TLS - Telstra Corporation

[MrBurns]

I'm with you rick or worse I think, I dont undersand any of it and am impressed by the knowledge expressed by tinhat and boggo, have either of you guys ever lost on the market ?

 

[Boggo]

Yes, lose all the time mr burns, over 60% of last years trades were losers but I still had over 23% profit for the FY.
Gotta be in it to win it and don't hold on to losers, simple concept really.

 

[MrBurns]

Yes, lose all the time mr burns, over 60% of last years trades were losers but I still had over 23% profit for the FY.
Gotta be in it to win it and don't hold on to losers, simple concept really.

I've often wondered how you can get in and out so quickly, what/how do you do that ?, broker ? online ?

 

[tinhat]

I'm with you rick or worse I think, I dont undersand any of it and am impressed by the knowledge expressed by tinhat and boggo, have either of you guys ever lost on the market ?

I'm not a trader. I'm mainly managing a SMSF that lost a lot of money during the GFC before I took over running it. This SMSF is paying a pension to my mother which she lives off. I've got my super in there too in accumulation and I also manage a growing personal portfolio outside of the super fund.

Although by the time I got my hands on the SMSF most of the 2009 recovery had already happened, I still had to sell shares that were still haemorrhaging badly. Actually, at first, based on external advice, I was fairly hands off and was hoping that the SMSF share portfolio would organically repair itself to a large degree.

At this stage having just organised transfer of the SMSF holdings to a new trustees, I had only just learnt what a HIN was, what a Chess statement was, and capital gains tax works, how franking credits work. The SMSF had only had one previous tax return and I didn't know where to find the cost bases for the shares currently in the portfolio.

Then I watched MQG (the largest holding in the portfolio) start to slide in May 2010. I was aware that the business outlook and balance sheet weren't good for MQG and I realised I had to do something proactive even though I didn't know what to do. Other examples of substantial shareholdings that were on the slide are PPT, AMP, MQG, SIP. I didn't start actively picking stocks until November 2010 (with the exception of RIO which I bought at about $63 earlier in 2010) and that was a bit late in the cycle for an inexperienced investor like myself to be entering positions.

I've made plenty of mistakes in only eighteen months. Mainly because I've been using fundamental analysis and value investing without understanding market sentiment and market momentum. Where to start?

OZL & PNA - Bought too late into the cycle, paid too much and held too long past the peak last year.

RCG - bought not long after the top early last year and never put a stop on it. Share price has been falling ever since. Complete disaster.

MCE - despite taking profits on the way up managed to still turn this into a loss.

IIN, WEB, RMD - bought but sold because their share prices were going nowhere only to subsequently see them rally once I got out (sometimes a long time after).

MML, HZN - happy to be holding both of these for the medium term (next couple of years) but didn't time entry and could have picked them up or even dollar averaged in over time at much lower prices.

EQN - automatic stop-loss got triggered not long before they got taken over. Lost out on the upside.

MGX - loss.

TSM - disaster.

TGA - caught a falling knife. Didn't pay attention to the price momentum when purchased. Out of the money.

IPL, PEM - out of the money.

I've sat on losses when I could have freed up money to jump on rising stocks that were on my watch list such as SUP, SLR, CCP, the list goes on.

Fortunately, I've done reasonably well at limiting positions sizes, so although my more speculative capital growth trades have been poorly managed, I've done a lot better at managing the income portfolio where most of the money is and used the 2011 slump to rebalance and lock in some great yields (CBA, ANZ, TLS, ASZ, GZL, GUD, IUL).

I'm one of those people who needs to experience things viscerally to learn well. So although I've been through some pain and anxiety it's helped me to identify my deficiencies and weaknesses and to distil what I have learnt and crystallise certain rules which, to my amazement, I still seem to break.

 

[MrBurns]

Very interesting tinhat, I had Fairfax, out of that in a hurry, bought the banks before they tanked, now out of them, CSS got no where got out, had MSB for ages, nothing doing then then when they rose a bit I got out, not long after they trippled in price.

I dont have any shares at present was tempted by TLS in the last month but didnt act now it's too late I think.

I'll just watch ans wait, for what I don't know.

 

[Boggo]

I've often wondered how you can get in and out so quickly, what/how do you do that ?, broker ? online ?

Not so much a case of getting in or out quickly, more a case of having plan/method and applying it.
Go back to my post on March 24th for TLS, one example of entry and exit etc all in front of you before you enter.

In the current market you just have to be active, the old buy and sit back with visions of retirement will most likely result in a bottom drawer bigger than a swimming pool full of "bargain at this price" stocks with great dividend yields !

Marcus Padley summed it up on TV a few weeks ago when he said that this is a traders market, not an investors market.

(We are starting to get off topic here and I think I can predict the outcome if we don't get back to TLS )

 

[Boggo]

and is now making its way towards the Primary target of 3.58.

Hovering around your target today Frank

From an EW approach it is just on top of the min zone, typical zone around 3.70 is next target to aim for.
(click to expand)

 

[Muschu]

In this market, as a retiree, TLS has been "friendly". Doesn't mean it will stay that way of course but good at the moment.

 

[MrBurns]

In this market, as a retiree, TLS has been "friendly". Doesn't mean it will stay that way of course but good at the moment.

I was thinking of going in hard on TLS some weeks ago, but stalled and have watched it climb ever since.
Will wait now for other things to unfold, the market generally, the elsction which could be on at any moment, just some opportunity, there always is isnt there.

 

[Muschu]

.....Will wait now for other things to unfold, the market generally, the elsction which could be on at any moment, just some opportunity, there always is isnt there.

How will you recognise and identify the moment / opportunity ? I am not being cynical as I hope you know.

 

[MrBurns]

How will you recognise and identify the moment / opportunity ? I am not being cynical as I hope you know.

Rick, I usually cross check gut feel with what I see and hear, in the case of TLS I saw it but didnt act because I thought...."naaa I must have missed something"

Interest rate cut looked very likely, TLS dividend guaranteed going forward, TLS will have a bucket load of cash.
It was a no brianer but I just didnt trust my own judement.
In the past I had a bundle of spec stocks which got no where and that put me off somewhat.

Nothing else in shares really excites me too much, I think the banks are at some risk, certainly the miners are, even Coles and defensive stocks wont stand up in a severe downturn and I think thats on the cards.

 

[Muschu]

Rick, I usually cross check gut feel with what I see and hear, in the case of TLS I saw it but didnt act because I thought...."naaa I must have missed something"

Interest rate cut looked very likely, TLS dividend guaranteed going forward, TLS will have a bucket load of cash.
It was a no brianer but I just didnt trust my own judement.
In the past I had a bundle of spec stocks which got no where and that put me off somewhat.

Nothing else in shares really excites me too much, I think the banks are at some risk, certainly the miners are, even Coles and defensive stocks wont stand up in a severe downturn and I think thats on the cards.

Thanks Mr B. I appreciate your comments.

 

[MrBurns]

Thanks Mr B. I appreciate your comments.

There's no expertise in my reasons for buying and I'm always very cautious, or pessimistic more likely.

 

[Frank D]

TLS Primary and Weekly cycles

Primary target for 2012 reached @ 3.58...

and if you know my work using the lesser patterns in the Weekly cycles:- break
and extend patterns breakout of the April high @ 3.33 extends towards the
MAY high.

Therefore, the completion of the break and extend pattern along with the
Primary target being reach...

And I believe that TLS has found its high for 2012, and will likely to struggle
to move higher for the rest of the year unless it revisits it's 3-month lows over
the next couple of Quarters.

I could be wrong, but the weekly 50% levels @ 3.51 should now be used to define how the short-term trends play out.

 

[starman45]

Tls: beautiful climb. Now the stock is in the area of strong resistance 3.6. This is an area of ​​target. I think you have to wait for their first wins to go long, or wait for a retracement, but is more risky because it could turn into a good opportunity for sellers.
Good weekend to all!

 

[Boggo]

Tls: beautiful climb. Now the stock is in the area of strong resistance 3.6.

Typical Wave 5 is in the range 3.68 to 3.76. Both TS4's (ABC corrections) have been spot on.
It has played by the rules nicely so far, a nice correction would provide an opportunity to overlap another run up when it does run out of steam.

(click to expand)

 

[starman45]

Typical Wave 5 is in the range 3.68 to 3.76. Both TS4's (ABC corrections) have been spot on.
It has played by the rules nicely so far, a nice correction would provide an opportunity to overlap another run up when it does run out of steam.

(click to expand)

On the monthly chart, we see that it is strong resistance.

 

[MrBurns]

The market goes down TLS continues up, I guess it's a safe haven ?

 

[McCoy Pauley]

TLS' guaranteed dividend acts means an investment in TLS is almost like buying bonds. Not surprising that spooked investors rush to TLS in troubled times.

 

[MrBurns]

TLS' guaranteed dividend acts means an investment in TLS is almost like buying bonds. Not surprising that spooked investors rush to TLS in troubled times.

With the likelihood of rates falling further it may keep rising.