TLS - Telstra Corporation

[sptrawler]

My appologies, when i clicked on the link it showed a date of 2007, so as I've owned them forever just worked it out from that date.
Like I've said I tend to keep shares for dividend, and ride them into the ground, just have to learn when to jump off. lol

 

[sptrawler]

Area of interest if it turns up.

View attachment 71986

I'm sure there will be a jump up, I've just got to work out when to jump out jump in and jump out forever. lol
The dividend won't be cut hugely IMO, they will say we are witholding capital for a major aquisition, to keep the mum and dad investors salivating.

 

[sptrawler]

My post suggestive of a top was July 2015!! Not 2007

Actually going by your chart, if you had bought them in sept 2010 for $2.50, you would have just about got your money back in dividends, without counting the franking credits.
Now that is a real win.

 

[notting]

With respect to 'getting in,' earlier in this thread, I was calling 'em a buy at around 2.90, from memory. But that's history.
Fundamentally They no longer have their landline monopoly which is all they ever were good for.
Now they've sold the ducts, what's left?
Soon data will be vertically free!!
There is not going to be another miracle. I'd take the run up into the div or hang on till 2.50 if you want. TPM will have far better growth prospects from that point.

 

[sptrawler]

With respect to 'getting in,' earlier in this thread, I was calling 'em a buy at around 2.90, from memory. But that's history.
Fundamentally They no longer have their landline monopoly which is all they ever were good for.
Now they've sold the ducts, what's left?
Soon data will be vertically free!!
There is not going to be another miracle. I'd take the run up into the div or hang on till 2.50 if you want. TPM will have far better growth prospects from that point.

I would definitely agree.

 

[WRiley]

I'm just wondering - my average price at present is 4.65. At worst case, in the near term, if the dps is cut to 24c, I'd still be earning 5.21% gross, and if franking, it would be 7.45%. Is it that bad ?

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

any loss of capital or no capital appreciation is bad,

to think you can hold a stock for 5yrs, 10yrs or 20yrs with no appreciation is a poor outcome

 

[Boggo]

Last time I looked the EPS was about 13c above the annual dividend of around 31c p/a.

If they can keep a gap between the two they may be able to keep the divvy where it is for now and not drop it in the reporting season.

This keeps the financial planners on side and they can quote the fantastic yield to the Mum and Dad investors.

Next four weeks should be interesting.

Daily chart...

 

[WRiley]

any loss of capital or no capital appreciation is bad,

to think you can hold a stock for 5yrs, 10yrs or 20yrs with no appreciation is a poor outcome

I plan to sit it out by continuing to collect dividend, while waiting for TLS to turnaround and provide capital gain, ie rise above my average price later-on,... of course, the assumption here is, TLS can rise above my average price later-on with incremental earnings reported,...

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

thats what I hoping for also, very frustrating though

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Their customer service is crap.

All the fundamental and charting analysis cannot get away from that.

Unfortunately I hold some.

gg

 

[Triathlete]

I'm just wondering - my average price at present is 4.65. At worst case, in the near term, if the dps is cut to 24c, I'd still be earning 5.21% gross, and if franking, it would be 7.45%. Is it that bad ?

Well lets see $4.65 - $4.07 =minus -$0.58 on share price
$0.58/$4.65= -12% capital loss so far
-12%-7.25%= minus -4.75% return so far on your investment
does not look like a good return to me at the moment....and still looks to be going lower..

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

its no wonder people keep putting money into property, even leaving 1 mil odd homes with no tenants in them across the country

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

When one is running a portfolio such a SMSF, it is important to take in to consideration the long term.

Although I hold TLS at a loss I am happy with the divi.

If that goes there will be some cross trading in to other entities pretty quick and active trading.

All evens out.

I've had some wins and some losses.

gg

 

[WRiley]

Well lets see $4.65 - $4.07 =minus -$0.58 on share price
$0.58/$4.65= -12% capital loss so far
-12%-7.25%= minus -4.75% return so far on your investment
does not look like a good return to me at the moment....and still looks to be going lower..

Tq Triathelete,... appreciated your calculations,... at least I know someone is watching and helping to count,...

Well,... if TLS does not DROP the dpu to 12c immediately on the next reporting, AND the SP does NOT drop quickly below $4.05 moving fwd,... that -4.75% will be lower from the next payout for a start. But, mathematically, yeah,... I will need time to recoup my losses,... during which I can't sell at all. During this period of holding hopefully the half-yearly dpu does not reach 12c, and the SP does not drop too low.

 

[WRiley]

When one is running a portfolio such a SMSF, it is important to take in to consideration the long term.

Although I hold TLS at a loss I am happy with the divi.

If that goes there will be some cross trading in to other entities pretty quick and active trading.

All evens out.

I've had some wins and some losses.

gg

Yes,... I know this path,... but this only works for an investor who has held long enough, for which he has received sufficient payouts over the years, AND he has invested those payouts into ctrs that earned him more. The 'compunding' effect from the earning more will even out the cap losses,.. I have counted for some ctrs that I held-on long term, and the divvies collected actually cut down the losses when I sold below my Buy price.

There has even been instances too that the total divvies collected over the years and the 'compounding' effect actually made me gains after minussing out the realized cap losses upon selling !

 

[WRiley]

Sadly,... after saying all the above, I have not held-on long enough for TLS, and have not managed to reap sufficient benefits in time before the tide turns,...

 

[Triathlete]

Tq Triathelete,... appreciated your calculations,... at least I know someone is watching and helping to count,...

Well,... if TLS does not DROP the dpu to 12c immediately on the next reporting, AND the SP does NOT drop quickly below $4.05 moving fwd,... that -4.75% will be lower from the next payout for a start. But, mathematically, yeah,... I will need time to recoup my losses,... during which I can't sell at all. During this period of holding hopefully the half-yearly dpu does not reach 12c, and the SP does not drop too low.

Everyone has their own reasons for buying stocks and the returns they expect.Whenever I take a position I will always have a price I expect a stock to go too and a price where I know I am wrong based on the analysis I do.
If you go back through this particular thread their were many contributors who had called a low around $4.15 many months before and so backed the call to short the stock.
We saw it then bounce back up from their which was playing out exactly as would be expected based on EW so there was the next phase down to come, and also in a comment back in June 13th when the stock was still at $4.35

Like the look of this chart Boggo...

I am also looking for a move lower towards $3.95 to $3.75 for TLS....

Sure does....The move up was at the levels we would have expected for this turn for the fifth wave.

The other thing for me is that it is also starting to line up with my weekly cycles which shows we are moving towards a low between 7th July and 4th August which has got me a little excited to see how this is going to play out. Time will tell I guess.

Will it go lower probably after the next dividend.....Boggo has some great charts on this stock and is worth going through and taking a look if you have not already.

Yes, still playing the game isn't it. At some point though it will head off in its own direction, upwardly I hope for those holding.
If it continues to follow this pattern then there is another month of downward before it hits the next decision (yellow - end of Aug) zone.
It seems to be heading down a bit too fast at the moment so there may be a long period where it hold up above the round number support at around $4.00 or may run up for a while.

An interesting exercise if nothing else

Daily chart...
View attachment 71985

 

[sptrawler]

When one is running a portfolio such a SMSF, it is important to take in to consideration the long term.

Although I hold TLS at a loss I am happy with the divi.

If that goes there will be some cross trading in to other entities pretty quick and active trading.

All evens out.

I've had some wins and some losses.

gg

I'm the same as you, I will be jumping horse, very soon. Just have to check when the the next report is due.

 

[sptrawler]

My money is still on Boggo.
As I've said on numerous occasions, unless TLS comes up with a strategy, they will end up just another re seller.
They had the opportunity, to diversify into cross media, but were too busy pulling the t!ts off the cow.
Now they seem to be begging people to stay with them.
I'm lightening up, the dividend has to be squeezed soon.IMO