TLS - Telstra Corporation

[Dutchy3]

Yep ... and I went long on the close ...

4.75 - 4.85 shouldn't be to much of an issue in the next 4 - 6 weeks ...

 

[Sean K]

Looks like a more significant break occuring to me. I recently sold long term holdings around $4.40.

 

[Dutchy3]

Looks like a more significant break occuring to me. I recently sold long term holdings around $4.40.

Hi kennas ... Yes has the potential. When TLS does manage to put together a few white candles in quick succession it has signaled a more significant move in the past ... recent highs at 4.95 might now be at risk

 

[YELNATS]

I just heard on the radio, at Telstra's meeting today apparently about two thirds of shareholders voted against the new TLS remuneration package for the Mr Trujillo and his executive team. Those against it included the Future Fund who owns over 16% of TLS.

Despite the vote, because it was "non-binding", the remuneration package is going ahead anyway. This includes Mr Trujillo's package being doubled even though the TLS share price is now lower than when he started.

Isn't this the height of arrogance and disregard for the wishes of the owners of the company?

Makes you wonder why they bothered to put it to the vote at all ???

 

[prawn_86]

I agree Yelnats.

Im all for executives getting fat pay packets providing they are making the cash for the shareholders.

Sol is running a company how he likes without anyone to keep him in line. If a shareholders vote cant stop him i dont know what can

My partner was one of the people recently made redundant by TLS and the way they are going about the staff cutting seems to also be completely wrong imo. Not saying that staff dont need to be cut, but sometimes you wonder about certain methods...

 

[bigdog]

For those members that hold Telstra shares look forward to higher SP's after the Rudd victory.
-- out with the Liberals broadband solution!!

Any predictions on what the SP high tomorrow?

My guess is $5.00

Date----- Close Volume
23-Nov-07 4.63 18,221,736
22-Nov-07 4.63 30,167,943
21-Nov-07 4.54 36,548,812
20-Nov-07 4.60 19,159,077
19-Nov-07 4.65 30,120,418
16-Nov-07 4.66 25,092,195
15-Nov-07 4.71 24,642,451
14-Nov-07 4.72 27,718,147
13-Nov-07 4.69 31,087,080
12-Nov-07 4.65 44,379,962
09-Nov-07 4.68 34,222,206
08-Nov-07 4.73 45,185,762
07-Nov-07 4.82 40,492,129
06-Nov-07 4.83 29,038,808
05-Nov-07 4.77 29,601,364
02-Nov-07 4.79 46,246,721
01-Nov-07 4.71 65,367,689

 

[Rainmaker2000]

To be honest, I think the Labor win was widely expected and the actually effect on Telstra, the company, is a big question mark....

As for tomorrows share price, I think it would be ridiculous for it to jump substantially cause of a Labour win, but markets can be ridiculous in the short term......you are also assuming the market will know whether Labour is plus or minus and rise or fall accordingly, when history of similar incidents suggest that markets often move the wrong way in the short term...

Back to the big question mark, I do think Labour is a bonus for Telstra but only because they get to start afresh on new ground with the Government and Labour has already seen how the 'new Tls' will not take **** from anyone and will even endanger the relection of the Government......as Labour's first priority will be to get elected again, I think they will me amicable with TLS............

Also, Labour obviously is planning to partially fund fibre to node...........I view any taxpayer funding of commercial infrastructure as 'corporate welfare' and a free kick for TLS who will on participate on commercial terms.....Govt. will essential just be handing taxpayer funds to TLS in the similar to other 'public/private' ventures............

As opposed to others on this site, I'm a big fan of Tls long term plan and prospects

 

[Bill M]

This thread hasn't been visited for a while so I thought I would revive it. TLS has shot up lately mostly due to the ADSL2 connections now being put in play plus the forecast of more earnings via their wireless broadband network.

How do you people feel about the long term prospects of TLS now? Elections out of the way and the price has bounced?

I feel that TLS will continue to lose market share. I am on a new product right now called "Naked DSL" and this will surely make a dent on TLS profits. "Naked DSL" is a product that uses Telstra's copper, you do not need to pay for line rental. The 3rd. company uses this copper to hook up your DSL and get ADSL2 speeds on it. They also give unlimited free local and National calls through VOIP. I get this bundled package for $60 P/M. How can TLS keep up with this as the customers change over?

I hold T3, payment is due in May 2008 for the final instalment plus you get the free shares. Is TLS worth a buy and is it worth these prices? What is your opinions?

 

[Birdster]

This thread hasn't been visited for a while so I thought I would revive it. TLS has shot up lately mostly due to the ADSL2 connections now being put in play plus the forecast of more earnings via their wireless broadband network.

How do you people feel about the long term prospects of TLS now? Elections out of the way and the price has bounced?

I feel that TLS will continue to lose market share. I am on a new product right now called "Naked DSL" and this will surely make a dent on TLS profits. "Naked DSL" is a product that uses Telstra's copper, you do not need to pay for line rental. The 3rd. company uses this copper to hook up your DSL and get ADSL2 speeds on it. They also give unlimited free local and National calls through VOIP. I get this bundled package for $60 P/M. How can TLS keep up with this as the customers change over?

I hold T3, payment is due in May 2008 for the final instalment plus you get the free shares. Is TLS worth a buy and is it worth these prices? What is your opinions?

Bill, I agree that Telstra is losing a certain market share. They have major institutions on board though and an infrastructure that suits outback rural to the beaches.

Today I went shopping for a mobile internet dongle for my laptop. competetion's $29-2Gig d/load p/month vs Telstra $59 200Meg p/month. But people still buy Telstra??

As per topic though, they will/should adapt to meet and supply new technologies to keep on business as usual.

OZ post survived email. Blockbuster survived Foxtel. Both are still adapting to change as well as trying to promote new market strats just as Telstra is doing.

Agree?

 

[Bill M]

Agree?

To a certain extent yes but for me as a customer they need to pull something out of the bag, something even better to get me back. Another product is Virgins G3 get your home phone with us and get free internet product. They pay $60 a Month for virtually unlimited internet and free local and national calls, this is a good product.

My fear is that if TLS doesn't do something "mind blowing" or better than another company that they may keep losing market share. I am torn between selling T3 and making good profits now or watching it tank after dividend day. It's a hard decision because I hear plenty of people saying they will sell after divi day, what you reckon that will do to the share price? Although I'm a long term investor I am a bit worried about TLS innovativeness.

 

[Bill M]

More info here

"Chief executive Sol Trujillo has forecast earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to grow by between five and seven per cent in the first six months of fiscal 2008, up from earlier guidance of a three to five per cent lift."

Full Story Here

 

[ROE]

With the introduction of Naked DSL, you will see TLS going to lose rapid share of the line rental. Naked DSL started late last year and many providers are aggressively offer the services.

I'm one of the people in the process of going with Naked DSL and VoIP.
no more line rental.

Naked DSL is a service where you just have a copper line in your home just for ADSL connection but without
an analogue phone serviced so their is no rental on the line...well there maybe but at rate far far below the current line rental
maybe a couple bucks compared to $30 most people pay.

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Good to see some discussion of TLS.

You guys are referring to TLS losing market share......I agree it would seem likely, but the statistics so far show that TLS is actually gaining market share in almost all of its markets......this is not a joke, look at the graphs in tomorrows profit presentation.....if consistent with prior results, TLS is actually growing share signficantly in broadband for example, even from their high base...and killing them in mobiles

Even fixed line phone, TLS will likely have growth in the residential market.....growth........all the financial estimates are based on how slow TLS can stem the loss..

Everybody seems to be focussing on how these beautiful products like naked broadband and voip will kill TLS.......they do have the potential but the stats so far do not support that at all.

I think the difference between the two stories is simple: smart people beat TLS........as for the masses, they are just happy having the old fixed line, paying riduculous prices to TLS and getting locked into bundling contracts

People should take a fresh look at the TLS profit release tomorrow......everybody, everywhere seems to hate this company, it's management and its prospects......if you take out 'fixed lines' which should be pretty stable, TLS is very much a growing business with great potential

 

[ROE]

I check the figure tomorrow but from what I see in the last 6 months it's not great ..

Mobile call margin is being sweeze.

Google maps pretty much killed Sensis maps so I want to see sensis earning,
as TLS predicting this is a massive growth area for them.. I want to see if Google has muscle in and slow it down and eventually take it out.

Naked DSL wont effect line rental for another year I reckon because it relatively new and adoption is not that great yet but I be interesting to see toward the end of 2008 on their line rental.

I think TLS has strong market position and a massive moat, pitty they dont use it too well to their advantage and let people work around their moat.

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Agreed, they have not used market power well in the past....but say what you like about Sol....every major decision and investment has been based around product differentiation and having exclusive product.........my favourite is the telco cable that joins Aus- and US for internet.....there is a perfectly good cable already their owned by NZ telecom made viable with Tls traffic though.....Sol of course is building a new cable.....I think the press release was something like "TLS saves Australia from subsidising foreign companies."....NextG is the best example to date though

Sensis is doing okay, but not up to expectation....most of Sensis is yellow pages with the paper version actually going backwards last report

The Mobile margin squeeze is on the back of massive market share and subscriber growth and probably will continue till can turn off CDMA

People forget that, yes, emerging technologies can cost less with great efficiency......but funny enough, the existing players have a way of colonising the emerging technology and making just as much, if not more, profitable.....No sign yet that TLS isn't doing that.........For example, it not like News Corp has sat in a corner to mourn the loss of the newspaper.......instead they are going out making great returns on recently acquired digital assets

 

[sinic]

Bill, I agree that Telstra is losing a certain market share. They have major institutions on board though and an infrastructure that suits outback rural to the beaches.

Today I went shopping for a mobile internet dongle for my laptop. competetion's $29-2Gig d/load p/month vs Telstra $59 200Meg p/month. But people still buy Telstra??

As per topic though, they will/should adapt to meet and supply new technologies to keep on business as usual.

OZ post survived email. Blockbuster survived Foxtel. Both are still adapting to change as well as trying to promote new market strats just as Telstra is doing.

Agree?

This is hardly comparing the same thing.. Telstra 3g works while travelling all over Australia - the others are only in major cities.

 

[engo]

I feel that TLS will continue to lose market share. I am on a new product right now called "Naked DSL" and this will surely make a dent on TLS profits. "Naked DSL" is a product that uses Telstra's copper, you do not need to pay for line rental. The 3rd. company uses this copper to hook up your DSL and get ADSL2 speeds on it. They also give unlimited free local and National calls through VOIP. I get this bundled package for $60 P/M. How can TLS keep up with this as the customers change over?

At the moment other companies are getting cheap access to TLS infrastructure, now we have a change from a anti-telstra government to a pro-telstra ALP government I think things will change for the better for TLS

 

[Bill M]

At the moment other companies are getting cheap access to TLS infrastructure, now we have a change from a anti-telstra government to a pro-telstra ALP government I think things will change for the better for TLS

You could be right but right now it is all nothing but proposals.

"In a statement, Optus said that Telstra's application had "little chance of approval", believing it is "a desperate last throw of the dice by Telstra to distract the ACCC as it is set to hand down its watershed ruling on ULLS prices." This ruling "will finally open up last mile access to genuine competition", said Optus."

Full Story Here

 

[Birdster]

This is hardly comparing the same thing.. Telstra 3g works while travelling all over Australia - the others are only in major cities.

Where are you coming from? This is what I meant about losing a certain market share. Rural to the shores Telstra has it stake. And they are adapting to new strats. (now I am just repeating myself). Prices are cheaper for going non-Telstra if you live in metro areas. But users still go Telstra. Many are, and I quote you,again, sinic "are only in major cities" and that is where TLS needs to adapt. As IMO people are going to move from Telstra products to a cheaper, if not inferior, product. Price rules. IMO majority will pay less for result than demand quality at no limit. The "$2" shops in every mall sell it and profit.

It is no secret that Telstra is most expensive. But it still shows growth through adapting and advancing. Just as their competitors do. Soon 3g will be norm Aust. wide for all telcos. If you disagree, I would call that foolish thought.

All prediction and opinion of course. BTW not holding TLS (or any other telco for the fact) only stating for discussion.

My hero the naked dsl and voip; hopefully the fall of telemarketers at tea time. OMG, am I going to get bagged!

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Not too shabby a result from TLS.....not exceptionally good either....sp likes the result but unsure why...

Pretty hard to argue that its a declining business with 65% retail broadband growth, 13% in mobiles.....I was hoping PSTN would go closer to steady but you can see on their graph 2.1% decline is an unbelievable outcome in global context and in context of TLS few years ago..Residential appears to be in growth...Fibe to home will fix all that....

Since their revenue growth is tracking way ahead of 2010 transformation, it is scary to see what TLS will be worth in management executes on the cost side, as costs have always been the ambition......Free cash flow could be just staggering by 2010 and I'm looking forward to a long, prosperous ride on the TLS train.