Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

TLS - Telstra Corporation

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Watching Charlie Aitken from Southern Cross Equities on Lateline Business tonight.
When asked for an opinion as to which company could surprise on the upside, he nominated Telstra.
Depends though on whether the Future Fund will stop selling their holding on market.
Have off loaded about 1% of TLS stock on the market in the last month.
IMO this is the only thing holding down the stock price.
And how many other companies will pay 10% pa ff this reporting season ?
 
drsmith said:
The following could be the reason behind the recent "slight" share price rally.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...report-pd20110207-DTREF?OpenDocument&src=hp16

On recent history, a report without a downgrade will be a suprise.
Click to expand...

Yep, it would be a surprise, though Thodey has done fairly well in preparing the market for the downgrade on revenue. The market won't want to see a decline faster than that predicted by Thodey, though.

Kohler wrote about Thodey coming back from his Christmas holidays a changed man (for the better), according to his sources inside Telstra. Moving on the last of Sol Trujillo's guard seems to have energised Thodey to fully take control of the company, according to Kohler's article in the Eureka Report.
 
Bill M said:
My thoughts are the same. Those divi's will have paid for my stock soon. What's the saying? "The stockmarket is all about transfer of money from the impatient to the patient."
Click to expand...

This is very true and since the dividend was said to be secure for another 1.5 years TLS can drop 14 +14 +14 = 42c and we all come out even steven.... but it's undervalued and change is in the air... just ring them and find out you'll actually talk to an operator within 2 minutes.

Mobile subscriptions will be something to watch for guys... also bundles slash bigbond sales! From my own small world up here in NQ I see a lot of people changing over to TLS again... just depends if it's just here or all around Australia.... Thursday should be interesting indeed.
 
Profit will be within 5% of previous guidance, but not up.
Formal arrangements with NBN announced. Mostly factored into share price.
Dividend $0.14 fully franked.
Further downgrade in future financial performance.
Share price slightly lower on the close and declining over subsequent days. New low ex-dividend.

That's my guess.
 
Hope you are wrong dr smith, it would be a disaster if they are not getting any traction with stopping the exodus of subscibers.
My gut feeling is there is a little bit of panic happening with the other carriers, they are desperate to lock people in to new 2 year contracts, also the contracts aren't as attractive. Quite a few of my aquaintances are changing to Telstra, despite me not being with them.:D
There is one thing for sure Thursday will set the trend for Telstras future share price, so hold your breath it should be an interesting ride.
 
drsmith said:
Profit will be within 5% of previous guidance, but not up.
Formal arrangements with NBN announced. Mostly factored into share price.
Dividend $0.14 fully franked.
Further downgrade in future financial performance.
Share price slightly lower on the close and declining over subsequent days. New low ex-dividend.

That's my guess.
Click to expand...

The NBN has not been factored in. I believe we might be an upturn.

Hope you're wrong and Im right but who knows? Cant wait till tomorrow though! Should be announced by midday???
 
Just about as expected, I think. Sales revenue for the half was down 0.5% compared to 1H10. EBITDA was down 12.5% for the half compared to 1H10. TLS is certainly gaining traction in the market at the expense of margin. Customer base for mobiles, etc, grew seemingly considerably in 1H11.

It also looks like TLS has reached a broad agreement with the Govt on the NBN, and that TLS aims to test the shareholders on 1 July 2011 on the agreement.
 
Conroy has given a press conference five minutes ago confirming that a deal has been struck with TLS on the roll-out of the NBN.
 
More interesting was they gained nearly 1 million new mobile customers and they will be money in the bank fir the next two years. Good job Telstra. Bit of a pitty they had a big spending spree last year. Good result but not the best. Also once again awesome broadband subscription rates. :). Hopefully nbn deal by Oct maybe?
 
sptrawler said:
There is one thing for sure Thursday will set the trend for Telstras future share price, so hold your breath it should be an interesting ride.
Click to expand...

IMO until the overhang of shares held by the Future Fund is cleared, the price will continue to be held in check.
 
nulla nulla said:
IMO until the overhang of shares held by the Future Fund is cleared, the price will continue to be held in check.
Click to expand...

Agreed. If you have any interest in the share market, you'd have to have been deaf over the last six months not to hear about the Future Fund's decision to sell out TLS. Until the Future Fund completely sells out of TLS, there will be a hand-brake on whatever capital growth there might be on the company.
 
How do you propose that a business with steadily declining profits and steadily increasing costs to obtain that business actually improve their bottom line?

Their cash cow was the fixed business which is being eroded daily, they are replacing some of this with mobile business however that is a less than loyal client base with high costs to obtain and retain those customers.

The data side of things was looking good (Nextg) but margins are low due to competition.

Add to that the unions demands are high for the labour force that internal costs are massive when compared to other carriers. that isnt to say the unions are not necessary just that they have been adding a premium to every expense for so long now the only real way out for Telstra is to do a QR and fully privatise then sack a swag and reemploy at realistic rates and have the staff work to sustainable KPI's.

Where do they improve their bottom line? Yes they will get a 10-14 $b windfall from their infrastructure sale via the NBN howveer that only defers the inevitable and allows the dividend to contiue for a while longer.

If you cant make similar gains with less capital risk elsewhere in this market then your eyes are closed or your fear of risk is so great you should employ a broker imo.

Death, taxes and a lower TLS share price are certainties in life.:2twocents
 
TheAbyss

If you cant make similar gains with less capital risk elsewhere in this market then your eyes are closed or your fear of risk is so great you should employ a broker imo.

Your comments are very interesting. Must admist I am looking at TLS right now based on the divi but would be very interested to hear any alternative options you may have.

thanks
Ian
 
TheAbyss
Many thanks. That is indeed interesting stuff.
But as the Investment Blog spells out, TLS is one of the main dividend performing stocks. However I take your point about the mix of both growth and Divi. It's hard to tell with TLS isn't it.
Never the less, thanks again
Ian
 
Shot up quickly today on low volume then came down slowly on large volume. For every seller there was a buyer, hopefully the Future Fund further reduced their overhang.
 
Telstra Dividend and NBN play
Initial Capital: $20,000
Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
======================
Current SP: $2.91
Market Value: $20,935
======================
Gain since play: $935

This is on the back of their recent subscription increases, minimal profit slump, NBN deal closing in and another massive 14c dividend. Exciting times for Telstra.

Watch for the next profit release.... 1 million mobile subscribers is massive news and has been an underrated fact of their report. Not only is this figure growing hard, the growth would generally be locked in for 2 years. :) Awesome week for Telstra!
 
BrightGreenGlow said:
Telstra Dividend and NBN play
Initial Capital: $20,000
Shares Bought: 7194 @ $2.78
======================
Current SP: $2.91
Market Value: $20,935
======================
Gain since play: $935

This is on the back of their recent subscription increases, minimal profit slump, NBN deal closing in and another massive 14c dividend. Exciting times for Telstra.

Watch for the next profit release.... 1 million mobile subscribers is massive news and has been an underrated fact of their report. Not only is this figure growing hard, the growth would generally be locked in for 2 years. :) Awesome week for Telstra!
Click to expand...

Things are looking better than they have for a long time for TLS but too many unknowns for my money.

Will increased market share = increased profits?

Will they stop borrowing to pay dividends?

Can the culture be turned around?

Will a change of govt honour NBN deal? - remember we have a hung parliment.

What will competition do? Sit around and let TLS steal market share?
 

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