Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

TLS - Telstra Corporation

Re: TLS - Great buy?

Aden,

I added a few thousand to my long-term portfolio this morning.

I reckon Donald and Sol are likely to be around a bit longer than John and Helen.

Coonan worries me, I think she's out of her depth.
 
Re: TLS - Great buy?

That's two pretty significant down gaps on very high volumes. I would wait awhile until it formed a base before buying any, it might keep dropping for awhile

MIT
 
Re: TLS - Great buy?

TLS pays this year 35cents per share fully franked...next years payout will be 40 cents in total with special dividents....for long term hold..very cheap at present price when it settles down price will rise again...big buying by institutions.....not by small investors...TLS needs to have more overseas investors up to 50 % to increase the price..Australia to small to absorb this hugh amount...watch overseas institution buying..maybe buying allready..give away price for a company who produced over $4 billion $$$ in profit
 
Re: TLS - Great buy?

Here's the chart and you can see it has drop through a major support point at a very high volume. It might be a great fundamentally but technically the balance of probability is that there is no sign of it changing direction soon and buying now might be like trying to catch a knife.

I'd wait to see it recover or at least go sideways first.

MIT
 

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Re: Where will TLS head???

I think maybe that the whole problem with TLS are the fundamentals, nearly
half their money comes from fixed lines with little external competition but
the rest come from mobiles, internet etc which are all very competitive and
the more that they compete the more they hurt their own fixed line business- like a dog chasing his tail - not to mention the government chasing the dog.
 
Re: Where will TLS head???

Telstra will boost their share price for the sale. After that, its all down hill. I'd personally put this as a buy at around 4.60 and sell at 6.50. It wont get any higher than that. Increased competition in the communications sector, along with companies like IIN(iiNet) and Internode(argile communications), watch these guys when they float. Both of them currently have their own DSLAMS in telstra exchanges, which allows them to offer far better deals than Telstra would normally allow them to. Also, they have ADSL 2/2+ capability which gives them a huge advantage over telstra in the plans they can offer, much higher speeds, and better reliability.

:2twocents
 
Re: Where will TLS head???

el_ninj0 said:
Telstra will boost their share price for the sale. After that, its all down hill. I'd personally put this as a buy at around 4.60 and sell at 6.50. It wont get any higher than that. Increased competition in the communications sector, along with companies like IIN(iiNet) and Internode(argile communications), watch these guys when they float. Both of them currently have their own DSLAMS in telstra exchanges, which allows them to offer far better deals than Telstra would normally allow them to. Also, they have ADSL 2/2+ capability which gives them a huge advantage over telstra in the plans they can offer, much higher speeds, and better reliability.

:2twocents
At present the divs return now 8% fully franked
 
Re: Where will TLS head???

chicken said:
At present the divs return now 8% fully franked

Sure, but that doesn't mean anything when the company falls through the floor in a couple of years. Since the dawn of telstra, they have been ripping people off, wholesalers, retailers, consumers. They are basically in tatters at the moment, hence there rush to get a new CEO on the books to make them seem like they are getting their act together. The fact is, Telstra has had record profits again and again, and share holders will continue to expect more and more, and they wont get it any more, there is so much competition out there in the telecommunications sector that its impossible for them to get much more. There market share has been dropping year after year. Yet there profits increase only because they figure out a way to scam people with the services they currently have(eg, excess charges on broadband internet bills).

I have no doubt in my mind that Telstra's best days are over. Artificial price boosting is the only way they are going to be able to make the sale, after that, kiss your money good bye if you have any them.
 
Re: Where will TLS head???

I would not touch this share with a barge pole. New technology such as cheap phone calls over the net will soon blow them out of the water.
 
Re: Where will TLS head???

el_ninj0 said:
Telstra will boost their share price for the sale. After that, its all down hill. I'd personally put this as a buy at around 4.60 and sell at 6.50. It wont get any higher than that. Increased competition in the communications sector, along with companies like IIN(iiNet) and Internode(argile communications), watch these guys when they float. Both of them currently have their own DSLAMS in telstra exchanges, which allows them to offer far better deals than Telstra would normally allow them to. Also, they have ADSL 2/2+ capability which gives them a huge advantage over telstra in the plans they can offer, much higher speeds, and better reliability.

:2twocents
And you get heaps better customer service with iiNet too. Something that can't be doing Telstra much good.
 
Re: Where will TLS head???

I have periodic contact with Telstra technicians through work. They always say much the same thing, usually without being asked. Telstra haven't been spending anywhere near enough to maintain their infrastructure and it's come to the point where it's basically cheaper to just replace rather than fix it up.

On another point, does everyone realise that Telstra has thousands, probably hundreds of thousands, of pits in the ground. These are the things with concrete lids on them, usually oval shaped for the small ones and rectangular for the bigger ones. You probably have one near your house somewhere.

Now, I don't want to cause any panic here and I've been assured that they're quite safe if you're not touching them but they're made of asbestos. Any idea how many $ Telstra has set aside in case of compensation claims? They're not puting these in any more (they use plastic to make them these days) but a lot of workers would have been exposed over several decades installing them. There's an ongoing risk of exposure for maintenance workers too, especially those installing new conduits into the old pits since that involves putting a hole in the asbestos. Some of the conduits (pipes) that they run the cables through are also made of asbestos.

The big pits with 4 large lids commonly found in city areas are apparently made of concrete so are safe. It's the small ones that are the problem. They aren't removing them since doing so would create dust (which is exactly what you don't want to do with asbestos) and is a pretty difficult ($$$) task without disconnecting all the cables first.

So, no need to panic if there's one in your garden but I wouldn't be messing about with it. If you do come in direct contact with asbestos then I'm told (by a doctor) that (1) make sure you don't inhale it or spread it around where it could be inhaled in the future and (2) it's especially important that you wash your hands very well before going to the toilet since the skin in that region of the body is different to the skin on your hands and asbestos fibres will penetrate it which can lead to cancer. (Apparently many former asbestos workers get cancer in this region but it's somewhat of a "taboo" subject since it implies lack of personal hygene.)

But do you want to own stock in a company with a potential asbestos liability? You decide, I'm just passing on what I know.
 
Re: Where will TLS head???

I did read in the paper that fund managers are selling out of Telstra, could be the main reasons for the price drop.

I think this yank dude is spending like he lives in the USA. Kinda can't see our little Johnny Howard coughin' up $5 billion to increase services in the bush.
 
Re: Where will TLS head???

I regard my holding as part of "cash at bank". The returns are better. If it ever achieves some capital growth, good, but if not, it can continue to trickle in as at present. Unless, that is, it continues a downward path which I don't think will happen once the market accommodates the CEO's gloomy forecast which I think was possibly intentional for political purposes.

Julia
 
Re: Where will TLS head???

krisbarry said:
... Kinda can't see our little Johnny Howard coughin' up $5 billion to increase services in the bush.
Seems like little Johnny has a little cough - his cold may be worse - presently looking at $3bln the negotiations have begun...
 
Re: Where will TLS head???

I bought a few thousand more this morning @ $4.78.

Considering all the negative vibes proffered from the "experts" I read in the papers over the w'end, I thought TLS held up rather well.

Donald & Sol - CRASH OR CRASH THROUGH !!
 
Re: Where will TLS head???

"Buy in Gloom"
I think I will wait for a bit more gloom this time.
 
Re: Where will TLS head???

Rozella,

You appear to be the man who knows his dividends.

TLS is keeping her head above water today, despite the negatives.

In your opinion, how much is this result yield driven, versus other factors?
 
Re: Where will TLS head???

G'day waratah,

You appear to be the man who knows his dividends.
Ha-Ha.....I wish.

I have found that "The lure of the dividend, gives a stock a reason to rise", & thats it, nothing fancy about the dividend trading strategy.

With TLS, it is a big dividend when you take the special into account. I own it, but it is a "dog" of a stock. I have made money & lost money with it.....I'd say lost more than I have made over the years, & many a time I have said I will never touch it again.

Just my own personal opinion (not advice whatsoever), the only thing that I see it has going for it at the moment is the lure of the dividend, but not to stay in for the dividend, I will take what I can on the leadup to exdiv & sell, & I will probably still be behind. With interest it owes me 530.0 atm. I did what we all do sometimes & let fall below my stop.....it does not pay.

So you can see how much I like TLS
 
Re: Where will TLS head???

Rozella,

No, I was serious, mate. I like your stuff.

I added TLS to my long-term portfolio late last week and yesterday. Must admit, I considered the possibility that I'd be averaging out at around $4.50 sometime this week, having read all the doom & gloom from the "experts" in the weekend tissues.

If the new Chairman & CEO are unable to sort that joint out and give investors some confidence over the medium/long term, then Yes....I'll consign TLS to the kennel as well.

In the meantime, well bid @ $4.86 as we speak.
 
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