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TLS - Telstra Corporation

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The following chart is the Incredible Charts Relative Strength Index for the past six months:



It helps put the recent volumes of share turnover in perspective. Snap shots of the price action for the days 12 April - 148 million, 13 April - 102 million & 18 April - 106 million follow, where the turnover volume surged lifting the daily average share turnover from 25 million to approx. 43 million.








With 356 million shares turning over in three days there must have been a lot of fund managers (as well as short term day traders) snapping up shares at the low prices that are now selling for a quick 4% - 5% gain.
 
nulla nulla said:
With 356 million shares turning over in three days there must have been a lot of fund managers (as well as short term day traders) snapping up shares at the low prices that are now selling for a quick 4% - 5% gain.
Click to expand...
Yes was among sold 2 lots out of 3 for a quick profit
 
ACCC regional roaming decision hasn't met the expected deadline, wonder if that bodes well or not for TLS.
 
Read in an article over my phone this morning that a judge overturned a legal action by TLS to charge more onto Vodafone and Optus if they wished to use her (TLS') copper lines. That decision was truly against TLS' interest ! Ordered TLS to pay the legal costs for Vodafone and Optus too !
 
I would just like to thank all the shorters that saw fit to push Telstra up to $4.45 on open today.
 
So,... Telstra got the advantage in the ACCC"s ruling announced today. The ACCC will NOT regulate mobile phone infras, usage, etc,... How much will this improve Telstra's earnings compared against if the infras are opened to all operators ?
 
WRiley said:
So,... Telstra got the advantage in the ACCC"s ruling announced today. The ACCC will NOT regulate mobile phone infras, usage, etc,... How much will this improve Telstra's earnings compared against if the infras are opened to all operators ?
Click to expand...

Improvement = 0. Negative impact averted = 5-10% EPS depending on which analysts you read.
 
skc said:
Improvement = 0. Negative impact averted = 5-10% EPS depending on which analysts you read.
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Going by yr reasoning, if negative impact has been averted by 5 to 10%, this would MOST CERTAINLY improve the EPS,....and the 2020/21 should not be so gloomy anymore,...
 
WRiley said:
Going by yr reasoning, if negative impact has been averted by 5 to 10%, this would MOST CERTAINLY improve the EPS,....and the 2020/21 should not be so gloomy anymore,...
Click to expand...

No it wouldn't improve the EPS. Most forecasts have the current ruling as base case scenario and estimated forward EPS as such.

For example, FY20 consensus EPS estimates are 30c (as an example). If mobile roaming was declared, it would have caused 10% damage and see EPS downgraded to 27c. Given mobile roaming was NOT declared, EPS estimates remain at 30c.

So there's no improvement to EPS.... the positives come from removing a negative sentiment, plus reducing the coverage and hence competitiveness of TPM's future mobile network.
 
nulla nulla said:
I would just like to thank all the shorters that saw fit to push Telstra up to $4.45 on open today.
Click to expand...

Nicely done nulla. I was also so close to buying it the day it fell to $4 but chickened out. Well done for following your discipline and judgement - great return!
 
A re-entry at this point is tempting for a longer term dividend and capital return play. However it may get cheaper yet?
 
nulla nulla said:
A re-entry at this point is tempting for a longer term dividend and capital return play. However it may get cheaper yet?
Click to expand...

Do you have a price level where you believe TLS is likely to move to over the next 12 months or where you will decide to liquidate your position.????
 
I believe it will come back over $5.00+. Telstra has the jump on the opposition on 4G and probably 5G. Wi Fi will ultimately be faster than and just as reliable as internet over cable. NBN will be a white elephant by the time it gets rolled out with any semblance of national coverage in its' retarded format. Consumers are going to be streaming larger and larger amounts over wi fi and looking to the network that can consistently provide the level of support. Consumers will still trend to Telstra as the major supplier that has a demonstrated capacity to perform. Their capacity to cope has already been demonstrated with the record amounts of data that were streamed in 24 hour periods when Telstra allowed free downloads as compensation for their outages last year. If the ACCC follows through with the proposed decision, imo, the rebound will likely be sooner than later. If the rebound takes longer there will be a few good dividends with franking credits along the way. I just see it as a win win for the patient.
 
If it drops back to the mid $4.20s (or lower) will you still consider your self lucky?
 
Since I still believed in the long term value of TLS, then I would try my best to go in at every compressed price possible. Yes, coming form this angle, to be able to go in at a lower price is lucky ! It would be different though, if I don't believe in TLS. I would have cut loss earlier then,....
 
Good luck. For the record I am holding a parcel purchased at $4.96 and I will re-enter if it drops below $4.30.
 
Nothing changes on the weekly chart.

The patterns are about as textbook as it gets. Impulse higher followed by a symmetrical A-B-C correction into the target area. A brave person would have reversed the short trade on the completion of the weekly bar at recent lows. Not me, but short trade closed and looking for a low risk entry. Price should bounce up toward $5.36 - $5.69 as a minimum.
 
I've stated that my expectations for EPS are in the mid 20s in the medium term, with a lesser dividend and contracted PE so I obviously disagree.
 
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