TLM - Talisman Mining

tech/a said:

Wouldnt get to excited this is a 1 minute chart.
Buying isnt from any particular large accumulator that I can see.

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lol, hey Tech of course the 1min chart doesn't look amazing, but try looking at mine instead,

My point is, this stock has gone up 5-6x over the last few weeks ie 20c to $1.20 ish, today was a bad weak day, what did the stock do? Did it fall? Yes but it held support at 95c only dipping below briefly and then shot up strongly to day highs on volume.

So my conlcusion is that given the huge run up over the past few weeks it appears that this is being bought by investors and not traders today which is a good sign IMO.

YT

I agree with your analysis.
The thing which is very important is the action of price AFTER an up bar.
If you have a down day is it supported by Range and Volume.If it is then there is supply (Selling) if its light volume then there is little supply and those who bought are holding.

Right now though we are seeing increases in range (Volatility) the first signs of a warning. Not confirmed.
But in on the first breakout ---your laughing.
Now--caution.Or on Pullbacks.Watch for consolidation.

YOUNG_TRADER said:

lol, hey Tech of course the 1min chart doesn't look amazing, but try looking at mine instead,

My point is, this stock has gone up 5-6x over the last few weeks ie 20c to $1.20 ish, today was a bad weak day, what did the stock do? Did it fall? Yes but it held support at 95c only dipping below briefly and then shot up strongly to day highs on volume.

So my conlcusion is that given the huge run up over the past few weeks it appears that this is being bought by investors and not traders today which is a good sign IMO.

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Young Trader, TLM is being very actively sought. I have been trading the run since 39 cents and it has been a lot of fun. This stock is not trading like your typical speccy that gets dumped on. In fact the buying depth has intensified and IMHO it looks set to break out to much higher levels. My fundamental view is that TLM is sitting on the "Double Bay" of iron ore leases and it may still be a multi bagger running from its current level. IF u read between the lines of the last Press Release they seem to be indicating four potential target zones that I calculate (very very speculative interpretation here on my part so please be forewarned) may exceed one billion tonnes. I suspect that the coming "deal" with the new investor will provide the funds too drill out a very substantial resource and I firmly hope that the SP will react accordingly and IF results are good then we might see some extremely bullish action.

Great to see TLM in the green when majority of my other stocks are a sea of red!
Sydneysider would you mind detailing how u crunched out the 1 billion figure? and what est SP would that relate to? I know your calc is only an estimate, but i'm still interested.
Cheers mate

sydneysider said:

Young Trader, TLM is being very actively sought. I have been trading the run since 39 cents and it has been a lot of fun. This stock is not trading like your typical speccy that gets dumped on. In fact the buying depth has intensified and IMHO it looks set to break out to much higher levels. My fundamental view is that TLM is sitting on the "Double Bay" of iron ore leases and it may still be a multi bagger running from its current level. IF u read between the lines of the last Press Release they seem to be indicating four potential target zones that I calculate (very very speculative interpretation here on my part so please be forewarned) may exceed one billion tonnes. I suspect that the coming "deal" with the new investor will provide the funds too drill out a very substantial resource and I firmly hope that the SP will react accordingly and IF results are good then we might see some extremely bullish action.

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Very exciting times for us holders....
I've been lucky enough to be on from the high teens, but most of my accumulation has been much higher as I've loaded up seeing that it really does have some serious buyers and quality.

One of the things that has made me feel so bullish is the tightly held register, and comparing the sp (still ridiculously low) with some of its peers who have many more shares and most likely a lesser amount of Fe...that's the bit still to unfold of course- but the map earlier up the thread from dj is a stunner for showing the loacation, quality of neighbours etc.
I'm hoping the news will be as good as we think is likely.
The investor presentation was very impressive....and if they have the 'elephant country' quantities of iron ore, we can expect multiples of todays price.

canny said:

Very exciting times for us holders....
I've been lucky enough to be on from the high teens, but most of my accumulation has been much higher as I've loaded up seeing that it really does have some serious buyers and quality.

One of the things that has made me feel so bullish is the tightly held register, and comparing the sp (still ridiculously low) with some of its peers who have many more shares and most likely a lesser amount of Fe...that's the bit still to unfold of course- but the map earlier up the thread from dj is a stunner for showing the loacation, quality of neighbours etc.
I'm hoping the news will be as good as we think is likely.
The investor presentation was very impressive....and if they have the 'elephant country' quantities of iron ore, we can expect multiples of todays price.

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TLM has just gone into a trading halt. Hopefully this is news about the "new investor" or assay results from recent drilling. Good luck to all longs

seems like the seller site is drying up again
does anyone know what we can expect out of this ann/halt

got in at 90c -so very happy already

drasicjazz said:

seems like the seller site is drying up again
does anyone know what we can expect out of this ann/halt

got in at 90c -so very happy already

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IF any of us knew what was coming it would be insider trading? Just chill the Perrier Jouet and get ready to fire up a tasty robusto. I am going thru a mixed box of various Monte Christo's, Upmann's and Romeo y Julieta's which are fun to smoke. If you don't like bubbly then have a tasty thirty year old Port. The bid on TLM is currently 1.42....good luck to all longs

sydneysider said:

IF any of us knew what was coming it would be insider trading? Just chill the Perrier Jouet and get ready to fire up a tasty robusto. I am going thru a mixed box of various Monte Christo's, Upmann's and Romeo y Julieta's which are fun to smoke. If you don't like bubbly then have a tasty thirty year old Port. The bid on TLM is currently 1.42....good luck to all longs

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Pack your bags and get set! Cause tomorrow may be the start of a wild CD-like revaluation. These drill results will be keenly read. I cant help but think that over the next 4 weeks a CDU move to $3-$4 is possible. There are a lot of comparables to CDU's move last year. The wording used by management in the announcement wil be interesting. Plus of course the drill grades.

Initial batch of results are in.. and they're as good as expectations.. New non-exec chairman from Jubilee as well coming on board. Monster in the making..
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WONMUNNA PROJECT - INITIAL DRILLING RESULTS CONFIRM IRON ORE POTENTIAL
HIGHLIGHTS
- 36m @ 58.84% Fe (including 20m @ 61.41% Fe)
- 24m @ 59.73% Fe (including 8m @ 61.28% Fe)
- 40m @ 55.70% Fe

The Company is pleased to announce that results of first pass reconnaissance drilling of the Wonmunna project, Pilbara region, Western Australia, have confirmed the potential of this area to host significant iron ore mineralisation.

Results received to date are for the first 48 drillholes (1,745m) in 4 incomplete drill traverses along existing tracks (Figure 1). As a result of this ‘opportunistic’ siting of drillholes, this initial drilling is arbitrary and very wide spaced, and was intended only to confirm the presence and nature of iron ore mineralisation. An additional 50 drillholes are planned for completion of the
program by the end of the calendar year. These initial results therefore represent approximately 50% of the initial reconnaissance drill program.

---

The Board welcomes as the new non-executive Chairman Mr Alan Senior, an engineer with over 35 years experience in design and project development, mainly associated with the mining and mineral processing industry in Australia. Alan has extensive experience at all stages of projects, from pre-feasibility through to commissioning and operation, for plants handling and/or processing iron ore, gold, copper, bauxite, uranium, and coal. Throughout his career Alan has worked for the iron ore industry. In the 1970’s and early 80’s he worked as a designer on major expansion projects for Mt Newman Mining (now BHPB) and Hamersley Iron (now CRA).

Alan is currently a non-executive Director of Jubilee Mines NL. Before joining the board of Jubilee in 2003 Alan led the team which completed the feasibility study for the Cosmos Nickel project and its successful implementation, followed three years later by the transition from open cut to underground mining. Alan is also a non-executive Director of Tanami Gold NL.

Alan’s extensive experience will be of great assistance as the Company looks forward to making the transition from explorer to miner.

Gekko said:

Pack your bags and get set! Cause tomorrow may be the start of a wild CD-like revaluation. These drill results will be keenly read. I cant help but think that over the next 4 weeks a CDU move to $3-$4 is possible. There are a lot of comparables to CDU's move last year. The wording used by management in the announcement wil be interesting. Plus of course the drill grades.

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I would hardly think that a first round drilling pass would result in running the fully diluted market cap up to 225 - 300 million.

In all honesty there were four decent drill hits and the rest seem quite small with an avg of 4 metre hits.

The figures that were thrown around a while back were based on an avg of 15 metres depth not 4. Anyway decent results for an junior but nothing to write to Twiggy about IMO.

I disagree DJ in terms of things being 'quite small' .. several strikes of 24m to 40m of >50fe is insignificant? During the initial stages, this is very encouraging results...

Marra Marra is a strike over over 5.5km. South and eastern end of Marra Marra hasn't even been drillled.

The CID of which you are referring to 'of only 4m' is just above the surface of the Marra Marra formation... and they indicate below, it's not likely to be the most prospective portion.


---
Channel Iron Deposit (CID) mineralisation has also been intersected, from surface, in several drillholes, often directly overlying mineralised Marra Mamba Iron Formation. Whilst generally thin, and of low grade, these initial drillholes appear to be in the less prospective ‘upstream’ portion of the CID.

It is of interest to note that the better CID intercepts directly overly Marra Mamba hematite mineralisation.

The Company remains of the opinion that the CID remains poorly tested by drilling and good potential remains for the identification of significant CID iron ore mineralisation.

You are surely overstating the point when you say it is worth $3-4 per share. That market cap is not justified when you look at what work has been done.

TLM now has market cap comparitive to YML and YML already has defined resources of 45 mt. Im just saying how do you conclude that TLM could have market cap of 225-300 million on 2000 metres of drill results?

Hey guys,

I agree with DJ we need to tone it down and keep things in perspective, TLM isn't going to $3-$4 in a few weeks, so just calm down a bit,

That being said, I think what differentiates TLM from YML is that firstly its ore is covered by 10-20m's of top soil whereas YML's is covered by 50m's, so the profit margins should be higher for TLM

Secondly, YML can only ever hope for 250M'ts max imo on their grounds, with a more realistic target being 100Mt's, whereas TLM have stated they could have up to 450Mt's with a more realistic target being 250Mt's, so the potential upside could be much much more

Finally its TLM's chart that gets me, todays trading is above the $1.30 resistance line I had drawn in, its so amazing how this thing just trades in channels, I never used to believe in charting 100% but TLM has made me a believer.


Will $1.30 now be the new techincal support?

Watching and waiting

YT
Yours are support and resistance channels or Zones.
Here are Regression Channels.These also hold---god knows why!

This is a 180 minute chart with an Alert from VSA software.

Hey tech,

"Zones" you say?.... I knew that! lol

What the hell are "Regression Channels" ?


I must say though TLM's chart and sp moves have been gob smacking, it just respects its levels so well, but why????????

Tech what do you see using a 6month bar chart like mine?

but why????????

Thats a bloody good question one which will lead off topic but will indulge just a little here.Ive asked and pondered the question for over 10 yrs,and have what I believe to be an answer of sorts.

The same question applies to
Trend lines
Fibonacci levels
Elliott waves
Support and resistance lines
Regression channels to name a few.

but why????????

Its my belief that technical analysis is nothing more than the analysis of Crowd behavior. The bigger the crowd the more predictable its behavior.
Lets take your "zones" where price moves between a top and a bottom (This also answers you question as to what I see.
At the bottom of the zone those already in the crowd see value,some get jittery and others buy more,others still join the crowd.
At the top of the zone the crowd is excited word goes out and at times those in the crowd wish to leave with a profit so price retracts into the zone.
At other times so many people wish to join the crowd they pay a good deal more and push price to another zone.

However the higher price moves (Generally) the more the disparity in the crowd with regard to value.Hence as we see in the chart now the zone becomes bigger and the volatility increases.Eventually a zone of value will be found.

It might be a bit nerdy and out there, but if you've read Isaac Asimovs Foundation series (science fiction), there's a concept called Psychohistory which deals with accurately predicting the behaviour of large masses of people. In order to be accurate though, it needs large numbers to work, eg mulitple billions of people!!

Surely that principle would have to apply with charting, which is indeed a measure of crowd behaviour - the larger the crowd, the more likely it is for the predictions to be accurate because the effect of individuals becomes less significant.

Does this work though, eg does a share with lots of trades/traders such as BHP follow trading patterns better than a share like TLM?? It seems from what you're saying, and the charts, that TLM is behaving very much according to these Zones.

This leads to a question of how large does the crowd need to be.
We cant tell this from volume as 1 person can have multiple positions.

There is a discussion touching on this topic here
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8741

A long and involved topic.
but one which I am using in a practical sence.
I can say that in both systematic trading And discretionary trading one can take advantage of the crowd,both to be in sync with it and often on entry and exit be out of sync---profitably so.

Well I know there's been alot of speculation as to who the mystery TLM investor is,

I like most now suspect it is Jubilee's main man Kerry Harmanis, especially since

1. Harmanis has just sold Jubilee and pocketed over half a BILLION Dollars
2. Harmanis's right hand man, Alan Senior has joined the TLM board,


But I just came across something that makes me go hmmmm, see attached recent top 15