TLS - Telstra Corporation

Calliope · 25 February 2011

Between 7 Jan and 24 Feb the Future fund has sold 255,042,430 TLS shares. In this period their holding was reduced from 7.8% to 5.75%.

They really know how to kick the a*se out of mum and dad shareholders. On the positive side I think the price has stood up reasonably well in the face of this onslaught, but the Future Fund menace will be a brake on the price while they are a significant shareholder, which hopefully, won't be much longer. The day they become a spent force the price will climb.

TheAbyss · 25 February 2011

Calliope said:
Between 7 Jan and 24 Feb the Future fund has sold 255,042,430 TLS shares. In this period their holding was reduced from 7.8% to 5.75%.

They really know how to kick the a*se out of mum and dad shareholders. On the positive side I think the price has stood up reasonably well in the face of this onslaught, but the Future Fund menace will be a brake on the price while they are a significant shareholder, which hopefully, won't be much longer. The day they become a spent force the price will climb.

Why do you think they will climb? No gain in margins or revenue that i can see.

Sure, the future fund will no longer need to report on share sales once they are less than a 5% holder but that doesnt mean TLS are worth any more per share than today. FF are overweight TLS so have are provided some sort of base for the SP for quite awhile. the fact that they have removed their support due to whatever filters they are using doesnt entitle TLS to a SP increase.

In fact you could ponder whether the Future Fund leaving will remove what was once a floor for the share price? perhaps they will fall faster on bad news?

Calliope · 25 February 2011

TheAbyss said:
In fact you could ponder whether the Future Fund leaving will remove what was once a floor for the share price? perhaps they will fall faster on bad news?

Well, you can ponder that. In my opinion the overhang has been a brake on the price reaching its true value. Time will tell.

McCoy Pauley · 25 February 2011

TheAbyss said:
Why do you think they will climb? No gain in margins or revenue that i can see.

Sure, the future fund will no longer need to report on share sales once they are less than a 5% holder but that doesnt mean TLS are worth any more per share than today. FF are overweight TLS so have are provided some sort of base for the SP for quite awhile. the fact that they have removed their support due to whatever filters they are using doesnt entitle TLS to a SP increase.

In fact you could ponder whether the Future Fund leaving will remove what was once a floor for the share price? perhaps they will fall faster on bad news?

The theory is that the Future Fund have been known by all and sundry as extremely willing sellers so that there is plenty of supply of TLS stock in the past few months. As that stock dries up with the FF selling out, the theory predicts that the share price should climb.

As a holder of TLS since the first float, I think there's been some encouraging signs from Thodey in the past couple of months that he's beginning to imprint his mark on the company. It's probably taken him the best part of 12 months to erase the influence of the three Amigos on the company's direction and to set his own direction.

I would like to see TLS retain as many of its new mobile subscribers as possible on higher margins. It's one thing to attract almost 1 million new subscribers, but it's another thing to convince those subscribers to stick with their provider as prices rise. Hopefully, Vodafone's issues over the past few months knocks their competitive capability around a little bit.

TheAbyss · 25 February 2011

McCoy Pauley said:
The theory is that the Future Fund have been known by all and sundry as extremely willing sellers so that there is plenty of supply of TLS stock in the past few months. As that stock dries up with the FF selling out, the theory predicts that the share price should climb.

As a holder of TLS since the first float, I think there's been some encouraging signs from Thodey in the past couple of months that he's beginning to imprint his mark on the company. It's probably taken him the best part of 12 months to erase the influence of the three Amigos on the company's direction and to set his own direction.

I would like to see TLS retain as many of its new mobile subscribers as possible on higher margins. It's one thing to attract almost 1 million new subscribers, but it's another thing to convince those subscribers to stick with their provider as prices rise. Hopefully, Vodafone's issues over the past few months knocks their competitive capability around a little bit.

David Thodey is a breath of fresh air and loves technology and the company he works for. I know this from personal experience and whilst i don't eny him his job, am quietly cheering him on.

Mobile customers are traditionally difficult to retain however Telstra have the coverage to keep the customers and finally have recognised that they need to be price competitive to get the customers in teh first place.

Currently Optus sale speople are hurting because not only do Telstra have the best coverage they are now matching Optus and co for price.

They are winning the mobile battle and the assoicated data sales that come with that.

Still they need to not only need to stop losing market share, they need to show growth which is what i dont see. Stopping the bleeding isnt even half the battle form a shareholders perspective. Growth in earnings per share is required and it needs to be better than other stocks available or the SP will suffer some more.

The FF overhang is real and potentially restricting the SP but i dont like excuses. if TLS were showing growth then the FF wouldnt be selling in the first place.

Good luck to holders (which i am not one of)

BrightGreenGlow · 26 February 2011

Telstra Dividend and NBN play
Initial Capital: $20,000
Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
======================
Current SP: $2.82
Market Value: $20,287
======================
Gain since play: $287
Dividend since play: $1,007
======================
Total gain/loss: $1,294

Roughly 5+% so far.

BrightGreenGlow · 26 February 2011

TheAbyss said:
Why do you think they will climb? No gain in margins or revenue that i can see.

Sure, the future fund will no longer need to report on share sales once they are less than a 5% holder but that doesnt mean TLS are worth any more per share than today. FF are overweight TLS so have are provided some sort of base for the SP for quite awhile. the fact that they have removed their support due to whatever filters they are using doesnt entitle TLS to a SP increase.

In fact you could ponder whether the Future Fund leaving will remove what was once a floor for the share price? perhaps they will fall faster on bad news?

I don't know about you mate but generally pressure on mass selling leads to a decrease in SP usually. Therefore, good change the SP will rise once the FF is done. Very simple to understand. They aren't holding the floor they are tearing it away whenever we start to see nice growth. I still don't know how the government/FF got away with insider trading with Telstra... very disappointing.

sptrawler · 28 February 2011

I think all the posturing by you guys is distracting from the main game. I would not be suprised if Telstra isn't allowed to keep a lot of it's infrastructure in operation to provide a service to the unemployed, pensioners and anybody else that just wants a telephone service thats works when the power drops off HELLO.
Also the "cherry picking" clause Conroy wants put in is exactly what he argued TELSTRA couldn't have when they wanted to stop the other carriers jumping on TELSTRAS back to cherry pick high population areas. The problem is Conroy thinks the electorate is stupid, what he forgets is a lot of them were Telstra mum and dad buyers or their families. This is becomming a bigger stuffup than the home insulation.Don't want to be political but you can't change the playing field to support your ideoligy, just makes everyone angry.

nulla nulla · 28 February 2011

TheAbyss said:
......The FF overhang is real and potentially restricting the SP but i dont like excuses. if TLS were showing growth then the FF wouldnt be selling in the first place.

The FF needed to sell down a component of it's holding in tls to broaden it's investment portfolio rather than just hold tls. Whether it needed to sell down tls to the extent it is, is another question. The negative outlook of the FF in a major shareholder is something tls doesn't need and will be well rid of when it is gone.

BrightGreenGlow · 4 March 2011

Telstra Dividend and NBN play
Initial Capital: $20,000
Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
======================
Current SP: $2.81
Market Value: $20,215
======================
Gain since play: $215
Dividend since play: $1,007
======================
Total gain/loss: $1,222

TheAbyss · 9 March 2011

Now that the dividend play is over this is back on the downtrend. Interest will be whether it bounces off the Nov 2010 low of $2.55 or goes through to start making lower lows.

Sure the FF are still selling but this has been going down since its high of May, 2007 so to blame FF is only a short term view imo.

BrightGreenGlow · 9 March 2011

TheAbyss said:
Now that the dividend play is over this is back on the downtrend. Interest will be whether it bounces off the Nov 2010 low of $2.55 or goes through to start making lower lows.

Sure the FF are still selling but this has been going down since its high of May, 2007 so to blame FF is only a short term view imo.

THis is very true, the popularity of TLS is bad but IMHO this is on the improve and the 24 plans have been great for TLS just gotta wait for the next report and I can only see TLS's SP rising towards end June for the NBN vote. What do you guys think?

Bintang · 9 March 2011

BrightGreenGlow said:
THis is very true, the popularity of TLS is bad but IMHO this is on the improve and the 24 plans have been great for TLS just gotta wait for the next report and I can only see TLS's SP rising towards end June for the NBN vote. What do you guys think?

I am going to accumulate all the way down. I have a large holding of TLS which I acquired at an average price of $2.72. As it goes lower I will just acquire more. In fact if it goes below $2.55 I'll happily pick up a lot more.

BrightGreenGlow · 9 March 2011

Bintang said:
I am going to accumulate all the way down. I have a large holding of TLS which I acquired at an average price of $2.72. As it goes lower I will just acquire more. In fact if it goes below $2.55 I'll happily pick up a lot more.

You make money by beating the market. I think you are going about it the right way! Just fingers crossed NBN goes through and those plans keep selling which I think they are judging by the people I talk with.

TheAbyss · 9 March 2011

BrightGreenGlow said:
THis is very true, the popularity of TLS is bad but IMHO this is on the improve and the 24 plans have been great for TLS just gotta wait for the next report and I can only see TLS's SP rising towards end June for the NBN vote. What do you guys think?

I see the current plans as having a degree of success and look forward to the SP downtrend to cease on the back of this. What i dont see is how the trend reverses and capital growth begins.

More likely in my view is a halt of the downtrend at some point and a new trading range is found. That by no means indicates TLS SP will get back to circa $4.00 in the foresable future. Their market is shrinking all the time due to GOVT and ACCC rulings around level playing fields etc (which are bordering on restraint of trade in some areas imo).

Some good news on NBN will be a panacea for TLS and may put a halt to the downtrend for a while and buy some time for Thodeys plans to show some success.

SP will overshoot to the downside then come back up onto a range and fluctuate for 12 months but where that range is, is yet to be seen

Frank D · 9 March 2011

TLS

TLS is back into support levels @ 2.73, but the cycle remains weak as
it's trading below the March 50% level @ 2.84.

If you are holding longs on TLS, you don't want to see TLS trading below
these levels in the 3rd month of the Quarter, as it can follow a larger
trend down towards 2.48

BrightGreenGlow · 9 March 2011

Whoops double post. Joe can you delete. Sorry guys

nulla nulla · 9 March 2011

Frank D said:
TLS

TLS is back into support levels @ 2.73, but the cycle remains weak as
it's trading below the March 50% level @ 2.84.

If you are holding longs on TLS, you don't want to see TLS trading below
these levels in the 3rd month of the Quarter, as it can follow a larger
trend down towards 2.48

I see the support level at $2.55....if....it continues to slide.
I can't see the reason for the slide to the current level and i am hesitant to top up (in case it slides further) however if it gets back to the $2.55 - $2.60 levels, I will talk to the margin lenders to take a long term stake. Just my perspective but imo tls is getting kicked arround by everyone from the ACCC to the Future Fund and is worth more than the current price level.

drsmith · 10 March 2011

BrightGreenGlow said:
Telstra Dividend and NBN play
Initial Capital: $20,000
Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
======================
Current SP: $2.81
Market Value: $20,215
======================
Gain since play: $215
Dividend since play: $1,007
======================
Total gain/loss: $1,222

A few corrections to the above pre-tax figures need to be considered.

1) Brokerage and GST on the purchase and ultimately on the sale.

Obviously not much in terms of the invested capital, but still needs to be included for accurate calculation of gain, realised or unrealised.

2) $432 of imputation credits (6 cents per share) flowing from the 14 cent dividend.

While these tax credits are not paid into your bank account, they do represent income from the shares.

3) Opportunity cost from having the initial capital (~$20k) invested elsewhere.

For example, 6% pa is easily available from cash, so this needs to be deducted from the total gain/loss to calculate the difference between the investment in TLS and cash.

BrightGreenGlow · 10 March 2011

drsmith said:
A few corrections to the above pre-tax figures need to be considered.

1) Brokerage and GST on the purchase and ultimately on the sale.

Obviously not much in terms of the invested capital, but still needs to be included for accurate calculation of gain, realised or unrealised.

2) $432 of imputation credits (6 cents per share) flowing from the 14 cent dividend.

While these tax credits are not paid into your bank account, they do represent income from the shares.

3) Opportunity cost from having the initial capital (~$20k) invested elsewhere.

For example, 6% pa is easily available from cash, so this needs to be deducted from the total gain/loss to calculate the difference between the investment in TLS and cash.

This is very true, I just wanted to keep it very simple though.

TLS - Telstra Corporation

Calliope

TheAbyss

Calliope

McCoy Pauley

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BrightGreenGlow

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sptrawler

nulla nulla

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