TLS - Telstra Corporation

[Bronte]

Re: Where will TLS head???

Plenty of twists and turns on this stock.
Divi 26th Sept.

 

[Yippyio]

Re: Where will TLS head???

Watch TLS go today, should put on 1 or 2% now that it is over the line. All focus will be on T3 and building shareholder value.

 

[Joe Blow]

Re: Where will TLS head???

Telstra is getting sold down heavily today. At the moment it's at $4.10, down almost 5% and looking very weak. Went ex-div today, so obviously that's a factor.

Apart from that, the only news released this morning was this:

ELECTRONIC LODGEMENT

Dear Sir or Madam

Employment contract of CEO

On 9 June 2005 Telstra entered into and released to the market an employment contract appointing Sol Trujillo as Chief Executive Officer with effect from 1 July 2005. It has been drawn to Telstra’s attention that clause 8.8 of the contract, relating to termination of the contract in the most unlikely event of a takeover of Telstra, is inconsistent with ASX Listing Rule 10.18. The inconsistency was inadvertent. Mr Trujillo has agreed to waive his rights under clause 8.8 to ensure that Telstra is in compliance with the Listing Rules.

If it stays stuck in this downtrend it looks like it might test its all time low around $3.90-$4.00 in the near future. Not looking good.

 

[krisbarry]

Re: Where will TLS head???

I agree Joe, latest predictions from many brokers agree too.

 

[ob1kenobi]

Re: Where will TLS head???

I agree. Already TLS is testing the $4-25 level and the volume chart suggests that the spike in volume has been people off loading the stock. I suspect that the downward trend will continue and will not be surprised if TLS tests the $4-00 mark. In recent times they have had more ups and downs than a Roller Coaster Ride at Lunar Park! I did an analysis of their chart around March with my Business Class when we were doing Financial Planning. Using any form of analysis, you wouldn't have gone near TLS then (or now)! The recent chart is attached.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Where will TLS head???

Does anyone have any quality info on the chances of them continuing with the div payments? The engineers seem to say they should be using the money for new infrastructure while the mums and dads only want the divs. No divs in future and this'll drop like a brick. Looks like the US boss doesn't really care much for what John Howard thinks.

 

[bonkers]

Re: Where will TLS head?

TLS) Telstra’s share slide
26-Sep

Telstra shares have suffered a major slide in value after the shares went ex-dividend today.

At 1245 AEST Telstra shares had fallen 4.6 percent or 19 cents to $ 4.11 in morning trading.

Analysts are expecting the price to fall even lower, with some predicting the shares could finish at below $ 4.00 by then end of the week.

The value of the shares have plummeted due to a 14 cent dividend payed out to investors today.

Shares fell last week after Telstra CEO Sol Trujillo issued a profit warning, blaming regulatory restrictions imposed by the federal government and a drop in fixed line and mobile revenue.

The profit warning sparked a massive sell-off in Telstra shares and sent the stock to a two-year low of $4.26, having fallen from $5.20 on July 1, Mr Trujillo's first day in the office.

 

[Yippyio]

Re: Where will TLS head???

A lot of buying support yesterday but it looks like this may have been people covering their shorts. Alot of volume was settled overnight @ 5.36.

Very nice for some.

 

[sails]

Re: Where will TLS head???

A lot of buying support yesterday but it looks like this may have been people covering their shorts. Alot of volume was settled overnight @ 5.36.

Very nice for some.

Option expiry yesterday and most of the overnight volume was due exercise of puts which explains the trades going through at higher prices. Yes, it's been a good run for the put holders!

 

[ob1kenobi]

Re: Where will TLS head?

According to Huntley's Telstra has: Current Assets $6177m and Current Liabilities $6382m. Using a basic liquidity ratio (current ratio) derived by using the formula CA/CL that would mean:

6177/6382
= 0.97:1 (rounded)

Simply put, for every 97c of Assets, it has $1 of debt. Interestingly the same formula is used to calculate a Working Capital Ratio. This means that, if Huntley's report is correct, Telstra has a short fall in its Working Capital. In dollars this is calculated out as CA-CL which would mean:

$6177m-$6382m
= -$205m

The attached Huntley's Report is dated 2 October 2005. Interestingly, Telstra had a similar set of figures back in March! Caveat Emptor!

 

[Yippyio]

Re: Where will TLS head?

Anyone wondering where TLS will acheive growth only need to read this article.

Foxtel now has 1.2 million subscribers at an avarage of $100/month this is equivalent to $ 120 000 000/ month in subscriber income, alone. In addition to subscriber income Foxtel is now attracting substantial advertising income.

Foxtel is set to dwarf the free to air stations, if not already.

By relaxing the cross media ownership laws the government will also pve the way for TLS to make more media aquisitions ie. Fairfax & Ten are both potential targets.

FYI


Pay TV gives thanks to football fever
By David Dale
October 17, 2005
Page Tools

As it celebrates its 10th birthday, the pay television industry is boasting that its total viewing audience has risen by 20 per cent over the past 12 months and that a quarter of Australian homes are subscribers.

However, a closer look at the way Australians actually use pay TV suggests the growth is almost entirely based on the nation's passion for all codes of football: all of the 20 most watched programs on pay TV this year have been NRL matches.

The Cowboys versus the Sharks drew an audience of 331,000 and the Bulldogs versus the Rabbitohs drew 325,000.

The areas where pay TV was supposed to attract viewers, like children's programming, recent movies and nostalgia, lost viewers between 2004 and 2005. (An exception was The Simpsons interactive, which was the most-watched non-sport program in 2005.)

The Disney channel, for example, lost 13 per cent of its average audience; Showtime lost 20 per cent; and TV1's audience fell by 9 per cent.

These losses were offset by big audience gains for sport and news: Fox Footy's audience was up by 37 per cent, Fox Sports 1's rose by 23 per cent, and Sky News gained 35 per cent.

The average total audience for all pay tv stations between 6am and midnight in the first nine months of this year was 372,000; the figure for the corresponding period last year was 310,500.

Foxtel claims to have 1.2 million subscribers and Austar claims 500,000. This means about 25 per cent of Australian homes are receiving more than 40 pay TV stations by cable or by satellite.

In September, pay TV's share of viewers, at 17.2 per cent, was the highest it has ever been.

Anthony Fitzgerald, the chief executive of the pay TV lobby group, Multi Channel Network, said the figures showed "the momentum continues to build for subscription television".

"This highlights the growing appeal of STV's [subscription television's] broad program offering, and the fact that peak television ratings are driven by more than sporting special events," he said.

However, the "broad program offering" is not what seems to be attracting most new viewers.

The pay TV stations with the biggest audience growth this year were Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports 2, Fox Footy, Sky News, UKTV, National Geographic, MTV, Hallmark and Fox Classics.

The stations with the biggest audience losses were the Disney Channel, the Cartoon Network, Channel V, the Comedy Channel, Arena, Fox 8, the History Channel, Max, Movie Extra, Showtime, Movie One and TV1.

 

[el_ninj0]

Re: Where will TLS head?

Correct me if im wrong, but Foxtel is only half owned by Telstra is it not?
thats leaving $60,000,000 a month already, plus advertising costs, plus infrastructure costs, plus maintanance, etc....
Sure they will still make a nice sum from it, but how much was their original outlay for foxtel?
In my opinion, Telstra is a dinosaur waiting to die out. The extinction is already in the process, just give it a few more years and it'll have had it.

Besides didn't anyone see that show on ABC last nite?, the world is going to end in 20 years, .

 

[Yippyio]

Re: Where will TLS head?

Hi El ninjo,

Consider the value to TLS and the other sharholders if they were to spin Foxtel off and list it seperatly.

In addtion to Foxtel consider Sensis as another seperate listed entity brokers have placed a valuation on Sensis of $ 10 billion.

Over the next few months we are going to be made very aware of the value there is in the Telstra assets and it is alot more complex then a few copper wires.

This bohemoth needs to be pointed in the right direction, hopefully with the T3 as motivation this is going to happen.

P.S. I missed the ABC last night, wasn't the world supposed to end in 1984 ?

 

[randomtrader]

Telstra (I hate you so much)

What are everyones thoughts on telstra, its seems to be a little unpredictable lately. I'm guessing 4.50 short term, but 3.50 long term.

 

[amohonour]

Re: Where will TLS head?

I think of AMP and its big crash when i think of TLS i can remember saying to my mife when they bottomed hey they would be a great buy but because of the once bitten twice shy rule have never really bothered with them could well be the same for TLS. still a long way to go before people will haqve confidence in them imho

 

[Yippyio]

Re: Where will TLS head?

I am certain that the eagerly awaited strategic review, soon to be delivered by Telstra will be very pleasing to the market and I very much doubt that you will see Telstra at these levels again.







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Disclaimer: I do not hold TLS. I have lost loads of money and anyone who pays any attention to anything I say or post probably will as well.

 

[Lucstar]

Telstra? Turn of the tide?

TLS has been in jeopardy for some time but it seems that its settled down now. The charts seem to have bottomed out and starting the turn around now. What's your views on this dog? Has the storm finally ended? Or should we wait till the privatisation is fully complete before the outlook can be painted?

 

[Yippyio]

Re: Telstra? Turn of the tide?

TLS has been in jeopardy for some time but it seems that its settled down now. The charts seem to have bottomed out and starting the turn around now. What's your views on this dog? Has the storm finally ended? Or should we wait till the privatisation is fully complete before the outlook can be painted?

All eyes will be on the Strategic Review, due to be delivered by Sol next week (I think it's next week, you need to check). If the market likes what it hears you "may" see the SP spike and start heading towards the government's price target for T3 ($5.25)

I currently do not hold TLS

 

[Yippyio]

Re: Where will TLS head?

TLS will deliver it's long awaited strategic review. I have no doubt that they will be saying all the right things, which "should" lead to a bit of a spike.

Watching with interest

 

[dutchie]

Re: Where will TLS head?

Don't write off Telstra just yet!

I think they did say all the right things yesterday - not too much bull**** and they bit the bullet on hard decisions.

Its got a hard and long road ahead but imo TLS will come good in the long term.

There seems to be support at about $4.00.

With the 28c dividend that equates to 7% yield (better than the banks).

I think they have learnt from other national telcos in the same position (market loss) and are going to slowly build Telstra back up. Will be a while before it gets to $5.40 though.