to form the handle. A rounding bottom forms at lows and doesn't have to from a handle although they generally do. Basically because the right edge of the pattern hits resistance.

Also, a Cup & Handle should only take 65 weeks max to form. The pattern here for TLS started in 2007. Still, the basic shape is clear so if you have your own definition of the pattern it's not an issue.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Wrong again, I pretty we'll couldn't give a rats.

Just one point. You couldn't give a rats that the people that created the trend that you have road so nicely are possibly now doing the opposite.

Cool.

 

[Country Lad]

Hope the handle is glued on strongly. They can break off sometimes you know - especially if the cup was too full.

Oops, the glue just failed.





Ann, it may not have been a cup and handle which requires the 2 lips to be more around about the same price level. This may be a better example.





Cheers
Country Lad

 

[Bintang]

Oops, the glue just failed.

View attachment 52395



Ann, it may not have been a cup and handle which requires the 2 lips to be more around about the same price level. This may be a better example.



View attachment 52396

Cheers
Country Lad

Amazing the difference of opinions here. CL I showed your lower chart to my wife and she said, "rubbish, can't you see it's a saucepan" and I showed Ann's original chart to my brother-in-law who agreed that it is a cup but he said, "I can't figure out from the scale of the chart whether it's a C-cup or a D-cup".